Iran has enough enriched uranium to produce several nuclear warheads and could do so within months, International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi said Tuesday at the Council on Foreign Relations.
“Iran is not far from having a nuclear problem. They don’t have it, we know it,” Grossi said. “But the material for it already, it’s already there. To make a few warheads.”
He added that Iran had previously “conducted research and even testing some of the necessary elements for (a) nuclear device,” and that the IAEA lacks “full confidence that they have disappeared completely.”
While stressing the technical distinction between capability and possession, Grossi warned that the timeline is narrowing: “It would be a matter of months, not years."
The IAEA continues inspections in Iran, but Grossi described the current level of access as falling short. “I would say insufficient ... degree of visibility as we see it necessary.”
Talks between the US and Iran are ongoing, with Grossi calling the moment “fraught with opportunity, but of course pretty sensitive, if not dangerous.”
He referred to the unprecedented nature of the engagement, saying, “We see Iran and the United States talking directly in a way that had never happened before.”
Grossi said the IAEA lacks adequate visibility and called the current US-Iran talks “a moment of huge, huge, huge responsibility for everybody.”
Key technical issues, including uranium enrichment and potential weaponization, are central to the discussions. “It is obvious ... that the enrichment chapter is a very big chapter...and the weaponization chapter is another very important part of that conversation,” said the IAEA chief.
Grossi said China had expressed clear opposition to a nuclear-armed Iran during his recent meetings in Beijing, which he called, "a very firm commitment ... that we should not have an Iran armed with nuclear weapons.”
He concluded that verifying any future agreement would remain the IAEA’s domain. “We are the ones that are able—the only ones that are able—to say Iran has so much of this, so much of that.”
Grossi visited Tehran last week and held talks with senior Iranian officials ahead of the second round of US-Iran diplomacy in Rome.
US President Donald Trump has threatened to bomb Iran if the negotiations fail.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is traveling to Beijing on Tuesday with Ali Khamenei’s letter to Xi Jinping, a diplomatic source familiar with the message told Iran International.
The move comes days before Araghchi is expected to hold a third round of talks with US envoy Steve Witkoff.
“In his message to Xi, the Supreme Leader emphasized that the Islamic Republic remains fully committed to the 25-year cooperation agreement with China,” the source added.
“He added that Iran’s ‘Look to the East’ policy is a foundational pillar of its foreign relations and will not be altered by any rapprochement with Washington.”
The outreach comes as Iran’s role in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has remained marginal.
Despite close political ties and a comprehensive strategic agreement signed, Chinese investments in Iran have lagged far behind expectations. Only two major deals were struck between 2013 and 2023, with one later annulled following the US exit from a 2015 nuclear deal.
Iran and the United States this month engaged in two rounds of nuclear negotiations, first in Muscat and then in Rome, mediated by Oman. The initial talks in Muscat were described as "positive and constructive," with both sides agreeing to continue discussions the following week.
A third round of talks is slated for Saturday, as the two sides approach a 60-day deadline set by the US president for achieving a deal on Tehran's disputed nuclear program.
In late March, Trump threatened to bomb Iran and impose secondary sanctions if no nuclear deal is reached with Tehran.
Post-2015 opening to West 'won't be repeated’
According to the same diplomatic source, Khamenei’s message also referenced Iran’s cautious opening up to diplomacy and economic cooperation with the West following a 2015 nuclear agreement, telling Xi that such a change in orientation would not be repeated.
“The message was meant to reassure China that any agreement with the US is solely intended to reduce tensions,” the source said.
In his weekly press briefing on Monday, Iran's Foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said Tehran continues to coordinate with allies, adding, “It is natural that we will brief China on the latest in the Iran-US talks.”
Araghchi’s trip to Beijing mirrors a recent effort in which Iran’s foreign minister delivered a similar message from Khamenei to Russian President Vladimir Putin ahead of earlier talks in Italy.
Though China remains Iran’s top trading partner, Chinese firms have signed far more lucrative contracts with Saudi Arabia and the UAE in recent years.
Since taking office, the Trump administration has escalated pressure on Iran by targeting Chinese teapot refineries—independent processors of Iranian crude that have served as a vital economic conduit for Tehran under sanctions.
“Russia’s role as a permanent Security Council member is important, and the nuclear cooperation between Iran and Russia naturally gives it a key part to play,” government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani said on Monday, according to Iranian media.
The remarks come as speculation grows over Russia’s potential role in Iran-US talks.
According to a Guardian report published Sunday, Russia could play a central role in any future nuclear deal, with Moscow being considered not only as a potential destination for Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, but also as a possible arbiter in the event of breaches to the agreement.
The report said that one option under discussion would allow Russia to "return the handed-over stockpile of highly enriched uranium to Tehran" if the US were to violate the deal, ensuring Iran is not penalized for American non-compliance.
Mohajerani said Iran is “hopeful the good management we’re seeing from that side [the US] will help move things in a positive direction,” but emphasized that Tehran will not accept prolonged negotiations.
“We do not welcome exhausting, lengthy negotiations. A good agreement that protects our national interests is possible in the short term," she added.
Reiterating the importance of sanctions relief, she said, “Lifting sanctions should have a real impact on people’s lives".
Only Sunday, she told the state news agency, “In the continuation of the negotiation path, we will welcome any practical initiative aimed at lifting sanctions".
Not only is Iran under sanctions for its nuclear program, but since the 2022 uprising, has been sanctioned for human rights abuses in addition to sanctions for its support of Russia's war on Ukraine.
Saudi visit 'beyond ordinary,' signals deeper ties
Highlighting the country's strengthening ties with its Arab neighbors, Mohajerani described the recent visit of Saudi Arabia’s defense minister to Tehran as a significant and strategic development.
“This visit went beyond a routine trip,” she said. “It carried a message from the Saudi King and included important talks. It reflects Saudi Arabia’s resolve to deepen cooperation with Iran.”
The two nations had cut diplomatic ties between 2016 and 2023 after an attack on the Saudi embassy in Tehran, but today, Iran views Saudi Arabia as a critical regional partner, she said.
Strengthening ties with neighbors—especially Muslim countries—is a priority under the Pezeshkian administration's foreign policy.
It has also seen growing ties with the United Arab Emirates, which also cut diplomatic relations in the wake of the Saudi embassy incident, until reinstating them in 2022.