Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's rule has ended, the country's army command announced early Sunday, with Syrian prime minister expressing readiness to hand over the government to the opposition forces who ousted Assad in a lightning offensive.
Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi Jalali said he would not leave Syria and was ready to hand over power to the rebels.
"We are ready to cooperate with whoever the people choose," he said in a pre-recorded video from his home, shortly after rebels entered Damascus and announced that the capital was "now free of Assad".
The head of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a UK-based opposition war monitor, said early Sunday that Assad left the country for an undisclosed location.
Syria's army command told officers that Assad's rule has ended, according to Reuters.
Thousands of Syrian people congregated at a main square in Damascus in cars and on foot, waving and chanting "Freedom" from the 50-year Assad family rule.
"We celebrate with the Syrian people the news of freeing our prisoners and releasing their chains and announcing the end of the era of injustice in Sednaya prison," the rebels said.
The Syrian government had detained thousands of people in Sednaya, a large military prison on the outskirts Damascus.
"All Syrians are saying that liberating Sednaya's prison is more significant than destroying Berlin's wall. Years of fear, torture, death, and subjugation will end tonight," one user wrote on X hours before the end of Assad's rule.
A senior advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei met Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on Friday, an Iranian lawmaker confirmed, amid reports that the Syrian president is desperately reaching out to his friends and foes to secure his grip on authority.
Ali Larijani, the senior Iranian politician who visited Syria last month as Khamenei's special envoy, travelled to Damascus and met Assad to express Tehran's full support for him, according to Iranian MP Yaghoub Rezazadeh and the state-run Al-Alam TV.
The meeting was held as rebels have captured several cities in the country's north, east and south including Homs, Hama, Aleppo, Deraa, and Deir ez-Zor. Opposition activists and a rebel commander said on Saturday that the armed rebels have reached the suburbs of Damascus
The insurgents were active in the Damascus suburbs of Maadamiyah, Jaramana and Daraya, said Rami Abdurrahman, the head of UK-based war monitor Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
Biden administration officials, watching the astonishing speed of the Syrian rebels' advance, increasingly see the possibility of Assad's government falling within days, CNN reported Saturday citing five US officials.
The advances come amid signs of reduced support for Assad from his key allies. Iranian-backed forces and the Syrian army have reportedly withdrawn from several positions, and there is little indication that Tehran is prepared to commit substantial forces to defend Assad.
Iran began to evacuate its military commanders and personnel including senior Quds Force commanders from Syria on Friday, New York Times reported, citing regional officials and three Iranian officials.
While the Syrian government insists that Assad is still in Damascus, CNN reported on Saturday that the Syrian president is not at any of the locations in Damascus where he is expected to be. "Assad’s Presidential Guard are no longer deployed at his usual place of residence, as they would be if he was there," the report said, citing informed sources.
Overture to Trump at the eleventh hour
Syria's longtime ruler is making a last-ditch attempt to remain in power, including indirect diplomatic overtures to the US and President-elect Donald Trump, Bloomberg reported on Saturday, citing people with direct knowledge of the situation.
He has told the US via the United Arab Emirates that he is ready to cut all involvement with Iran-backed militant groups, such as Hezbollah, should Western powers wield influence to stem the fighting.
In another initiative, Assad has dispatched a senior Christian leader to meet Hungarian President Viktor Orban, an ally of Trump, to relay what he sees as an existential threat to Syria’s Christian minority if Islamist rebels prevail.
"The intention was that Orban, a Trump ally, would convey this danger to the incoming US president," the Bloomberg report said, citing sources.
Earlier in the day, Trump said the US should not get involved in the conflict in Syria, as it is not the US' fight.
"Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, & THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!," Trump said in a post on his Truth Social account.
The foreign ministers of Iran, Russia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iraq, Jordan and Egypt issued a joint statement on Saturday warning about the threat the Syria crisis poses to regional security, as rebels threaten Bashar al-Assad's rule from north and south.
The eight foreign ministers said a political solution was needed to stop military operations and protect civilians in Syria. The joint statement added that the crisis in Syria posed a threat to regional and international security.
"The Syrian crisis needs a political solution that leads to a halt to military operations," the eight foreign ministers said, calling for the cessation of military operations to prepare for the beginning of an inclusive political process.
The statement was released hours after the foreign ministers of Iran, Russia and Turkey - the three guarantor states of the so-called Astana Process - met in Doha over Syria’s escalating crisis, with Abbas Araghchi and Sergey Lavrov calling for continued talks between the Syrian government and some of the opposition.
"There was a consensus among all participants that the conflicts must end immediately, Syria's territorial integrity must be respected, and most importantly, political dialogues between the Syrian government and legitimate opposition groups must continue," Araghchi told reporters Saturday after he met with Russian and Turkish foreign ministers. He did not clarify which groups he considers as legitimate.
However, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov emphasized that the Islamist insurgent group Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham in Syria is a terrorist group. He called for dialogue between the Syrian government and the "legitimate opposition," urged an immediate end to hostile activities in Syria, and added that Russia is doing all it can to prevent terrorists from prevailing in the country.
"We firmly reiterate our message about the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Syria," he said. "We call for an immediate end to military action and the start of dialogue between the government and legitimate opposition forces."
Araghchi also held separate meetings with Qatar’s Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani and Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan on the sidelines of the Doha Forum. According to Iranian media, Araghchi described the discussions as focused on Syria, emphasizing support for its people, preserving the country’s territorial integrity, and avoiding regional fallout. He added that no clear decisions have been made yet, as consultations are ongoing.
Syrian insurgents have achieved their most significant battlefield victories since the civil war began 13 years ago. On Saturday, they reported securing Sanamayn, a strategic town just 20 kilometers south of Damascus, and taking control of Quneitra in the Syrian Golan near the Israeli border.
The advances come amid signs of reduced support for Assad from his key allies. Iranian-backed forces and the Syrian army have reportedly withdrawn from several positions, and there is little indication that Tehran is prepared to commit substantial forces to defend Assad. Similarly, Russia’s involvement has waned, with reports of troop withdrawals as Moscow has committed most of its forces to its invasion of Ukraine.
Turkey, Iran, and Russia have long been engaged in talks over Syria’s future through the Astana peace process. While Turkey supports the political and armed opposition to Assad, Iran and Russia remain his primary backers. However, the recent developments highlight a shifting dynamic, with Assad’s allies appearing less willing or able to maintain their earlier levels of support.
The upcoming trilateral talks in Doha are expected to address these shifts and explore ways to stabilize the region amidst the ongoing rebel surge and Assad’s weakening hold on power.
Iran’s foreign ministry has dismissed reports that its embassy in Damascus is being evacuated. Meanwhile, some Iranian media outlets have started to acknowledge the possibility that Bashar al-Assad could be overthrown in the near future.
Foreign ministry’s spokesperson Esmail Baghaei announced on Saturday that “The news regarding the evacuation of the Embassy of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Damascus is not true, and it continues its activities as usual.”
Syrian insurgents have made unexpected territorial gains in the past ten days, capturing large cities and positioning themselves just 200 km north of the capital Damascus. Iranian-backed forces have withdrawn from many positions together with the Syrian army, with no sign that Tehran is willing to commit large forces to defend Assad’s rule. His other ally, Russia, has also been largely inactive, with reports of some forces leaving Syria, as Moscow is bogged down in its invasion of Ukraine.
One of the more influential news websites in Tehran, Rouydad 24, carried an interview on Saturday with a well-known Iranian analyst, Mohammad Bayat, who said that Assad’s days as president of Syria might be numbered.
“Damascus is effectively under siege, and Bashar al-Assad will sooner or later relinquish power—unless Iran or Russia take significant action in the coming days to slow this trajectory. Otherwise, we must prepare to adjust our relations with a new government in Syria,” Bayat said.
This represents a rare candid acknowledgment permitted in Tehran's state-controlled media, which has consistently downplayed the significance of events in Syria. Meanwhile, many observers worldwide view Assad’s successive defeats as a major setback for Iran’s Islamic government.
Bayat in his assessment also said, “HTS forces have now entered Homs, captured Daraa, and there is even talk of their control over As-Suwayda, previously known as a stronghold of Assad's social base…Given the collapse of the Syrian army, they have concluded that moving toward Damascus is also achievable.”
In interviews with Arab media on Friday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also spoke with less certainty and commitment about Assad.
“We are not fortune-tellers, and it is impossible to say or predict that Bashar al-Assad will fall; however, the resistance will certainly fulfill its duty,” Araghchi said, referring to regional forces operating under Tehran’s direction.
The insurgents prepared to continue their rapid advance on Saturday, while government forces scrambled to reinforce collapsing frontlines and launched bombardments on insurgent positions around Homs in an effort to preserve President Bashar al-Assad's 24-year rule.
Syria's military reported conducting airstrikes around Hama and Homs while bolstering forces on that front. It also stated it was repositioning troops near Daraa and Suweida, without addressing the rebels' capture of these areas.
The stunning advances by Syrian rebel forces, which could ultimately unseat Bashar al-Assad, threaten to dismantle two decades of costly Iranian efforts to create dominance in the region.
Hardline Islamist-led opposition forces are just as much a threat to Iran as they are to Assad, a Syrian analyst told the Eye for Iran podcast.
“Iran's real borders, from the Iranian regime's perspective, are not in Iran. Iran's borders are in Syria,” said Qutaiba Idlbi, a senior fellow with the Washington DC-based Atlantic Council covering Syria.
Tehran has extended its influence to the Mediterranean through its Lebanese ally Hezbollah, using Syria, which has been under Assad family rule for decades, as a key conduit.
“Iran uses Syria as a land bridge to other places. As we've seen since 2019 there has been an extensive Iranian effort through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to try to get to Jordan through Syria using illicit networks. They've been trying to smuggle weapons and build networks within Jordan to try to have more influence over the country,” said Idlbi.
But that land bridge is currently not operational in part due to heavy Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian interests in Syria. Iran’s alleged smuggling routes supplying Hezbollah and alleged IRGC weapons facilities have been the target of Israel for more than a year.
Because of its geographic strategic importance, Iran invested heavily in Syria over the years spending tens of billions of dollars, securing investment projects like allowing Iran to control phosphate mines and take over 5- thousand hectares of farmland and 1-thousand of oil and gas, according to Reuters.
Under the late President Ebrahim Raisi, Tehran and Damascus signed a “strategic cooperation memorandum of understanding."
Syria is of vital importance to Iran and its quest for regional hegemony, but there have been more recent blows to the Iran-backed axis losing access to key border crossings.
US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), an alliance of Syrian Kurdish fighters, seized the eastern city of Deir ez-Zor and a nearby Iraqi-Syrian border crossing used by Iran to arm Lebanon's Hezbollah, Reuters reported on Friday.
Ultimately this undermines Iran's ability to rescue Assad.
As Iran's position weakens, Assad may become even less willing to abandon his closest ally, despite alleged pressure from the United States and Israel.
The reason, according to Idlbi, is that Iran may represent Assad's only viable chance for survival—and vice versa. Idlbi added that while Assad might tell world leaders he is willing to distance himself from Iran, he is unlikely to follow through, given his reputation for dishonesty.
"He [Assad] does have the reputation of being a big liar, basically, where no one can really trust a word that comes out or any promise or commitment that he makes for sure."
So far, there is no sign that Iran is planning to militarily intervene to save Assad. Local sources are reporting that some Iranian forces are withdrawing into Iraq from eastern Syria.
On the world stage Iran is full of bluster, Idlbi argued.
While the Iranian establishment is publicly supporting Assad, there is only so much aid Iran may be able to provide as city after city falls to the insurgents' lightning advance.
Convincing Iranians to fight in the war in Syria may be another challenge, said Idlbi.
Idlbi, who fled Syria after being imprisoned twice and faced torture for his political activities, said Iran would not be able to find an airport to land their plane.
Iran and its regional militia fighters, chief among them Hezbollah and Hamas, are all degraded after more than a year of war with Israel.
Other than sending Iran-backed Iraqi Shi'ite militias to Syria in addition to recruiting forces from Afghanistan, Iran's military might is limited but their determination is unbowed, according to Idlbi.
“I don't think Iran will stop looking for a solution. I think they're actively trying to break some of those boundaries to be able to provide the support to Assad.”
“Without Syria, the regime [Iran] would really lose a lot of its intelligence and military capabilities and leverage over countries in the region.”
And just how far Iran could go to salvage its stronghold on Syria largely depends on Russia’s next move.
It appears Russia isn’t going to save Assad like it did in 2015 by shoring up its rule with airstrikes and troop deployments. The Kremlin told all Russian citizens to flee Syria Friday as rebel forces continue to make advances in the north.
Idlbi said Russia doesn’t appear willing or even capable of saving Assad this time as Putin is preoccupied in Ukraine.
“It seems some in Russia, specifically in the Kremlin, are thinking maybe enough is enough. Maybe we've invested a lot in Assad. We have an important base in Syria's coast, in Latakia and Tartus.”
The lack of action on Russia’s part harms Iran, despite the hundreds of drones Tehran has sent to Russia to aid its full-scaled invasion of Iran.
You can watch the full episode of Eye for Iran featuring the Atlantic Council's Qutaiba Idlbi, on YouTube or listen on Spotify, Apple, Amazon, Castbox or any other major podcast platform.
Some Iranian politicians and state-controlled media appear to be promoting a parallel narrative about huge Syrian military losses seemingly aimed at reassuring the Tehran's ideological supporters that the so-called axis of resistance it leads remains intact.
Iran's tightly controlled media has largely remained silent on the insurgents' advances, adhering to the official ideological stance that emphasizes the supposed strength of Syria's government, bolstered by support from Iran and Russia.
However, since Thursday evening, Iranian state television has adjusted its tone regarding developments in Syria, referring to the insurgents as "the armed opponents of Assad"—a neutral term compared to the earlier characterization as ISIS extremists.
This could indicate that Tehran is gradually realizing that the landscape is changing and "the armed opponents of Assad" are likely to be in far better position than the government forces.
The shock advance has been led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former affiliate of al-Qaeda that has been designated a terrorist organization by the United States.
The "axis of resistance" is a term coined by Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to describe anti-US and anti-Israeli groups and governments in the Middle East, on whom Iran has spent billions of dollars since 2011 to secure their support.
Following Israeli strikes on Hezbollah and Hamas, the axis of resistance groups appear to have lost most of their ability to influence events. With Iran's air defense largely damaged or destroyed by Israel Iran cannot lent Syria and its proxy groups in the region serious support, fearing further Israeli attacks.
Nonetheless, despite advances by hardline Islamist-led insurgents and the fall of several cities in Syria, Iranian media - particularly state television - continues to promote exaggerated and demonstrably false reports of Syrian army victories and the recapture of lost territories.
"We know that the terrorists' advances in Syria have been blocked, and Iran and Russia have dealt them fatal blows," Beham Saeedi, Secretary of the parliament's National Security Committee, said.
"Assad's opponents' advances are temporary, and I can say with a high degree of certainty that the terrorists were defeated by the axis of resistance before and will be defeated again," Saeedi added, further accusing Israel and the United States of being behind the renewed HTS insurgency and likening it to an attack by Israel on Syria.
"Israel has done everything in its power to weaken the axis of resistance, and Iran will do whatever it takes to continue supporting it."
Meanwhile, Iranian state TV commentator Hassan Hanizadeh told the press in Tehran that Israel is indirectly involved in the war in Syria.
"Netanyahu, has started a new phase in weakening the axis of resistance with the help of the United States and Turkey ... in the coming days the situation will change in the interest of the Syrian government."
Hanizadeh reiterated that following the cease-fire with Hezbollah, Israel has shifted the battlefront to Syria by indirectly using the HTS to weaken the axis of resistance.
In the latest sign of a possible shift in Iran's media policy, state television in Tehran started to acknowledge that the relatively more moderate Syrian National Liberation Front is fighting Assad's forces along with the HTS.