German lawmakers sponsor four Iranian protesters on death row

This announcement by Abolhassan Mahdavi, the temporary Friday prayer leader in Isfahan, comes amid heightened tensions between Israel and the Islamic Republic and concerns over the possibility of Khamenei being assassinated by Israel. It is not the first time that a senior cleric makes a similar statement, but the timing on this occasion provokes more questions.

Concerns over Khamenei's assassination

Even before the recent escalation between Israel and the Islamic Republic, discussions about Khamenei’s succession were already ongoing. These concerns have now intensified. In recent meetings with the Assembly of Experts, the body responsible for selecting the next Supreme Leader, Khamenei urged members to be ready to swiftly choose a successor if needed. Analysts interpret these remarks as stemming from his fear of an Israeli assassination rather than concerns about natural causes.

During Friday prayers, Mahdavi emphasized that Khamenei is physically healthy, showing no signs of illness. This reinforced the view that what the establishment is most concerned about is external threats.

A "Martyrdom" atmosphere in recent Assembly meeting

Assembly member Heydari Kashani described Khamenei’s recent meeting with the Assembly of Experts as taking place in an atmosphere of “martyrdom.” According to Kashani, participants wept as Khamenei emphasized the need for the Assembly to quickly select a new leader in his absence. This underscores concerns about potential unrest and the heightened risk of the regime’s collapse without Khamenei.

Mojtaba Khamenei: The leading candidate

Mahdavi disclosed that three candidates have been selected as potential successors, though their identities remain confidential. Among them, Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of Ali Khamenei and his most politically influential offspring, is widely regarded as the leading contender.

Mojtaba has reportedly been groomed for leadership with his father’s approval. For over 27 years, he has played a behind-the-scenes role in shaping major policy decisions. Close associates, such as Abbas Palizdar and former IRIB head Mohammad Sarafraz, have also confirmed Mojtaba’s influence. His recent suspension of his advanced jurisprudence classes and the release of his first official video further signal preparations for a power transition.

Alireza Arafi: A likely second choice

Another potential candidate is Alireza Arafi, a trusted confidant of Khamenei. Arafi is the second deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts, a member of the Guardian Council, Friday prayer leader of Qom, and an influential figure in the seminary. His position within the power structure enhances his chances of being chosen.

Hashem Hosseini Bushehri: A third possibility

The third likely candidate is Hashem Hosseini Bushehri. He is the first deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts, the head of the Qom Seminary Society, and Friday prayer leader in Qom. His close ties to Khamenei and key leadership roles increase his prospects. In contrast, figures like Mehdi Mirbagheri, despite significant media coverage, are considered less likely candidates.

Unlikely candidates

Names such as Ali Khomeini and Hassan Khomeini, grandsons of Ruhollah Khomeini (the founder of the Islamic Republic), have also been mentioned. However, their prospects are slim due to their exclusion from the regime's upper echelons. Hassan Khomeini was effectively sidelined after being barred from running for the Assembly of Experts nine years ago.

Hassan Rouhani faced a similar disqualification, while Sadeq Larijani, the current chairman of the Expediency Discernment Council, failed to win a seat in the Assembly of Experts during the last election. Additionally, Larijani’s resignation from the Guardian Council reportedly displeased Khamenei, further diminishing his chances.

Former president Ebrahim Raisi, who served as president and first deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts, died under suspicious circumstances in a helicopter crash a day before the election of the Assembly’s new chairman in May. Meanwhile, Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, who criticized the promotion of Mojtaba Khamenei’s leadership at the Assembly meeting, was immediately removed from the Assembly’s presidium.

Broader challenges for the establishment

While Mojtaba Khamenei is considered the most likely successor, the regime faces far greater challenges than leadership transition. Escalating tensions with Israel, the re-election of Donald Trump, and mounting public discontent over chronic shortages of electricity, natural gas, and fuel have placed the regime's survival in jeopardy. Growing frustration with government inefficiency, mandatory hijab laws, and internet restrictions has only deepened public anger and unrest.

In Yasuj, southwestern Iran, a group of nurses and healthcare staff gathered to demand improved working conditions and wages.

Simultaneously, emergency personnel in Shiraz protested outside the Fars provincial governor’s office. Their demands, outlined by the Coordination Council of Nurses’ Protests, included inflation-adjusted salaries, special allowances, recognition of hazardous job conditions, and job security.

Healthcare workers, critical during the COVID-19 pandemic, have repeatedly protested in recent years over broken promises, amid persistent 40% inflation and stagnant salaries since 2019.

On Saturday, nurses at Loghman Hospital in Tehran voiced frustrations over unpaid wages and overtime, echoing broader discontent that saw work stoppages in over 70 hospitals across 50 cities earlier this year.

Retirees and workers raise economic concerns

In Tehran, oil industry retirees protested outside the National Iranian Oil Company, chanting, "The retiree's refrigerator, emptier than ever," and decrying their financial hardships. A former minister, Ali Rabiei joined the workers in solidarity.

Social Security retirees held demonstrations in the southern cities of Ahvaz and Shush, with slogans such as "Enough with warmongering, our tables are empty," and "Forget the headscarf, tackle inflation."

The steel industry retirees in Isfahan joined the wave of protests, gathering in front of the Steel Retirement Fund building to criticize deteriorating living standards.

A separate protest by retired educators took place on Saturday in front of the Presidential Office in Tehran. Holding 100,000 rial notes, criticizing the government’s failure to implement salary equalization laws. The banknote that would have been worth around $1,500 before the 1979 revolution is now worth just 15 cents.

Public transport drivers demand resolution

In Zahedan, Sistan-Baluchestan Province, public transportation drivers protested the month-long deactivation of their fuel cards. Despite assurances from provincial officials to resolve the issue, drivers claim no action has been taken. Their demands highlight the government’s inability to address even basic logistical challenges affecting livelihoods.

These protests reflect a broader crisis as citizens face increasing economic pressures amidst rising inflation, wage stagnation, and government inaction. Retirees, in particular, have held repeated protests over years, lamenting the worsening value of pensions and unfulfilled promises.

The consistent surge in demonstrations underscores mounting dissatisfaction with Masoud Pezeshkian’s administration, as workers and retirees across sectors demand the government address their grievances.

A resolution by the Economic Council, published Sunday, instructed the Ministry of Oil to create household gas tariffs designed to discourage overconsumption. The move includes categorizing more households as high-consumption users.

“The Ministry of Oil must ensure these tariffs have evident deterrent effects for excessive and unnecessary consumption,” the resolution read.

The tariff changes come alongside scheduled power outages initiated on November 10 due to insufficient fuel reserves. The government had halted mazut burning at select power plants but now plans to restart its use across industries and provincial power stations, sparking public health and environmental concerns.

Citizens, who already contend with heavily subsidized but rising energy costs, now face worsening air quality as mazut—a fuel laden with sulfur and toxins—fills the gap left by dwindling natural gas supplies.

Iran’s decision to calculate residential gas tariffs comes as part of broader fiscal policies to generate additional revenue. Under the new structure, commercial tariffs will also rise, with calculations based on recent peak rates.

Abbas Kazemi, former CEO of the National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company, blamed mismanagement for the fuel shortages. Speaking to ILNA news agency, Kazemi said that critical diesel reserves were depleted after being sold on the stock market.

“Instead of stockpiling diesel for winter, the Abadan Refinery sold 400 to 500 million liters meant for power plants,” Kazemi said.

This mismanagement, coupled with a 36% decline in mazut and diesel reserves compared to last year, has pushed Iran’s electricity grid to a critical juncture. Reports indicate that natural gas supplies to power plants in November have plummeted by 30% year-on-year, leaving thermal power stations—responsible for 80% of Iran’s electricity generation—dependent on low quality mazut.

Speaking to Khabar Online on Sunday, Hadi Haghshenas, an economic expert and the governor of Gilan Province, said: "The lack of electricity primarily stems from insufficient gas supplies. The shortage of gas, in turn, is a result of inadequate investment in the country. The imbalances in the nation are turning into a tangled web, growing increasingly complex."

The use of mazut exacerbates air pollution. High levels of particulate matter from mazut burning increase the prevalence of respiratory and cardiovascular diseases.

“The government’s reliance on mazut is forcing citizens to endure air pollution on top of power outages,” said Mohammad Jafar Ghaempanah, a senior government official, who also suggested reducing household energy consumption as a solution to outages.

As winter approaches, Iranians face an unprecedented convergence of crises with spiraling utility costs, power shortages, and public health risks in spite of being a nation endowed with vast natural gas reserves.

“Our current systems offer far superior capabilities compared to the S-400,” said Davood Sheikhian, deputy for operations of the IRGC Aerospace Force, in a video interview shared by state-controlled media.

He added that Iran is also actively using the Russian-made S-300 system and sees no need for the S-400.

Despite Sheikhian's assertion that Tehran never requested the S-400, reports in recent years have indicated that Iran sought to acquire advanced military technology from Russia, including Su-35 fighter jets and the S-400 air defense system, which Moscow has yet to deliver.

The S-400 system is widely regarded as one of Russia’s most advanced air defense systems, with capabilities to track and intercept various aerial targets, including ballistic missiles and stealth aircraft.

Multiple reports by Tehran's media outlets often spoke of negotiation to acquire the S-400 and there were even reports as recently as in August that Moscow had delivered the missiles.

Russia completed its delivery of the S-300 air defense missile systems to Iran in 2016, according to its state arms export agency, after years of delays due to international pressure. Moscow initially suspended the contract in 2010 under Western pressure, but President Vladimir Putin lifted the ban in 2016 following an interim agreement with Iran. The decision to proceed with the delivery at the time raised concerns in Israel, as the S-300 systems could significantly bolster Iran's air defense capabilities.

Sheikhian’s comments about Iran still using the S-300 contradict recent reports of Israeli airstrikes in late October that targeted and disabled Tehran's last three S-300 air defense systems, according to US and Israeli officials cited by Western media.

These S-300 systems were reportedly the final units in Tehran's arsenal, following the destruction of another battery in an April attack also attributed to Israel.

“The Iranian nation must equip itself with all the weapons that its terrorist enemies, namely the US and Israel, possess,” said Mahmoud Nabavian, a representative for Tehran in the parliament during Sunday’s parliamentary session.

On Saturday, Ahmad Naderi, another parliamentarian, echoed the sentiments in an interview with local media, saying, “Our adversaries possess extensive and ready-to-deploy arsenals of nuclear warheads, leaving Iran at a significant strategic disadvantage.”

He criticized the economic and strategic costs of Iran’s existing nuclear program, adding that the absence of nuclear deterrence has rendered it ineffective.

The statements align with a broader push by 39 lawmakers urging Iran’s Supreme National Security Council to reassess its current approach.

Iranian officials have long maintained that their nuclear program is peaceful, citing a fatwa from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei prohibiting weapons of mass destruction. However, Kamal Kharrazi, a senior advisor to Khamenei, recently hinted that the decree could be reconsidered.

Kharrazi also suggested that Iran might soon abandon its self-imposed limit on missile range, signaling a potential shift toward developing intercontinental capabilities. “If the Islamic Republic of Iran faces an existential threat, we may have no choice but to adjust our military doctrine,” he said earlier this month.

Regional tensions underpin the debates. Israel’s intensified military actions, including a recent airstrike on Iran which destroyed swathes of Iran's air defences in addition to damaging a nuclear research facility, have heightened Tehran’s sense of vulnerability. This escalation followed Iran’s October 1 missile attack on Israel, prompting retaliatory strikes by Israel that killed four Iranian soldiers.

Tehran's uranium stockpile, enriched to 60%, could be further refined to weapons-grade 90% within approximately two weeks. Such a doctrinal shift would likely signal Iran's readiness to pursue nuclear weapons if Israeli military actions jeopardize its vital interests.