Iran planning to resume testing nuclear bomb detonators

"That's my expectation," President Joe Biden told reporters when asked if a truce between Israel and Hamas could stave off an Iranian assault, adding that while negotiations were "getting hard" he was "not giving up".

Reuters earlier in the day quoted unnamed Iranian officials as saying that Iran, along with its allies such as Hezbollah, is prepared to launch a direct attack if the Gaza talks fail or if Israel is seen to be dragging out negotiations. However, the timeline for how long Iran would wait before responding remains unclear.

The assassination of Haniyeh, for which Iran blames Israel, has escalated tensions in the region. Although Israel has neither confirmed nor denied its involvement, the US has deployed additional military assets to the Middle East to bolster Israeli defenses. Amid rising fears of a broader Middle East conflict following the killings of both Haniyeh and Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr, Iran has engaged in intense dialogue with Western countries and the United States to manage the situation.

Iran has been threatening to launch a harsh retaliation against Israel that could lead to a regional war, but after two weeks of keeping the world in suspense no attack has taken place. In April, Tehran fired more than 300 missiles and drones at Israel in first such strike for an attack on its embassy compound in Damascus.

The Reuters report might be an indication that Tehran is withholding any retaliation expecting to receive diplomatic concessions in return. Some Iranian media and political figures began showing a more pragmatic stance a few days after Haniyeh's killing indicating the futility of military escalation.

US officials have been in discussions with allies to convince Iran to de-escalate tensions, with ceasefire talks expected to begin on Thursday in Egypt or Qatar. Despite these diplomatic efforts, Iran’s mission to the UN issued a statement expressing hope that any response to Haniyeh’s killing would be timed to avoid harming potential ceasefire talks. However, Iran's foreign ministry dismissed calls for restraint as contradictory to international law principles.

Iran's mission to the UN in New York told Reuters on Tuesday that Tehran would not have a representative present on the sidelines of the Gaza ceasefire talks. Two sources earlier told Reuters Iran was considering sending a representative to the ceasefire talks. However, they said the representative would not directly attend the meetings but would engage in behind-the-scenes discussions "to maintain a line of diplomatic communication" with the US while negotiations proceed.

The prospect of Iranian retaliation has kept both the US and Israel on high alert, with White House spokesperson John Kirby acknowledging that a retaliatory attack could occur as soon as this week, potentially impacting the ceasefire negotiations.

The potential ceasefire in Gaza presents a crucial moment for Iran, which may use it as cover for a more limited, symbolic response. This could allow Iran to fulfill its pledge of retaliation while avoiding a full-scale war that could further destabilize the region. Iran, which has not traditionally been involved in Gaza peace talks, is now considering a more active role, possibly through behind-the-scenes involvement rather than direct participation in the ceasefire negotiations.

According to the Iranian sources, Hezbollah and other allies may also launch their own responses to the killings of Haniyeh and Shukr, with Iran ready to support these actions. The details of what such support could entail remain unspecified. However, any Iranian response is expected to be more effective than previous actions, such as the missile barrage launched by Iran on April 13 following the killing of Iranian generals in Syria. That attack, which targeted Israeli airbases, was largely intercepted and did not achieve significant damage.

The situation remains highly volatile, with Tehran's reaction closely tied to the progress of the Gaza ceasefire talks and the broader regional dynamics influenced by the actions of Hezbollah, Iraq's militias, and Yemen's Houthis against Israel.

Iran is facing its most severe heatwave in 50 years causing nationwide power outages as the government struggles with billions of dollars' worth of deficit. Industrial production faces a crisis, as manufacturers report that frequent power outages have often halted operations.

Now cryptocurrency miners are apparently rubbing salt into the wounds of Iran's electricity network, according to the CEO of Iran’s state electricity company Tavanir.

"Opportunistic individuals have been exploiting subsidized electricity and public networks to mine cryptocurrencies without proper authorization. This unauthorized mining has led to an abnormal surge in electricity consumption, causing significant disruptions and problems within the country's power grid," said Mostafa Rajabi Mashhadi.

In response to the growing issue, Iranian authorities have initiated a crackdown on illegal miners. To encourage public cooperation, officials say a reward has been introduced.

"A bounty of one million toman (approximately $20) will be awarded to individuals who report every single unauthorized cryptocurrency mining equipment," Rajabi said.

Cryptocurrencies are created through a process known as mining, where powerful computers compete with each other to solve complex mathematical problems. The process is highly energy-intensive, often relying on electricity generated by fossil fuels, which are abundant in Iran.

"So far, more than 230,000 illegal cryptocurrency mining devices with a power consumption capacity of 800 to 900 megawatts have been discovered. Their electricity consumption is equivalent to that of the Markazi Province," Rajabi noted. "Providing this amount of electricity would require the construction of a 1,300-megawatt power plant."

In recent years, Iranian authorities have regularly announced the discovery of illegal cryptocurrency mining machines in different parts of the country. Many of these operations were based in public locations such as schools and mosques that receive free or heavily-subsidized electricity.

In 2022, the state’s Intelligence Ministry claimed they blocked over 9,000 accounts belonging to 454 individuals used for illegal or undeclared exchanges of currency and digital currency. Based on the exchange rate during that period, the relevant trades amounted to 600,000 billion rials or approximately $2 billion.

As experts have often said, the Iranian government has a self-inflicted “muddled relationship with crypto-currencies”, which have served to obscure various forms of trade, aiding in evading sanctions, while simultaneously presenting avenues for illicit activities.

Reports in Iranian media suggest that large-scale crypto mining has been taking place by influential or well-connected networks, as well as some Chinese companies that are using cheap and subsidized electricity in mining farms they set up in Iran. This could have been permitted only by Iran's intelligence services and the Revolutionary Guard.

On Monday, the leaders of France, Germany, and the UK issued a joint statement urging Iran and its allies to exercise restraint and avoid actions that could further inflame regional tensions or undermine efforts to secure a ceasefire in Gaza amid the war and facilitate the release of the remaining more than 100 hostages held by Iran-backed Hamas.

Nasser Kanaani, the spokesperson for Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, asserted on Tuesday that the “apathy” of Western nations has enabled Israel to perpetrate "a myriad of international crimes, including genocide and war crimes," all while remaining "unpunished" referring to the Gaza war.

The latest statement warned Tehran and its network of regional militias that “They will bear responsibility for actions that jeopardize this opportunity for peace and stability.” Meanwhile, Iran-backed Hamas is threatening to boycott the latest round of ceasefire talks amid Iran's looming attack.

Also in a call on Monday, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer urged Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to avoid attacking Israel, emphasizing that war serves no one's interests.

Pezeshkian reiterated Iran's right to retaliate, under pressure to publicly maintain the Supreme Leader's position, even though behind the scenes he too worries for the impact such an escalation would have inside Iran and has implored Ali Khamenei to rethink the operation.

Iran's President acknowledged that war is never in anyone's interest, yet affirmed the inherent right of nations to "punitive responses against an aggressor," according to the official news agency, IRNA.

In parallel, on Tuesday, Israel's Army Radio reported that Israel has recently conveyed to the US and several European nations that any direct aggression from Tehran would prompt an Israeli strike on Iranian territory.

The report, though unsourced, indicated that Israel underscored its determination to retaliate against Iran, even if no Israeli casualties result.

It is almost two weeks since Hamas's political leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran. In April, it was also two weeks before Iran undertook its first direct attack on Israel following an alleged Israeli airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Syria.

Two IRGC commanders were killed along with several other senior figures, leading to a barrage of over 350 drones, rockets and missiles fired towards Israel. Israel and a US-led coalition intercepted the majority of the onslaught.

On Tuesday, Asghar Abbasgholizadeh, the commander of the Ashura Headquarters of the IRGC said, "On the surface, it seems too late for a response and revenge, but the enemy endures significant pressure by waiting. We are awaiting the command of the Supreme Leader, whether for patience and perseverance or retaliation."

Reuters reported on Tuesday that a potential ceasefire agreement in Gaza, emerging from anticipated talks this week, would deter Iran from directly retaliating against Israel for the assassination of Hamas's political leader.

Citing senior Iranian security officials, Reuters wrote that if the Gaza negotiations falter or if Iran perceives Israel as stalling, Iran, along with allies such as Hezbollah, is prepared to launch a direct attack. The sources did not specify how long Iran would wait for the talks to progress before taking action.

However, while it remains unclear if Hamas will attend the talks amid demands that Israel holds fire while they continue, a demand that Israel will not comply with, global powers remain keen to avert a crisis.

“Our drones have become the stuff of legend, their renown echoing across the globe, making them a must-see for every nation—alongside, naturally, our missiles,” Ali Shadmani, Deputy Coordinator of Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, told IRNA on the sidelines of the exhibition.

Iran’s Ambassador to Moscow, Kazem Jalali, who attended the exhibition, also lauded Tehran’s defense achievements in an interview with the Iranian state news agency.

He remarked that officials from numerous nations “envy” Iran’s advancements when visiting its pavilion, underscoring that “progress in the defense and military fields is not mere rhetoric but a proud reality.”

Jalali further praised the strong ties between Tehran and Moscow, countering claims by “those who seek to demonize countries like Russia and Iran as the true war-mongers.”

In spite of denials of supporting Russia's war in Ukraine, he said that Iran's “political, economic, cultural, and particularly defense and military relations with Russia are not directed against any nation.”

The very entity present at the exhibition—Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, which plays a pivotal role in coordinating Iran's military production—was sanctioned by the EU in May for precisely this reason: supporting Russia's war on Ukraine.

Since mid-2022, Iran has supplied Russia with hundreds of Shahed suicide drones, which have been extensively employed in targeting civilian infrastructure and urban centers across Ukraine. In response, NATO has urged Tehran to cease its military cooperation with Moscow in addition to multiple nations such as the US and Britain levying sanctions on Russia for its support of Russia.

Last week, a report from Reuters indicated that dozens of Russian military personnel are currently being trained in Iran to operate the Fath-360 close-range ballistic missile system.

It cited two European intelligence sources which warned of an imminent delivery of hundreds of the satellite-guided missiles to Russia.

Unlike the Shahed drones, which carry a relatively small payload of explosives at around 45 kilograms and are more vulnerable to interception due to their slower speed, the Fath-360 missiles represent a far more potent threat.

Iran's UN representative dismissed the Reuters report, refuting the claims that Iran is preparing to supply hundreds of missiles to Russia for its war in Ukraine.

The International Military-Technical Forum "Army-2024" appeared to draw limited international participation, a reflection of Russia's growing isolation amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Over the past two years, Western sanctions have increasingly targeted entities and individuals worldwide, intensifying efforts to isolate Moscow on the global stage.

According to reports from Russian state media outlet Sputnik, four nations—Belarus, Iran, India, and China—have exclusively organized national exhibitions and individual stands representing defense industry enterprises.

In a post on X, Israel Katz said that as Iran's proxies in Gaza and Lebanon continue to fight on Israel's northern and southern borders, Iran is now trying to destabilize Jordan and the Palestinian Authority (PA)-controlled West Bank.

Katz stated that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) is working with Hamas operatives in Lebanon to smuggle weapons into Jordan.

"A serious and dangerous situation is unfolding as Iran works to establish a new eastern terror front against Israel’s major population centers," he said.

"Iranian Revolutionary Guard units are collaborating with Hamas operatives in Lebanon to smuggle weapons and funds into Jordan with the aim of destabilizing the regime."

He said that from Jordan, weapons are smuggled across the eastern border, "flooding" the West Bank, particularly refugee camps, with dangerous weapons and large sums of money, "aiming to create a pro-Iranian Islamic terror front, as they have done in Gaza, Lebanon, and other areas, targeting Tel Aviv and Israel’s major population centers".

The foreign minister said: "The Iranian axis of evil today effectively controls refugee camps in Judea and Samaria [West Bank] through its proxies, leaving the Palestinian Authority powerless to act. We must take terror hubs like the Jenin refugee camp and carry out a thorough operational campaign to dismantle the terror infrastructure in the camp."

David Schenker, a Taube Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute said Tehran is aiming to destabilize Jordan, one of Israel's Arab allies, by inciting protests against its ruling Hashemite dynasty. He said Iran is also increasing drug and weapons smuggling through the kingdom in a bid to overthrow the monarchy and turn it into another Iran proxy state.

He said there's a strong Hamas presence in the West Bank despite being under Palestinian Authority control.

"The Iranians are incredibly incensed by Jordan's Western orientation and the fact that Jordan has a peace treaty with Israel," said Schenker, who was a former Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs.

Jordan has been at peace with its neighbor Israel since 1994. Amman also maintains close ties to Washington, and has a role in administering Muslim holy sites in Jerusalem.

"Iran is interfering in Jordanian internal politics," he said.

Jordan's Reaction: Diplomacy vs. Reality

Katz, Israel's Foreign Minister wrote on X that "the construction of the eastern barrier along the border with Jordan must be expedited to prevent the smuggling of weapons from Jordan into Israel, which threatens both the Jordanian regime and the State of Israel".

Jordanian Foreign Minister, Ayman Safadi, posted to X, seemingly in response to Katz, calling his tweet 'lies' and taking aim at Israel's war in Gaza since the Iran-backed Hamas invasion of October 7. In a single day, Hamas killed over 1,100 mostly civilians and took over 250 more hostage, sparking the longest Gaza war since Hamas took control of the strip.

"No amount of disinformation by radical Israeli officials spreading lies, including about Jordan, will change the fact that Israel’s continued aggression on Gaza, its violation of international law and the rights of the Palestinian people are the biggest threat to regional security," wrote Safadi.

Jordan's top diplomat made a rare visit to Iran on August 4, underscoring Amman's sensitive position, the first official visit of a Jordanian to Tehran in decades.

Despite the public outcry from the foreign minister, Jordan is a key ally for its Jewish neighbor. That was made clear when Jordan was part of a global coalition to thwart more than 350 missiles and drones aimed directly at Israel from Iran in April.

The Islamic Republic launched its first direct attack on Israel's soil in response to an apparent Israeli strike on an Iranian consulate in Syria on April 1 that killed two IRGC generals and several senior officials.

Almost all of the missiles were intercepted by Israel and a US-led coalition including France, Jordan and Britain. It is believed that Saudi Arabia provided intelligence reports about Iran's plans to the US.

While Jordan must speak out against Israel in public, its diplomatic relationship with the Jewish state remains strong, not least in the area of security.

Nearly 60 percent of Jordan's population is of Palestinian origin, putting the country in a precarious position when it comes to supporting Israel publicly given the backdrop of the war against Hamas.

On Episode 10 of Iran International's English podcast 'Eye for Iran', Israeli Knesset member Amit Halevi, said Jordan and other neighboring Arab countries like Saudi Arabia appear one way diplomatically for their populace, but cooperate with Israel for their own security and well-being.

Halevi said that Iran's attempts and activities to undermine the Jordanian regime have "become high level in recent years".

Dr. Walid Phares, an expert in foreign policy and the author of 'Iran, an Imperialist Republic, and US Policy', told Iran International smuggling arms through Jordan is not new. Formed over the years, it has been facilitated since Iran effectively took over areas of Iraq, which shares a long border with Jordan.

Jordan also shares a large border with Saudi Arabia, which impacts not just the Saudis but the Kuwaitis and the UAE.

"That passage or that chunk of Jordan is really very important strategically," he said, a possible means for terrorist groups and militias to use, should there a wider regional war occur between Iran and Israel.

"If Jordan is destabilized or [was to] fall entirely or partially, either to the Iran backed militias or to the Muslim Brotherhood, we are in deep trouble internationally," said Phares, who served as a national security advisor to US Presidential nominees.