Iran International
The Islamic Republic will not return to what it was before the Israeli and American airstrikes, but what comes next is uncertain, experts tell Iran International.
The experts say Iran now faces a defining choice: abandon its decades-old doctrine of hostility toward Israel and the US, or double down and risk collapse.
“It's Ali Khamenei, whose worldview is arguably at the heart of why we ended up in this conflict,” said Alex Vatanka, Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute and founding director of its Iran Program.
Once seen as untouchable, the clerical state is now reeling—its authority at home weakened and its future uncertain, several Middle East analysts told Iran International.
“What pushback comes from within the regime?” Vatanka asked. “The policies of hardliners, of flexing muscle, having ballistic missiles, acts of resistance, fighting the good fight against US and Israel. That brought this disaster on Iran.”
Tehran failed to defend its airspace, protect officials and loyalists, or safeguard its nuclear and missile programs.
While Iran has long fomented regional instability, this is the first time in decades that war reached its own soil. That may prove a turning point.
“So the war against Israel and the United States, that was sold as something you do outside of Iran's borders. That war suddenly was happening on Iranian soil, literally in cities and towns where people live,” Vatanka said.
Change is coming
That internal tremor may not lead to collapse—but it could produce serious transformation.
“I do expect significant aftershock waves within the structure of the regime,” said Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence official and founder of Inside the Middle East: Intelligence Perspectives.
“Change within the regime, not the regime change,” Melamed said. “But again, it may be that the change within the regime will result in dynamic, that will result in, at the end of the day, change of the regime.”
Meanwhile, the Trump administration is taking a victory lap. President Trump posted Tuesday on Truth Social that China can now resume buying oil from Iran—a sharp turn from his previous threats.
“China can now continue to purchase Oil from Iran,” Trump wrote. “Hopefully, they will be purchasing plenty from the US, also. It was my Great Honor to make this happen!”
Only a month after warning the world against buying Iranian oi, Trump told reporters he hopes Iran will be “a great trading nation.”
Experts say the fact that Iran and Israel accepted a ceasefire signal that neither side wanted a prolonged conflict.
Some level of political change now appears unavoidable, according to Kamran Matin, Associate Professor of International Relations at the University of Sussex.
“The kinds of concessions that Iran will be compelled to make in the likely post-ceasefire talks over its nuclear and missile projects far exceeds the political ideological constraints of the current leadership of Khamenei,” Matin said.
“He has been forced to contradict himself on major matters of national security on a rather frequent basis since October 7.”
For now, observers are watching closely to see whether the Islamic Republic—feeling weakened—lashes out internally.
On Monday, Iranian authorities executed Mohammad-Amin Mahdavi-Shayesteh for allegedly spying for Israel.
“The regime might seek to alleviate its utter humiliation by dramatically intensifying its repression of dissidents and even repeat the 1988 mass execution of political prisoners,” Matin warned.
Such a move could spark widespread protests—potentially pushing an already fragile Islamic Republic toward collapse.
The airstrikes may have ended, but the real battle for Iran’s future is only beginning. Israeli strikes shook the Islamic Republic to its core. Its leadership is bruised, its power structure exposed, and its legitimacy at home deeply eroded.
Considered fearsome by Israel and their Lebanese countrymen, Hezbollah once held a de facto veto over politics in Lebanon by virtue of the arms and sought to scotch domestic discussion on turning in its arsenal.
Hezbollah members were accused of assassinating a former prime minister
A punishing war with Israel which crescendoed with attacks on Hezbollah leaders' communication devices sapped the group and much of its sway at home and abroad.
A chastened Hezbollah, once seen as a key deterrent for its Iranian patrons against Israeli attack, totally sat out the 12-day Iran-Israel war in which Tehran was bruised.
A political analyst in Beirut, who asked to remain anonymous for safety reasons, told Iran International: “It is very clear Hezbollah is not getting involved in the Iran-Israel war. They realized the cost is very high and they can’t afford to. Many of us here are simply watching and hoping that after this war on Iran, the whole region will be better.”
Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem’s recent statement rallied to Iran's side but stopped well short of pledging action.
“We in Hezbollah are not neutral between Iran’s legitimate rights and independence and America’s falsehood and aggression, and we act as we see fit in the face of the Israeli-American aggression against Iran.”
But after decades of wars in Lebanon, its people are tired, the analyst said.
“People here want peace, they want to work, to build the country back up. Iran is sending arms and money to Hezbollah to build Lebanon into a country according to its own vision. This isn’t what we want.”
Hezbollah not over
A Christian citizen, who asked to be called only by his first name George, told Iran International that Hezbollah's presence is Lebanon persisted despite setbacks.
"They are still very capable of creating domestic problems even if less so or a new war with Israel. We are now afraid they could cause another civil war, which would be a disaster for us to go through again,” George said.
Last year, Israel pounded the group and killed the group’s top political and military leadership, including its veteran charismatic leader Hassan Nasrallah.
Huge swathes of the group’s military capabilities have been degraded and infrastructure destroyed.
Israel continues to strike Hezbollah members, missile launchers and weapons caches. despite a US-France-brokered ceasefire.
George hopes the Israeli and US attacks against Iran could weaken the group.
“Iran is the father of Hezbollah, giving them arms, money, so this war will help a lot,” George said, hopeful of a brighter future for his homeland.
On the missile path
Lebanon sat below the pathway of Iranian missiles bound for Israel this month, with video footage showing Beirut's party life barely pausing as they streamed in the sky.
After Lebanon was under fire as Israel and Hezbollah battled it out last year, the peace feels eerily strange to some.
“It’s surreal to see this as we sit in the middle,” said one mother of three in Beirut who asked to be called Fatima.
“We have gone through so much, that of course we still fear Hezbollah can start something again, but it seems for now, they are not getting involved. I think it’s clear they know they are not strong enough after what we went through last year.”
However, there are those who still bear the scars of years of war with Israel. Ahmad, whose family are in Beirut and suffered displacement after the 2019 port explosion, told Iran International: “Personally I’m celebrating.
"I’m happy to see Iran’s rockets going to Israel because finally someone is doing this. No other country bombed back like this before.”
When asked if he thinks Lebanon and the Middle East could be more peaceful without the dominance and political influence of Tehran, he said: “No, I think that getting rid of Israel will bring peace.”
Lebanon is still paying a heavy price for the last round of conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, with thousands dead and wounded, and thousands more displaced.
Now, amid the war with Iran, several airlines have cancelled flights to Lebanon and diplomatic missions have evacuated staff despite the peak summer travel season.
The country’s political leadership is calling for calm, urging diplomatic solutions in fear of being dragged into yet another conflict.
President Joseph Aoun said on Sunday: "The recent escalation of Israeli-Iranian confrontations and the rapid developments accompanying them, particularly the bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities, are likely to raise fears of an expansion of tensions that threatens security and stability in more than one region and country."