Iran denies embassy evacuation amid growing doubts over Assad's survival

Hardline Islamist-led opposition forces are just as much a threat to Iran as they are to Assad, a Syrian analyst told the Eye for Iran podcast.

“Iran's real borders, from the Iranian regime's perspective, are not in Iran. Iran's borders are in Syria,” said Qutaiba Idlbi, a senior fellow with the Washington DC-based Atlantic Council covering Syria.

Tehran has extended its influence to the Mediterranean through its Lebanese ally Hezbollah, using Syria, which has been under Assad family rule for decades, as a key conduit.

“Iran uses Syria as a land bridge to other places. As we've seen since 2019 there has been an extensive Iranian effort through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to try to get to Jordan through Syria using illicit networks. They've been trying to smuggle weapons and build networks within Jordan to try to have more influence over the country,” said Idlbi.

But that land bridge is currently not operational in part due to heavy Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian interests in Syria. Iran’s alleged smuggling routes supplying Hezbollah and alleged IRGC weapons facilities have been the target of Israel for more than a year.

Because of its geographic strategic importance, Iran invested heavily in Syria over the years spending tens of billions of dollars, securing investment projects like allowing Iran to control phosphate mines and take over 5- thousand hectares of farmland and 1-thousand of oil and gas, according to Reuters.

Under the late President Ebrahim Raisi, Tehran and Damascus signed a “strategic cooperation memorandum of understanding."

Syria is of vital importance to Iran and its quest for regional hegemony, but there have been more recent blows to the Iran-backed axis losing access to key border crossings.

US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), an alliance of Syrian Kurdish fighters, seized the eastern city of Deir ez-Zor and a nearby Iraqi-Syrian border crossing used by Iran to arm Lebanon's Hezbollah, Reuters reported on Friday.

Ultimately this undermines Iran's ability to rescue Assad.

As Iran's position weakens, Assad may become even less willing to abandon his closest ally, despite alleged pressure from the United States and Israel.

The reason, according to Idlbi, is that Iran may represent Assad's only viable chance for survival—and vice versa. Idlbi added that while Assad might tell world leaders he is willing to distance himself from Iran, he is unlikely to follow through, given his reputation for dishonesty.

"He [Assad] does have the reputation of being a big liar, basically, where no one can really trust a word that comes out or any promise or commitment that he makes for sure."

So far, there is no sign that Iran is planning to militarily intervene to save Assad. Local sources are reporting that some Iranian forces are withdrawing into Iraq from eastern Syria.

On the world stage Iran is full of bluster, Idlbi argued.

While the Iranian establishment is publicly supporting Assad, there is only so much aid Iran may be able to provide as city after city falls to the insurgents' lightning advance.

Convincing Iranians to fight in the war in Syria may be another challenge, said Idlbi.

Idlbi, who fled Syria after being imprisoned twice and faced torture for his political activities, said Iran would not be able to find an airport to land their plane.

Iran and its regional militia fighters, chief among them Hezbollah and Hamas, are all degraded after more than a year of war with Israel.

Other than sending Iran-backed Iraqi Shi'ite militias to Syria in addition to recruiting forces from Afghanistan, Iran's military might is limited but their determination is unbowed, according to Idlbi.

“I don't think Iran will stop looking for a solution. I think they're actively trying to break some of those boundaries to be able to provide the support to Assad.”

“Without Syria, the regime [Iran] would really lose a lot of its intelligence and military capabilities and leverage over countries in the region.”

And just how far Iran could go to salvage its stronghold on Syria largely depends on Russia’s next move.

It appears Russia isn’t going to save Assad like it did in 2015 by shoring up its rule with airstrikes and troop deployments. The Kremlin told all Russian citizens to flee Syria Friday as rebel forces continue to make advances in the north.

Idlbi said Russia doesn’t appear willing or even capable of saving Assad this time as Putin is preoccupied in Ukraine.

“It seems some in Russia, specifically in the Kremlin, are thinking maybe enough is enough. Maybe we've invested a lot in Assad. We have an important base in Syria's coast, in Latakia and Tartus.”

The lack of action on Russia’s part harms Iran, despite the hundreds of drones Tehran has sent to Russia to aid its full-scaled invasion of Iran.

You can watch the full episode of Eye for Iran featuring the Atlantic Council's Qutaiba Idlbi, on YouTube or listen on Spotify, Apple, Amazon, Castbox or any other major podcast platform.

"The Intelligence Community continues to assess that as of 26 September 2024, Iran is not building a nuclear weapon. Tehran has, however, undertaken activities that better position it to produce one, if it so chooses," the Office of the Director of National Intelligence report said.

"Iran has continued to increase its stockpiles of 20-percent and 60-percent enriched uranium, manufacture and operate an increasing number of advanced centrifuges, and publicly discuss the utility of nuclear weapons," the report added.

These enriched uranium levels far exceed civilian needs, the ODNI said, and could be converted into material for more than a dozen nuclear weapons with further processing.

The ODNI’s assessment aligns with remarks made by Rafael Grossi, the chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) who on Friday told Reuters that Iran's capacity to produce uranium enriched to up to 60% purity, near weapons-grade, has seen a dramatic increase.

The ODNI report also highlighted a shift in public discourse within Iran, where officials and analysts are increasingly discussing nuclear weapons as a deterrent, particularly after Israeli airstrikes in April.

"This debate risks emboldening nuclear weapons advocates within Iran’s decision-making apparatus and shifting the thinking of current and future Iranian elites about the utility of nuclear weapons," it warned.

Kamal Kharrazi, a senior advisor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said last month that Iran possesses the technical capability to produce nuclear weapons and indicated that the country's stance could change if faced with an existential threat.

Iran's ballistic missile arsenal, the largest in the Middle East, is also evolving.

The report noted that Tehran is "incorporating lessons learned from its missile and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) attack against Israel in April and from Russia’s operational use of Iranian UAVs against Ukraine."

Coupled with its space-launch vehicle program, these advancements could reduce the timeline for developing intercontinental ballistic missiles if Iran pursued them.

The ODNI cautioned that further sanctions or attacks on Iran’s nuclear program could prompt Tehran to enrich uranium to weapons-grade levels, install additional advanced centrifuges, or even withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

Iran's tightly controlled media has largely remained silent on the insurgents' advances, adhering to the official ideological stance that emphasizes the supposed strength of Syria's government, bolstered by support from Iran and Russia.

However, since Thursday evening, Iranian state television has adjusted its tone regarding developments in Syria, referring to the insurgents as "the armed opponents of Assad"—a neutral term compared to the earlier characterization as ISIS extremists.

This could indicate that Tehran is gradually realizing that the landscape is changing and "the armed opponents of Assad" are likely to be in far better position than the government forces.

The shock advance has been led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former affiliate of al-Qaeda that has been designated a terrorist organization by the United States.

The "axis of resistance" is a term coined by Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to describe anti-US and anti-Israeli groups and governments in the Middle East, on whom Iran has spent billions of dollars since 2011 to secure their support.

Following Israeli strikes on Hezbollah and Hamas, the axis of resistance groups appear to have lost most of their ability to influence events. With Iran's air defense largely damaged or destroyed by Israel Iran cannot lent Syria and its proxy groups in the region serious support, fearing further Israeli attacks.

Nonetheless, despite advances by hardline Islamist-led insurgents and the fall of several cities in Syria, Iranian media - particularly state television - continues to promote exaggerated and demonstrably false reports of Syrian army victories and the recapture of lost territories.

"We know that the terrorists' advances in Syria have been blocked, and Iran and Russia have dealt them fatal blows," Beham Saeedi, Secretary of the parliament's National Security Committee, said.

"Assad's opponents' advances are temporary, and I can say with a high degree of certainty that the terrorists were defeated by the axis of resistance before and will be defeated again," Saeedi added, further accusing Israel and the United States of being behind the renewed HTS insurgency and likening it to an attack by Israel on Syria.

"Israel has done everything in its power to weaken the axis of resistance, and Iran will do whatever it takes to continue supporting it."

Meanwhile, Iranian state TV commentator Hassan Hanizadeh told the press in Tehran that Israel is indirectly involved in the war in Syria.

"Netanyahu, has started a new phase in weakening the axis of resistance with the help of the United States and Turkey ... in the coming days the situation will change in the interest of the Syrian government."

Hanizadeh reiterated that following the cease-fire with Hezbollah, Israel has shifted the battlefront to Syria by indirectly using the HTS to weaken the axis of resistance.

In the latest sign of a possible shift in Iran's media policy, state television in Tehran started to acknowledge that the relatively more moderate Syrian National Liberation Front is fighting Assad's forces along with the HTS.

The Al-Bukamal crossing fell under SDF control on Friday, Reuters said citing two Syrian army sources. The border crossing in Deir ez-Zor was a key channel used by the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to transport weapons to Lebanon through Syria.

Losing the Iraqi crossing could represent a huge blow to the regional hegemony Iran built up in the wake of the US invasion of Iraq and effectively split a so-called Shi'ite crescent spanning from the Iranian plateau to the Mediterranean.

It had united the Islamic Republic with armed co-religionists which included Iraq's Shi'ite-led government, a kaleidoscope of militias there propping it up, the Syrian government under decades of Assad family rule and Hezbollah.

The region is home to multiple military bases of Iran-backed Shi'ite militia forces from neighboring Iraq and as far afield as Afghanistan. Local activists said the Syrian army and Tehran-backed forces had pulled out of Deir el-Zor before the SDF advance.

Deir ez-Zor is the third city to slip from President Bashar al-Assad's grasp in a week. Syrian opposition forces earlier captured the cities of Aleppo and Hama and are moving closer to capturing Homs, potentially threatening the capital Damascus and Assad’s rule.

Monitoring group the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights on Friday reported clashes in the southern city of Daraa near the border with Jordan, saying local armed groups seized multiple positions belonging to the Syrian government.

Anti-government forces also captured a key Syrian army base in Daraa known as Liwa 52, Reuters reported citing two sources among opponents of Bashar al-Assad. The report said the opposition forces also seized part of the Nasib crossing on the Syria-Jordan border.

Rebels also seized the central prison of As-Suwayda Governorate in southern Syria, releasing all its inmates, according to Sky News Arabia.

Hassan Abdolghani, one of the commanders of the rebels opposing Assad, called on Syrian army forces to withdraw from Homs and Damascus in a video statement. He also urged senior Syrian military officers to defect from the army.

For over a decade, Syria's civil war saw minimal changes in frozen front lines. However, insurgents from the northwestern Idlib region, led by the former Al-Qaeda affiliate Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have made stunning gains, marking the swiftest advances since the conflict began 13 years ago.

Russia has no plan to save Assad

Assad regained much of Syria with the help of Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah, but all three have recently been distracted by other crises. This has created an opportunity for Sunni Muslim rebels to regroup and strike back.

"The IRGC established a land connection between the Resistance, linking Iran to Iraq, Iraq to Syria, and Syria to Lebanon. Today, you can get in a car in Tehran and disembark in the southern suburbs of Beirut," former IRGC Quds Force chief Qassem Soleimani had said in a 2019 speech.

Iran plans to send weapons and personnel to Syria, a senior Iranian official said on Friday. However, Russia doesn’t have a plan to save Assad and doesn’t see one emerging as long as the Syrian president’s army continues to abandon its positions, Bloomberg reported Friday citing a person close to the Kremlin.

Russia has launched a number of airstrikes against Syrian rebels over the past week; however, it has informed the Assad government that any intervention will be limited as it has other priorities at this time, Sky News Arabia reported Friday.

The Russian embassy in Damascus has advised citizens in the country they are still able to leave on commercial flights, amid fears that the Syrian capital may be the next city to fall.

Such a move would underscore the urgency the Islamic Republic sees in the declining fortunes of its main Arab ally after the Tehran-armed Lebanese Hezbollah militia limped to a ceasefire with arch-foe Israel last month.

“Tehran will provide military equipment, missiles, and drones, while increasing the number of advisers and deploying forces as needed,” Reuters cited an Iranian official as saying.

“Intelligence and satellite support are also being provided to Syria.”

Iran-backed Hezbollah sent an unspecified number of fighters into Homs to help Assad’s government according to Lebanese security sources and Syrian officials cited by Reuters, adding that small units crossed into Syria overnight and took up defensive positions in the city.

After capturing the northern city of Hama on Thursday, hardline Islamist-led rebels were closing in on Homs, a strategic crossroads which links Syria’s capital Damascus to the coastal regions dominated by Assad’s Alawite minority and home to Russia’s key naval and air bases.

Its capture would deal a severe blow to Assad’s remaining forces.

For over a decade, Syria's civil war saw minimal changes in frozen front lines. However, insurgents from the northwestern Idlib region, led by the former Al-Qaeda affiliate Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have made stunning gains, marking the swiftest advances since the conflict began 13 years ago.

Assad's allies face diversions

Assad regained much of Syria with the help of Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah, but all three have recently been distracted by other crises. This has created an opportunity for Sunni Muslim rebels to regroup and strike back.

Devastating Israeli attacks since September significantly weakened Hezbollah that provided thousands of experienced fighters to defend government strongholds.

HTS leader Abu Mohammed Al-Golani (Jolani) told CNN that his group aims to “build Syria” and repatriate refugees from Lebanon and Europe. In his first interview since HTS began its offensive on November 27, Al-Golani emphasized the group's break from Al-Qaeda in 2016, claiming it poses no threat to the West and seeks to present itself as a viable alternative to Assad.

Rebels have already captured Aleppo and Hama and are pushing south toward Homs, gaining control of the towns of Talbisa and Rastan. Opposition sources report rapid disintegration of government forces and defections to rebel forces.

Civilian exodus from Homs

As rebels edge closer to Homs, thousands of residents have begun fleeing toward coastal government strongholds like Latakia and Tartus. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported a mass exodus from Homs on Thursday night.

A resident of Homs noted that the offices of the city’s main security branches had been evacuated, leaving pro-government militias patrolling empty streets. "Most commercial areas are deserted," said Wasim Marouh, a local who chose to stay behind.

Islamic State resurgence

Adding to Assad’s challenges, the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces reported increased activity by Islamic State (IS) militants in eastern Syria. Mazloum Abdi, the group's leader, said IS had regained footholds in the southern and western deserts of Deir Al-Zor and parts of Raqqa.

HTS rebels have urged Homs residents to rise up. In an online post, their operations room declared, “Your time has come.”

In response, Russian airstrikes destroyed the Rastan bridge on the M5 highway to slow the rebel advance. Syrian government forces are also deploying reinforcements around Homs.

While Assad relied heavily on Russian and Iranian military backing during the height of the civil war, Moscow’s focus on its Ukraine invasion and the recent loss of Hezbollah’s senior leadership to Israeli strikes have strained his allies’ ability to provide support.

The battle for Homs now stands as a critical test of Assad's survival in Syria’s protracted conflict.