An open wound: Families grieve five years after Iran downed flight PS752

Khamenei said the presence of American forces in Iraq is illegal and against the interests of the Iraqi people and government.

"Evidence and indications point to the Americans' efforts to solidify and expand their presence in Iraq, which must be firmly resisted as an act of occupation," he said in a meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani in Tehran.

Iran-backed armed groups in Iraq have been launching attacks against American forces and their allies in the region over the past decade.

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI), a coalition of Tehran-backed militants, said in a statement last year they would continue their attacks until the Americans are “expelled from the country, forced to submit and are defeated."

The IRI is not the only group of Iran-aligned Shia groups in Iraq.

The Popular Mobilization Units (PMU), known as the Hashd al-Shaabi in Arabic, is another umbrella group of primarily Shia armed factions in Iraq that receive support from Iran. Unlike the IRI, the PMU is a formal part of the Iraqi armed forces and reports directly to the Prime Minister.

In his meeting with Al-Sudani, Khamenei referred to the PMU as one of the key elements of power in Iraq, saying " the Hashd al-Shaabi must be preserved and further strengthened with utmost dedication."

Khamenei's remarks came three days after Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force Commander Esmail Qaani arrived in Baghdad to meet with leaders of the Shia factions including the Hashd al-Shaabi, Emirati outlet Erem News reported citing an Iranian source.

Ghaani was set to discuss Washington's pressure on the Iraqi government to dissolve the PMU or integrate it into the Iraqi armed forces, the report added.

The Hashd al-Shaabi was established in 2014 following a religious decree to combat Islamic State, which at the time had taken control of four Iraqi governorates and threatened Baghdad.

Supported by the IRGC, the groups wield considerable power over Iraq’s governance, military and energy infrastructure.

Despite their original mandate to combat ISIS, many of the militias have since expanded their activities, frequently targeting US forces and installations in Iraq with rockets and drones and exacerbating tensions between Tehran and Washington.

In an interview with Iran International, Iranian-Canadian Javad Soleimani, who lost his wife Elnaz Nabiyi in the shoot-down, explained that the film would incorporate the families' own 2021 fact-finding report and address key developments since.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) Aerospace Force shot down the Ukrainian airliner shortly after takeoff from Tehran, using two surface-to-air missiles on January 8, 2020.

Iranian authorities initially denied responsibility, only admitting to it three days later when confronted with intelligence and photographic evidence. Tehran has since continued to assert that the incident was the result of "human error."

Among those killed were 55 Canadian citizens and 30 permanent residents, as well as nationals from Iran, Ukraine, Sweden, Afghanistan, and the United Kingdom.

Soleimani and other families have since urged Canada and the affected countries to ensure Tehran faces justice. Expressing his frustration with Canada's response so far, Soleimani said, “Canada should have done a lot, and faster… it has been very hard on the families.”

“The most important issue bothering the families is that we still don’t know what happened that night. The Islamic Republic has not cooperated,” Soleimani said.

Soleimani argued that there is a lack of transparency and the withholding of critical information, including findings from the flight's black boxes. He told Iran International that countries in the international coordination group—Canada, Sweden, the UK, and Ukraine—have access to this information but have not shared it with the families.

There are currently three international judicial pathways underway over the downing, with Canada, Ukraine, Sweden, and the UK pursuing two.

In their case before the International Court of Justice, the four countries argue that Iran negligently and intentionally allowed Flight PS752 to be shot down, covered up the incident, mishandled the investigation, and harassed victims' families.

Ukraine, in its statement on the anniversary, said the countries would take steps to hold Tehran accountable before the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) – the UN aviation body – in the coming months.

Separately, the families have taken their fight to the International Criminal Court (ICC). The Association of Families of Flight PS752 Victims has submitted a legal request to the ICC prosecutor’s office, seeking to expand the ongoing investigation into alleged war crimes in Ukraine to include the Iranian missile strike that brought down Flight PS752.

Soleimani says the Canadian government did not back the families in this path. "The least Canada could have done is write a support letter, but they have not done that," he said.

The investigative film, titled “January 8, Frozen” is a way for the tragedy to be “visualized” and written into the history books in a significant way, Soleimani said. He also says the victims' families have united behind the film to raise awareness and highlight their ongoing efforts.

While Canada met one of the families’ major demands by listing the IRGC as a terrorist entity in 2024, Soleimani says there are many demands yet to be fully addressed.

He criticized the governments and the RCMP’s continued reluctance to open a criminal case, saying that, alongside Ukraine’s own criminal case, the two countries could have achieved much more.

When asked whether he believes the prorogation of Canada’s parliament after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation would impact the pursuit of justice, he said he was worried.

"Hopefully, it will not have an impact on the case before the ICJ,” he said, adding that “Whoever comes into power, we need more attention on PS752.”

Scheduled for release by the end of summer 2025, the film currently features several mothers of victims and will include contributions from more of the victims' families.

"If we don’t have the truth, there cannot be closure for any of the families. Justice can only happen, when there is also truth,” Soleimani said.

Ali Khamenei said on Wednesday Iran’s refusal to engage with the US, despite maintaining ties with Europe, showed Washington's broader diplomatic failure.

"The United States has failed in Iran and is now seeking to compensate for this defeat," he said in a meeting with a group of his supporters from the city of Qom.

The comments come around two weeks before Donald Trump’s inauguration and the likely return of his so-called maximum pressure sanctions policy on Iran.

Trump has said Iran cannot be allowed to gain nuclear weapons but has also suggest Washington is not seeking to topple the Islamic Republic by force.

Some Iranian officials and political figures, including aides to President Masoud Pezeshkian, have called for talks with Trump to mitigate punishing US-led sanctions.

Referring to Iran before the establishment of the Islamic Republic, Khamenei said, "America had effectively taken control of this country, but we wrested it away. Their grudge against our nation and revolution is profound."

In contrast to government officials and many others advocating for negotiations, Hossein Shariatmadari, Khamenei’s representative at Kayhan newspaper, denounced such proposals in an editorial, saying advocates for US negotiations are either "asleep, drunk or insane."

But in an apparent endorsement of Pezeshkian - an embattled relative moderate - Khamenei commended his stance against the United States and Israel, while urging officialdom to focus solely on the Islamic Republic’s interests in their policymaking.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told China’s CCTV in an interview published earlier in January that Tehran is ready for constructive and prompt nuclear negotiations.

Khamenei stressed the importance of supporting Iran-backed groups across the region, despite heavy blows they have received at Israel's hands, saying, “resistance remains alive and must grow stronger by the day.”

"The enemy's soft war aims to distort reality and separate it from public understanding," he said, warning against the influence of hostile propaganda on the public mood, which has soured after a year of economic and foreign policy setbacks.

"While you grow stronger, they claim you are weakening."

French President Emmanuel Macron this week warned Tehran's nuclear program is nearing the point of no return.

Iran says its uranium enrichment program is for peaceful purposes but has accelerated activity since Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal - officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) - during his first term and reimposed sanctions on Tehran.

"The Islamic Republic is fully prepared for all parties to return to the 2015 agreement and fulfill their mutual commitments," Pezeshkian said on Tuesday.

Last month, European powers France, Germany, and Britain warned that Iran’s actions had further eroded the agreement, noting that Tehran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium has no credible civilian justification.

Officers from the Counter Terrorism Command arrested the 40-year-old man at a property in Cricklewood, London, on Tuesday, on suspicion of conspiracy to commit grievous bodily harm.

After being taken to a west London police station, he was released on bail until April while investigations continue.

The arrest is linked to the ongoing investigation into the assault, which occurred on March 29. Two Romanian nationals were previously arrested after being extradited from Romania in December.

Nandito Badea, 20, and George Stana, 24, have been charged with wounding and wounding with intent to cause grievous bodily harm. They appeared at Westminster Magistrates’ Court on 18 December and were remanded in custody to appear at the Old Bailey on January 17.

Zeraati was stabbed outside his home in Wimbledon, south London, sustaining injuries to his leg. He was discharged from the hospital two days later.

According to a statement from the Metropolitan Police, the motive for the attack remains unclear.

However, in light of previous threats from Iranian intelligence targeting Iran International journalists, the investigation is being led by the Metropolitan Police's Counter Terrorism Command.

In 2022, Iran International temporarily relocated its television broadcasts from London to Washington, DC, after police uncovered direct threats against two other journalists at the organization and British intelligence services said they could no longer guarantee their safety.

This raises the question: what kind of threat does Tehran face to justify such a large-scale exercise?

If we assume the drill is not aimed at countering an internal coup against the IRGC itself, only two other scenarios remain: an external ground invasion or an internal armed group - or a popular uprising in Tehran against the government.

External invasion or internal armed group

Evidence suggests that the possibility of an external ground invasion targeting Tehran is entirely ruled out. Neither the US nor Israel has the logistical capabilities or preparedness for such an attack.

US military personnel in the Middle East number fewer than 50,000, and Israel lacks the geographical and logistical resources to carry out such an operation nearly 2,000 kilometers from its borders. Similarly, there is no known internal armed group with the capability or plans to attack Tehran.

Uprising of Tehran’s population against the government

With external or internal armed attacks ruled out, the remaining concern is the fear of a popular uprising. By announcing the involvement of 110,000 Basij forces, the IRGC spokesperson has implicitly acknowledged the seriousness of this threat.

This exercise appears to be a drill aimed at countering widespread public protests that could threaten critical government institutions.

The timing of the drill coincides with political shifts in the US, including the return of Donald Trump to the White House, and a weakening of Tehran’s regional position, which have raised concerns within the Islamic Republic’s ruling circles.

As the entity responsible for securing Tehran and sensitive government sites, the IRGC fears that any external attack, if it occurs, could coincide with internal unrest, potentially leading to the collapse of the government.

Basij forces were heavily deployed during the 2019 and 2022 protests, where they were accused of killing hundreds of citizens and arresting thousands.

Signs of government fear

Description of the threat: The IRGC spokesperson described the threat as "man-made," a clear reference to urban uprisings.

Similar drills: Just two months ago, a similar exercise took place near Tehran in Telo Road and the IRGC's Al-Mohammad Security Brigade headquarters, focusing on suppressing urban protests.

Lessons from Assad’s fall: The sudden collapse of Bashar al-Assad's government in Syria has deeply unsettled the Islamic Republic’s leaders. They fear a similar fate, particularly given the widespread public discontent and anger.

Economic crises: Concerns over the steep fall of the Iranian rial, the resulting economic repercussions, and the possibility of public uprisings if the government raises gasoline prices in the coming months are fueling these fears. An economic collapse could ignite widespread protests.

A reflection of deep-seated fear

These drills reflect the Islamic Republic’s profound fear of a popular uprising.

The publicized figure of 110,000 Basij forces is likely aimed at projecting large-scale strength and boosting morale within government ranks.

However, the reality remains that the primary threat to the Islamic Republic does not come from external borders but from the streets of Tehran and other Iranian cities.