Regional events signal a chance to move beyond Tehran's influence

"Iran must respect the will of the Syrian people and the country's sovereignty and security. We warn them from spreading chaos in Syria and we hold them accountable for the repercussions of the latest remarks," Asaad Shaibani said on X.

His remarks, made on Monday, are the most direct and public warning by Syria’s new rulers to Tehran since the fall of Tehran's ally, President Bashar al-Assad.

The reaction follows calls from Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei On December 22, who said: “We predict that a strong and honorable movement will emerge in Syria, as the Syrian youth now have nothing to lose.

"Their schools, universities, homes, and streets are unsafe, so they must stand resolutely against those who design and execute insecurity and overcome them with determination.”

Ahmad al-Sharaa, the former rebel leader who now holds power in Syria, had previously criticized the Islamic Republic for its meddling in Syria by participating in the civil war since 2011, supporting the decades-long Assad dynasty.

He blamed Iran’s military presence and its allied militias which supported Assad for the death and displacement of millions of Syrians.

However, this is the first time Syria’s new officials have openly responded to remarks by Khamenei and other Iranian officials who oppose the group who deposed al-Assad in record time, and are now receiving international support.

Iran sided with Assad in the early days of a popular movement in Syria demanding a change of government. Soon Tehran began deploying troops and fighters to defend the government against protesters and rebels. Hundreds of thousands of Syrians died in the ensuing 13-year civil war.

This was not the first time Khamenei suggested Syria's new rulers would be toppled.

“Everyone should know that things will not remain as they are … Certainly, the courageous Syrian youth will rise up, resist, and, even at the cost of casualties, overcome this situation, he said in a speech this month.

Syria would be won back "just as the brave Iraqi youth, after the US occupation, with the help, organization, and leadership of our dear martyr Qasem Soleimani, managed to drive the enemy out of their homes and streets," Khamenei said.

"This may take a long time in Syria, but the outcome is inevitable and certain.”

Last week, Syria’s new leader Ahmed al-Sharaa said Syria's opposition had “set the Iranian project in the region back by 40 years,” signaling a major shift in Syria’s stance toward Iran.

“By removing Iranian militias and closing Syria to Iranian influence, we’ve served the region’s interests—achieving what diplomacy and external pressure could not, with minimal losses," he said.

Iran’s exit from Syria marks a serious setback for Tehran’s ‘Shiite Crescent’, built over the past two decades to extend its control west to the Mediterranean coast, by creating proxy groups in Iraq, supporting Assad in Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

"While Iran's vast desert regions have undeniable geographical beauty, they are not without their inherent complexities and strategic considerations; we aim to guarantee that the desert remains a secure and stable environment, free from any acts of malice or unrest," Radan added.

Elaborating on their locations, Radan explained that one command center will be established in Semnan, another in the Kerman and Yazd regions, and the central command will oversee operations in Sistan-Baluchestan and South Khorasan provinces.

Iran's Sistan-Baluchestan province has experienced numerous attacks attributed to Jaish al-Adl, a group notorious for ambushes, bombings, and other operations that have claimed the lives of both civilians and security personnel.

Jaish al-Adl advocates for an independent Balochistan, encompassing Baloch populations on both sides of the Iran-Pakistan border, and has carried out numerous armed attacks in southeastern Iran.

"SpaceX must comply with Iran's regulations, otherwise the Islamic Republic could disrupt its coverage," said Amir Mohammadzadeh Lajevardi, the former deputy minister for Information and Communication Technology.

Lajevardi, who is considered close to current thinking and decision-makers, made the remarks in an interview with the state television.

The remarks come after the Supreme Council of Cyberspace announced Iran would lift restrictions on some digital platforms like WhatsApp and Google Play while maintaining control on others.

Iranians who face some of the world's toughest internet restrictions have in recent months shared videos and photos of Starlink satellite internet terminals being installed on rooftops, raising expectations that this technology could soon render the government’s internet filtering efforts ineffective.

"In the two years since Washington green lit SpaceX’s satellite internet service," Forbes reported earlier this month, "an underground worldwide network of smuggling and advocacy has brought uncensored internet to thousands of people in the Islamic Republic."

The availability of Starlink is seen by many as a potential game-changer for bypassing state-imposed online restrictions, allowing greater access to unfiltered internet in Iran.

In October 2023, Iran's Ministry of Telecommunications demanded that SpaceX obtain licensing for Starlink operations and filed a complaint with the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) over unauthorized use in Iran, which resulted in a ruling in Iran's favor.

While over 60 countries have approved Starlink services, Iran is likely to demand access to user data—a request SpaceX would almost certainly reject.

The terminals typically cost around $500, depending on the model, with a monthly subscription fee of $110. However, in the Iranian market, prices are significantly higher, reaching up to three times the standard cost.

Those found using Starlink in Iran risk prosecution for possessing smuggled goods.

In November 2023, Iranian security forces confiscated 22 Starlink terminals, claiming they were CIA property intended for use by the office of dissident Sunni cleric Abdolhamid Esmail-Zehi.

Hossein Shamkhani, son of ex-security chief Ali Shamkhani, oversees a network of companies central to facilitating weapons shipments across the Caspian Sea to Moscow amid its ongoing war in Ukraine, the report said.

Through his Dubai-based company Crios Shipping LLC, the younger Shamkhani began moving missiles, drone components, and dual-use goods last year, relying on at least two ships.

The Bloomberg report cited information provided by more than a dozen unnamed US, UK, and European officials, along with others familiar with the transactions.

These shipments, according to sources cited by Bloomberg, are part of a barter arrangement in which Moscow pays Tehran with oil cargoes in order to bypass sanctions restricting both nations’ access to international financial systems.

“My understanding is the Shamkhani network ties into the drone contracts for use in Ukraine,” said John Bolton, former US National Security Advisor, now a senior fellow at the Foundation for American Security and Freedom.

Shamkhani’s trading prowess highlights Iran's broader use of a vast network of companies spanning commodities trading and hedge funds.

A family legacy of influence and controversy

Hossein Shamkhani’s ascent in global commerce and politics is intertwined with his father Ali Shamkhani’s legacy. As a long-serving Iranian defense minister and national security advisor, Ali Shamkhani has remained close to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, leveraging his influence even after stepping down from the Supreme National Security Council in 2023.

The Shamkhani family has faced repeated allegations of corruption and abuse of power. Iran International’s investigative journalist Mojtaba Pourmohsen has reported extensively on family members’ involvement in high-profile scandals, including accusations of illicit business dealings, ownership of extravagant properties and bank accounts abroad.

One particularly contentious episode involved their role in the collapse of a building in Khuzestan province in 2022, a tragedy that left dozens dead. The building’s owner, a businessman linked to the family, was found to have violated multiple construction regulations.

Hossein Shamkhani has denied any wrongdoing and rejected claims of involvement in illegal arms shipments or sanction-busting oil trades.

A lawyer representing him told Bloomberg that the allegations are baseless and lack supporting evidence. Similarly, Mohamed Al Hashmi, managing director of Dubai-based Milavous Group Ltd—another firm tied to Shamkhani—dismissed allegations of involvement in Iranian or Russian oil trading.

Complexities of sanctions and enforcement

The cross-Caspian shipments highlight challenges in enforcing Western sanctions. Ships linked to Shamkhani’s network, including the Sea Castle and Sea Anchor, have completed multiple trips between Iranian ports and Russia’s Astrakhan in the past year.

These vessels, though modest in size by global shipping standards, are believed to have been sufficient for transporting weaponry on the short Caspian routes.

Bloomberg’s analysis of ship tracking data suggests these voyages accelerated in 2023, coinciding with Russia’s increased reliance on Iranian arms for its operations in Ukraine.

Shamkhani’s maritime network extends beyond these two vessels. Bloomberg cited sources describing an extensive fleet of tankers and cargo ships controlled through entities such as Oceanlink Maritime DMCC and Koban Shipping LLC.

While the US Treasury has sanctioned several of these ships and their associated companies, enforcement has been complicated by frequent changes in ownership and the lack of direct links to Shamkhani in official records.

“Sanctions enforcement against these barter networks is a lot harder, particularly when you consider Russia’s historic dominance in the region,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

He emphasized the importance of transparency and international cooperation to expose these networks and curb their activities.

Expanding business empire and diplomatic implications

Beyond shipping, Shamkhani’s network includes a hedge fund operating in financial hubs such as London, Geneva, and Singapore, and a Dubai-based commodities trading firm dealing with Western oil companies.

Despite these connections, he has not been personally sanctioned by the US or European governments. This lack of direct penalties has fueled concerns about loopholes in current sanctions regimes, particularly as entities within Shamkhani’s network continue to conduct significant business with Chinese buyers using yuan transactions, avoiding the US financial system.

Both Iran and Russia have acknowledged their growing military cooperation without detailing specific arms deals.

While their collaboration appears not to inherently violate international law, it exposes participants to potential sanctions.

A State Department spokesperson warned of the broader security implications, saying, “This partnership threatens European security and illustrates how Iran’s destabilizing influence reaches beyond the Middle East and around the world.”

The allegations against Hossein Shamkhani, if substantiated, underscore the resilience of global sanctions evasion networks and the complexities of monitoring illicit trade.

With limited transparency and persistent geopolitical rivalries, success in curtailing Iran's sanctioned trade has eluded the West and its allies.

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar made the request in a letter to US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield, who is the rotating president of the UN Security Council.

In the letter, Sa’ar cited three attacks on Israel over the past week by the Houthis, one of which destroyed a school in Ramat Gan.

“I must underscore that the persistent acts of hostility by the Houthis are in flagrant violation of international law,” he said, calling them “an ongoing threat to international peace and security.”

The Houthis fired another missile at Israel on Tuesday, hours after Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz vowed to "behead" the Houthis' leaders.

"These days, when the Houthi terrorist organization is firing missiles at Israel, I want to convey a clear message to them at the beginning of my remarks: We have defeated Hamas, we have defeated Hezbollah, we have blinded Iran's defense systems and damaged the production systems, we have toppled the Assad regime in Syria, we have dealt a severe blow to the axis of evil, and we will also deal a severe blow to the Houthi terrorist organization in Yemen, which remains the last to stand," Katz said Monday.

"We'll severely cripple the Houthis, damage their strategic infrastructure, and we will behead their leaders – just as we did to Haniyeh, Sinwar and Nasrallah in Tehran, Gaza and Lebanon – we will do it in Hodeidah and Sana'a," Katz added.

Muhammad Ali al-Houthi, who sits on the Houthi political council in Yemen, sent a threatening message to the US and Saudi Arabia on Monday, saying that "if the Americans attack Yemen, we will attack their interests in the Middle East."

"We will have no red lines," he said, two days after the United States launched precision airstrikes targeting multiple military positions in Sana'a.

Israel's top diplomat on Tuesday instructed his country's diplomatic missions in the European Union and the United Kingdom to push for the designation of Houthis as a terrorist organization.

“The Houthis pose a threat not only to Israel but to the region and the entire world,” Sa’ar said in a statement, warning of the group’s threat to international shipping lanes and calling their designation as terrorists “the first and most basic step” in countering them.

The Houthis are designated as a terrorist organization by several countries, including the US, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, the United Arab Emirates, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and Israel. However, no European countries have listed the group as such to date.