IRGC-linked daily calls for building nuclear deterrence
A hardline Iranian newspaper affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards has called for building nuclear weapons as a form of deterrence following Israeli air strikes on October 26.
A hardline Iranian newspaper affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards has called for building nuclear weapons as a form of deterrence following Israeli air strikes on October 26.
In an editorial penned by the editor-in-chief of the Javan newspaper, Gholamreza Sadeghian, the IRGC-aligned outlet categorized four types of deterrence and said that the Islamic Republic has achieved the first three: political, economic, and military.
The author referred to the last type as nuclear deterrence, writing: "We know that the enemy is concerned with Iran's deterrence in this regard.”
“While we have emphasized that we are not pursuing nuclear weapons, the capability to acquire them and establish deterrence is another matter—one that the world recognizes in Iran, with estimates suggesting we could achieve this within a week if we chose to do so."
The UN nuclear watchdog has warned several times that Iran may be weeks away from having enough weapons-grade nuclear material.
Earlier this year at the Aspen Security Forum, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned that Tehran can produce the necessary fissile material for an atomic bomb in as little as a week or two.
“Instead of being at least a year away from having the breakout capacity of producing fissile material for a nuclear weapon, it is now probably one or two weeks away from doing that,” he said, clarifying that Iran has not yet produced a weapon, which would take far more time.
The editorial from the Javan newspaper, a mouthpiece for the IRGC, indicates a growing sentiment within certain circles of the Iranian establishment, advocating for the acquisition of nuclear weapons as a means of deterrence.
It has heightened against the backdrop of tensions with its nemesis Israel, widely believed to possess at least 90 nuclear warheads, according to organizations such as the Arms Control Association.
Earlier in October, a group of Iranian lawmakers called on Iran's Supreme National Security Council to review the country's defense doctrine and consider building nuclear weapons. They argued that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei can reconsider his religious ban on nuclear weapons on the grounds that the circumstances have changed.
Iranian officials have repeatedly asserted that the country's nuclear program is peaceful, referring to a religious ruling by Khamenei prohibiting weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear bombs.
Tehran’s stockpile of uranium, currently enriched to 60%, could potentially be refined to weapons-grade 90% in a very short time. The shift in doctrine would likely be a signal of Iran's willingness to develop nuclear weapons if Israeli military actions threaten its core interests.
In May, an adviser to Iran's supreme leader said that Iran would reconsider its nuclear doctrine if Israel threatens its existence. There are also claims by Iranian officials that Iran might already possess a nuclear weapon.
In August, Iran International reported that Tehran is intensifying efforts on its secretive nuclear weapons program, bringing the country closer than ever to developing a nuclear bomb.
In early October, pro-establishment voices on Persian-language social media claimed that a recent earthquake in Iran’s Semnan province was actually a covert nuclear test as ultra-hardliners rejoiced over the claims of Iran's alleged nuclear test.
Alex Vatanka, founding director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute, told Iran International's Eye for Iran this month that Tehran is nervous about potential Israeli strikes on its nuclear facilities and is using its controversial atomic program as a leverage.
According to Jack Roush, a research associate at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations -- a little-known but influential body handpicked by Khamenei-- may provide the spur the Supreme Leader needs to ditch his avowed refusal of nuclear weapons and reach for the ultimate deterrent.
Israel has historically been one of the toughest places to recruit spies and foreign operatives, but recent weeks have seen a surge in arrests of Jewish immigrants from Russia and Azerbaijan.
The latest citizens to be arrested were a married couple, Rafael and Lela Goliev, who live in the mixed Arab and Jewish city of Lod. The 32-year-olds were arrested after carrying out tasks on behalf of an Iranian infrastructure that recruits Israeli immigrants from the Caucasus countries, Israeli authorities say.
The investigation revealed that Rafael Goliev was recruited into the plot by fellow Azeri Elshan Agayev, 56, acting on behalf of Iranian officials.
“As part of the operation, Golayev carried out surveillance missions on security sites in Israel, including the Mossad's headquarters, and collected intelligence on an academic working at the Institute for Security Studies who the Iranians marked as an assassination target,” a statement from Israel Police said.
Goliev was also asked to locate a person who would serve as the assassin for the Iranian operation. Some of the tasks were carried out by Goliev with the help of his wife Lela who will be served with an indictment today.
The two, both of Azeri origin, had been in contact with the handler since 2021, but in the last month, it is the sixth cell busted for working for Iran. In the last year, the incidences have spiked, reaching a head in October with all the cases coming from either Russia or Azerbaijan.
Israel’s former head of Interpol, Asher Ben Artzi, told Iran International on Thursday as the news broke that the situation reflects a disconnected segment of Israel’s immigrant population. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, several Jews used the right of return to move to Israel and thousands more Russians have fled to the Jewish state in the wake of the war in Ukraine.
“These people come from a very closed society, it’s not like native born Israelis who could never conceive of doing such a thing,” he said. “In all my years in the security services here, I never thought I would see this day. It’s a tragic thing that people who come here seeking refuge, can do this all for the pursuit of greed.”
Immigrants from the former Soviet Union tend to live in more closed communities and integrate less than other immigrants, as well as often being among the less economically well-off segments of the population.
Iranian-born Israeli Beni Sabti, also a researcher at the INSS, told Iran International that Iranians are catching “people or communities in Israel who are not paid enough and are dissatisfied in life”, a vulnerable sector of society which now numbers around one million of Israel’s 10 million population.
Ronen Solomon, an Israeli defense and intelligence analyst, told Iran International that using Azeri for communications may have revealed a gap in Israel’s monitoring capabilities, which are more robust for Persian and Hebrew languages.
Ben Arzti, a veteran of Israel’s security and intelligence sector, noted that Iran enjoys greater operational freedom in Azerbaijan, enabling it to potentially recruit and groom agents there for deployment to Israel.
Solomon further suggested that the recruited Azeris may come from Iran’s Azeri speaking population, making them especially vulnerable to recruitment efforts.
Like previous plots, Solomon said the fact they communicate on Telegram also exposes the weakness of the social media platform which protects the identity of users even when engaged in criminal activity.
Other targets of surveillance in the operation included the Moldovan consulate in Tel Aviv, the national electric company, the port of Haifa, public shelters in Tel Aviv, and graves of victims of the October 7 attacks.
According to the indictment, Goliev received an amount of approximately $600 for each day of surveillance and photography in the mission. His handlers ordered him to purchase an operational phone, high quality cameras, a laptop as well as to use the coding software they installed on the laptop, in order to transfer the information they collected safely. In total, the couple received around $26,000, the police said.
Tamir Hyman, the former head of Israeli defense intelligence and head of the INSS, told Israel’s Ynet: "It is not surprising that the members of the Institute for National Security Studies are a target for Iran and its proxies. Although the institute is an independent research institute, and is not part of the defense establishment, it is the leading defense research institute in Israel and as such, Iran seeks to harm its people.”
Last week, an indictment was filed against seven residents of northern Israel who operated as part of an organized squad recruited by an Iranian agent, and during the war engaged in information gathering and photography of military facilities and bases - among others, those that were the target of the Iranian missile attack on October 1.