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This raises the question: what kind of threat does Tehran face to justify such a large-scale exercise?

If we assume the drill is not aimed at countering an internal coup against the IRGC itself, only two other scenarios remain: an external ground invasion or an internal armed group - or a popular uprising in Tehran against the government.

External invasion or internal armed group

Evidence suggests that the possibility of an external ground invasion targeting Tehran is entirely ruled out. Neither the US nor Israel has the logistical capabilities or preparedness for such an attack.

US military personnel in the Middle East number fewer than 50,000, and Israel lacks the geographical and logistical resources to carry out such an operation nearly 2,000 kilometers from its borders. Similarly, there is no known internal armed group with the capability or plans to attack Tehran.

Uprising of Tehran’s population against the government

With external or internal armed attacks ruled out, the remaining concern is the fear of a popular uprising. By announcing the involvement of 110,000 Basij forces, the IRGC spokesperson has implicitly acknowledged the seriousness of this threat.

This exercise appears to be a drill aimed at countering widespread public protests that could threaten critical government institutions.

The timing of the drill coincides with political shifts in the US, including the return of Donald Trump to the White House, and a weakening of Tehran’s regional position, which have raised concerns within the Islamic Republic’s ruling circles.

As the entity responsible for securing Tehran and sensitive government sites, the IRGC fears that any external attack, if it occurs, could coincide with internal unrest, potentially leading to the collapse of the government.

Basij forces were heavily deployed during the 2019 and 2022 protests, where they were accused of killing hundreds of citizens and arresting thousands.

Signs of government fear

Description of the threat: The IRGC spokesperson described the threat as "man-made," a clear reference to urban uprisings.

Similar drills: Just two months ago, a similar exercise took place near Tehran in Telo Road and the IRGC's Al-Mohammad Security Brigade headquarters, focusing on suppressing urban protests.

Lessons from Assad’s fall: The sudden collapse of Bashar al-Assad's government in Syria has deeply unsettled the Islamic Republic’s leaders. They fear a similar fate, particularly given the widespread public discontent and anger.

Economic crises: Concerns over the steep fall of the Iranian rial, the resulting economic repercussions, and the possibility of public uprisings if the government raises gasoline prices in the coming months are fueling these fears. An economic collapse could ignite widespread protests.

A reflection of deep-seated fear

These drills reflect the Islamic Republic’s profound fear of a popular uprising.

The publicized figure of 110,000 Basij forces is likely aimed at projecting large-scale strength and boosting morale within government ranks.

However, the reality remains that the primary threat to the Islamic Republic does not come from external borders but from the streets of Tehran and other Iranian cities.

Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani announced on X Wednesday: "Diplomacy and teamwork: Cecilia Sala is coming home!"

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni also tweeted Wednesday that Sala has been released and is on a plane returning home.

Later in the day, a video was released by Reuters showing Sala getting off the plane and hugging her partner, Daniele Raineri, as well as her parents Elisabetta Vernoni and Renato Sala. She also met the Italian prime minister at the airport.

Earlier, the Italian newspaper La Stampa reported that Sala had been moved out of solitary confinement and was sharing a cell with another person.

Cecilia Sala, a 29-year-old newspaper journalist and podcaster, was arrested in Iran last month on unspecified charges despite holding a valid press pass. She was placed in solitary confinement, sparking international concern.

A source familiar with discussions between Sala's family and the Italian government revealed to Iran International that Tehran has linked her release to Italy's handling of an Iranian detainee. Iran reportedly signaled that Sala's freedom depends on the release of Mohammad Abedini Najafabadi, a 38-year-old Iranian arrested by Italian authorities at the request of the United States. Abedini is accused of providing technology used in a drone attack that killed three US soldiers in Jordan.

The source indicated that Iran is prepared to release Sala “on humanitarian grounds” if Italy halts extradition proceedings against Abedini and frees him from Milan's La Opera prison.

"Let's enjoy Cecilia Sala's return to Italy", Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said when pressed by reporters on the possible release of the Iranian national.

"The Iranians themselves have separated the two cases," the Italian foreign minister said. "From day one we were right, we did what we could and had to do to bring an Italian citizen home."

Italian Minister of Justice Carlo Nordio on Wednesday arrived at Palazzo Chigi, the Council of Ministers, to address the issue, according to Italian media, although he himself denied the meeting was held for that reason: "This is something I am not really thinking about at the moment".

Italian media reported that during New Year’s Day calls to her family, Sala described harsh conditions in detention. She said her prescription glasses had been confiscated, her cell was barely larger than her height, and she was forced to sleep on a blanket spread on the floor.

“We dance, we sing and dance in prison, but in that same prison—which you call a hotel—we endure the longing for our loved ones. The sick care for the sick, and we must struggle for months even to get treatment [in an outside medical facility], let alone for medical furlough,” Mahnaz Tarrah, a monarchist activist wrote in a letter smuggled from Tehran’s notorious Evin Prison a few days ago.

Tarrah who has been in and out of prison several times for her political activities is currently serving a sentence of four years and four months for “propaganda against the system” and similar charges.

Tarrah and other prisoners’ statements followed a controversy sparked by the release of a video clip on social media last week that showed Iran's Nobel Peace Laureate Narges Mohammadi singing and dancing in prison.

Iran's pro-establishment media used the footage as evidence that she and some other political prisoners systematically lied about their harsh conditions in Iranian prisons and the cruelties they endured.

Political rivals charged that the video proved Mohammadi had privileges in prison contrary to her self-portrayal as a harshly persecuted dissident.

Referring to the video clip, for instance, the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC)-linked Javan newspaper claimed on Sunday that Evin Prison was as comfortable as home or a hotel.

In her letter, Tarrah also emphasized that all her fellow inmates, including those who belonged to leftist groups, constitutional monarchists, and even reformists who are often criticized by others for not supporting the goal of overthrowing the Islamic Republic, were united in their expression of resistance and defiance in prison.

“We dance together, and we cry together… Judge us if you can bear one day and night of solitary confinement or the prolonged, Islamic Republic-style interrogations [that we have endured],” Tarrah wrote.

The videos of Mohammadi’s singing and dancing were recorded by her fellow inmates using mobile phones smuggled into the prison on two separate occasions in the large, shared rooms of the Women’s Ward of Tehran’s Evin prison where around seventy female political prisoners are currently serving their sentences.

Before their trials and sentencing, political prisoners and prisoners of conscience often spend long periods in solitary confinement at other wards of Evin. These wards are administered and controlled by the Revolutionary Guards’ Intelligence Organization (SAS), the Intelligence Ministry, and the Judiciary which has its own intelligence body.

Political prisoners have provided many horrifying accounts of Evin Prison’s solitary cells, where the lights are kept on at all times and prisoners are required to wear blindfolds every time they leave their cells to use the shower or to go to interrogation rooms.

Political prisoners are also often sent to other prisons with much worse conditions, such as the Gharchak Women’s Prison in the south of Tehran, as punishment for protesting in prison or refusing to cooperate with interrogators or prison authorities.

“I must cry out from Evin Prison that the [actions of the] government will never be whitewashed with [Mohammadi’s or anyone else’s] dancing,” Mahboubeh Rezaei, another monarchist prisoner who is seen in the dance video beside Mohammadi wrote in another letter from Evin last week.

“I have been thousands of kilometers away from my family for nearly two years and been deprived of seeing my mother, the only person I have, but these deprivations will not exhaust us,” she added. “I will continue to dance, hand in hand with my sisters, with more [expression of happiness].”

Rezaei was sentenced to 26 years in prison in 2023 for “undermining national security”.

Remembering the night when they found out their fellow inmate Pakhshan Azizi had been sentenced to death, she recounted in her letter how led by Azizi, they all danced and chanted that they would not give up the quest for freedom even if they had to give their lives for it.

Azizi is one of the three female political and labor activists sentenced to death on charges of “armed rebellion” against the Islamic Republic in July by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Court.

In a third letter from Evin’s Women’s Ward in the past few days, political activist Golrokh Iraee who is serving a seven-year sentence recounted how Azizi and Varisheh Moradi, one of the other female activists sentenced to death, tried to keep up the spirits of their fellow inmates despite knowing they could be hanged any day.

“Pakhshan and Varisheh came to the general ward, after months of solitary confinement … They changed the atmosphere of the ward. They made Kurdish headdresses for others and taught us Kurdish dance … The sentences passed on them made no disruption in the inmates’ routine and their relations with other inmates,” Iraee wrote.

The hardliners' push began last week with a motion to impeach Economy Minister Abdolnasser Hemmati. According to the conservative Nameh News website, after Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf opposed the move, the hardliners expanded their efforts to include three additional ministers: Labor Minister Ahmad Maydari, Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad, and Energy Minister Abas Aliabadi.

However, moderate MP Gholamreza Tajgardoon suggested on Tuesday that Speaker Ghalibaf might still manage to persuade lawmakers to withdraw the impeachment motion.

The new government was barely a month old when Iran’s already weakened currency, the rial, began to plummet in September, losing 33% of its value. This sharp decline followed a series of consecutive regional setbacks for the Islamic Republic, including significant blows dealt by Israel to Hezbollah.

The ultraconservative daily Vatan Emrooz reported that "the motion for impeachment has been submitted to the Majles Presidium despite Ghalibaf's opposition." The newspaper noted that "the number of MPs supporting the impeachment of Hemmati exceeds those seeking to unseat the other three ministers." According to the report, while the motions to impeach the other ministers have been signed by around 10 MPs each, the call to impeach Hemmati has garnered over 70 signatories.

The new additions to the list of impeachments could be a tactic by hardliners to make sure that they can unseat at least one minister to demonstrate their power. That is important for hardliner majority as they have not been able to ratify any significant legislation since entering the parliament in May 2024.

Tajgardoon, chairman of the Majles Budget Committee, commented that "the calls for impeachment are rooted in factional motivations." He suggested that hardliners might be targeting the Oil and Labor Ministers, who only narrowly secured the parliament's vote of confidence. While recognizing that the primary target of the impeachment efforts is the Economy Minister, Tajgardoon expressed hope that the motion would not lead to Hemmati's removal from the government.

The conservative Nameh News has reported that "if successful, the impeachment would bring about a significant shift in the government and is likely to escalate tensions between the cabinet and parliament."

According to Nameh News, the hardliners have justified their impeachment efforts by stating that they are targeting Hemmati for the surging exchange rates, Paknejad for failing to supply fuel to power plants, Aliabadi for recurring power outages, and Meydari for his inability to improve workers' livelihoods or reduce unemployment in Iran.

However, none of these issues are new, as the newly formed government inherited longstanding shortages and structural problems from previous administrations, compounded by years of sanctions and ineffective governance.

The Alef website suggested that the true motive behind the impeachment push might lie in the economic interests of powerful insiders. As the rial plummeted, the government restricted access to cheap dollars previously supplied to influential importers—well-connected figures within Iran. According to Alef, "Eliminating the special lower exchange rate for importers and exporters, along with requiring exporters to repatriate their hard currency earnings to Iranian banks, has fueled the impeachment effort." The website supported its claims with statements from government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani and Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref, who defended Hemmati's foreign exchange policy reforms.

Reformist media outlets, including Rouydad24, have criticized the impeachment motions, noting that they come "during severe economic and foreign policy crises in Iran," while also citing "heightened international tensions in the region." Highlighting the factional motivations behind the push to impeach Hemmati, the website questioned, "Why was former President Raisi's economy minister never impeached, even after a 120-percent rise in exchange rates?"

While Ghaibaf has branded the impeachment as a "political show by hardliners," ultraconservative media such as Vatan Emrooz say "impeachments are a way of making the government accountable."

Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani said: “Stability in Syria is the key to stability in the region."

He called for halting foreign interventions and ensuring that Syrians decide their future without external influence.

“We are ready to work with all parties to achieve stability in Syria, ensuring that all Syrians and various groups participate in shaping the country's future,” he added.

The meeting came in the wake of the December collapse of long-time President Bashar al-Assad’s government, marking a pivotal moment for Syria and the wider region.

Since the outbreak of Syria's conflict in 2011, Iran played a central role in supporting Assad’s regime.

Viewing Syria as a strategic ally in its Axis of Resistance against Israel and the West, Iran deployed financial and military resources, including IRGC personnel and Shiite militias.

However, Iran’s extensive involvement came at a severe cost to Syria's sovereignty and economy, fostering widespread resentment among Syrians.

President Pezeshkian welcomed al-Sudani’s visit, expressing hope for accelerated development in bilateral ties.

“We hope this visit, combined with the mutual trust between the two sides, will accelerate the development of cooperation and lead to significant progress in relations between the two countries,” he said.

Pezeshkian also said, “Both countries share common concerns regarding Syria. These include ensuring stability and peace in Syria, preserving its territorial integrity, combating terrorist groups, the necessity of the Zionist regime's withdrawal from occupied territories, and respecting religious sentiments, particularly concerning Shiite holy sites.”

Iraq’s risk of Iranian influence

While Iran remains a key partner, its actions in Iraq parallel its approach in Syria, fostering Shiite militias under the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). These groups, acting as extensions of Tehran’s interests, have strained Baghdad's authority and fueled fears that Iraq could face a fate similar to Syria.

“We invite all countries to engage in dialogue among the nations of the region to ensure peace, stability, and security. Since its victory over ISIS, Iraq has consistently worked towards fostering calm in the region. Iraq operates based on understanding and dialogue between nations," al-Sudani said.

He also held talks with Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Iranian Parliament Speaker after the joint press conference in a bid to smooth out a pathway for the future without the risk of extensive Iranian involvement in Iraq.