US talks impossible under Trump's maximum pressure policy, Iran says

Taghi Azad Armaki told Etemad, a pro-reform newspaper supporting President Masoud Pezeshkian, that without lifting US sanctions a wave of protests over socio-economic issues is likely.

He criticized the government for converting social and economic problems into security issues by criminalizing actions such as protests and opposition to social media censorship, rather than addressing the underlying problems.

Armaki emphasized that soaring prices, especially in housing and healthcare, along with the rapid depreciation of the Iranian currency and widespread poverty, are placing immense pressure on Iranians. He noted that while government officials occasionally acknowledge these issues, they have yet to propose any meaningful solutions.

The sociologist warned, “If this situation continues, protests are likely to erupt in the near future.” He criticized the government for downplaying serious issues in energy, housing, poverty, and social delinquency.

He urged the government to acknowledge its limitations and focus its resources on meeting the nation’s basic needs, such as ensuring the proper distribution of essentials like bread, water and energy.

Former Interior Minister Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli echoed these concerns, telling the press that “the extent of accumulated demands and dissent in Iran is a serious cause for concern.” He noted that the current situation is even more troubling than in 2019, when hundreds of thousands protested against rising fuel prices.

During that sudden wave of unrest in over 100 cities, the government swiftly responded with military and vigilante forces, resulting in the deaths of 1,500 protesters, according to a Reuters estimate.

Meanwhile, the IRGC-linked newspaper Javan criticized hardliners in the parliament (Majles), warning that “while protests more intense than those of 2019 loom on the horizon, opponents of President Pezeshkian and even some who backed him in the election are wasting time and energy trying to unseat him and his ministers.”

Javan warned that this could trigger a series of deep-rooted political crises in the upcoming Iranian year, which begins in about four weeks. The newspaper suggested that the situation could worsen if combined with “foreign operations,” likely referring to potential Israeli attacks on Iran’s nuclear sites.

In a similar vein, conservative commentator Mohammad Mohajeri criticized hardline lawmakers for pushing to impeach Economy Minister Abdolnaser Hemmati, accusing him of “failing to improve the country’s economic situation.”

Mohajeri criticized the hardline lawmakers, saying, “The MPs think that dismissing the minister will improve the economic situation, but their approach is like an ugly man trying to calm a crying baby by making faces—his appearance only made the baby cry even harder.” He added, “You are the problem. It’s your actions that have created these insurmountable challenges.”

Several reports in Iranian media on Monday highlighted the severity of Iran’s economic crisis and the financial struggles facing its citizens. The conservative Nameh News website noted, “The government's inefficiency is worsening the economic crisis, compounded by significant shortcomings in sectors such as energy, housing, and healthcare.”

Economic expert and a well-known businessman, Majid Reza Hariri, told Nameh News that when he questioned some MPs about their push to impeach the economy minister, they admitted, “The situation might get worse, but we need to show our voters that we are just as dissatisfied with the current state of affairs.”

Commenting on the Pezeshkian administration's weaknesses, Hariri remarked, “I believe we effectively have no government, as no one is willing to take responsibility for the economic problems.”

“The model for the country's salvation is to turn to the people. If we want to solve the economy, the solution is to turn to the private sector and entrust work to the people," Major General Mohammad Bagheri said.

Iran's armed forces, the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) in particular, have benefited from previous waves of privatisation, taking over fully or in part the companies and businesses that the government puts up for sale.

Bagheri's call comes amid reports that the Iranian Armed Forces, including the IRGC, will receive a substantial 51% (approximately €12 billion) of the government's €24 billion oil and gas export revenues in the upcoming budget.

The budget bill for the next Iranian year (starting March 21) details that while 37.5% of oil and gas revenue goes to the government, over half of that portion funds the military.

Last year, a Reuters report indicated that the IRGC already controls up to half of Iran's oil exports, funding military operations and allies.

Recent Central Bank statistics also show a significant decline in private sector involvement in foreign trade, replaced by government entities that receive the majority of foreign currency.

Customs data further shows that government-controlled petrochemical, steel, oil, and gas products dominate exports.

The country’s new budget allows the Oil Ministry to contract with third parties for oil and gas field operations to settle debts, raising fears that these contracts will fall into the hands of the so-called "Khosoulati" entities—quasi-state organizations controlled by insiders of the ruling system, rather than genuine private sector businesses.

HamMihan newspaper warned last year that such a policy risks transferring national resources to entities lacking the necessary capacity and resources, further entrenching government-linked organizations in the economy.

The closures, driven by severe gas shortages and electricity cuts, have left Iranians accustomed to working weeks of just two or three days.

With snow, rain, and plunging temperatures further straining the country’s already fragile energy infrastructure, provincial officials announced the shutdowns late Sunday, impacting regions including Tehran, Mazandaran, Gilan, Golestan, Isfahan, Markazi, Kerman, Hamedan, etc.

In Tehran, schools, courts, and government offices suspended operations entirely, with authorities mandating that all heating systems be turned off to conserve fuel.

“This isn’t about bad weather,” said Nima, a wholesaler of car spare parts in the capital. “The government announces these closures to cover up its energy failures. They know if they don’t shut things down, people will protest over the lack of heating and electricity,” he told Iran International.

A large number of Iranians said on social media that in some provinces, schools were declared closed without arrangements for online classes. However, many said that virtual education is unreliable anyway, as power outages also disrupt internet access.

The country’s aging telecommunications infrastructure lacks backup battery systems, further limiting connectivity.

The frequent shutdowns have hit businesses hard, particularly as Iran nears Nowruz, the Persian New Year, when many retailers rely on a seasonal surge in consumer spending. Hamid, 38, who runs a clothing boutique in Tehran’s Gisha neighborhood, said sales have plummeted.

“We wait 11 months for this last stretch before Nowruz to make a profit, but every week, we lose two or three working days,” he told Iran International. “This morning, I sold just two pairs of pants and a shirt, which were already discounted. Meanwhile, my bounced checks are piling up.”

Iran’s work week has long been out of sync with the global economy, with weekends falling on Thursday and Friday instead of Saturday and Sunday. Nima said the latest wave of shutdowns has made the situation even worse.

“Iranian businesses already struggle because we only overlap with the international market for three days a week,” he said. “Now, with these extra closures, we’re essentially shut down half the month. How can there be an economy in a country that’s closed for business?”

Compounding the crisis, the Iranian rial continues to weaken against the US dollar amid economic pressures from US sanctions. The falling currency has further eroded purchasing power, leaving many consumers unable to afford even discounted goods.

Public sector closures have become a frequent occurrence in Iran, with schools and offices repeatedly shut in recent months due to pollution, dust storms, cold weather, and fuel shortages.

While officials cite weather conditions for the latest round of shutdowns, weather tracking services have not predicted subzero temperatures or heavy snowfall for many of the affected provinces.

For business owners like Hamid and Nima, the pattern is clear. “It’s not about the cold,” Nima said. “It’s about the country running on empty.”

“Iran is in a revolutionary, or at the very least, a pre-revolutionary fervor," the son of Iran's last monarch said.

"It’s escalating every day. All the chants you hear on the streets, all the protests, all the demonstrations that specifically call for an end to this regime, death to the dictator, death to the Islamic Republic.”

"There is a critical window of opportunity to change history. It may only be open for a few months,” he added, calling on Western governments to support the momentum seen in Iran as the government faces its lowest legitimacy since the founding of the Islamic Republic in 1979.

Pahlavi rejected military intervention, arguing that Western powers should instead apply pressure on the Iranian government and the people's movement.

“What we’ve been saying to the Americans, the Europeans, is let’s not jump directly from failed diplomacy to contemplating conflict and war,” he said. “There’s a third option and [it is] the best option – the Iranian people.”

Pahlavi also emphasized the importance of defections from within the Iranian state, including military and security personnel, to ensure a transition with minimal bloodshed.

“We don’t want to encourage a scenario that leads to anarchy, rather a controlled implosion,” he said. “But it cannot happen unless you have the tacit collaboration of military and paramilitary forces.”

He said justice will be brought to the people involved in Iran's mass crackdowns which have seen record numbers of executions since 2022 and hundreds killed in protests sparked by the death in custody of Mahsa Amin.

“Those who have their hands soiled with the blood of the people will have to face justice one day. But I’m not talking about kangaroo trials,” he said.

Pahlavi also said he supports US President Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” policy on Iran but believes it should be paired with “maximum support” for opposition movements.

“Is there a historic opportunity for change to happen? We believe yes,” he said. “But I think that the failure of Western policymakers to catch up to where Iran is now could impede our success in finding a resolution to the ultimate problem.”

“The Iranian nation is peace-seeking and has no enmity with any country,” Esmail Khatib said during a ceremony Saturday marking the 40th anniversary of the Intelligence Ministry’s establishment.

“However, in the face of adventurism, malicious actions, and unwarranted interference—particularly from the US and the Zionist regime—we will adhere to the strategy of threat for threat and aggression for aggression.”

While US President Donald Trump has said he prefers diplomatic channels to deal with Iran, he has not ruled out military action against its nuclear facilities, having vowed that Iran must not obtain nuclear weapons.

President Masoud Pezeshkian, Judiciary Chief Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei, and other security and military officials attended the ceremony.

Khatib was sanctioned by the US Treasury Department for his role in cyber operations and human rights abuses, designating both him and the ministry in 2022 saying they were involved in cyber activities against the US and its allies.

Iran’s intelligence services, particularly the Revolutionary Guard’s intelligence arm, have played a central role in suppressing dissent in recent years, detaining protesters and opposition figures in its own detention facilities.