Iran, Israel race to court Azerbaijan as rivalry in Caucasus heats up

The third round of talks took place in Muscat on Saturday, marking the first time that technical experts engaged directly.

Although the initiation of technical discussions is a positive development, addressing detailed issues exposed deep divisions, slowing the momentum. Statements by Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi and Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi were notably cautious, signaling limited optimism.

Araghchi emphasized the substantial gap between the two sides' demands, noting that goodwill alone will not bridge it. Talks are scheduled to continue next week at both expert and chief negotiator levels.

Potential breakthrough?

Despite the uncertainties, a deal could be easier to forge compared to the one in 2015, for several reasons:

1. Regional dynamics have shifted, with Arab states now largely supporting an agreement.
2. Iran’s frozen assets are significantly lower—$10–20 billion today, compared to $80–150 billion in 2015.
3. Iran’s regional influence through proxy groups has weakened.
4. Domestic unrest has eroded the IRI’s internal position, increasing its incentive to negotiate.
5. The reduced intensity of US-Russia rivalry removes a complicating factor.
6. The US-China trade war may hamper Washington’s ability to apply maximum pressure.

Both Washington and Tehran prefer a diplomatic outcome over military confrontation. However, historical, political, and ideological differences complicate the path forward.

Core obstacles

First, the legacy of mistrust remains deep. Decades of conflict, sanctions, and failed diplomacy have hardened suspicions on both sides.

President Trump's withdrawal from the 2015 deal heightened Iranian concerns about American reliability. Meanwhile, US officials remain wary of Iran’s actions. Any agreement would require both sides to genuinely believe that commitments will be honored—an especially tall order given the political volatility in both countries.

Second, Tehran is unwilling to fully dismantle its nuclear infrastructure, resisting a repeat of Libya’s disarmament model. It may agree to reduce uranium enrichment and degrade highly enriched stockpiles but will preserve advanced centrifuge capabilities.

Iran’s regional influence, although waned, still concerns Washington, particularly with regard to Israel. Many in Benjamin Netanyahu's cabinet believe the current window offers a rare chance to cripple Iran’s nuclear capabilities and may push for covert or limited military operations to derail negotiations.

European powers are another factor. Britain, Germany, and France, alarmed by Iran’s growing military cooperation with Russia, are considering reimposing UN sanctions if no progress is made. Though not directly involved in current talks, their support will be critical to any final agreement.

Sanctions are another obstacle. While economic pressure has hurt Iran deeply, many sanctions, particularly those linked to terrorism, were codified by Congress and cannot be lifted by the administration alone. A complex framework for phased sanctions relief will be necessary.

Interim agreement?

In sum, while opportunities for a breakthrough exist, formidable challenges remain. Mistrust, nuclear safeguards, regional tensions, domestic politics, and sanctions enforcement all complicate diplomacy.

An interim agreement—laying the groundwork for a broader, binding deal—appears the most realistic short-term path.

Revived US-Iran nuclear negotiations risk empowering Iran and accelerating a strategic shift away from Washington’s traditional influence in the Middle East, according to an analysis by Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs.

Arab states, particularly in the Persian Gulf, have adopted a cautious stance toward the talks, not out of trust in Tehran but out of skepticism toward US reliability, political analyst Dalia Ziada wrote. "The muted Arab response is a hedging strategy."

Meanwhile, regional powers are advancing their own nuclear programs. Egypt is building a Russian-backed civilian nuclear plant at El Alamein and has recently conducted its first-ever joint military exercise with China, the article pointed out.

Saudi Arabia’s atomic energy project is progressing, with Riyadh exploring cooperation with China and Russia if the US does not allow domestic enrichment.

"Arab states are learning to live with ambiguity," Ziada wrote, adding that many are leveraging new relationships with Beijing and Moscow to balance Washington’s influence.

US President Donald Trump's optimistic pronouncements regarding negotiations with Iran are primarily an effort to maintain Tehran's engagement in the talks, according to Shahram Kholdi, a professor of international relations.

Speaking to Iran International, Kholdi characterized Trump's optimism as a strategy to prevent any disruption to the process.

"Trump is trying to paint a silver lining around this very gray and ambiguous cloud of negotiations, in the hope that there might be a light at the end of the tunnel and the Islamic Republic agrees to stop enrichment," he said.

Kholdi said that Trump's expressions of confidence are largely intended to keep the Iranian delegation at the negotiating table. "Trump's optimism is mostly to keep the other side at the negotiating table."

“They had to rescue Assad,” Netanyahu said, adding that Iran wanted to send “one or two airborne divisions” to help the Syrian leader.

“We stopped that. We sent some F-16s to some Iranian planes that were making some routes to Damascus,” he said. “They turned back.”

Netanyahu made the announcement on Sunday in a speech which revealed insights into the country’s role in the fall of the long-time ruler, who was overthrown by insurgents in December.

At a Jewish News Syndicate conference, he said that Tehran sought to bolster Assad's position, especially after Hezbollah, a major ally in Lebanon, sustained considerable losses during last year's conflict with Israel.

Targeted airstrikes decimated Hezbollah's leadership, killing scores of top figures, including its long-time head Hassan Nasrallah, and obliterating extensive infrastructure both above and below ground.

"One of the most widespread and complex cyber attacks against the country's infrastructure was identified and preventive measures were taken," IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News quoted Behzad Akbari, CEO of Iran’s Telecommunications Infrastructure Company and Deputy ICT Minister as saying on Monday.

Akbari did not provide further details on the origins of the hack.

Only in September, Iran's Cybersecurity Strategic Management Center announced a state of cyber-readiness, issuing a red alert for financial, monetary, and communication sectors, and an orange alert for other sectors, according to Iranian media reports.

"Organizations are advised to maintain round-the-clock availability of technical teams and rapid response units due to the potential for cyber attacks," it said.

In the past Iran has blamed Israel for cyber attacks. A cyberattack that 70% of Iran's petrol stations in December 2023 was claimed by Gonjeshk-e-Darande or Predatory Sparrow, a hacking group that Iran has previously accused of having links to Israel.

In October 2021, Iran experienced a cyberattack that disrupted its fuel distribution system, affecting approximately 4,300 gas stations. Gholamreza Jalali, head of Iran’s civil defense organization, attributed the attack to foreign actors, specifically accusing the United States and Israel.

The cyberattack came just one day after Tehran and Washington concluded a third round of nuclear talks on Saturday in Oman.

Meanwhile, emergency services were fighting the fallout of a deadly explosion in Iran’s Rajaei Port in Bandar Abbas, with authorities yet to disclose the cause.

Emergency support was sent from Tehran's allies in Moscow to fight the disaster which saw at least 40 killed and hundreds more injured, according to Iran's official figures.

However, one worker at the port contacted Iran International saying that at least 23 women were killed in their office alone.