Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev criticized Iran for a slew of alleged affronts, in a sign of mounting tension between the neighbors, including a jibe by a preacher accusing Baku of conspiring with Israel.
“The cleric from the city of Ardabil has repeatedly used insulting expressions against Azerbaijan, the Azerbaijani people and me,” Aliyev said during a press briefing on Tuesday.
Referring to Seyyed Hassan Ameli, the Friday Prayer Leader of Ardabil, Aliyev questioned Iran's leadership, asking, “What is his reaction, does he support this or not, and who will apologize to Azerbaijan? Will they apologize or not?”
The controversy stems from a recent event broadcast on IRIB News, where a local eulogist insulted both Aliyev and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, alleging that Aliyev had engaged in a "multi-billion dollar gamble with the Israelis", with whom Baku has good relations.
In December, Azerbaijan’s ministry of foreign affairs summoned Iran’s chargé d’affaires in Baku to formally protest the incident.
A day after Aliyev's remarks, Ali Akbar Ahmadian, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, arrived in Baku for what Iranian media described as "security diplomacy aimed at strengthening political-security relations with South Caucasus countries."
Ahmadian is expected to meet with President Aliyev and Azerbaijani officials before continuing to Yerevan for discussions with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
Long-standing disputes and security concerns
Aliyev's criticism extended to broader grievances, including Iran's facilitation of fuel transfers to Nagorno-Karabakh via Armenia, which Azerbaijan considers a violation of its sovereignty.
“We began to see that fuel trucks from Iran were regularly making trips to Karabakh from Armenia,” Aliyev said. After private efforts to stop the shipments failed, Azerbaijan made the issue public, exposing what Aliyev described as sloppy forgeries involving fake Armenian license plates on Iranian vehicles.
The Azerbaijani leader also criticized Iranian military exercises near their shared border, which he viewed as an attempt at intimidation. “If any military training is held on our border, we did the same on this side. We showed that we are not afraid of anyone,” he said.
Embassy attack and accountability
Aliyev revisited the January 2023 attack on Azerbaijan’s embassy in Tehran, labeling it an organized terrorist act. He pointed to a delayed police response and the immediate declaration of the assailant as mentally ill as evidence of a cover-up.
“We were officially promised...that the person would be sentenced to death,” Aliyev said. “But they deceived us again. The case was sent back to court for investigation. We know that death sentences in Iran are pronounced for less serious crimes and are immediately executed.”
Aliyev dismissed Iran’s expression of regret over the Ardebil cleric’s remarks as insufficient, demanding tangible consequences.
“We believe that the provincial mullah should be punished, at the very least dismissed from his post and made to apologize to Azerbaijan,” he said.
Aliyev’s remarks and Ahmadian’s visit to Baku highlight the complexity of Azerbaijan-Iran relations. While Ahmadian’s trip suggests Tehran’s interest in mitigating tensions, the outcomes of his discussions in Baku and Yerevan may shape the future trajectory of the strained ties.
Criticism of Iran’s massive investments and military intervention in Syria is mounting, deepening the Islamic Republic's legitimacy crisis. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the institution of Velayat-e Faqih are at the center of public discontent and protests over these policies.
The Islamic Republic's vulnerability has been highlighted by several setbacks since mid-September, including the weakening of Hezbollah and Hamas, and the degradation of Iran’s air defenses and ballistic missile production capabilities by Israeli strikes. The delayed retaliation to the Israel's attack (October 2024) has angered some hardliners.
For years, Khamenei’s supporters have seen Assad as a linchpin in their vision of a Shiite crescent stretching from Iran through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon. Assad’s Syria served as a buffer against Sunni extremism and a conduit for Iran’s influence via armed groups like Hezbollah. Losing it represents not just a geopolitical setback for Tehran, but the potential unraveling of the Axis of Resistance that Iran painstakingly cultivated over the past decade.
Disillusionment of loyalists
Many of Khamenei’s followers, who had invested ideological fervor in this alliance, are grappling with deep disappointment and a crisis of faith in their leadership.
One striking example came from Bisimchi Media, an outlet close to the intelligence unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which accused Khamenei of passivity in responding to Israel’s attacks. This was perhaps the first critical assessment of the leader’s actions. Although the criticism was swiftly retracted and the media outlet’s editorial board issued an apology, it revealed growing dissatisfaction among the states hardline supporters.
Following that unprecedented event, Tasnim News, a far more prominent IRGC outlet issued a warning against deviations and lapses of loyalty to Khamenei, emphasising the need to adjust with his pace and direction. That the warning went beyond an internal discipline and found its way into the public showed that tensions were becoming harder to contain even within the state’s closest ranks.
Prominent figures like Hadi Zarea, a member of the Quds Force in Syria, have publicly criticized Iran’s strategy, accusing IRGC leadership of exaggerating successes and creating additional challenges for the country. These critiques highlight an expanding rift among loyalists and further embolden the opposition.
Leader's rallying cries
To counter this, voices close to the supreme leader’s office have tried to inject optimism and raise spirits, echoing Khamenei’s advice to show resilience in defeat and humility in victory. Still, the despair is palpable among those who had believed the Iran-led Axis of Resistance was invincible.
Assad’s rule was presented as proof of Shiite resilience. Its collapse not only diminished Iran's territorial reach but forced its advocates to face the harsh reality that their strategic calculations may have been overly optimistic.
Moreover, the potential emergence of a semi-democratic or Sunni-led government in Syria could significantly alter the regional power balance, isolating Iran and its allies further. This scenario raises concerns about a resurgence of Sunni extremism, which could destabilize Iran internally.
Shift in domestic balance of power
Khamenei needs his loyal followers to quell unrest and prolong his rule. But many in those ranks are now grappling with disillusionment. Some are questioning Iran's foreign policy and call for introspection and reassessment. It remains to be seen if and how Khamenei would rally his base and address their growing concerns in the face of a rapidly changing regional landscape.
The fall of Assad has profound psychological implications for Iranian society. Millions of Iranians seeking structural change in Iran now perceive the state as weaker and less capable of imposing fear and repression. This perception erodes the government’s authority and helps dissidents to bolster resistance and collective identity. Activism may gain momentum as people grow more confident in challenging the state’s propaganda and misinformation.
Hope on one side, passivity and fragmentation on the other, could signal potential for more powerful uprisings and dynamic social movements that challenge the unjust, inept rulers of Iran.
While Iran is not yet a failed state, it exhibits characteristics of a failing state, including economic mismanagement, judicial misconduct, infrastructure decay, and inadequate social services. The weakening of the Axis of Resistance and continued foreign policy defeats have undermined public support for the government, eroding its ability to maintain control. As the rulers' authority deteriorates, citizens are more likely to act radically, further destabilizing the state.
Mehran is one of 176 people killed when the Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) shot down Ukraine International Airlines PS752 over the skies of Tehran with two surface-to-air missiles on January 8, 2020.
On Monday evening, Mehran’s younger brother Arman, and other families of PS752 victims gathered in Vancouver and across Canada to mark the somber anniversary.
“The pain of that moment has not lessened. It's a wound that remains open,” Arman told Iran International.
Iran initially denied responsibility, but admitted to shooting down the airliner three days later after mounting evidence made Tehran's culpability clear. Iranian authorities continue to maintain that the incident resulted from human error.
The victims' families remain unconvinced, however, with many believing the attack was aimed at the West.
176 photos and ornaments with the victims' faces adorned on a white Christmas tree at the Vancouver event commemorating the lives lost.
Most of those killed were Canadians, permanent residents of Canada and people with ties to the country who were visiting family in Iran during the Christmas break.
Seeking justice and accountability
Amid heaving sobs, one mother who lost her daughter said, "it still feels like one long day that just won’t end," inconsolable.
Arman, like many of the families, is trying to cope with grief while seeking justice not only for their families but for all Iranians facing oppression, he said.
Canada, Sweden, Ukraine and the United Kingdom have taken Iran to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) over the downing of the airliner. The four countries announced the move in 2023 shortly after the deadline passed for Iran to submit arbitration under the Montreal Convention.
“It’s long a journey but this is one step closer to justice,” Arman said.
During the candlelight vigil, Arman told Iran International that seeking accountability is a part of preventing future similar tragedies.
“When we delay justice, it gives the atrocities to the criminals to do what they do. We should urge the international community to hold them accountable to prevent such tragic events from happening again,” Arman said.
Many of the families of the victims said that since the tragedy the Iranian government has been targeting them and trying to silence them.
On Oct 30, 2023 Manzar Zarabi, an Iranian resident who lost two children, a daughter-in-law, and her five-year-old granddaughter Sofie was detained by Iran’s security forces for several days before being released.
Canadian Iranian human rights activist Hamed Esmaeilion — whose wife and daughter were killed on the flight — said his mother was banned from leaving Iran for at least six months last year in response to his activism.
While Arman hasn't been directly impacted by official intimidation on Canadian soil, he said his family in Iran has, but declined to elaborate citing their safety.
"It's very hard," Arman said. "They are alone and I'm here,"
