Iran denies involvement in plot to kill Trump, offers him olive branch

"America has benefited from an influx of very talented Iranians," Elon Musk said in a Saturday post on X, the platform he acquired for $44 billion in October 2022.

He made the remarks in reply to a personal story shared by Farzad Mesbahi, an X user born to Iranian immigrants who recounted the challenges his family faced after moving to the US and reflected on his evolving perspective on the future during the Trump era.

Exiled Iranian crown prince, Reza Pahlavi, confirmed Musk's statement, saying "Iranians have built some of America’s greatest companies."

"They can also play a transformational role in their home country by helping rebuild a prosperous Iran after the fall of the Islamic Republic. That new Iran will benefit its people, America, and the world," the prince said in a post on his X account.

Musk's praise of Iranian immigrants comes amid increasing uncertainty about the incoming Trump administration's measures against immigrants.

Trump made immigration a central focus of his campaign, pledging to establish what he terms "unprecedented order" at the southern border and initiate the largest mass deportation of undocumented immigrants in the nation’s history on his first day in office.

During his campaign, Trump labeled immigration as a crisis and pledged to act quickly to enforce a range of controversial policies aimed at cracking down on illegal immigration and limiting new arrivals.

“We are going to fix our borders. … We want people to come back in, but... they have to come in legally,” Trump said during his victory speech in Florida on Tuesday.

Back in March 2017, Trump signed the Executive Order 13780, better known as the Muslim Ban, which imposed restrictions on the travel of people from six majority-Muslim countries including Iran. The travel ban set off mass confusion at airports and even the agencies in charge of implementing it, as they did not know how the order will affect US green card holders and people who hold dual citizenship.

As winter nears, Iran faces an escalating energy crisis that has forced the government into tough decisions. After enduring summer blackouts from surging electricity demand, Iran now faces a natural gas shortage that could disrupt winter power supplies. With dwindling options, the administration has outlined a controversial plan to either impose blackouts or turn to mazut, a high-pollution fuel source that risks further air pollution.

The government issued a directive on November 3 to halt mazut burning at major plants in Arak, Karaj, and Isfahan, hoping to reduce health hazards in densely populated areas. Yet, with mazut still being used in other parts of the country, concerns persist about air quality and its impact on public health.

Economic pressures on Iran’s industry

The energy shortages have placed Iran’s industrial sector under strain, as frequent blackouts disrupt production and increase costs. In August, the government diverted electricity from industrial clients to meet household needs, causing substantial losses in sectors such as automotive and cement manufacturing. According to Saber Parnian, head of the Industry, Mining, and Trade Organization in West Azarbaijan, frequent power cuts have doubled production costs for cement, while MP Mansour Alimardani described the blackouts as devastating for job stability and business operations.

With cold weather driving up household energy demands, Iranian industries are again feeling the pinch. Gas restrictions this year began earlier than usual, leaving sectors like cement production struggling to maintain output as costs rise.

Environmental and health costs of mazut use

Reliance on mazut has raised alarm among environmental and health experts, given its high levels of sulfur, which are well above global standards for fuel oils. Environmental expert Masoud Tajrishi highlighted the risks in an interview with Rouydad24 website, adding that “Mazut retains hazardous elements from crude oil. When burned, it increases particulate matter, leading to respiratory problems and severe health risks.”

Although Iran’s ministry of energy has expressed concerns over mazut’s environmental effects, it faces limited options as gas supplies continue to fall short of demand.

Reliance on Turkmen gas imports

Iran’s reliance on natural gas imports from Turkmenistan to support its northern regions has exacerbated the crisis. An unresolved debt dispute has blocked Turkmenistan from resuming gas exports, leading to fears that residents in northern provinces could be left without sufficient heating this winter.

During a recent cabinet meeting, President Pezeshkian acknowledged the financial hurdles in negotiating with Turkmenistan, noting that payment issues have hampered gas imports in previous winters as well.

Systemic failures and calls for reform

Energy analysts argue that Iran’s crisis stems from years of underinvestment and resource mismanagement. Energy expert Narsi Ghorban estimates that Iran’s infrastructure requires a $250 billion overhaul to meet its energy needs.

“Yet no progress has been made on this front,” Ghorban added, indicating little confidence in swift reforms.

Hashem Oraei, a university professor, in an interview with Aftab News warned that the energy sector’s challenges could leave Iran facing blackouts reminiscent of those in Cuba if solutions are not found.

"Nationwide blackouts like in Cuba and a return to the era of waiting in line for oil and burning wood are not just predictions but something inevitable," he said.

Tajrishi also stressed the need for systemic reforms, citing the Clean Air Act, which requires upgrades to energy systems to reduce consumption, particularly in regions at the end of the gas network. “Reducing household energy use by even 15% could stabilize supplies and lessen the need for mazut,” he said.

With planned blackouts set to begin, Iran’s energy crisis highlights a need for reform. Pezeshkian’s administration now faces mounting pressure to balance energy access with health and environmental concerns as winter approaches.

DeFFI, a non-profit organization dedicated to protecting media freedoms, noted that the government’s restrictions on information access have intensified during the Pezeshkian administration.

“In the first 100 days of Masoud Pezeshkian’s presidency, not only was there no significant change in the indicators of press freedom in Iran, but organized disruptions to free information continued, patterns of suppressing freedom of expression were expanded, and 78 media outlets and journalists experienced judicial and security confrontations by the Islamic Republic,” wrote DeFFI on Friday.

Established amid the Women, Life, Freedom protests in 2022, DeFFI was formed by journalists, lawyers, and human rights advocates to document media suppression and advocate for free expression.

The protests, which called for greater social freedoms and led to widespread unrest, triggered unprecedented levels of state repression targeting journalists and media outlets. This latest report suggests that despite the change in presidential administration, there has been little to no improvement in press freedom.

DeFFI’s report highlights that Pezeshkian’s term has seen a continuation of repressive tactics, with the number of imprisoned journalists increasing from eight to ten during the administration’s first 100 days. Temporary detentions were also prevalent, affecting journalists such as Fatemeh Gholipour, Fardin Mostafaei, Ajdar Piri, and Reza Valizadeh between July and November.

According to DeFFI, Pezeshkian’s administration has presided over a sharp escalation in legal actions against the press. From late July through early November, political and press courts issued criminal charges in 32 documented cases, resulting in prison sentences, corporal punishment, and fines. Seven journalists, including Niloufar Hamedi and Elahe Mohammadi, received a cumulative sentence totaling over 13 years in prison, 70 lashes, and substantial fines.

Hamedi and Mohammadi are recognized for their reporting on the death of Mahsa Amini in September 2022. Their work brought international attention to the incident, leading to widespread protests in Iran. In September 2022, shortly after their coverage of Amini's death, both journalists were arrested. They faced charges including "collaborating with the hostile US government," "acting against national security," and "propaganda against the system." In October 2023, the Tehran Revolutionary Court sentenced Hamedi to seven years and Mohammadi to six years in prison.

The DeFFI data reflects that September was a particularly fraught month for press freedoms, with judicial and security confrontations against journalists increasing by 30% from August. In September, DeFFI documented that at least 24 journalists and media entities faced government confrontations in 28 separate cases, underscoring a pattern of intensified pressure on those reporting critically on state matters.

DeFFI’s findings also reveal a rise in legal complaints against media professionals since Pezeshkian took office. During this period, at least 38 new complaints were filed, with government entities accounting for more than half. Prominent complainants included the Tehran Prosecutor’s Office, Cyber Police, and several high-profile ministries, including those of Oil, Culture, and Economy. While Pezeshkian previously committed to withdrawing government-led complaints against journalists, the report notes that officials not only failed to retract cases but filed numerous new complaints.

In addition to increased judicial actions, the report describes ongoing violations of journalists’ rights during investigations. Between July and November, there were 74 documented instances of rights violations, with unauthorized or non-transparent trials occurring in 46 cases. DeFFI reported other violations, including interference in journalistic activities, arbitrary detentions, denial of legal representation, and seizure of personal property. Physical assaults on journalists were also reported, with two instances of documented physical abuse by security forces.

Since its establishment, the Islamic Republic has consistently suppressed independent media through arrests, torture, and imprisonment.

While Pezeshkian’s government initially suggested it would support freer expression, DeFFI’s findings suggest otherwise, pointing to an entrenched pattern of media suppression.

“A nuclear test, along with its formal announcement, must not be delayed,” member of parliament Ahmad Naderi posted on X.

His comment comes alongside a video widely circulated on social media, which some believe shows an intercontinental ballistic missile test in Shahroud, northern Iran. Naderi, the only political figure speaking about the matter, refrained from confirming specifics, simply saying this development was “nothing unexpected.”

Iran has an array of medium-range ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel, but extending their range could put European countries within striking distance.

Last month, an Israeli airstrike targeted multiple sites, including a key IRGC missile facility in Shahroud in north-central Iran, where satellite imagery from Planet Labs later showed significant damage to a ballistic missile and space rocket launch site.

Earlier this month, Kamal Kharrazi, former foreign minister and top foreign policy advisor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, warned that Iran might consider lifting its self-imposed 2,500-kilometer missile range limit in response to Israeli threats, signaling potential plans to test an intercontinental missile.

Kharrazi further indicated that Iran possesses the capability to produce nuclear weapons and suggested that, under existential threats, Tehran might reconsider the Supreme Leader’s ruling against weapons of mass destruction.

“If the Islamic Republic of Iran faces an existential threat, we may have no choice but to adjust our military doctrine,” Kharrazi said.

Iran has consistently held that it would not pursue nuclear weapons, citing a 2010 fatwa banning all forms of weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear arms. However, this decree is sometimes seen as advisory in nature and could be reinterpreted by Iranian decision-makers if the security landscape changes.

Israel launched airstrikes on military targets in Iran in response to a missile attack Iran had directed at Israel on October 1. The strikes damaged missile facilities and air defense systems, resulting in the deaths of four Iranian soldiers and one civilian.

Since then, Iranian officials’ rhetoric has fluctuated, at times suggesting an intent for a retaliatory response.

"The world should know that if the war expands, its detrimental effects will not be confined to West Asia," Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Saturday at a ceremony in Tehran honoring the late Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.

Araghchi’s remarks came amid a recent series of intensified confrontations involving Iran and Israel, and the Trump's victory in US elections. The ceremony was held to commemorate Nasrallah after his death in an Israeli airstrike on September 27. The Israeli military conducted a large-scale operation, codenamed New Order, in which over 80 bombs were used to target Hezbollah’s fortified underground headquarters in Beirut’s Haret Hreik district, approximately 60 feet below ground.

In response to the assassination, Iran launched an unprecedented missile strike on October 1, targeting Israeli military facilities in what marked the largest direct missile attack on Israel by Tehran. Israel’s advanced air defense systems intercepted many of the incoming missiles. Israel responded on October 26 with a large air strike deep inside Iran, targeting air defense systems and missile production facilities.

Following that attack, Iranian officials issued angry statements for a week before the US elections, threatening a harsh response to Israel.

However, Araghchi and other officials who spoke at the event on Saturday did not mention any retaliation or attack against Israel, a sign of caution after Trump's election.

Mohammad Javad Zarif, former foreign minister and the Iranian president's deputy on strategic affairs, also spoke at the event, emphasizing Iran’s commitment to supporting what Tehran calls "the resistance movement" symbolized by Hezbollah. Zarif said, “Hezbollah is alive, and Israel will not see a single day of peace until the complete liberation of Palestinian lands.”

He further warned that peace would remain elusive unless Palestinian rights were fully acknowledged and respected, adding, “The Zionist regime and the United States must accept that as long as the rights of the Palestinian people are not respected...they will not see peace.”

Many Iranian activists and analysts believe Trump's second presidency may lead to renewed tensions between the United States and Iran. Trump’s 2024 campaign included indications of a return to his maximum pressure policy on Iran between 2018-2020, aimed at curbing Tehran's regional influence and nuclear ambitions.

Following the US election, Zarif cautiously expressed hope that the incoming administration might prioritize stability over confrontation, saying that Iran would remain standing firm against aggression.

Also addressing the Tehran audience, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf praised Hezbollah as a force in the region. Ghalibaf said, “It was Hezbollah that, through the sacrifice of its sons, contained the international threat and established stability and security in the world.” He added that "Europe owes its security to Nasrallah's leadership" but did not elaborate on how Nasrallah contributed to Europe's security.