Tehran and Washington are heading into high-stakes talks in Oman this weekend that could determine the path ahead: diplomacy or war. The outcome may shape not only regional stability, but the survival of the Islamic Republic, which has ruled Iran for more than four decades.
On this episode of Eye for Iran, a powerhouse panel of experts unpacks what’s really at stake and what each side hopes to gain.
The Islamic Republic is fundamentally transactional—and deeply motivated to strike a deal in order to survive, says Arash Azizi, an Iran analyst and author of What Iranians Want.
“The result of a failure of the talks is no longer, oh, there will be a lot more sanctions, you have to deal with it economically but an escalation that could be really devastating to Iran as a nation,” said Azizi.
Pressure is mounting. Former President Donald Trump has not only issued verbal warnings but deployed strategic bombers to the Indian Ocean. The US military has also moved a Patriot missile defense battalion from the Indo-Pacific to the Middle East—a major logistical feat involving at least 73 C-17 cargo flights, according to Axios.
On Wednesday, Trump said that Israel could lead a potential strike on Iran should the nuclear talks collapse. The announcement came just two days after he blindsided Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House by revealing direct negotiations with Tehran.
“If it requires military, we’re going to have military,” Trump said during a press briefing in the Oval Office.
Meanwhile, Iran continues inching closer to nuclear weapons capability. Though Tehran insists its program is peaceful, the UN nuclear watchdog has warned that Iran now possesses enough uranium enriched to near-weapons-grade levels to make several nuclear bombs.
“I think they are very motivated, as real estate agents say, to get a deal,” added Azizi.
Behnam Ben Taleblu, Senior Director of the FDD’s Iran program, argues that while the Iranian establishment is ideological, it can still be pressured. “If the president wants to give diplomacy a chance, the best way to do that is to make sure that Iran doesn't have credible exit options—meaning Iran's option away from the table should not be better for the regime than the option to come to the table.”
Jay Solomon of The Free Press warns that Iran may use talks to buy time. “What's still kind of confusing is the person who's negotiating it, Steve Witkoff, and his positions, at least publicly, of what a deal would look like is a lot different than what Mike Waltz the national security advisor—he's talked about essentially dismantling the whole program.”
Solomon also pointed to rifts within the Trump camp.
“His (Witkoff) diplomacy in recent weeks was on Tucker Carlson, and Carlson himself has almost daily been lobbying very publicly against any military strikes on Iran … you can see these tensions inside the Trump administration between kind of these hawkish, almost traditional conservative Republicans like Waltz. But then you have this wing of the MAGA movement.”
Gabriel Noronha, former Special Advisor for the Iran Action Group at the State Department, sees these talks as a test—not a breakthrough.
"This is really President Trump saying that there's one last way out for Iran to avoid the disastrous fate which it has put itself into… an easy way out of this predicament or there's the hard way out, the hard way out being military strikes.”
An official familiar with the preparations was cited by Reuters as saying that the two delegations will meet in the same room.
It’s a pivotal moment—one that could reset the trajectory of US-Iran relations. Whether diplomacy prevails or war looms will likely be decided behind closed doors in Oman.
The planned amputation of three men’s fingers in Iran amounts to torture and must be halted immediately, the UN Special Rapporteur on Human Rights in Iran told Iran International in an interview.
"Today, I’m very concerned about the possibility of amputation of fingers that may be implemented to three men who have been convicted of theft,” said Mai Sato.
"Corporal punishment, including amputation, is absolutely prohibited under international law. And if executed, will amount to torture or ill-treatment," she said.
Earlier, rights group Amnesty International said the three men — Hadi Rostami, Mehdi Sharfian, and Mehdi Shahivand — held in Urumieh Central Prison in northwestern Iran, were informed by prosecution authorities last month that their sentences would be implemented as early as 11 April.
Amnesty said the same prison carried out amputations on two brothers last October using a guillotine device, raising alarm that authorities are prepared to enforce further amputation sentences.
Despite violating Article 7 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR), to which Iran is a party, Amnesty said the court had sentenced the three men to “have four fingers on their right hands completely cut off so only the palm of their hands and thumbs are left”.
Sato urged the Iranian authorities to halt the amputation sentence on the men.
Amnesty said the three men have consistently maintained their innocence and said that their confessions were forced under torture, including beatings, flogging and suspension by their limbs.
At least 223 amputations have been carried out by Iranian authorities out of 384 known sentences since 1979, according to the US-based rights group the Abdorrahman Boroumand Center.
Iranian authorities had removed several organs from dual national Jamshid Sharmahd before transferring his body to Berlin after his sudden death in an Iranian prison while awaiting execution, the family's lawyers said Friday.
The lawyers said autopsy results revealed that several organs, including his tongue, larynx, thyroid, and heart had been removed before his body was transferred to Germany, hindering a full investigation into the cause of his death.
The possibility that Sharmahd may have been poisoned cannot be dismissed, according to lawyer Patrick Kroker.
His body was in poor condition Kroker said, adding that the corpse had only two teeth remaining.
Sharmahd was abducted by Iranian agents during a visit to the United Arab Emirates in 2020 and forcibly taken to Iran. According to Sharmahd family's lawyers, he was taken to Iran via Oman.
In February 2023, the Iranian judiciary sentenced him to death on charges of endangering national security.
He was convicted of heading a pro-monarchist group called Tondar accused of a deadly 2008 bombing at a religious center in Shiraz, killing 14 and injuring 215 more. The accusation, which Sharmahd repeatedly denied, was never substantiated by any public evidence.
'Mutilation'
At the memorial ceremony on Friday co-organized by the Berlin-based rights group Hawar Help, Sharmahd's daughter, Ghazaleh, told Iran International that the removal of his organs served two purposes: to traumatize the family and conceal evidence of his fate.
"They took out his tongue, the one with which he spoke about what they didn't want him to and they removed his heart, the one that beat for Iran," Ghazaleh said.
She added that in death by hanging, examiners might look for external evidence such as marks from a tight noose. However, after a few months these marks fade and internal organs must be investigated.
“The organs they removed are the very things that could show he was executed,” she said.
On October 28 last year, Iran's judiciary website Mizan announced that Sharmahd was executed. However, a week later on Nov 5, the judiciary spokesperson Asghar Jahangir said that Sharmahd died of a stroke before his scheduled execution.
The conflicting accounts of the Iranian authorities at the time raised questions about the truth behind his death.
Nearly four months after his demise was announced by Iranian authorities, German authorities informed Ghazaleh that her father’s body would be transferred to Berlin.
"We had to try really hard to bring him here, and German authorities didn’t want to help," Ghazaleh told Iran International.
Activist Mina Khani said that rights group Hawar Help, led by founder Düzen Tekkal and co-initiator of the group’s German political sponsorship program for Iranians detained in Iran, Mariam Claren, were deeply involved in pushing the German government to pressure Iran to repatriate Sharmahd's body.
“The most shocking part was the Islamic Republic’s mutilation of Jamshid Sharmahd's body, where parts of his body including his tongue, larynx, thyroid, and heart were removed before being sent,” Khani added.
In a statement following the ceremony, Julia Duchrow, Secretary General of Amnesty International said: "The shocking finding of the autopsy is that the cause of Jamshid Sharmahd's death cannot be determined due to the condition of the body."
Duchrow called on the German Federal Prosecutor's Office to immediately launch criminal investigations against Iranian officials suspected of being responsible for Sharmahd's death.
While most semi-official media outlets in Iran and many political figures have expressed support for what they describe as indirect talks with the United States, hardline clerics loyal to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei are voicing sharp opposition.
Media outlets in Tehran, including those close to his office, have been highlighting that without Khamenei’s support there would be no talks with the Trump administration. However, Friday prayer imams who work under his control, slammed negotiations in their sermons, saying that it is beneath Iran to enter diplomatic bargaining with Washington.
“Negotiating with America is against our national pride,” said Ahmad Alamolhoda, the firebrand imam of Mashhad, during his sermon on Friday, according to the semi-official Mehr news agency. “No Iranian with self-respect would accept to approach the US empty-handed.”
He added that US demands—ranging from dismantling Iran’s missile program to limiting its regional influence—amounted to surrender. “They want us to give up everything: our weapons, our science, even our pride. No honorable Iranian would accept that.”
Calling on Iran’s negotiators to resist pressure, Alamolhoda warned: “Direct talks are worse than indirect ones. We’ve been here before—and it always ends badly.”
Firebrand ayatollah, Alamolhoda during a sermon - File Photo
Khamenei banned negotiations with Washington one day after President Donald Trump renewed his maximum pressure on Tehran in early February. However, the mood gradually changed, as Trump repeatedly issued military threats and a large US naval force gathered in the region.
President Masoud Pezeshkian confirmed on Wednesday that Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi will conduct upcoming talks with US representatives in Oman under Khamenei's guidance.
The conservative daily Khorasan, which is closely affiliated with parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, echoed this stance. The paper noted that despite previously opposing direct engagement, Khamenei has now approved the indirect negotiations and is expected to closely oversee their progress.
However, Khamenei has allowed prominent Friday Imams, who wield power in their cities and provinces, to speak out against the negotiations. The Supreme Leader adopted a similar stance during the Obama administration when the JCPOA nuclear deal was being negotiated. He reluctantly admitted that he allowed the talks but often voiced doubt if the outcome would be beneficial.
Khamenei with Tehran Imam, Sedighi - File photo
“Direct talks are beneath us,” said Tehran’s interim Friday prayer Imam Kazem Sedighi during his weekly sermon, according to the semi-official Tasnim news agency. “How can we trust those who tore up the [JCPOA] deal?”
Sedighi said any engagement with Washington must be approached with caution, citing Khamenei’s guidance that negotiations should only take place when there is certainty the other side will honor its commitments.
“There is no room left for negotiation where they try to take the nuclear industry from us,” he said.
Other Friday imams argued that lifting sanctions is not a good enough reason for negotiating with Trump. They reverted to Khamenei’s calls of strengthening the Islamic Republic from within – an ideology that has failed to create a stable economy. Iran’s currency has tumbled 22-fold since 2018 and incomes have nosedived, pushing close to half the population into poverty. Workers' salaries are now barely above $100 per month.
An Iranian hardline lawmaker also said on Friday that the upcoming talks must center on proving Iran is not pursuing nuclear weapons, warning that any effort to dismantle the country’s nuclear program would make talks unacceptable.
“In the talks with the US, we must prove that Iran is not pursuing the construction of a nuclear weapon,” Mousa Ghazanfariabadi said, according to the Mehr news agency.
“But if the other side tries to shut down Iran’s nuclear program or raise unrelated issues, the negotiation is invalid and unacceptable,” he added.
In Iran, anticipation is mounting as the countdown begins for the upcoming talks between Iranian and US delegations over the future of the country’s nuclear program and the possible lifting of crippling sanctions.
The mere presence of both teams in the same place—even if not in the same room—has sparked fresh hopes among a public weary of years of inconclusive diplomacy. Many Iranians have grown frustrated with what has often felt like a “negotiations for negotiations” cycle, with little to show in terms of real progress.
This time, however, the mood feels different. With Donald Trump pushing for concrete results and Iranian officials hinting that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei may finally be open to genuine engagement, optimism is spreading across Iranian cities. Many are hoping not only for economic relief but also for a de-escalation of tensions and an end to the ever-present threat of war.
The economic daily Tejarat asserted on Thursday that “Iran and America will come to the negotiating table with genuine intent—and perhaps even political honesty.” The paper noted that public optimism is high about the possibility of an agreement between Tehran and Washington. According to Tejarat, Trump is seeking a swift deal to halt Iran’s nuclear advances, while Iran is acutely aware that time is limited—particularly with the trigger mechanism of the 2015 nuclear agreement likely to be activated by October 18.
Over the past week, many Iranians appear to have moved past the debate over direct versus indirect negotiations, the paper said. Even Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi now seems to agree that the substance of the talks matters more than their format. At this stage, confidence-building appears to be the top priority for both sides.
Still, Tejarat cautioned that “despite Trump’s efforts to restrain Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the shadow—and possibly the quiet influence—of Israel on the Oman negotiations cannot be ignored.”
In a hopeful assessment, Iranian academic Alireza Soltani, an international relations and foreign policy analyst, told Khabar Online that “the very fact that the talks are set to begin is already the first achievement in Iran-US diplomacy.” Soltani expressed optimism about the potential success of the negotiations in Oman.
He suggested that the two sides are likely to reach a quick agreement on at least two initial points: continuing the negotiations and moving toward direct talks. From there, progress could follow on Iran’s nuclear program and, more broadly, on reducing tensions in the region.
Meanwhile, in interviews with the Fararu website, foreign policy analysts Abdolreza Faraji Rad and Ali Ghanbari noted that the talks are unlikely to produce results quickly, estimating that it could take at least six months to reach any agreement. Ghanbari also cautioned that the Iranian market’s positive response to news of the talks may be short-lived. “However,” he added, “if the negotiations proceed smoothly, we could see an economic breakthrough.”
Meanwhile, in an interview with the pro-reform daily Arman Melli, reformist figure and former Tehran City Councillor Zahra Nejad Bahram stressed that “Iranian society seeks peace.” She suggested that, to counter hardline opposition to the talks, the government should allow a public rally in support of negotiations—demonstrating the popular backing such efforts enjoy.
“Hardliners who entered parliament with the support of only three percent of eligible voters lack legitimacy,” she said. Still, Nejad Bahram emphasized that Iran will proceed with the talks based on national interests. “While there’s no guarantee of success, opposing negotiations amounts to betrayal of the country,” she added.
As preparations for the talks continue, hardline media close to the core of power appear eager to shift responsibility to the Pezeshkian administration—seemingly to shield Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei from blame should the negotiations fail. In contrast, pro-Pezeshkian outlets such as Etemad argue at length that the president is simply carrying out the Supreme Leader’s directives, with little independent authority of his own.
This gap in messaging reflects the deeper political struggle over who owns the process—and who will answer for its outcome.
Iran plans to amputate the fingers of three men convicted of theft on Friday just days after executing five political prisoners, prompting alarm from UN human rights experts and international rights groups.
"Three men in Iran face imminent finger amputations that may be carried out as early as tomorrow (11 April 2025). The prohibition of torture and ill-treatment is absolute and allows no exceptions," Mai Sato, Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Islamic Republic of Iran, said in a post on X.
UN experts, which include Sato, expressed deep concern over the planned amputations, saying it violates international law and called for the immediate halt of such punishments.
In their statement, the UN experts said the three men were convicted of theft in 2019 and sentenced to amputation, with the Supreme Court upholding the verdict in 2020 despite allegations of torture.
Iran executes five political prisoners
The planned amputations come just days after Iran executed five political prisoners on Tuesday in Mashhad Central Prison, in northeastern Iran.
Left to right- Farhad Shakeri, Abdolhakim Azim Gorgij and Abdolrahman Gorgij.
The five prisoners, identified as Farhad Shakeri, Abdolhakim Azim Gorgij, Abdolrahman Gorgij, Taj Mohammad Khormali, and Malek Ali Fadayi Nasab, were convicted of “armed rebellion” for their affiliation with banned political groups, according to Norway-based rights group Iran Human Rights (IHR).
In a statement on Wednesday, IHR said the five men were executed without the opportunity for a final visit with their families. Their executions came after years of detention, including long periods in solitary confinement and allegations of torture during their trials.
“These prisoners were subjected to torture and sentenced to death following an unfair trial in the Revolutionary Court,” said Mahmood Amiry-Moghaddam, Director of Iran Human Rights (IHR). "The international community and the people of Iran must respond seriously to these executions."
The executions of the five men came on the same day as Amnesty International warned that the vast majority of the executions in Iran last year were linked to political repression.
The rights group reported that Iran accounted for 64% of all known global executions in 2024, with at least 972 people executed, in what Amnesty said is the government's ongoing campaign of mass suppression of dissent.