Israel strike in Qatar signals drive for regional dominance, Iran security chief warns

China’s foreign ministry said on Wednesday the resumption of supervision by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was “a positive step in promoting the easing of the Iran nuclear issue.”

“Congratulations! It is a good moment for the E3 to stop and cancel the SnapBack procedure in order to keep the positive trend,” Moscow’s envoy to international organizations in Vienna, Mikhail Ulyanov, wrote on X shortly after IAEA chief Rafael Grossi unveiled the deal in Cairo.

Grossi said he and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi had agreed on “practical modalities” for inspections during talks in the Egyptian capital, describing the step as “a door we are opening” toward restoring verification activities that were cut off after Israeli and US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities earlier this year.

Araghchi told reporters the understanding was designed to reflect “Iran’s exceptional security conditions and the Agency’s technical requirements,” while warning that Tehran would void the deal if “hostile actions” such as the reinstatement of Security Council resolutions were pursued.

The European powers triggered the snapback mechanism under UN Security Council resolution 2231 in late August, a process that will restore international sanctions unless the Council adopts a new resolution by the end of September to extend relief. The mechanism was activated after the three accused Tehran of failing to comply with nuclear obligations.

The resumption of inspections is seen as a critical step in assessing Iran’s stockpiles of enriched uranium and its compliance with the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Western diplomats say any suspension of the snapback move would depend on Iran’s willingness to implement the deal in full.

In response to an Iran International request for submissions at the start of the new school year, Iranians submitted audio, text and video messages describing their concerns.

A recurring theme was the so-called “voluntary support” or enrollment fees in public schools—charges that schools make a condition for school attendance.

“My son has straight A’s and was accepted into a NODET school with flying colors, but I can't afford 2 billion rials for his tuition,” one message said. “The Iranian government is stripping away our children’s right to education.”

Gifted students who pass the National Organization for Development of Exceptional Talents (NODET) exams can technically apply for tuition waivers if they cannot cover the costs.

Since 2023, the government has also promised tuition-free education for disadvantaged students, covering registration and other expenses. But parents say the reality is far different.

Another parent reported that public schools refused to enroll their child unless tuition was fully paid. “Due to joblessness and financial pressure, I still haven’t been able to enroll my child,” they said.

Some families even shared their children’s transcripts, noting that despite top grades, schools demanded steep enrollment fees. “My child tops every grade, yet the school demands 140 million rials ($137),” one parent said. “This clearly predicts a brain drain for our gifted students.”

A family in Ahvaz described wide variations in preschool and high school fees. “For high school, they demanded 150 million rials ($148), and one school asked for 350 million rials ($346). For preschool, they required an initial 16 million rial form fee, then 80 million rials ($79) for enrollment, plus 23 million rials ($22) for stationery.”

Some parents highlighted new obstacles, including compulsory preschool attendance. “Preschool isn’t mandatory, but when registering my son for first grade, they said he must attend preschool for a month with payment. The principal said it’s enough to pay, even if he attends just one session,” one parent wrote.

Others reported coercive practices. “My son goes to a public school. In June, before receiving his report card, they demanded 25 million rials per student for the new year. Without payment, next year’s registration wouldn’t proceed, and they withheld the report card,” a parent said.

Islamic dress code for girls

Families with daughters also face higher costs due to mandatory uniforms that comply with Islamic dress codes.

“The uniform for girls costs about 10 million rials ($9), and we paid 130 million rials ($128) for school transportation. Additional fees are charged throughout the year,” another parent said.

University tuition has followed a similar trajectory, rising sharply in recent semesters. “In previous semesters, I paid 32 million rials ($31) for 19 units, but now they want 70 million rials ($69) for 20 units. In this economic situation, it’s nearly impossible,” one student said.

A student in Mashhad reported that tuition at Azad University had increased by at least 70% compared to the previous semester. “The academic year at Azad University began with a major shock.

Students faced heavy costs for course registration. In humanities and arts, tuition has risen three to five times,” said Samira Rahi, a journalist in Turkey. “Many students have had to take a leave of absence or drop out due to these costs.”

Globally, countries allocate about 5% of GDP to education. Iran spends just 2.93% (2023), compared with the global average of 4.4%, according to The Global Economy, an online data resource.

"I am pleased to report that Elizabeth Tsurkov, a Princeton Student, whose sister is an American Citizen, was just released by Kata’ib Hezbollah (MILITANT Hezbollah), and is now safely in the American Embassy in Iraq after being tortured for many months," Trump wrote on Truth Social, without elaborating.

"I will always fight for JUSTICE, and never give up. HAMAS, RELEASE THE HOSTAGES, NOW!"

Tsurkov, a PhD student at Princeton University in New Jersey and fellow at the New Lines Institute, disappeared in March 2023 while conducting research in Iraq.

Her sister Emma confirmed Tsurkov's release after 903 days in captivity and thanked the Trump administration.

No group among Iraq's kaleidoscope of armed militias had claimed responsibility for her disappearance. Israeli officials believed she was being held by Kata’ib Hezbollah, an Iran-backed Shi’ite militia.

While the group has denied involvement, an Iraqi official had told Israel’s Channel 11 that she was first detained by Iraq’s intelligence service—or by individuals impersonating officers—before being transferred to the militia.

Kata’ib Hezbollah is one of several Iran-backed and funded armed groups which took part in Iraq's conflict against Islamic State militants but amassed power and influence by maintaining their arms after the fighting largely winded down.

While no official comment was made on the case by Tehran, an Iraqi security source told Iran International that among those considered for the exchange was Mohammadreza Nouri, a member of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force.

Nouri was sentenced to life imprisonment in Iraq in September 2023 for orchestrating the murder of American citizen Stephen Troell in Baghdad in November 2022. It was not clear if he was ultimately released.

“By taxing the very assets people depend on for financial stability, the regime’s policies place an even greater burden on them,” it said in a statement posted on its Persian-language account on X Tuesday.

It said this decision "clearly demonstrates the regime’s disregard for the welfare of its citizens."

"Years of economic mismanagement and corruption have severely devalued Iran’s currency and forced many Iranians to rely on these assets as a hedge against inflation," the statement added.

The criticism comes as Iran introduced a new law making inflation partly taxable.

Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian formally signed the tax bill last month, after it was passed by parliament in late June.

The law targets capital gains on real estate, vehicles, gold, jewelry, silver, platinum, foreign currency and even cryptocurrencies. However, the law imposes tax not only on capital gains but also on half of the inflation-driven increases to asset prices.

Iran faces one of the highest inflation rates in the region. According to the International Monetary Fund's estimates, the annual inflation rate has averaged above 42% since 2020.

Since 2021, when the late-president Ebrahim Raisi took to power, the Iranian government’s tax revenues increased by over 300%.

Experts say inflation is one reason behind the increase in taxes, but argue that even after adjusting for inflation, the government should have raised taxation by at most 160%, not 326%.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on Sunday warned of an enemy plot to impose a harmful “no war, no peace” stalemate on Iran.

He alluded to the widespread fears of renewed conflict but stopped short of addressing them directly.

The “dangerous” limbo—as he called it—will be broken either by peace or by war. Yet peace would require a dramatic shift he has rejected in both word and deed, leaving only one option, even if not stated openly.

Why war seems manageable

For Tehran, war offers a chance to present itself as a power “standing firm against the enemy.”

That narrative rests on two premises: exaggerating the damage inflicted on Israel while recasting Iran’s own losses as “sacrifice” and “resilience.” This ability to redefine reality makes war appear containable, even when the battlefield balance tilts against Iran.

Conflict also strengthens institutions like the Revolutionary Guards and Basij, which dominate not only security but much of Iran’s economy and politics.

External crises bring them bigger budgets, wider powers, and a firmer grip on the state. Sustained tension, even without outright war, keeps them central to decision-making.

Bureaucratically, war simplifies governance.

An external threat sidelines factional disputes, concentrates power in one command center, and allows sensitive decisions to be postponed. In such conditions, obedience to central authority becomes the overriding principle.

Why change is riskier

Unlike war, which has a clear adversary and defined parameters, internal change is unpredictable.

The leadership knows genuine reform could set off a chain of fresh demands that quickly spiral out of control—especially when combined with external pressure. For a system built on concentrated power and tight social control, this is far riskier than conflict it believes it can at least spin through propaganda.

History reinforces this fear.

The Soviet collapse is interpreted in Tehran as the direct result of political liberalization. At home, the reform movement of the 1990s triggered demands that Khamenei deemed intolerable, ending in repression.

These experiences mean even cautious proposals—from economists or technocrats—are viewed as existential threats.

The IRGC and other power centers oppose change not only for security reasons but because their vast economic interests are at stake. Reform would mean redistribution of both power and wealth, making them natural adversaries of any shift.

A managed crisis—or a trap?

From Tehran’s perspective, war is “manageable”: it mobilizes security and propaganda, strengthens key institutions, and produces a narrative of defiance. Change, by contrast, has no clear enemy, no obvious tools of control, and no reliable endpoint.

Yet relying on crisis as a survival strategy carries its own risks.

Each confrontation further depletes Iran’s economic and social capacity. Emigration, a shrinking middle class, and crumbling infrastructure all show that the politics of permanent crisis may deliver short-term cohesion but erodes long-term survival.

The essential question is how long a state can balance on the edge of crisis before that very crisis slips out of control.

The answer is uncertain. What is clear is that the Islamic Republic still believes change, not war, is the greater danger to its survival.