Hezbollah device explosions raise alarm over Iran's vulnerability

For Iran, the most crucial demand can be summed up in one word: money. Both pragmatists like President Masoud Pezeshkian and hardliners like Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei need financial resources to ease Iran’s socio-political crisis.

While the US has shown a willingness to offer financial relief to Tehran in certain instances, it remains hesitant to support an Islamic Republic that could destabilize the region through its proxy networks or direct actions.

Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, a seasoned Iranian politician and former head of the parliament's Foreign Relations and National Security Committee, has remained one of Tehran's few vocal critics regarding its ties with Moscow. In his latest interview, Falahatpisheh asserted that "there will be no negotiations between Iran and the US during Pezeshkian's upcoming New York visit, despite both countries wanting a new agreement."

In several parts of the interview, Falahatpisheh fiercely criticized what he calls "Russia's treason against Iran," a stance he's emphasized since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. He specifically condemned Russia's repeated interference in potential US-Iran agreements, its contentious positions on Iranian islands in the Persian Gulf, and its handling of Iran's interests in the Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict. Falahatpisheh questioned Russia's intentions, asking, "What else does Russia need to do to prove that its primary concern is its own interests, not Iran's?"

In a previous interview, Falahatpisheh charged that "Putin is counting on Iran's irrational policy" of unilateral reliance on Moscow. Elsewhere he has accused Moscow of taking advantage of Iran's isolation while also pushing Tehran further into international isolation. However, he reiterated that Tehran's distrust of Washington is also justified.

The former lawmaker’s frequent criticism of Iran’s relationship with Russia could serve as a safety valve controlled by hardliners to balance their pro-Moscow stance. Alternatively, it might reflect an effort by moderates to highlight Russia's unreliability, encouraging Khamenei to reconsider or adjust his reliance on Moscow. By framing the distrust of America within this context, moderates signal their loyalty to Khamenei, whose foreign policy is anchored in skepticism toward Washington, while attempting to shift focus away from blind trust in Russia.

Falahatpisheh, like many Iranian politicians, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, believes that the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA) is effectively "dead," with any remnants likely ending by 2025. However, he emphasized that "the United States still needs a new agreement with Iran." He also warned that Russia will likely go to great lengths to block any US-Iran agreement. Ironically, Iranian hardliners—often described as far-right—continue to back Russia and its stance on Ukraine, despite their shared opposition to the West.

Individuals like Falahatpisheh accuse hardliners of "ignoring the country's national interests" and charge that many of them benefit from the sanctions. However, Iran's continued isolation and its reputation as Russia's accomplice could cost Tehran dearly as it has already ruined the possibility of a rapprochement with Europe. Iranian observer Kourosh Ahmadi says "Iran's current situation with the West offers a win-win situation for Russia."

Pro-Russian hardliners in Iran still have the upper hand in Iran's media landscape. Observers noticed that the state TV interrupted Foreign Minister Araghchi's latest interview as soon as he began discussing Russia's positions on the Armenia-Azerbaijan disputes and the shipment of ballistic missiles from Iran to Russia. The state TV anchor immediately said: "That is all we have time for in this program" and closed the show.

In his recent note from Evin Prison entitled “New Era or Mirage” , the former advisor to reformist President Mohammad Khatami has outlined a long list of fundamental political and social reforms that only Khamenei can authorize. Without these changes, he believes, no real progress is possible.

These reforms include ending the Revolutionary Guard’s involvement in politics, economy, and diplomacy and a revision of the Constitution that would limit the powers of the Supreme Leader and his appointed bodies.

“I believe that changing governments without a shift in leadership strategies will not resolve the country’s issues or ensure the welfare of its citizens,” Tajzadeh asserted in his note. He also expressed support for some of the recent steps taken by Pezeshkian’s government, including several appointments.

He also insisted that Khamenei must make peace with the United States and end proxy wars in the region and give priority to the country’s economic and technological development in the same way that the first leader of the Islamic Republic, Ruhollah Khomeini, accepted UN Resolution 598, ending an eight-year war with Iraq in the 1980s.

Khomeini famously referred to the acceptance of the Resolution as drinking a “chalice of poison”.

Tajzadeh’s note comes amid ongoing debates among Iran's 'reformists' about whether Pezeshkian’s presidency marks a ‘new era’ or if his ‘national unity’ government—which he claims has Khamenei’s approval—is merely a scapegoat that will bear the blame if the country’s deep-rooted economic issues remain unresolved.

Prominent reformist journalist and politician Abbas Abdi is the leading proponent of the idea of a ‘new era’ with Pezeshkian’s presidency. Abdi argues that Khamenei has accepted the necessity of change and insists that reformists like Tajzadeh should not make ‘radical’ demands that may put him off.

Here’s an improved version:

Last week, Abdi called on the authorities to release Tajzadeh, who has been serving an eight-year sentence for his political activities over the past two years. This appeal came after Tajzadeh was informed of a new five-year sentence. Abdi himself has been convicted of “spreading lies and writing against the Constitution” and is currently awaiting sentencing.

There are also those who argue that Khamenei did not allow Pezeshkian—endorsed by most reformists—to win the Presidency in order to usher in a new era, and that he had no intention of initiating fundamental political, cultural, and social reforms.

Instead, they believe, the Supreme Leader only wants difficult and unavoidable economic "surgeries" including increasing the prices of fuel, electricity, and other subsidized commodities and services to be carried out by Pezeshkian’s government.

According to Tajzadeh, these critics argue that everyone—especially the ruling establishment—will benefit if the new government succeeds in making and implementing "difficult economic decisions." They suggest that if the government succeeds, the Leader will avoid criticism, while reformists will bear the blame if it fails.

Tajzadeh warned Khamenei in his note that he must never think he can “survive through crises” by giving a share in government to reformists and by implementing the difficult economic reforms that he knows cannot be avoided “without fundamental political, cultural, social, and diplomatic changes.”

Khabar Online website speculated on Friday that former Security Chief Ali Shamkhani is likely to return to the Council despite reports about his son's involvement in oil trade and money laundering, as well as his own background that was revealed following the deadly collapse of a high-rise building in the city of Abadan in southern Iran in 2022. The owner of the building reportedly took advantage of his connections to Shamkhani to skirt safety regulations for the construction of the building.

Although the president chairs the Supreme Council of National Security, its decisions must be endorsed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei before they can be implemented. Khamenei typically grants the SCNS Secretary the right to vote, which positions the Council—comprising key military, security, and civilian officials—as the highest security organization in the Islamic Republic. Consequently, the head of its secretariat is considered a top security official.

Iranian media have mentioned several candidates for the position, including former Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani and former Intelligence Minister and government spokesman Ali Rabiei. However, President Masoud Pezeshkian has neither reinstated the current security chief, Ali Akbar Ahmadian, nor appointed a new head for the SCNS secretariat.

Since one of the key objectives of the Pezeshkian Administration is to advance negotiations aimed at ending sanctions against the Islamic Republic, appointing the head of the council is a crucial task that Pezeshkian must address.

Ahmadian represented Iran at the recent BRICS meeting in Russia earlier this month. However, for him to continue as Iran's security chief, he must receive an official appointment from Pezeshkian. Ahmadian, who succeeded Rear Admiral Shamkhani in June 2023, is a vice admiral and has previously served as the chief of the IRGC's Strategic Center and as a member of the Expediency Council.

Until 2013, the SCNS oversaw the nuclear negotiations. President Hassan Rouhani refused to officially re-instate Shamkhani as the Security Chief in his second term as President. But he stayed on until his removal in 2023.

Rouhani has said in his memoires that Shamkhani was his third choice for the post during his first term, as the first two refused to accept the job. He added that Khamenei did not like Shamkhani to become the security chief but Rouhani convinced him to accept Shamkhani. Subsequently, he replaced Saeed Jalili in 2013, during whose term of office Iran's nuclear negotiations with the West had reached a deadlock.

Before Jalili, Ali Larijani held the position but stepped down due to disagreements with former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The longest-serving security chief of the Islamic Republic was Hassan Rouhani, who held the post from 1989 until 2005, when he resigned and handed the position to Larijani.

Although many observers believe Shamkhani is eager to return as security chief of the SCNS, speculation continues about Larijani and Rabiei being the most likely candidates. Pezeshkian opposes Shamkhani's return, as Shamkhani is reportedly against nuclear negotiations, allegedly due to his involvement in illicit oil exports under sanctions.

Other candidates mentioned by the Iranian press include Admiral Hosein Alai, former commander of the IRGC naval force; former Intelligence Minister Mahmoud Alavi; former diplomat and IRGC officer Iraj Masjedi; and former Justice Minister and presidential candidate Mostafa Pourmohammadi.

The security cabinet of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed to add "returning the residents of the north safely to their homes" to the formal war aims of the conflict which began on October 7.

Israel also provided nearly 100 rapid response units on its northern border with 9,000 Arad rifles according to the ministry of defense.

Around 60,000 residents of Israeli border communities have been evacuated since Hezbollah joined the conflict in solidarity with Palestinian Hamas fighters. Tens of thousands of Lebanese civilians have also fled the ongoing fighting.

Each Israeli unit has been outfitted with combat and rescue gear, medical supplies, uniforms, and protective equipment, the Israeli ministry of defense added.

The initiative "is part of our policy to bolster border defense while enhancing self-reliant production capabilities", its director general Maj. Gen. (Res.) Eyal Zamir said.

400 of the casualties were in critical condition, advisor to Lebanon’s health minister Bassem Ghanem told Reuters, in an apparent major blow to the Iran-backed group which is set to ratchet up already flaring regional tensions.

Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon Mojtaba Amani was among the wounded but suffered non-life-threatening injuries, Iran’s state-run news outlets said. Unconfirmed reports in Tehran said his eyes were "severely injured" in the attack.

Hezbollah, which has been locked in escalating cross-border combat with its southern neighbor for almost a year, blamed Israel for the attack and vowed retaliation.

"We hold the Israeli enemy fully responsible for this criminal aggression ... This treacherous and criminal enemy will certainly receive its just punishment for this sinful aggression", the Iranian-backed group said in a statement.

The attack was a result of a joint operation between Israel’s Mossad, and the Israeli military, CNN reported Tuesday. Israel placed explosive material in a batch of Taiwanese-made pagers which were imported into Lebanon and destined for Hezbollah, the New York Times reported, citing American and other officials briefed on the operation.

"Over 3,000 pagers were ordered from the Gold Apollo company in Taiwan... Hezbollah distributed the pagers to their members throughout Lebanon, with some reaching Hezbollah allies in Iran and Syria," The New York Times reported citing officials. "Israel’s attack affected the pagers that were switched on and receiving messages."

Israel has not yet commented on any role in the incident but has repeatedly assassinated adversaries in combat zones and beyond in the past.

Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi condemned the explosions as an act of "Israeli terrorism".

The United States denied any involvement in the explosions and cautioned Iran against escalation.

“We would urge Iran not to take advantage of any incident to raise instability in the region,” state department spokesman Matthew Miller said.

It was not immediately clear how the pagers were detonated, and the apparent attack comes after Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah urged his fighters last year to ditch smart phones and adopt less traceable means of communication.

Unverified surveillance camera videos posted online by Lebanese users appeared to show detonations felling a man at an outdoor fruit market and in a supermarket checkout aisle.

Other footage showed what appeared to be a hospital ward crowded with wounded men and also the inside of a bedroom with a mirror and cupboard torn apart by a blast.

Fourteen people were also wounded in the Syrian capital Damascus and its outskirts in explosions around the same time, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported.

Hezbollah fighters have been a party to Syria's civil war for over a decade.

The explosions are expected to further fuel the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel that has rumbled since the group’s Palestinian allies Hamas attacked Israel on October 7.

Israel’s security cabinet on Monday upgraded the country’s war aims to include securing its Northern border, where Israeli and Lebanese communities have been evacuated for almost a year.

The Israeli military announced on Monday it had furnished border units with 9,000 new rifles and that it had foiled a suspected assassination attempt on an unnamed senior security official.

An explosive device found in Israel was equipped with a remote activation mechanism, a camera and cellular technology that enabled it to be activated by Hezbollah from Lebanon, the defense ministry said in a statement.