Iran International
In the aftermath of Bashar al-Assad's ouster in Syria, some Iranian politicians and commentators have pointed to his unpopularity and criticized the Islamic Republic for what they describe as the extensive resources wasted on keeping him in power.
Some of the more outspoken views about Assad, which could be seen as indirect criticism of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's policies, were conspicuously deleted after a few hours, possibly under pressure from authorities.
Khamenei has consistently praised Bashar al-Assad as a pivotal figure in the "Axis of Resistance" and has insisted on unwavering support for him against his opponents.
Conservative commentator Mohammad Mohajeri, tweeted Sunday, “In the last election, Bashar al-Assad had won 95 percent of the vote, but three years after that election, he fell from power without a single person from among ordinary people being willing to defend him." He later removed his post without an explanation.
Prominent commentator Sadegh Zibakalam, often labeled a reformist, reiterated his recent criticism of the Islamic Republic’s costly support for Bashar al-Assad in two tweets on Sunday.
Zibakalam, who has frequently condemned Iran's spending on arming and supporting groups like the Houthis and Hezbollah, as well as countries such as Venezuela, had also criticized the financial backing for Assad in a November 2023 interview.
In one of his tweets, Zibakalam who has also been very critical of Iran's costly nuclear program, said the Islamic Republic dedicated every possible assistance including the lives of its men to keep Assad in power but “never asked even once how this resistance leader treated his people.”
“Assad’s end was fortunate both for the Syrian people and Iranians. The people of Syria were saved from the suppressive rule of Baathists after half a century. The gain for the Iranians is that wastage of their country’s resources and throwing that into the bottomless well called Axis of Resistance to save a despotic and unpopular ruler ended,” he said in another post.
Zibakalam, who was imprisoned in May and later released for medical treatment, deleted his tweets after a few hours and made no further comments on Assad’s fall.
Parvaneh Salahshouri, a former reformist lawmaker and outspoken critic of the Islamic Republic’s policies, referred to Bashar al-Assad as a dictator in a brief post on X. “Assad’s destiny, the disgraceful fate of all dictators,” she wrote.
“The fate of over half a century of the Assad family dictatorship in Syria … must be a lesson for all authoritarian governments,” the former secretary general of the banned Freedom Movement of Iran Party, Mohammad Tavassoli, warned in an X post, adding that timely “return to the people” and giving them freedom and the power to exercise their wishes can “prevent such a costly process” as overthrowing the Assad family.
A similar view was expressed by Rahmatollah Bigdelli, a pro-Pezeshkian cleric and politician, who also in an X post said Assad’s fall should be a lesson for a government to surrender to the will of its people to stay immune to “internal and external threats”.
Assad’s reported $30 billion debt to Iran
In addition to deploying tens of thousands of fighters to support Bashar al-Assad’s forces against insurgents across Syria, the Islamic Republic provided his government with free oil and military equipment for years.
Iran's substantial support for Assad has contributed to sanctions being imposed on its prominent airline, Mahan Air, as well as the country's national carrier, Iran Air.
In May 2020, Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, then-chairman of the parliamentary National Security Council and Foreign Policy Committee, said Iran had spent between $20 to $30 billion to support Assad and demanded that the debt be paid back.
“Syria … Iranians must rejoice now. Nobody has the right to spend the nation’s dollars to preserve the spider’s web,” Falahatpisheh tweeted Sunday.
Falahatpishes, too, removed his tweet Monday and in another tweet said he still considers the Assad family a "spider's web". "That's why I spent a decade of my life to recover Syria's debts to Iran," he wrote, but added that he distinguishes between the Assad family and the "true and rightful resistance movement."
Many of those who commented on his tweet accused him of cowardice for backing from his original position under pressure. "Look out of the window, the black van [of the security forces] has left the alleyway. It is too obvious that they called you to direct you to the right path,” one of the comments said.
Similar concerns were voiced by Bahram Parsaei, a member of parliament until 2020, who also claimed the Assad government owed $30 billion to Iran. “What will happen to this huge sum of money now?” he asked in an X post. He pointed out that according to Article 80 of the Iranian Constitution, any non-refundable foreign loans should have been approved by the Parliament.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday that he had ordered the Israeli military to "seize" the demilitarized zone that lies between the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, saying the 1974 disengagement agreement with Syria “has collapsed”.
”We will not allow any hostile force to establish itself on our border,” the Israeli prime minister said after referring to the ousting of Iran-allied Bashar al-Assad as a “historic day”.
The Israeli military announced the deployment of troops on Sunday morning, adding that the Israeli military is “not interfering with the internal events in Syria”, while the area is a key point to keep the country secure.
The UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) has been in place for over 50 years to monitor the 80km (50-mile) long strip of land 24 hours a day.
Since the October 7 Hamas attacks last year, the issue of cross-border incursions has become an ever-looming threat to Israel, which is on a state of high alert. Several areas around along the border were declared closed military zones on Sunday.
In a clear message to Syria, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sar released a statement Saturday night saying: “Over the past 24 hours, armed forces have entered the buffer zone on the Syrian side of the border with Israel. Among other actions, attacks were carried out against UNDOF forces in the area.
“Israel is concerned about violations of the 1974 Disengagement Agreement between Israel and Syria, which also pose a threat to its security, the safety of its communities, and its citizens, particularly in the Golan Heights region. The State of Israel does not intervene in the internal conflict in Syria.”
According to Israel’s Mako, however, the Israeli military has resumed Operation Good Neighbor, a project set up in 2016 which saw both civilians and rebel militia such as Al Nusra Front treated in Israel’s field hospital near the border in a bid to maintain peace. Since then there have been more than 110 such operations carried out.
“The IDF provided aid to Syrians on the other side of the border for two primary reasons. Firstly, we have a moral imperative. We can’t stand by watching a severe humanitarian crisis without helping the innocent people stuck in the middle of the conflict. We also believe that the aid will ultimately create a less hostile environment across the border and that will lead to improved Israeli security,” a statement said.
Around 200,000 residents of the Hauran region of southwestern Syria were part of the program, including roughly 400 families living in tents near the Israel-Syria border. Others lived in villages or out in the open. Half of those receiving aid were children.
Over 4,000 people have so far been brought to Israel to receive treatment, including hundreds of children with further transfers of medicine, supplies, and equipment being sent across the border.
In addition to medical aid, the project has seen over 450,000 liters of fuel transferred for heating, operating water wells, and ovens in bakeries. A further seven generators, water pipes to rebuild Syrian infrastructure, and equipment for a temporary school in the region were transferred.
The Israeli military said it had also transferred 40 tons of flour to bakeries, 225 tons of food, 12,000 packages of baby formula, 1,800 packages of diapers, 12 tons of shoes, and 55 tons of cold weather clothing.
Six successive prime ministers in Israel have tried to broker a peace deal with Syria but as yet, it has remained elusive, Israel’s archenemy Iran deeply entrenched with the ruling Assad government.
"The determination of Syria’s future and decisions about its destiny must remain in the hands of the Syrian people, without any destructive interference or external imposition," the Iranian Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
Iran, which was a key ally of Bashar al-Assad, has provided military, financial, and political support to maintain the former Syrian president's grip on power since the outbreak of the civil war in 2011. Iran’s backing included sending weapons, financial assistance, military advisors, and elite forces like the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), as well as allied militias.
In addition to urging a halt to conflicts, Iran’s statement, which followed the news of Assad fleeing the country, called for the safety of all Syrian citizens, the preservation of religious sites, and the protection of diplomatic and consular missions in accordance with international law.
"Tehran would continue its consultations with key regional stakeholders to promote security and stability in the country," it added.
"The long-standing and friendly relations between the peoples of Iran and Syria are expected to continue with a wise and forward-looking approach, based on shared interests and the fulfillment of international legal commitments," the statement concluded.
Meanwhile, Ahmad Nadri, a member of Iran’s parliament, suggested that the country shift its strategic focus following Assad’s downfall.
He proposed that Iran prioritize nuclear testing and reinvigorate the so-called resistance front, which he views as crucial for Iran’s regional influence post-Syria crisis.
Mohsen Rezaei, a member of the Expediency Council and an IRGC former commander wrote on his X account: "The fate of Syria must be determined by its people. The exploitation of foreign actors will result in nothing but the repetition of the Libya, Afghanistan, and Iraq models."
Iran, along with Russia, have tightened their grip on Russia in recent years, both having large swathes of military infrastructure across the country.
Images published by Al Arabiya show Syrians storming the Iranian embassy Sunday, breaking windows, and damaging furniture, in a sign that Tehran's influence is no longer welcome.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman confirmed to Tehran Times that diplomats and staff had evacuated the embassy before armed forces arrived. Esmail Baghaei said that all personnel were now safe and in good health.
State-affiliated Iranian media have also softened their language in response to Assad’s fall. Before the collapse, opposition forces were regularly referred to as "terrorists" or "takfiris," but now they are being described as "armed opposition groups" or "militias," reflecting a shift in Iran’s public messaging.
Fars News, affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), reported on the reasons behind the fall of Assad's government, saying that “the Syrian president did not pay enough attention to Iran’s advice regarding democracy and popular defense."
"The lack of popular support for the government, due to the dire economic situation, the weakening of the army, and corruption, along with the Syrian government's reliance on promises from foreign powers in exchange for abandoning resistance, are among the key mistakes," the government aligned publication wrote on Sunday.
Nadergholi Ebrahimi, a representative from Arak, and Hamid Rasaee, a representative from Tehran, have called for a closed session of parliament to discuss the situation as Tehran faces losing a key stronghold, the route key between Iran and the Mediterranean.
“The parliament needs updated, accurate, and clear information about the situation in light of the current regional circumstances,” Rasaee said.
Political analyst Rouhollah Rahimpour told Iran International that there appears to be no comprehensive or systematic analysis of the situation in Syria within Iran’s media.
“Some media outlets consider this a victory for Israel, while others view it as an internal Syrian matter,” he noted.
According to Rahimpour, Iran's internal calculations regarding Syria have been so disrupted by the recent developments that the government is struggling to form a clear stance on its position.
Costs of supporting Assad
The Islamic Republic’s support for Assad has come at a high cost. Human losses include over 2,100 Iranian forces killed in Syria, referred to as “Defenders of the Shrine,” and an estimated 7,308 Iranian casualties overall since 2011 when the crackdown on anti-Assad demonstrations turned into a civil war.
Financially, the cost of intervention is staggering. Former Iranian parliament members Heshamatollah Falahatpisheh and Bahram Parsaei have separately stated that Iran spent at least $30 billion in Syria, a figure that dwarfs other regional expenditures. This amount equals nearly 140 months of cash subsidies for Iran’s entire population, further fueling domestic frustration over the government’s priorities. However, a government document hacked last year revealed that Syria owes Iran $ 50 billion.
In addition to free oil supplies and loans to Assad's government, the Islamic Republic spent untold billions on its military involvement.
Internationally, Assad’s fall is seen as a significant blow to Tehran. A US official told CNN that the events in Syria mark the collapse of Iran’s broader strategy in the region. President-elect Donald Trump weighed in, suggesting that Assad fled after losing Russian support, framing both Russia and Iran as weakened powers.
The Israeli military announced a deployment in the UN-monitored buffer zone with Syria, emphasizing a defensive posture without direct involvement in Syrian affairs. Meanwhile, Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan called for a new Syria that does not pose a threat to its neighbors.
Since 2013, Iran’s presence in Syria has been justified by officials as a mission to protect Shia holy sites from Takfiri groups. However, evidence shows Tehran’s true aim was to bolster Assad’s government, a key ally.
IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency admitted in 2020 that the Quds Force had been instrumental in training Syrian forces to suppress opposition, leveraging tactics used during Iran’s own protests.
The Islamic Republic’s involvement also included the recruitment of foreign fighters, such as the Fatemiyoun Division (Afghans) and Zainabiyoun Brigade (Pakistanis).
With Assad’s government now toppled, the Islamic Republic’s decades-long gamble in Syria appears increasingly costly, both financially and politically, as questions mount about its influence in the region and its ability to sustain its ambitions.