As Washington investigates a top-secret document leak regarding Israel's retaliation plans to Iran’s recent aerial attack, questions have emerged over whether it was the result of a security breach or an Iran-backed cyberattack.
Two US intelligence documents, meant to be shared exclusively among the 'Five Eyes' nations, were leaked on the pro-Iran Telegram account Middle East Spectator, just as Israel prepares to retaliate for the October 1 barrage of 181 ballistic missiles. The platform's account on X lists its location as the Islamic Republic of Iran.
In a press statement, Middle East Spectator said the channel had no connection to the original source “which we assume to be a whistleblower within the US State Department."
The "top secret" documents, dated October 15 and 16, began circulating online Friday, meant only to be seen by Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom. Several options are now being discussed, including internal strategic leaks and possible state-backed hacking.
Holden Tripplet, a former FBI counterintelligence official, told Iran International: “The leak, if done without official sanction by the US government, may have been intended to dissuade an Israeli strike or at least limit the overall retaliatory response.”
However, Tripplet, who spent 15 years in the FBI, said it could also be the tip of the iceberg. “There may have been other documents leaked along with those which would likely indicate someone in the US government upset with US policy towards Israel in general,” he added. “They may be trying to harm the overall relationship.”
Jason Brodsky, head of policy research at United Against Nuclear Iran, wrote on X that the documents, which had been US surveillance of Israeli military activity in preparation for the retaliation, “risks eroding trust between the US and Israel at a sensitive moment”, the documents “of high value to Tehran as it plans a defense”.
Speaking to CNN, Mick Mulroy, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East and a retired CIA officer, said: “If it is true that Israeli tactical plans to respond to Iran’s attack on October 1 have been leaked, it is a serious breach”, he too warning that future coordination between the US and Israel could be challenged as a result.
“Trust is a key component in the relationship, and depending on how this was leaked that trust could be eroded,” he added. CNN cites officials who have verified the authenticity of the documents.
One of the documents , which says it was compiled by the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, says it has observed Israel moving munitions around.
Another says it is sourced to the National Security Agency and outlines Israeli air force exercises involving air-to-surface missiles, also believed to be in preparation for a strike on Iran.
The reports also detail preparations of Israeli drone units, transfer of advanced munitions at Israeli air bases and air force exercises involving intelligence planes and fighter jets.
US President Joe Biden has said he will support Israel’s retaliation, but not an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
In 2012, a leak of Israeli plans to attack Iran's nuclear facilities drew speculation that it was a deterrence to the Jewish state which has also destroyed nuclear facilities in enemy states Iraq and Syria.
Brodsky pointed out that “there are many possible culprits: from a hack to a leak. The Iranian regime, with assistance from Russia and perhaps China, has been perfecting its cyberwarfare skills in this regard.”
Only last month, a US grand jury indicted several Iranian nationals and IRGC employees on charges related to hacking efforts targeting Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign.
They were charged with a conspiracy "with others known and unknown to hack into accounts of current and former US officials, members of the media, nongovernmental organizations, and individuals associated with US political campaigns”.
The Justice Department said the activity was “part of Iran’s continuing efforts to stoke discord, erode confidence in the US electoral process, and unlawfully acquire information relating to current and former US officials that could be used to advance the malign activities of the IRGC, including ongoing efforts to avenge the death of Qasem Soleimani, the former commander of the IRGC – Qods Force.”
The latest leak also raises serious questions about internal security among the most senior officials in the US. Brodsky added: “After a series of incidents that have raised serious questions, many people have been concerned about possible Iranian influence and infiltration in the US government, not to mention those with animus towards a key US partner Israel.”
Last year, US Iran envoy, Robert Malley, was suspended after what was described as his mishandling classified information. Malley was placed on unpaid leave and had his security clearance suspended, with the State Department still blocking all efforts to gather further information on the case.
Two influential congressmen suggested in May that Malley lost his security clearance because he had transferred classified documents to his personal email and cell phone, and the documents were then stolen by a hostile cyber actor.
It raises possible questions about the team he had around him who remain in place while the FBI investigates Malley.
Also last year, highly classified Pentagon documents were leaked online, once again risking relations with the country’s allies such as Israel, South Korea and Ukraine, revealing information about how the US spies on allies and foes alike.
Axios reported that US officials said the breach was extremely concerning for Washington.
On Sunday, Israeli officials were declining to comment on the matter while the country continues to fight Iran’s proxies across its borders.
The comments came during an interview with Turkey's NTV network on Friday, at a regional meeting in Istanbul.
Araghchi emphasized that any attack on Iran, particularly its nuclear facilities, would be seen as crossing a red line and would provoke a significant response.
"Any attack on Iran will be considered crossing a red line for us. Such an attack will not go unanswered. The necessary response will be given to any attack on Iran's nuclear facilities or any similar attack," Araghchi stated.
This latest rhetoric from Tehran comes amid escalating tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, Iran’s regional ally. On Saturday, a drone launched from Lebanon struck the seaside residence of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Caesarea, an affluent town known for its luxury villas. Although Netanyahu and his wife were not present during the attack, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed that the drone, fired by Hezbollah, damaged a building in the area.
Netanyahu responded swiftly to the strike, accusing Iran and its proxies of being behind the attack and vowing retaliation.
"The attempt by Iran’s proxy Hezbollah to assassinate me and my wife today was a grave mistake," the Israeli leader wrote on social media platform X. "This will not deter me or the State of Israel from continuing our just war against our enemies."
In his remarks, Araghchi underscored Iran’s position on what it sees as Israeli and American aggression in the region. He pointed to the ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, stating that Israel could not act in these areas without support from the United States.
"Israel cannot commit crimes in Gaza and Lebanon without the US. All the weapons used there are supplied by the US" Araghchi said during the interview.
The foreign minister added that Iran had not attacked Israeli civilian or economic targets, it had focused solely on military sites. He suggested that Tehran might not continue this approach if provoked. "We have not attacked the economic or civilian facilities... we have only targeted military facilities. Now we have identified all our targets there, and a similar attack on their targets will be carried out," Araghchi warned.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, meanwhile, has vowed that “anyone who tries to harm Israel’s citizens will pay a heavy price. We will continue to eliminate the terrorists and those who dispatch them,”
Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Esmail Baghaei denied Iran’s role in launching attack on Netanyahu’s residence accusing Israel of being built on lies.
“The Zionist regime has been formed on the basis of lies and distortion of facts. Spreading lies is the current and permanent practice of this regime and its criminal leaders”, the spokesman said.
Araghchi, participating in Friday's meeting of South Caucasus nations in Istanbul after a regional tour which took him to Jordan and Egypt, described the growing tensions in Lebanon as very worrying.
"The possibility of war in the region is always serious, and no one other than the Zionist regime wants that to happen. We want to reduce tensions, but we are ready for any scenario," he said.
These developments come at a time of heightened instability in the Middle East, with Israel facing threats from multiple fronts, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, both backed by Iran.
The drone, fired from Lebanon by Hezbollah, struck Netanyahu’s seaside residence, though the prime minister and his wife were not present. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed that a building was hit in Caesarea, an affluent town known for its luxury villas and ancient Roman ruins. Netanyahu’s office released a brief statement acknowledging the attack, followed by the prime minister’s vow of response.
"The attempt by Iran’s proxy Hezbollah to assassinate me and my wife today was a grave mistake," the Israeli premier wrote on X. "This will not deter me or the State of Israel from continuing our just war against our enemies in order to secure our future."
“Anyone who tries to harm Israel’s citizens will pay a heavy price. We will continue to eliminate the terrorists and those who dispatch them,” added Netanyahu.
Israel’s Foreign Minister Israel Katz echoed the prime minister's stance, stating that the attack "exposed Iran’s true face and the evil axis it leads." Katz added that Israel’s enemies "will pay a heavy price for any attempt to harm our citizens, soldiers, and leaders."
Houshang Hassan-Yari, a military expert, in an interview with Iran International, emphasized the gravity of the situation, noting that the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) has reached a point where it can launch such an attack. "The level of tension is rising," Hassan-Yari said, suggesting that this operation marks a shift in the IRGC's willingness to act directly. He indicated that the attack could lead to a broader conflict in the region.
It is not clear why Israel's sophisticated air defense system was not able to identify and shoot down a drone that flies relatively slowly.
“While this attack opens the path for a strike against Khamenei, the US can no longer prevent such actions to avoid escalation. Furthermore, no regional country would criticize such a strike. The involvement of the IRGC in Hezbollah’s activities has drawn attention to the possibility of a direct strike on Iranian officials,” added Hassan-Yari.
Mohsen Sazegara, a journalist and political analyst, also told Iran International that Saturday’s attack was carried out by the IRGC, which has assumed control of Hezbollah's operations following the assassination of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah. Sazegara suggested that the IRGC now has a direct intent to assassinate Netanyahu.
'Red lines crossed, Iran's regime closer to end'
Miki Zohar, Israeli Culture Minister, also said in a tweet in Farsi: "The Iranian attempt to assassinate the Israeli Prime Minister, even for a terrorist monster like Iran, whose hands are stained with the blood of thousands, is considered crossing a red line. The price Iran will pay will be deeply engraved in the history books. The end of Iran’s oppressive regime is closer than ever."
A spokesman for Iran’s mission at the United Nations in New York told the Wall Street Journal that the “action in question has been carried out by Hezbollah in Lebanon."
However, Middle East expert Menashe Amir believes that Iran may be trying to avoid further escalation. "Netanyahu’s remarks legitimize the targeting of Iranian officials," Amir told Iran International, adding that it remains unclear whether the focus would be on Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, his son Mojtaba, or other key figures. Amir also noted that the attack on Netanyahu's villa could accelerate Israel's retaliatory plans, potentially leading to action before the upcoming US elections.
Amichai Stein, a correspondent for Israel’s public broadcasting corporation, reported that Israeli sources close to the prime minister have indicated a response is forthcoming, holding Iran responsible for orchestrating the attack through Hezbollah. Stein tweeted, "There will be a response to the drone attack against the Prime Minister's residence, and Iran, as the one behind Hezbollah, is also responsible."
This incident adds another layer of complexity to an already volatile regional situation, with Iran’s backing of Hezbollah now more clearly in the spotlight. As Israel prepares its response to Iran's October 1 missile barrage, the potential for further escalation remains high.
Musk, who has become a prominent supporter of Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign, has taken a more active role in US politics, particularly in matters involving the Middle East.
During the event, Musk delivered a speech that emphasized the threat he believes Iran poses to both Israel and the United States.
"You obviously can't have people who want to slaughter everyone in Israel. You’ve got to stop that. Those people either need to be killed or incarcerated, or they will simply try to kill more Israelis,” Musk said, addressing the crowd.
Musk linked the threat to the broader geopolitical rivalry between Iran and the West. “And they want to kill Americans too. Israel is referred to as the ‘little Satan’ and America, we are the ‘big Satan’, that's what the Ayatollah calls us,'" he added, reflecting concerns frequently expressed by US policymakers about Iran's rhetoric and regional ambitions.
The event comes as tensions remain high in the Middle East, particularly between Iran and Israel. Iran's ballistic missile attack on Israel on October 1 and Israel’s pledge to retaliate have drawn international concern.
Following Hamas's October 7 attack on Israel, Elon Musk urged Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to reconsider his anti-Israel stance. Musk posted on his social media platform, X, where Khamenei also has an account.
He stated, “Khamenei’s official position is clear that the eradication of Israel is the actual goal, not just supporting Palestinians,” adding, “That will never happen.”
Musk has not limited his involvement to speeches. His venture, Starlink, has played a role in providing internet access in countries experiencing conflict or state suppression. Musk first activated Starlink in Iran in late 2022 during widespread protests sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini, a young woman who died in custody after being arrested by the country’s morality police. The satellite internet service, according to Musk, was a tool to help Iranians bypass their government’s internet shutdowns and access global communication platforms during the protests.
However, the operation of Starlink in Iran remains fraught with challenges. While devices are smuggled into the country, it is potentially illegal given the government's policy of internet censorship, and those using it face risks. Musk compared the situation in Iran to Starlink’s deployment in Ukraine following Russia’s invasion, though the scale of operations remains much smaller in Iran.
Once seen as a tech innovator with libertarian-leaning ideals, Musk has now emerged as one of Trump’s most influential backers. His America PAC, largely funded by his own wealth, has poured millions into voter turnout efforts in swing states like Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Wisconsin. His financial contributions, coupled with personal appearances at rallies, are part of a broader strategy to mobilize conservative voters ahead of the November 2024 election.
As the 2024 US presidential election approaches, Musk’s words resonate not just in the political arena but also in international geopolitics, especially concerning the future of US-Iran relations and the security of Israel.