Oil, gas and Iran economic analyst
The uptake of Iranian oil at Chinese ports hit highs last seen before Donald Trump reentered the White House in early 2025 and revived his so-called maximum pressure campaign, tanker-tracking data obtained by Iran International reveals.
Figures from commodities intelligence company Kpler shows a sharp rise in Iranian oil offloaded at Chinese ports last month in a sign the world's top oil importer was unfazed by attempted US curbs on Tehran's supplies.
The surge was so significant that Iran’s unsold crude stored at sea in Asian waters—which had been building for months— fell by half in just one month, in a sign of stepped up demand.
According to Kpler, Iranian crude offloaded at Chinese ports in August hit 1.68 million barrels per day (bpd)—a 23% jump from July.
Floating storage dropped to 15 million barrels by September 7, down from 30 million barrels in early August, much of it concentrated near Malaysia.
Since the start of the year, the US Treasury has sanctioned 127 tankers along with dozens of individuals, companies and networks accused of skirting US sanctions on Iranian flows, which it says enriches Tehran's aggressive military moves.
Tehran denounces the sanctions as an attack on the livelihood of its people and bid to bend its policy to Western will.
The frenetic pace of new curbs manifested itself at times in near daily new US announcements on entities in the Treasury and State Department crosshairs for allegedly moving Iran's oil.
Yet the administration’s pledge to “bring Iran’s oil exports to zero” appears to have fallen far short of its intent, the data indicates.
Both loading and discharging volumes of Iranian crude are higher than last year.
While month-to-month fluctuations in Chinese port discharges have been sharp, the overall trend shows growth. On average, China has discharged 1.45 million bpd of Iranian crude over the first eight months of 2025, slightly above the same period last year.
This transpired despite Washington blacklisting more than a hundred “ghost fleet” tankers linked to Iranian smuggling operations.
China holds the key
US efforts to dismantle Iran’s smuggling networks—through monitoring ship-to-ship transfers, forged documents and hidden financial channels—could eventually slow Tehran’s trade.
But Beijing’s willingness to greenlight purchases of Iranian oil appears to have carried the day. Without Chinese cooperation, Washington’s “maximum pressure” strategy could face failure.
Chinese Premier Xi Jinping hosted Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian along with heads of state from Russia, North Korea and other nations not aligned with the United States for an international conference and military parade this month.
The spectacle was widely interpreted as a show of strength and defiance toward American preeminence in global politics and trade and a sign that sharp policy swerves by the Trump administration on sanctions and tariffs were rejected.
Beijing’s insistence on importing Iranian oil is not driven by supply shortages or price discounts alone. The market is oversupplied, and prices are lower than last year.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) noted in its September 11 report that global oil production this year is expected to rise by 2.7 million bpd, while demand will increase by only 700,000 bpd.
Analysts estimate Tehran grants Chinese refiners discounts of $4-6 per barrel to keep crude moving. Yet China’s persistence in overlooking US sanctions may also serve as a bargaining chip in trade talks.
Since returning to office, President Trump has reimposed multiple layers of tariffs on Chinese goods, and US Census Bureau data shows imports from China fell 19% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025.
China’s refusal to enforce US oil sanctions against Iran could thus be part of a broader strategy to leverage concessions from Washington in its trade disputes.
Oil-for-goods nexus
Another key factor is that Chinese exports to Iran are closely tied to oil imports. Crude shipments underpin China’s status as Iran’s largest trading partner, with part of Tehran’s oil payments settled through barter with Chinese goods.
Beyond crude, China is also the main buyer of Iran’s petroleum and petrochemical products, which together account for about half of the country’s total exports.
Despite US sanctions this year on nine tankers carrying Iranian liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), consultancy Vortexa reports Iran’s LPG exports rose to 1.1 million tons in August. Kpler data indicates China absorbs around 80% of that trade.
By relying on imports of Iranian oil and petroleum products, China now accounts for more than a quarter of Iran’s total goods imports—underscoring how central Beijing has become to Tehran’s economic survival.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told state TV that the Cairo agreement with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Rafael Grossi “recognizes Iran’s legitimate security concerns,” aligns cooperation with a new domestic legal framework, and does not by itself reopen facilities to inspectors.
“Based on this agreement, no access is being granted to IAEA inspectors at the moment,” he said. “The nature and scope of inspectors’ access will be discussed in due course after Iran submits its reports, and any access will be negotiated at the appropriate time.”
Araghchi said one exception continues under an earlier decision. “No access is granted now except at the Bushehr power plant due to a fuel change. This access was approved by the Supreme National Security Council and is ongoing,” he said.
He stressed that the document reflects Tehran’s post-June war posture. “A new situation was created after the attacks on our nuclear facilities. Cooperation cannot be the same as before and must take a new form,” he said.
“The agreement has accepted Iran’s security concerns as legitimate, recognized Iran’s rights, and defines a new shape of cooperation with the Agency. This was exactly what we sought.”
Cairo pact cleared by top authorities
Araghchi said the government’s approach has been cleared at the highest level. “The negotiations and the provisions needed to meet our concerns were raised and approved at the Supreme National Security Council,” he said, adding that under Iran’s law “everything must be approved by the SNSC, and that pathway is recognized in this document.”
He also tied the accord’s implementation to the broader diplomatic track with Europe, which has triggered the UN “snapback” mechanism to restore sanctions unless monitoring advances.
“I must emphasize that the validity and continuation of this agreement depend on there being no hostile action against the Islamic Republic, including activation of snapback,” Araghchi said, echoing similar remarks by Grossi earlier in the day.
'Deal is void if sanctions return'
“I said clearly in the negotiations, to our Egyptian hosts and at the press conference, that if any hostile action is taken, including the reinstatement of cancelled UN Security Council resolutions, Iran will consider these practical steps null and void.”
Araghchi called the Cairo talks “a step in the right direction to remove pretexts” used by critics. “It disarms those who sought to exploit the situation for their own purposes,” he said, while thanking Egypt’s president and foreign minister for facilitating the discussions.
Grossi, briefing IAEA member states in Vienna earlier in the day, described the technical document as setting out procedures for inspections, notifications and reporting and said it is intended to restore safeguards activity across Iran’s declared program.
“This includes all facilities and installations in Iran, and it also contemplates the required reporting on all the attacked facilities, including the nuclear material present at those,” he said.
He added that safeguards approaches for each site would be reviewed at a technical level “in line with the rights and obligations of Iran and the Agency under the NPT Safeguards Agreement, which are not modified or amended as a result of these practical steps.”
Grossi said resuming work after the June strikes that forced inspectors to withdraw would not be “an automatic or simple bureaucratic process,” but welcomed what he called Iran’s stated decision to remain within the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty framework.
“Iran and the Agency will now resume cooperation in a respectful and comprehensive way,” he said, while cautioning there could be “difficulties and issues to be resolved” during implementation.
Britain, France and Germany began the snapback process in late August, saying they would pause it only if Iran restored inspections, accounted for its highly enriched uranium stockpile and engaged in nuclear talks with the United States.
Diplomats say whether the new steps will be sufficient to head off sanctions will hinge on how quickly inspectors can resume work on the ground and whether Tehran provides a full accounting.
Araghchi emphasized that the new arrangement is calibrated to Iran’s internal law while keeping a door open to technical engagement. “The new framework moves exactly along the path set by the parliament’s law,” he said. “It pays attention to Iran’s security concerns, recognizes Iran’s rights, and defines a new shape of cooperation with the Agency. We hope this will advance a diplomatic solution—provided the other side is serious about one.”