An Iranian exiled opposition group announced on Friday it has evidence showing the Islamic Republic is secretly developing nuclear-capable warheads designed for missiles that can reach Europe.
The Islamic Republic is developing nuclear warheads for solid-fuel missiles with a range exceeding 3,000 kilometers (1,864 miles) at the Shahroud missile site in northeastern Iran, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) said in a press conference in Washington DC.
The group cited the source of the allegation as its network of members inside Iran, without elaborating.
"Additionally, a missile facility on the outskirts of Semnan, approximately 220 kilometers east of Tehran, is working to produce liquid-fuel missiles with nuclear warheads," the group announced on Friday. "This effort is being directed by the Organization for Advanced Defense Research (SPND), the entity established to consolidate Iran’s nuclear weapons activities."
Tehran denies seeking nuclear weapons and says it is engaged in peaceful scientific research. The US Central Intelligence Agency assessed last year that Iran has not yet decided to pursue a bomb but Israel says it believes Tehran seeks nuclear arms.
On August 14, 2002, the NCRI drew worldwide attention when it publicly accused Iran of clandestinely developing nuclear weapons during a similar press conference in Washington DC.
At that time, the group's spokesman Alireza Jafarzadeh said two secret nuclear facilities were being constructed in Iran at Natanz and Arak under the guise of front companies involved in the procurement of nuclear material and equipment.
Now more than 22 years later, Jafarzadeh once again appeared before media representatives to share information on how the Islamic Republic is allegedly camouflaging its nuclear weaponization efforts in Shahroud and Semnan missile sites as a satellite launching initiative.
"SPND is particularly dedicated to creating nuclear warheads for the solid-fuel Ghaem-100 missiles, which are equipped with mobile launch platforms at the Shahroud site and building liquid fuel missile Simorgh to develop nuclear warheads in Semnan," the NCRI said in a statement shared with Iran International.
Last October, Israel launched airstrikes against multiple Iranian sites including Shahroud's Space Center. Satellite images reviewed by the AP showed a central, major building at the Shahroud Space Center had been destroyed.
Iran's defense minister, however, denied damage to the Shahroud facility that builds ballistic missiles and launches rockets as part of the IRGC's space program.
In September, a report by the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) alleged that Iran has increased its activities at two nuclear sites, Sanjarian and Golab Dareh, that were key to its early nuclear weapons program two decades ago.
The report was based on satellite imagery given to the institute by Western intelligence officials, who say that in the past 18 months, Iranian experts who were involved in Iran’s alleged weapons-related projects in the early 2000s have been back at work at two secret sites.
The two sites mentioned by the ISIS were central to Iran’s alleged attempts to develop and test devices and systems that could be used to build a nuclear weapon, the report said.
Tehran has been brought before the Security Council repeatedly from 2007 to 2010 and faced several resolutions condemning the program and expanding international sanctions. However, military action against Iran's nuclear program may prevail over political and diplomatic pressure.
Over the past few weeks, Iran has been launching a series of military drills, including exercises focusing on protecting key nuclear sites such as Natanz and Fordow.
Israeli officials have reiterated the possibility of military action against Iran’s nuclear program. On Thursday, Omer Dostri, spokesman for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, told The Jerusalem Post that while Israel prefers a diplomatic solution, it doubts Iran will comply.
“War is one way to achieve our objectives. If Iran halts its nuclear ambitions without an Israeli strike, fantastic,” he said. “But we do not expect that to happen.”
Dostri also said Israel hopes to work with Trump to restore his maximum pressure policy, which had imposed severe sanctions on Iran.
While Trump has suggested he may seek a diplomatic solution, Dostri made it clear that Israel is ready to act alone if needed. “We’ll give it a chance, but the clock is ticking. If necessary, we will act – with or without American approval.”
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"It's really a battle of generations," said Dagres, a senior fellow at think tank the Washington Institute's Iran program.
"Gen Z, Gen Alpha as well, as they come of age, are really pushing back against the Islamic Republic's norms and they're really trying to take back their country. Whether they succeed is another thing."
Dagres, who specializes in Iranian youth and curates the newsletter the Iranist, said the Iranian government realizes they may have already lost Gen Z so are staking their hopes for staying in power on their successors.
“They've been actually looking at the next generation, which is Gen Alpha."
"When they came up with the song Salam Farmandeh or Salute Commander. Mostly when you see kids it's Gen Alpha kids that are part of the regime choirs and also they're being forced to sing it at schools."
Gen Z, or those born between 1997 and 2012, make up less than 7 percent of the population but were at the forefront of the 2022 Woman, Life, Freedom uprisings demanding women's rights and the end of the Islamic Republic.
Though the protests were largely stamped out, the generation remains restive.
“(Tehran is) having to think ahead because really they're struggling and I think the prime example of how they struggled here was the Woman, Life, Freedom uprising itself. It was led by Gen Z girls and women,” said Darges.
The Islamic Republic is thinking outside the box, appealing to Persian nationalistic motifs to form the minds and win the battle of the new generation.
“They've made a play about the Shahnameh or the Book of Kings. They're really trying to tap more into Iranian nationalism, which is much more palatable to the average Iranian, regardless of age these days than more Islamic motifs," said Dagres.
A recent viral video showcases a reporter asking Gen Zs to identify the clerics in photos they presented. The girls could not tell the difference between Iran’s current Supreme leader Ali Khamanei and the founder of the Islamic Republic Ruhollah Khomeini.
The kids had no problem identifying K-pop bands and Billie Eilish, however. The moment illustrated how little interest the youth have in their rulers.
Iran’s Gen Z formed a counterculture, the opposite of what the government was trying to force onto them, consuming Western music, movies all in an underground way, Dagres said. But they are not afraid to showcase their color dyed pink hair and skateboards.
The fact that women and girls are increasingly not wearing the mandatory hijab, she said, showcases the subtle ways Iranians are resisting.
In a scene which went viral online, a group of Iranian schoolgirls raised their middle fingers at a portrait of Iran's leaders in a classroom, in another sign of sharp defiance.
Authorities used extreme force to quell their rebellion after the death in morality police custody of a young Gen Z'er, Mahsa Jina Amini, in 2022.
Sham trials, confessions forced through torture and a wave of executions in 2022-23 claimed the lives of many of their number, including 23-year-old Mohsen Shakari and Majidreza Rahnavard, both promising youths hanged for their activism.
Declining marriage and birth rates
Gen Z is also the generation that is coming of age and often holding off on getting married and have children.
So much of that is a result of their connection to less traditional Western culture, but also high unemployment, concerns over climate change, inflation in Iran and a rejection of Islam and tradition, Dagres said.
Islamic Republic officials say that by the year 2101 the population in Iran will halve even as neighboring countries experience rising birth rates.
Iran’s once-youthful population is aging fast. That has stirred concerns over a lopsided economy and a potential healthcare collapse in the future.
The United Nations (UN) projects that by 2050 one-third of Iranians will be 60 or older, representing a three-fold increase from 2021.
Iran’s Ministry of Science has called for the removal of educational content deemed to discourage people from having children to combat declining birth rates.
The average Iranian household went from 6 per family to three and now a growing number of youths are choosing to live with their partners.
It is a phenomenon in Iran called white marriage, where two unwed people live together, replacing the traditional marriage proposal where families would help set up relationships.
The latest findings from the state-run National Population Research Institute suggest the number of registered marriages in Iran has dropped dramatically since 2011 with almost half a million marriages registered - a fall from the peak of 891,627 marriages in 2010.
The Rejuvenation of the Population and Protection of the Family (RPPF) law, enacted by the Iranian Parliament in 2021 under a directive from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, imposes penalties for actions deemed to discourage marriage and childbearing.
Iranians struggling with depression
Depression is rife in Iran, Dagres said, with Iranians now turning to drugs like opium and alcohol which is haram or religiously banned to ease the pain. The economic hardships and day-to-day repression lead to their depressive state.
“Some of these Gen Z'ers are so desperate for a hit of alcohol because they become so addicted that they're purchasing ethanol from a pharmacy and drinking it," said Dagres.
With the demographics of Iran dramatically changing, Gen Z appears to have largely decided to seek change, and the Islamic Republic's influence over Gen Alpha has yet to be felt.
Only time will tell what sort of future the youth of Iran will achieve.
Mohammad-Mehdi Hosseini Hamedani, the Friday prayer Imam of Karaj and the Supreme Leader’s representative in Alborz province accused supporters of negotiations of misleading the public.
"The enemy threatens Iran daily, yet some still talk about negotiations. The people know America cannot be reformed," he said during his sermon on Friday. He warned that those advocating for talks are placing Iranians in a false dilemma by pushing a narrative that all economic woes can be resolved through diplomacy.
Abdolnabi Mousavi-Fard, the Supreme Leader’s representative in Khuzestan, argued that Iran's strengthened regional position means talks are less necessary.
Any comprehensive talks with Washington, he insisted, would amount to surrendering to "illegitimate American demands."
"Before engaging in any new negotiations, the stance on America's demands must be clarified, as we know that the United States will not back down from its positions."
This comes as Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei urged officials this week to know their enemy when negotiating and to strike deals accordingly, cryptic remarks that some commentators interpreted as a tacit endorsement of US talks.
The remarks from hardline clerics come as the government signals openness to diplomatic engagement with the United States over Iran’s nuclear program.
In an interview with Sky News, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that while Tehran is open to hearing out President Trump, any new deal will be far more challenging to achieve than in 2018 when the original nuclear agreement was signed.
"The situation is different and much more difficult than the previous time," Araghchi said. "Lots of things should be done by the other side to buy our confidence … We haven't heard anything but the 'nice' word, and this is obviously not enough."
This follows President Trump’s earlier remark that it would be "nice" if the nuclear crisis could be resolved without escalation or the need for Israel to launch military strikes against Iran.
While Tehran signals a cautious willingness for dialogue, opposition from conservative clerics underscores internal divisions within the Iranian leadership, with hardliners urging defiance while the government assesses its next move.