Iran did not include mobile launchers with the close-range ballistic missiles that Washington last week accused Tehran of delivering to Russia for use against Ukraine, Reuters reported on Saturday citing three sources with knowledge of the matter.
The sources - a European diplomat, a European intelligence official and a U.S. official - said it was not clear why Iran did not supply launchers with the Fath-360 missiles, raising questions about when and if the weapons will be operational.
The U.S. official, who like the other sources spoke on condition of anonymity, said Iran had not delivered the launchers at the time of the U.S. announcement about Iran's delivery of the weapons. The European intelligence official said without elaborating that they did not expect Iran to provide launchers.
Two experts told Reuters there could be several reasons why the launchers were not sent. One is that Russia may plan to modify trucks to carry the missiles, as Iran has done. Another is that by withholding the launchers, Iran is allowing space for new talks with Western powers on easing tensions.
The Russian defense ministry declined to comment.
The U.S. National Security Council did not immediately respond to a request for comment and the Pentagon declined to comment.
Iran’s mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Tehran denies providing Moscow with the missiles or with thousands of drones that Kyiv and Western officials have said Russia uses against military targets and to destroy civilian infrastructure, including Ukraine’s electrical grid.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Sept. 10 that Iran had delivered the Fath-360s to Russia and would “likely use them within weeks in Ukraine.”
The missile would pose an additional challenge for Ukraine, which is constantly adapting its air defenses to innovations by Russian forces. Iran's semi-official Fars news agency says the missile travels at four times the speed of sound when approaching targets.
Blinken said the missiles threatened European security and would be fired against short-range targets, allowing Russia to reserve more of its extensive arsenal for targets beyond the front lines. The Fath-360 has a range of up to 75 miles (121 km).
The United States, Germany, Britain and France imposed new sanctions on Iran, and the EU said the bloc was considering fresh measures targeting Iran's aviation sector.
The Kremlin at that time declined to confirm its receipt of the missiles but acknowledged that its cooperation with Iran included “the most sensitive areas.”
Blinken did not say how many Fath-360s Iran supplied to Russia or when they were sent.
Reuters determined through shipping data that a Russian freighter sanctioned by Washington, the Port Olya-3, made voyages between Iran’s Caspian Sea port of Amirabad and the Russian port of Olya several times between May and Sept. 12.
Fabian Hinz, an expert on Iranian missiles with the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said he could not confirm that Tehran withheld the launchers.
Ballistic missiles require specifically designed launchers in order to be fired.
According to Hinz, one reason Iran didn't send launchers may be that the civilian trucks that Iran modified to launch these and other missiles are not robust enough to operate in rough terrain during Ukraine's harsh winter. Iran modifies trucks made by Mercedes and other companies and turns them into easily disguised missile launchers, he said.
That suggests, he continued, that Russia could modify its own military-grade vehicles.
"A commercial, off-the-shelf Mercedes truck is just not that off-road capable," he said
David Albright, a former U.N. nuclear inspector who heads the Institute for Science and International Security, also could not say whether Iran delivered the launchers.
But he noted that Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, and other Iranian officials will be meeting with European officials on the sidelines of next week’s U.N. General Assembly in New York to test the potential for diplomacy on Tehran’s nuclear program, regional tensions and other disputes.
“It could be that they (Iran) are holding back the launchers to provide a little space for these talks,” he said. “One can imagine that if there are Iranian missiles raining down (on Ukraine) there would be condemnation at the General Assembly.”
But he was skeptical of any progress, saying he doubted Iran would make the necessary compromises.
Since 2022, hundreds of Iranian families have marked the beginning of fall by grieving the loss of their loved ones, who were killed during nationwide anti-state protests.
Each day has become a solemn anniversary of a protester’s death, as the uprising against the state continues to resonate deeply among Iranian society.
These families have remained in mourning, affected by the regime's brutal crackdown on protesters that followed the killing of 22-year-old Mahsa Jina Amini while in the custody of the so-called morality police on September 13, two years ago.
Amini was detained by agents for allegedly violating state-imposed Islamic hijab regulations. Her family has consistently asserted that the head injuries she sustained while in custody led to her death three days later at Kasra Hospital in Tehran. The UN has since held the Iranian state responsible for her death.
On Friday, her father, Amjad Amini, posted a message on Instagram to commemorate his daughter's birthday, which also falls in September. He wrote: "My beautiful, innocent, and dear daughter, my beloved Jina, Mahsa of Iran—today marks the blessed anniversary of your blooming."
Amini expressed his enduring sorrow, writing: “Even after two years, we continue to carry the weight of that bitter day, finding solace only in the fact that your beautiful name is still spoken with grace and purity. Your memory remains forever etched in our hearts and in the hearts of those who love you.”
Human rights organizations estimate that throughout the months-long nationwide protests, at least 551 protesters, including 68 children and 49 women, were killed at the hands of state security forces.
This year, while some families have held memorials in private settings, others have observed the occasion in different ways, as public mourning remains restricted by authorities. For example, the Al-Jawad cemetery in Nowshahr, where several victims of the movement are buried, was sealed off with chains, and public access was restricted starting on Thursday.
As the second anniversary of Nika Shakarami's death, one of the teenage protesters killed amid the anti-state protests, approached on Friday, her family reported that authorities had blocked the routes leading to the cemetery where she was buried, preventing them from visiting her grave.
On Friday, Nobel Peace Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi marked the second anniversary of Shakarami's murder with a statement on Instagram.
"The killing of 16-year-old Nika Shakarami, like the murder of hundreds of other young people and children, is a stark example of the Islamic Republic's crimes against humanity," Ebadi wrote.
The lawyer and former judge further remarked, "The government is attempting to render the pursuit of justice meaningless."
Leila Mahdavi, the mother of 16-year-old Siavash Mahmoudi, who was killed during the protests, marked the second anniversary of her son's death on Thursday by sharing images from a memorial ceremony held in his honor, seemingly in a private venue, on Instagram, where she firmly stated: "Your killers will face the consequences for what they have done."
Hasti Khazaei, sister of Erfan Khazaei, another victim of the uprising, shared a video on Instagram from a memorial event marking the second anniversary of her brother’s passing.
Accompanying the video, she wrote: “In the name of joy that was taken from us, stolen, denied, killed, and buried. In the name of the wedding attire you never wore, whose absence lingers in our hearts forever. In the name of the love that radiated within you, my dear brother. In the name of your sweet life that was cut short.”
As the anniversary of those killed during the uprising approached, the Islamic Republic has, over the past month, escalated its pressure on grieving families across Iran.
A renewed wave of repression, aimed at civil and political activists as well as the families of the victims, began in September. During this time, dozens of citizens have been arrested, summoned, or subjected to interrogation by security forces.
“The policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran has always been to resist the unilateralism of the United States and generally the Western countries, who pursue their own excessive demands and continue their colonial policies in a new form. This will remain our policy moving forward,” Araghchi was quoted as saying by IRNA, the official government news website.
Araghchi, who was deeply involved in Iran’s nuclear talks with the West a decade ago and in 2021, was appointed foreign minister in the new government of President Masoud Pezeshkian in August. The President, during his election campaign and upon assuming office, referred to a policy of engagement with the West, initially raising hopes that Tehran might be willing to adopt a more pragmatic foreign policy.
Araghchi, condemning attacks against Tehran’s ally and proxy, the Lebanese Hezbollah this week, made it clear that the Iranian delegation will focus on a diplomatic campaign against Jerusalem.
“In this situation, it is natural that the most important topic in our meetings on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, as well as in the sessions held by the Non-Aligned Movement, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, BRICS, ECO, and others, will be…the criminal actions of the Zionist regime, which must be confronted by the international community,” Araghchi stated. He went on to say that “It is natural that the crimes of the Zionist regime, especially those committed in the past few days, will be the main topic of these discussions.”
While the explosion of thousands of Hezbollah communication devices, which killed scores and seriously wounded hundreds of militiamen and commanders, has shocked the world, Tehran has so far refrained from issuing any specific threats against Israel. Additionally, more than 50 days after the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Iran has not launched a military retaliatory strike, possibly indicating the government's reluctance to escalate the conflict further.
On Saturday, President Pezeshkian declared during a military parade that “Iran's defensive power and deterrence capabilities have grown to such a level that no evil force would even dare to entertain the thought of aggression against the country.” He was speaking during ceremonies on the 44th anniversary of Iraq’s invasion of Iran that led to a bloody and destructive 8-year war between the two countries.
However, his reference to Iran’s deterrence power contrasted with many incidents of bombings and sabotage since mid-2020 targeting Iran’s nuclear program and military and strategic installations, widely believed to have been launched by Israel. The latest incident was Haniyeh’s killing in Tehran while he was a high-level government guest. The incident led to debates even in government-controlled media in Tehran about serious security breaches and veiled accusations against security and intelligence organs.
In a message of condolence to Hezbollah's Hassan Nasrallah, Araghchi said, "As I arrive in New York to attend the 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly, I consider it my Islamic and humanitarian duty to be the resounding voice of justice for the heroic people of Palestine and Lebanon against the criminal and aggressive Zionist regime."
However, Araghchi, echoing other statements by other Iranian officials, indicated a cautious approach to the issue of responding to Israel. “Regarding Lebanon's issues, it is natural that Hezbollah will make its own decisions and respond appropriately. Other matters will be addressed as the situation requires. The assassination of martyr Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran will not go unanswered.”
Ali Nikbakht, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Iran Power Plants Association, reported this summer's electricity shortage at 19 to 20 GW. He warned that if immediate action isn't taken, the deficit could reach 26 GW next year. Similar concerns were echoed by Hamidreza Salehi, Chairman of the Federation of Energy Exports and Associated Industries, and Hassan Ali Taghizadeh, Chairman of the Electricity Syndicate.
All three officials agreed that not only is it unrealistic to resolve the electricity deficit in the short term, but there is little hope of even sustaining the current level of imbalance.
Aging power plants
Nikbakht also emphasized the aging and deterioration of a significant portion of the country's power plant capacity. He pointed out that one major power plant has already halted operations for repairs, stating, “The spare parts for this plant should have been ordered two years ago, but that didn’t happen, exacerbating the electricity shortage.”
He further explained that while the total nominal capacity of Iran's power plants is over 92 GW, much of it is outdated. “Of the 15 GW nominal capacity of steam power plants, about 12 GW are over 30 years old. In the case of gas power plants, 2.7 GW have also exceeded 30 years of age,” he said.
As a result, 80% of steam power plants and 11% of gas power plants are effectively outdated. These low-efficiency thermal plants account for 43% of the country's nominal power plant capacity.
This aging infrastructure, combined with a steep drop in hydropower generation due to drought, has significantly reduced Iran's actual power production. Despite having around 93.3 GW of installed nominal capacity, the country's real power generation is only about 61 GW, meaning that 30% of Iran's power generation capacity is currently offline.
Growing electricity deficit
Iran should have increased its power production by at least 7% annually for over a decade to meet the growing demand. However, the last time this goal was achieved was in 2010. Since then, the country's electricity consumption has grown at twice the rate of its production. As a result, Iran, which had a net export of 8 terawatt-hours of electricity annually until the mid-2010s, is now facing a massive power shortage.
The issue is that Iran now faces electricity deficits year-round, not just during the summer. Since last spring, the Ministry of Energy has stopped releasing its monthly statistics. However, a report obtained by Iran International earlier this summer revealed that even in the final month of spring, the country faced a 5 GW deficit during peak nighttime hours and a 10 GW shortfall during peak daytime hours.
This deficit surged to 20 GW during this summer's peak demand and is projected to reach 26 GW by next summer. To put this into perspective, this deficit is 1.5 times the total electricity generation of Iran’s northern neighbors—Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Turkmenistan—all of whom export electricity to Iran.
With such a vast imbalance between supply and demand, coupled with ongoing annual growth in consumption, it’s unlikely that Iran will resolve this shortage within the next decade, even if it triples its investment in the power sector. The country needs $20 billion in investment just to cover the current electricity deficit, plus at least $4 billion annually to support the 7% growth in power production needed to meet rising demand.
The primary driver behind Iran’s increasing electricity consumption is the addition of about one million new subscribers to the grid each year, with three-quarters being residential consumers and the remainder from industry, agriculture, and commercial sectors.
Moreover, hundreds of millions of dollars are required annually for the maintenance and repair of aging power plants. Nikbakht noted that the annual maintenance cost for each power plant is approximately $3 million.
A critical concern is the government’s growing debt to private power plant owners, which has quadrupled over the past three years. By the beginning of this year, it surpassed 900 trillion rials ($1.5 billion based on the open market exchange rate or $2.1 billion at the official rate). This mounting debt makes it unlikely that the private sector will continue to invest in the power industry.
Government Deflection
Hassan Ali Taghizadeh, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Electricity Syndicate, recently warned, "With the current approach, we will face a 25 GW electricity imbalance next year." He also criticized Iranian authorities for blaming the public for excessive electricity consumption, pointing out that the average household consumption in Iran is not only below the global average but nearly half of that in Europe. "Why accuse people of being wasteful? Don’t blame the public for the electricity imbalance."
Statistics reveal that the average household electricity consumption per capita in Iran is under 1,200 kilowatt-hours, compared to about 1,800 kilowatt-hours in the European Union. In countries like the United States and the Arab Gulf states, consumption is several times higher than in Iran.
Blaming the public becomes even more misplaced when considering that 13% of Iran’s electricity is lost in its outdated transmission and distribution network, which the government has neglected to modernize for two decades. This loss is equivalent to 40% of the country’s household electricity consumption, translating into a staggering $4 to $5 billion annual loss at current regional electricity prices.
Additionally, over the past decade, Iran has failed to convert its low-efficiency steam and gas power plants into combined-cycle plants, which boast a 45% efficiency rate. Currently, combined-cycle plants account for just 39% of Iran’s nominal power generation capacity, while low-efficiency steam and gas plants together still make up 43%.
Meanwhile, the share of nuclear and renewable energy in Iran’s power generation capacity remains just 1% each, with the remainder made up by hydropower plants.