Tuesday’s strike on the leadership of the Iran-backed Palestinian group Hamas in Doha aims to intimidate Tehran but also sows unease among Arab states, Israeli and American experts told Iran International.
The airstrikes on Tuesday apparently sought to assassinate Hamas's leadership and negotiating team, drawing condemnation from Qatar and its Arab neighbors.
They seemed to miss their intended targets, killing a Qatari security official and five lower-ranking Hamas personnel.
Miri Eisin, a retired colonel in the Israeli military who served in the intelligence establishment, said the attacks' upshot for Israel remains unclear, but even if unsuccessful sends a message of strength to Iran.
“This is actually something that shows Israel’s intelligence prowess. Even if the operation wasn’t successful and the leaders of Hamas left a few minutes before, we still know where they were,” she said.
“It makes everyone go ‘oh my god, Israel has amazing intelligence and operational capabilities and that threatens Iran’," Eisin added.
A 12-day surprise Israeli campaign against Iran in June battered the Islamic Republic's military and nuclear infrastructure and killed hundreds of civilians and military personnel along with several top nuclear scientists.
Israeli leaders mooted assassinating Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei but apparently made no attempt to do so, while Iran's President Massoud Pezeshkian, the parliament speaker and the judiciary chief survived an attack.
32 Israelis were killed in Iranian counterattacks, even as Israeli attacks on Iranian air defenses appeared to give Israeli planes free reins in enemy skies.
“They see that we have Qatar, and anywhere in Iran," Eisin said. "That’s very threatening and has an intimidating effect on Tehran. However, it also intimidates a lot of our other allies like the UAE and Bahrain.”
Those two Persian Gulf states had opened formal relations with Israel in the so-called Abraham Accords in 2020, but both condemned the attacks.
Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani condemned what he called a “reckless criminal attack” in a phone call with US President Donald Trump according to an official readout, adding it was “a flagrant violation of its sovereignty and security."
Trump told reporters he was "very unhappy about it, very unhappy about every aspect."
'Loose cannon'
Former Israeli military intelligence chief, Danny Citronowicz, said the move may bring diplomatic fallout and that Iran may now seek to exploit the strikes to drive a wedge between the Persian Gulf powers and Israel.
“It makes Israel seem like a loose cannon so it’s something Israel must take into consideration,” Citronowicz said. “The possible risk of spillover will worry the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Iran will now be able to pressure these countries with connections to Israel and exploit this to push their own agenda.”
Saudi Arabia is widely seen as the an ultimate diplomatic prize for Israel's drive to normalize its relations with regional powers. The world's top oil exporter is weary of Iran's regional policies but has said it will not recognize Israel until a Palestinian state is established.
Benham Ben Taleblu, an Iran expert at the US think tank the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD), told Iran International that the strikes conveyed that Israel is prepared to carry out assassinations despite diplomatic risks.
"Israel’s strike against Hamas leaders in Doha is yet another sign to the Islamic Republic and its Axis of Resistance that its terrorist leaders will not be be safe hiding in plain sight," he said.
However, the Iranian-American director of FDD"s Iran program said Iran will capitalize on the Doha attack for its political gains.
"Tehran is trying to spin the attack as a growing ring of Israeli aggression and part of quest for hegemony, which is quite rich for a regime which just orchestrated a multi-front war against Israel," he added.
Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, wrote, “The message of the Zionist entity’s recent crime in Qatar is clear: O countries of the region! Prepare yourselves for my coming domination.”
His comments came a day after Israeli warplanes bombed a Hamas office in Doha, in what Israel called an operation against the group’s senior leadership. Qatar condemned the attack as “criminal and cowardly,” while Iran labeled it an “extremely dangerous” violation of sovereignty and international law.
President Masoud Pezeshkian also condemned the strike as an “illegal, inhumane and anti-peace action,” telling Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani by phone that Tehran stood in solidarity with its Persian Gulf neighbor. “Attacking an independent country is a clear violation of national sovereignty and the UN Charter,” he said.
The strike in Doha, coordinated with Washington according to Israeli media, killed members of Hamas’s political bureau, though both Qatar and Hamas gave no details on casualties. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu later insisted the raid was “a wholly independent Israeli operation.”
Hamas, which has based its political leadership in Qatar for years, said its ceasefire delegation had survived the attack and accused the United States of enabling Israel’s actions while presenting itself as mediator.
The incident comes as Iran recalibrates its foreign policy after a June war with Israel and the United States devastated its military and nuclear infrastructure.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has in recent weeks sought Qatari mediation with the West, and Larijani is seen as a potential lead negotiator in renewed nuclear talks as UN sanctions loom.
Iranian media and analysts have floated his possible return to leading nuclear negotiations, amid suggestions the Supreme National Security Council could regain control of the dossier as Tehran faces looming UN sanctions under the European-triggered “snapback” mechanism.
The strike on Qatar marks a dangerous new front in a region still unsettled by June’s 12-day war, when Israeli and US forces targeted Iran’s nuclear facilities and military infrastructure.
"I am pleased to report that Elizabeth Tsurkov, a Princeton Student, whose sister is an American Citizen, was just released by Kata’ib Hezbollah (MILITANT Hezbollah), and is now safely in the American Embassy in Iraq after being tortured for many months," Trump wrote on Truth Social, without elaborating.
"I will always fight for JUSTICE, and never give up. HAMAS, RELEASE THE HOSTAGES, NOW!"
Tsurkov, a PhD student at Princeton University in New Jersey and fellow at the New Lines Institute, disappeared in March 2023 while conducting research in Iraq.
Her sister Emma confirmed Tsurkov's release after 903 days in captivity and thanked the Trump administration.
No group among Iraq's kaleidoscope of armed militias had claimed responsibility for her disappearance. Israeli officials believed she was being held by Kata’ib Hezbollah, an Iran-backed Shi’ite militia.
While the group has denied involvement, an Iraqi official had told Israel’s Channel 11 that she was first detained by Iraq’s intelligence service—or by individuals impersonating officers—before being transferred to the militia.
Kata’ib Hezbollah is one of several Iran-backed and funded armed groups which took part in Iraq's conflict against Islamic State militants but amassed power and influence by maintaining their arms after the fighting largely winded down.
While no official comment was made on the case by Tehran, an Iraqi security source told Iran International that among those considered for the exchange was Mohammadreza Nouri, a member of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force.
Nouri was sentenced to life imprisonment in Iraq in September 2023 for orchestrating the murder of American citizen Stephen Troell in Baghdad in November 2022. It was not clear if he was ultimately released.
Iran’s government said on Tuesday it does not currently have access to its stockpiles of enriched uranium following June’s 12-day war that devastated the country’s nuclear facilities, as its foreign minister traveled to Egypt for talks with the UN nuclear watchdog.
“In regard to uranium, we do not have access to it. It is in a location where access does not exist,” government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani told reporters at her weekly press briefing, without giving details of where the material is being held.
Her remarks came as Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrived in Cairo for meetings with Egyptian officials and IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi. The talks are expected to focus on a new framework for nuclear inspections after Iran suspended cooperation with the agency in July.
Foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei confirmed late on Monday that “negotiations on the new protocol for Iran’s safeguards obligations will be finalized” during the Cairo meeting.
He said three rounds of technical talks had already produced a draft text that is now in its final stage.
Tasnim, citing an informed source on Tuesday, reported: “Today’s meeting between Abbas Araghchi and Rafael Grossi, the IAEA director general, is significant and will be held in Egypt within hours.”
The unnamed source added: “Although nothing has been finalized yet, a potential agreement between Iran and the Agency is possible.”
Voicing skepticism over progress in the Cairo talks, Laurence Norman, a correspondent for the Wall Street Journal, reported on Tuesday that he had learned “there is no agreement in place between Tehran and the agency, and the situation remains unclear.”
Mohajerani also referred to Iran’s complaint that IAEA inspectors had removed confidential documents from the Fordow enrichment site earlier this year.
“In early May, two documents accessed by inspectors were transferred to Vienna. After Iran submitted a written protest, the authorization of those two inspectors was revoked and their cooperation with Iran ended,” she said.
The government spokeswoman added that Iran’s future cooperation with the IAEA will be shaped by a law passed by parliament in June curbing the agency’s access, but stressed that any decision on leaving the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) “will ultimately be made by the system as a whole.”
On Monday, the watchdog's chief dismissed allegations that IAEA data had been misused to enable attacks on facilities, calling the allegation “an absurd narrative.” The agency, he said, had never shared confidential inspection information and was discussing additional measures to reassure Iran that safeguards data remained secure.
Rafael Grossi also told governors that Iran’s suspension of cooperation under a new domestic law cannot override its binding international commitments.
Several Iranian sources told Iran International that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei instructed President Masoud Pezeshkian to seek mediation through the emir of Qatar to ease tensions with the West.
The diplomatic push comes as Britain, France, and Germany triggered the so-called “snapback” mechanism at the United Nations aimed at restoring all sanctions on Iran, citing Tehran’s refusal to meet Western demands over its nuclear and missile programs.
