Trump’s return heralds a dire challenge for Khamenei

Iran has pledged retaliation for the Israeli air attacks on its missile sites on October 26, the latest direct confrontation between the regional arch-foes.

Capable of carrying large loads of munitions, the B52 deployment shown by imagery from Planet Labs indicates the United States is pushing its most powerful air assets even closer to Iran.

“All six USAF B-52 bombers at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. Great image from today via our friends at Planet Labs,” Hans Kristensen, Director of Nuclear Information Project, said on X.

The US has already deployed over 100 troops in addition to the THAAD missile interceptor system and dozens of fighter jets for possible interceptions.

As Iran’s Houthi militia in Yemen continues its blockade of the Red Sea region, US B52s recently bombed underground targets there.

Last month, Israel’s hours-long aerial bombardment destroyed large swathes of Iran’s air defenses, although there have been indications that the next strike could come from Iraq, suggesting a mass drone attack while the largest ballistic missiles remain in Iran. However, the Iraqi militia has missile and ballistic capabilities.

Haaretz reported that at least 12 F-15E strike fighters are bound to Jordan to build up defenses for US allies in the region following Israel's assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in an air strike in September.

The F-15Es deployment earlier “helped (Jordan) – along with the air force of Israel and other nations – to intercept the first Iranian attack on Israel on April 13, which included dozens of cruise missiles and drones, along with ballistic missiles launched at Israel,” Haaretz wrote.

After the assassination of Hezbollah leader Nasrallah in September, US Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, order the USS Lincoln to stay in the region to deter Iran from an attack following Nasrallah's killing.

Additional squadrons have also since been deployed and several American missile destroyers, capable of intercepting ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones, remain stationed in the Red Sea and the Mediterranean.

Israel and Iran's war of attrition broke out after a years-long shadow war in April when Iran launched an inaugural attack on the Jewish state. In retaliation for an alleged Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Syria, it has led to a series of direct attacks between the two archenemies.

Sit-ins and strikes were seen across multiple cities protesting what nurses described as a government failure to address their demands to raise salaries, pay delayed wages, and improve working conditions.

The situation reflects years of unmet promises, with wage delays now stretching up to six months. One nurse from Kermanshah, speaking to Etemad newspaper, said that many colleagues have been forced to leave public healthcare for private sector jobs or to emigrate.

"There have been no improvements for us in the past three months," she said, highlighting that 18 of her 300 colleagues have left the hospital this year alone.

A video circulated on social media showed that nurses at Khomeini Hospital in Urmia held a protest on Thursday, with nurses chanting, "We've only heard promises; we've seen no action."

Mahmoud Amidi, a member of the Nurse House non-profit society, criticized security crackdowns saying some had been suspended for participating in protests or voicing concerns on social media.

"The actions taken against protesting nurses are unjust," he said, adding that such suspensions only worsen the existing nursing shortage.

Amidi said the impact of low pay and heavy workloads is having a ripple effect on the healthcare system, already at breaking point. “Who will stay in this profession for just 110 to 120 million rials ($150–$170) per month?”, he said, at least one third of Iranians already pushed below the poverty line.

The escalating protests come amid a reported shortage of 100,000 nurses across Iran’s health system, even as 50,000 trained nurses remain unemployed. Mohammad Sharifi-Moghaddam, Secretary-General of the Nursing House, warned that unless systemic issues are addressed, newly recruited nurses will likely leave the profession.

In recent months, healthcare staff have organized protests in nearly 50 cities, demanding changes to wages, workload, and working conditions. In August, a strike saw participation from nurses at 70 hospitals across Iran, a protest that lasted over a month. Since then, some 1,500 nurses have reportedly left their jobs, with 500 emigrating abroad.

As protests continue to spread across Iran’s hospitals, healthcare workers are pressing for concrete actions to address their demands. Representatives from the nursing community have warned that if conditions do not improve, strikes and other protests will likely intensify.

Former top State Department official Brian Hook was the target of an Iranian assassination attempt according to the FBI, leading to a beefed up security detail from the US secret service.

Hook is now expected to lead Trump’s transition team at the state department, CNN reported citing three sources familiar with the matter. Politico and the Guardian confirmed the reports.

Departing office in 2020, Hook had held out hope of diplomatic success over Iran's disputed nuclear program despite Trump’s departure from an international deal aimed at checking Tehran's progress toward a bomb.

Hook championed Trump’s heavy sanctions which hit Iran's economy and the government's finances as Trump tried to squeeze the country into submission.

“Sometimes it’s the journey and sometimes it’s the destination. In the case of our Iran strategy, it’s both. We would like a new deal with the regime. But in the meantime, our pressure has collapsed their finances,” he told the New York Times on his departure.

“By almost every metric, the regime and its terrorist proxies are weaker than three and a half years ago. Deal or no deal, we have been very successful,” he added. Iran and its armed allies across the region have been locked in conflict with US ally Israel and the administration of US President Joe Biden winds down.

Trump’s comeback has been met with caution in Iran and could mean the return of sanctions and deeper conflict.

“For Iran, it means one thing, maximum pressure,” said Jonathan Schanzer, senior vice president for research at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.

In addition to sanctions and withdrawing from the nuclear deal, Trump risked Iranian retaliation to assassinate Qassem Soleimani, a top Iranian military commander who had led the Islamic Republic's foreign military operations.

The drone strike which killed him in Iraq, earned Trump and his aides lasting enmity from Tehran and put Hook alongside them on an Iranian kill list, according to US law enforcement.

In March, the FBI announced it was seeking an Iranian national accused of plotting the killings of current and former US officials, including Hook.

Jason Brodsky, policy director at United Against a Nuclear Iran, told Iran International: “Personnel is policy and I think Brian heading transition efforts at the State Department is a signal that the incoming Trump administration will be reassessing US Iran policy and reviving a maximum pressure approach, which was very successful.”

Hook’s legacy leaves Iran experts such as Brodsky open to his return, while the State Department continues to put out fires from last year’s abrupt dismissal of Iran envoy Robert Malley, who accused of mishandling secret files on Iran. Details remain undisclosed amid multiple investigations, including by the FBI.

“Brian led a creative and strong Iran team when he was US special representative, and I'm pleased to see he will be involved in the transition,” Brodsky added.

Reuel Marc Gerecht, a former Iranian-targets officer in the CIA, was more cautious, however. He told Iran International: "Doing the transition isn’t doing Iran. I assume that Brian, if he is in charge of Iran policy at State [Department] would advocate what he advocated last time round. The most important questions about the nuclear program would be decided in the Oval Office."

Along with Hook, Politico reported the return of other hawks including Mark Paoletta coming in to lead transition plans for the Justice Department and former Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer dubbed to head up Trump’s economic team.

All stressed that the foundation for any governmental change in Iran rests in the hands of the Iranian people, not external powers.

Their reactions were collected through anonymous direct messages to Iran International via social media platforms.

Many Iranians opposed to the Islamic Republic have expressed hope on social media that Trump will reinstate his tough stance on the Islamic government, intensifying economic and other pressures that could weaken the ruling establishment—and possibly even lead to its overthrow.

Viewers refrained from revealing their identities, citing concerns over the Islamic Republic’s recent announcement criminalizing the sharing of images, text, or audio with foreign media. Under those directives, such actions could result in prison sentences ranging from one to ten years and could be classified as "moharebeh," or “waging war against God,” a charge that could carry the death penalty​.

One person said Trump’s victory is "very helpful to the people of Iran, but ultimately, we are the ones who must overthrow the Islamic Republic; no government or country in the world prioritizes our interests over its own."

Another expressed that with Democrats leaving office, the pressure on the Iranian government might increase, potentially creating "an opportunity for the Iranian people to make a move." However, they warned the system may seek compromises to safeguard power, adding: "We could see another deal with Trump, which would not benefit the Iranian people."

While Trump's previous term saw him exit the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and pursue a maximum pressure approach, a softer approach by the Biden administration led to increased oil revenues for the government.

Some Iran International viewers questioned the faith placed in Trump’s policies, noting that American leaders act in the interests of their own citizens. "Trump, Biden, etc., all think about their own people," one viewer remarked, challenging the assumption that Trump’s policies would favor Iran’s population.

Trump’s campaign also stressed his intent to prevent Iran from advancing its nuclear program, a stance that resonated with some viewers who voiced confidence in a US leader with a firm anti-Iranian government stance.

"We are certainly happy with Trump’s election; after all, he has an anti-cleric, anti-terrorism stance," one Iranian said, referencing Trump’s past order targeting Qasem Soleimani, a high-ranking Iranian commander.

The head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, Mohammad Eslami, affirmed that Iran’s nuclear program would continue independently of US politics. “Our program is not affected by any comings and goings in the US,” he said.

As the dollar exchange rate climbed to over 710,000 rials in Iranian markets following Trump’s win, viewers’ opinions remained divided, with some seeing his return as a potential shift toward political upheaval in Iran, while others stressed the need for internally driven change.

The reaction among Iran International’s audience illustrates the complex spectrum of perspectives within the country, where political developments abroad intersect with deep-rooted aspirations for change — a change many believe only Iranians can ultimately achieve.

"It does not matter to us who won the US election because our country and system rely on our internal strength and a proud, great nation," Pezeshkian said in his first response to Donald Trump's victory in the US election.

He emphasized that his government’s priority is strengthening ties with Islamic and neighboring countries, insisted that his administration would not adopt a “closed or limited approach” toward expanding relations with other nations.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry, on the other hand, responded cautiously on Thursday to US President-Elect Donald Trump’s victory, reflecting on past US policies and stressing that Tehran would judge the new administration by its actions.

As Trump prepares to return to the White House as the 47th president, a spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry expressed Tehran’s cautious stance, saying, “We have had very bitter experiences with the past policies and approaches of various US administrations.”

In a statement, ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said the actions of the US government will be the ultimate benchmark for Iran. "What matters to Iran and serves as a criterion for evaluation is the performance of the US government," he added.

Trump’s victory, confirmed with 292 electoral votes, marks his return to the presidency after a four-year hiatus, a win that could bring stricter enforcement of sanctions on Iran, initially imposed after his first administration withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal. During his previous term, Trump’s maximum pressure policy aimed to cripple Iran’s oil revenue, escalating economic strain on Tehran.

Baghaei went on to say that the US election is solely a decision by the American people, adding, “Now, the American people have made their choice.” He suggested that elections offer a chance for the US to reconsider its approach toward Iran, cautioning that Iran remains attentive to actions, not promises.

The reaction from Tehran was followed by a belligerent statement from a hardline member of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, who issued a warning to Trump, calling on the US to withdraw its military forces from the Middle East.

"We tell Trump, the gambler and killer, to gather CENTCOM’s dogs from West Asia before it’s too late and focus on his own deep internal crises," said Mojtaba Zarei, referring to the US Central Command’s presence in the region.

Trump's return to office has reignited speculation over tougher US policies on Iran next year. The Biden administration had somewhat softened Trump’s “maximum pressure” approach, aiming for a diplomatic solution. This approach saw little progress until October 2023, when Iran’s ally Hamas launched an attack on Israel, leading to over a year of conflict in the region.