Unprecedented energy shortage rattles Iranian industries

As internet restrictions and social media blackouts continue in Iran, in spite of promises from President Masoud Pezeshkian to lift them, even the restricted local media have called for the resignation of his communications minister.

Sattar Hashemi has become a popular scapegoat for Iran’s complex censorship system, even if the dossier is largely out of his hands and run by the country’s ruling clerics and the security establishment.

Sazandegi columnist Faezeh Momeni said that "Hashemi has not even started the process of lifting the filtering, four months after he got the parliament's vote of confidence as IT and Communication Minister.”

An open letter called on President Masoud Pezeshkian, who in his election campaign promised to lift restrictions, "to appoint a new minister who would be committed to put an end to filtering."

The Minister of Economy, Abdolnasser Hemmati, recently said that "80 percent of Iranians use internet blockage circumvention tools [VPNs] to overcome the filtering and that imposes a cost of two million rials per month (around $3) on every Internet user."

He also said that "filtering causes heavy losses for the economy by restricting people's livelihood,” but only said that filtering is likely to be lifted gradually to avoid risking damage to “infrastructure”.

However, Iranian lawyer Kambiz Nowruzi told Sazandegi that lifting internet restrictions requires no specific infrastructure. “The decision to lift filtering only requires the approval of a majority—half plus one—of the 12 members of a committee, six of whom are representatives of the Pezeshkian administration," he said.

“If Pezeshkian can secure the support of at least one of the two representatives from the parliament or one of the four representatives from security organizations, the filtering can be lifted.”

He said the current filtering is illegal as per the country’s constitution which guarantees the public’s right to access information.

"From a legal point of view, the President can lift the filtering, but political and administrative realities of the country do not allow him to do that,” Nowruzi added.

In this year’s Freedom House report on internet freedom, the rights watchdog ranked Iran third in the world’s least free countries on digital freedom.

“The regime has taken steps to make access to the global internet more cumbersome and expensive, and drive users to a domestic version of the internet where authorities can more effectively control content and monitor users,” its report said.

“The regime also employs extensive censorship, surveillance, content manipulation, and extralegal harassment against internet users, making Iran’s online environment one of the world’s most restrictive.”

Since the 2022 uprising, the government has instructed internet service providers to increase their prices as much as 40 percent, making access significantly more expensive while localized internet shutdowns have continued.

In February, the Supreme Council for Cyberspace prohibited the use of unlicensed virtual private networks (VPNs) and pushed users seeking to access blocked or filtered web content to use domestic circumvention tools.

Internet expert Saeed Souzangar told Sazandegi newspaper that "using VPNs imposes a heavy burden on the backbone of the country's Internet system by increasing the volume of data transfers across the network."

It also diverts vast amounts of revenue to foreign companies such as Elon Musk’s Starlink. The website wrote, "There are at least 20,000 Starlink terminals in Iran and every one of them is paying at least $100 to Starlink, which adds up to $2 million per month."

Speaking about the mounting pressure on the minister of communications, Akbar Montajabi, the editor-in-chief of Sazandegi, told Rouydad24, ”The minister fears reaction by hardliners."

He said the minister is "an inefficient man who does not understand the requirements of modern living,” with millions of Iranians depending on the internet for commercial purposes.

"If we have the people with us, no power can ground us, and we will not encounter problems. We must have the people on our side and consider the people's problems as our own and have solutions for them," Masoud Pezeshkian said during the meeting held on the occasion of the fortieth anniversary of the establishment of the ministry.

Iran's intelligence apparatus is comprised of several parallel agencies overseen by different state bodies.

The Ministry of Intelligence, established shortly after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, was the first. It was later joined by intelligence organizations within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the police. Most recently, in 2023, the Judiciary established its own intelligence department, creating a fourth parallel structure.

President Pezeshkian emphasized the need to foster hope in society, saying, "We must do something so that people become hopeful about the government and about the future of the country,” according to a readout of the meeting from his office.

Urging closer scrutiny of officials' performance, Pezeshkian added, "We must assess whether those entrusted with responsibility have performed effectively. We must address why problems remain despite our capabilities and entrust the country to capable and expert managers."

Amid widespread public discontent over power outages and energy shortages disrupting businesses and daily life in Iran, the Judiciary has instructed provincial prosecutors to coordinate with intelligence, security, and law enforcement agencies to prevent unrest as was seen in 2019 and 2022.

The UN fact-finding mission, established following the 2022 nationwide protests, has accused Iran's intelligence apparatus, including the Ministry of Intelligence, of human rights violations, including the extraction of forced confessions from political prisoners.

The Iranian security apparatus, which also has smaller intelligence entities, has a Council for Intelligence Coordination comprised of at least 13 to 16 separate active intelligence agencies, according to different sources.

Most of these parallel agencies have strong ties with the IRGC and the judiciary as well as the office of the Supreme Leader. The intelligence minister, the interior minister, foreign minister, and the country’s chief justice are members of the body. The IRGC’s Intelligence Organization, and its Intelligence Protection Organization, and their counterparts in the traditional Army and Police force as well as cyber police are some of the other members.

“Our approach to the embassy matter is fundamentally diplomatic. Both sides are prepared, and we are actively engaged in consultations to facilitate the reopening of embassies in both countries,” government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani said during a Tuesday press conference.

Speculation had followed a statement by the foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei last week, raising questions around the reopening.

“I prefer not to use the word ‘imminent,’” Baghaei said. “This is on the agenda, and as soon as the necessary conditions are met—both in terms of security and politics—we will move forward with reopening the embassy.”

The delay came on the back of the killing of a local employee of Iran's embassy, Davood Bitaraf, killed in a shooting. Baghaei blamed "terrorists" for the attack and urged the Syrian transitional government to bring the perpetrators to justice.

“The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is seriously pursuing the matter through appropriate channels and various diplomatic and international avenues,” he added.

Video footage from earlier this month, on the day President Bashar al-Assad fled to Moscow, showed militants storming the Iranian embassy, ransacking documents, and vandalizing the premises.

Shattered glass and broken furniture was scattered throughout the building. Iranian media reported that the staff had evacuated before the takeover.

Syria’s new de facto leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, said in an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat that Iran’s influence in the region has been significantly weakened. Sharaa’s group, Hayat al-Tahrir Sham (HTS), recently defeated Assad’s forces in a rapid takeover, marking a turning point in Syria’s relationship with Iran, which had supported Assad since 2011 in the face of civil war.

“The Iranian project in the region has been set back by 40 years,” Sharaa said, threatening a key military and economic hub for Iran which had bases and forces spread across Syria.

On Monday, the head of Iran’s judiciary instructed the Attorney General and provincial prosecutors to coordinate with intelligence, security, and law enforcement agencies to prevent unrest, sensing widespread public dissatisfaction over power and gas outages.

Speaking during a meeting of the Supreme Judicial Council, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni Ejei stated, “The Attorney General and prosecutors across the country, in direct cooperation with the intelligence, security, and law enforcement agencies, should take all appropriate measures and arrangements to stabilize and strengthen the security of the people and citizens, and, as in the past, and even with greater firmness, take the relevant measures so that the enemy's conspiracy to create insecurity…is neutralized."

Ejei, widely recognized as one of Iran’s most prominent human rights violators, warned President Masoud Pezeshkian's administration that the recent wave of nationwide shutdowns caused by air pollution and the government’s failure to meet energy demands could spell unrest. People are struggling to heat their homes in the bitter cold while the cost of living is soaring amid the worst economic recession in the Islamic Republic's history.

The government is bracing itself for action reminiscent of the 2019 and 2022 protests in which hundreds of Iranians were killed by security forces and tens of thousands were arrested.

Facing a 30% shortfall in natural gas supplies from its Persian Gulf fields, the Iranian government has turned to burning the highly polluting heavy oil mazut, shrouding Tehran and other cities in dense smog.

Years of under-investment in the energy sector, exasperated by technology sanctions by the West, has pushed Iran into a downward spiral in natural gas production.

Gas pressure is falling in its main production field in the Persian Gulf that it shares with Qatar. Only the largest Western oil companies have the technological capability to remedy the situation.

The Pezeshkian government has limited options to address the crisis, apart from a complete overhaul of the country’s foreign policy and opening its economy to global engagement.

The latest wave of economic and public sector shutdowns, which began on December 9, has led to widespread closures of schools, universities, and government offices across many provinces.

The electricity and fuel crisis, combined with a sharp decline in the national currency’s value since September, has fueled an increasingly volatile public mood.

Iranians are facing daily price hikes while also witnessing a series of regional setbacks for the government. The most unexpected blow was the rapid overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad, which forced Iranian forces to retreat from Syria, reportedly with Russian assistance.

Recent statements saying that the government is in touch with Syria's new ruling parties reflects possible concern about the perception of its diminishing authority and credibility among the population, both following the debacle in Syria and the deteriorating economic conditions at home.

On Sunday, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei delivered a speech warning that those within Iran who align themselves with foreign powers, particularly the United States, would face severe consequences.

During the 2022 protests, triggered by the death in police custody of Mahsa Amini, arrested for not wearing her hijab properly, Khamenei blamed the US and foreign powers of having stoked the fires of protests.

"The fools smell the scent of kebab," Khamenei said on Sunday, using a metaphor to describe what he sees as misguided ambitions from those seeking to overthrow the Islamic Republic. "Anyone inside the country who chooses to serve the Americans, the Iranian people will trample them underfoot."

Khamenei has become a huge patron of the country's eulogists, inviting them to perform at ceremonies he holds at his residence for religious occasions such as commemoration ceremonies to mark the deaths of Shia saints. His predecessor, Ruhollah Khomeini who founded the Islamic Republic only used the services of clerics at such events.

Khamenei received a large group of eulogists who performed at his residence on Sunday. In his speech to the group, he spoke of the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and denied that Iran has proxy forces in the region, and said the eulogists were artists who “make jihad with words”.

"Eulogy is a real media tool ... for elucidation [of the truth],” he said.

Q. Are ‘eulogists’ clergymen?

Most ‘eulogists of the Prophet’s household’ (maddah-e ahl-e beyt) are laymen with no seminary training or place in the clerical hierarchy.

Q. What role do eulogists play in religious ceremonies?

Eulogists recite and sing verses in praise of the Prophet Muhammed and his household, particularly at ceremonies such as Ashura to mourn Shia Imams on the anniversary of their death. Professional eulogists have found a much more prominent role than clerics in these ceremonies in the past three decades.

Q. How many eulogists are there in Iran now?

Over 100,000 professional and amateur eulogists perform in Ashura and other religious ceremonies across Iran. However, there are no official figures on the number of professional eulogists who are members of large and small professional associations such as Khaneh-ye Maddahan (Eulogists' House).

Q. How do eulogists earn their living?

Professional eulogists earn their living mainly by performing at ceremonies for fixed fees alongside businesses they may run. Many others who may be considered amateurs have ordinary jobs or businesses and perform for free or a small ‘gift’ from the organizers of such events.

Some eulogists such as Mansour Arzi and Mahmoud Karimi, two of Khamenei’s favorites, have gained celebrity status in the past three decades. Iranian media have on many occasions alleged that ‘celebrity eulogists’ only attend ceremonies in return for very hefty fees.

In a recent online interview, Hamidreza Alimi, a eulogist who says earns his living by selling household appliances, claimed that some of his peers demand as much as two billion rials for a few hours of performance. He also alleged that these eulogists ask for cash payments to avoid paying taxes on their incomes.

Q. What benefits do eulogists receive from the government?

In 2015, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei ordered the establishment of a foundation to provide government welfare services including health insurance to professional eulogists.

The foundation, named after Dibil bin Ali al-Khuzai, a seventh-century Shia poet, does not have a separate budget. However, it receives huge donations from various government and state bodies such as the Islamic Propaganda Organization and municipalities for “cultural activities”.

Professional eulogists also enjoy numerous perks from government and state bodies including priority in the allocation of housing and loans.

Q. What is the relationship between eulogists and political groups?

Most ‘celebrity eulogists’ have strong ties with ultra-hardline political parties and groups and often use religious ceremonies to campaign for them during parliamentary and presidential elections.

In their speeches and performances, these eulogists freely attack political rivals. Some are known for slandering top officials of the rival camp with immunity.

Mansour Arzi, a veteran eulogist known for his notorious attacks on several presidents including Mohammad Khatami, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad when he fell from Khamenei’s favor, and Hassan Rouhani, published his own list of candidates in the parliamentary elections of February 2024.

Arzi officially supported Saeed Jalili in the snap presidential elections of July and on several occasions publicly attacked Masoud Pezeshkian for criticizing the harsh enforcement of hijab.

Eulogists are also often invited as pre-sermon speakers at state-sponsored Friday prayer gatherings.

Q. Are all eulogists aligned with the ruling political establishment?

Some eulogists only perform at the behest of religious groups organized by ordinary citizens and refuse to get involved in politics. Some others support reformists or dissident clerics such as the Qom-based Ayatollah Sayyid Sadiq Shirazi who is highly critical of Khamenei's religious views and rule.

Since the disputed elections of 2009 that brought Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to power, some eulogists have used the story of the martyrdom of the Prophet’s grandson, Imam Hussain, to express their opposition to an interpretation of Islam that the Islamic Republic has been promoting for four decades during the Ashura ceremonies held in Imam Hussain’s memory.

In July 2023, during an Ashura ceremony in Dezful, the eulogists leading the ceremony fearlessly sang lyrics that openly criticized the political establishment and its insistence on enforcement of hijab, an issue which has seen the country thrown into revolutionary fervor since 2022's Women, Life, Freedom uprising.