Against Iran’s politics of exclusion, pluralism is the point

“The fight against narcotics and alcoholic beverages must be a priority, because the enemy is using these areas as tools to undermine security and strike at society,” Mohammad Movahedi said at a meeting of senior judiciary officials.

Speaking at a session focused on security and judicial coordination, Movahedi warned that after failing to achieve their aims through military confrontation, Iran’s enemies were shifting toward what he described as efforts to foment social dissatisfaction and ethnic tension.

He stressed the need for vigilance, closer cooperation with the public, and what he called “people-based intelligence” to counter internal threats.

Movahedi also urged tougher action against smuggling and economic corruption, called for stronger border controls including the expansion of X-ray screening at customs points, and highlighted the importance of reducing prison populations through alternatives to incarceration for non-security offenses.

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  Forbidden but flowing: alcohol slips quietly into public life in Iran

Alcohol is illegal in Iran under Islamic Republic law and carries penalties including fines, flogging and imprisonment, but it is widely consumed.

Despite periodic crackdowns, homemade and smuggled alcohol remains common, particularly in large cities, and alcohol poisoning outbreaks linked to illicit production have repeatedly highlighted the gap between strict legal bans and social reality.

Ali Mohammad Naini, spokesman for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), said Israel and its allies had pursued a dual strategy during the conflict: direct military confrontation alongside efforts to destabilize Iran from within.

“The enemy’s defeat in the 12-day war was precisely here,” Naini said. “They tried to drag the war inside the country, but that project failed.”

Naini was speaking at a meeting to organize commemorations for December 30, a state-marked anniversary tied to mass rallies that followed the disputed 2009 presidential election and the suppression of the Green Movement protests – one of the largest episodes of unrest in Iran’s recent history.

The Green Movement is often cited alongside the 2019 Bloody November protests and the 2022 Woman, Life, Freedom demonstrations as the most significant challenges to the Islamic Republic since its founding.

Naini said Iran’s adversaries had assumed that air strikes would be followed by protests, riots or internal collapse, repeating what he described as a long-standing “illusion of chaos” rooted in past episodes of unrest.

“They sat in their war rooms with a wrong calculation, waiting for disorder, riots and the breakdown of the country from within,” he said.

Instead, Naini said the attacks were followed by large public reactions that included anti-Israel rallies and funerals for those killed, which he portrayed as demonstrations of national unity.

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He said Israel underestimated what he described as a “fortress-like” popular cohesion and that attempts at what Iranian officials often call soft war or cognitive war aimed at weakening society from within were completely unsuccessful.

“The enemy shifted from military war to cognitive war, using pessimism, division and exaggerating social dissatisfaction to weaken the unity that was formed,” Naini said.

The remarks come as regional tensions remain high and as Israel weighs next steps.

NBC News reported over the weekend that Israeli officials are preparing to brief US President Donald Trump on options for possible new military strikes on Iran, citing concerns that Tehran is rebuilding facilities linked to ballistic missile production and repairing air defenses damaged in earlier attacks.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to raise the issue during an upcoming meeting with Trump, including options for US support or participation in any future action, according to the report.

Trump has repeatedly said US strikes in June destroyed Iran’s nuclear capabilities and has warned Tehran against trying to rebuild them. Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons and says its military and nuclear programs are defensive.

Naini said Iran continues to monitor what he described as hostile plans closely, adding that the lesson Iranian officials draw from both past unrest and the recent war is that internal cohesion remains decisive in confronting external threats.

“Today, one gram of gold is equal to a full month’s minimum wage for a worker,” said Habib Sadeghzadeh Tabrizi, an inspector with the country’s High Council of Islamic Labor Councils.

He added the collapse in real wages has reached a point where the traditional phrase “shrinking dinner table” no longer applies, adding that many workers effectively have no table left.

With gold trading at around 135.5 million rials per gram – roughly $104 at current exchange rates, and the dollar near 1.3 million rials, he said the gap between official wages and real living costs has become untenable.

He said runaway inflation has stripped Article 41 of Iran’s labor law – meant to link wages to inflation and living costs – of any practical meaning, adding that salaries now lose value even before they are paid.

Sadeghzadeh said wages for the current year were set when the dollar stood near 850,000 rials, but have since been overtaken by a sharp currency slide, leaving workers unable to plan even basic daily expenses.

“If this trend continues, it will not only destroy workers’ livelihoods but also undermine production and the wider economy,” he said, adding that fair tax exemptions and wage adjustments in line with real inflation are now a national necessity, not a sectoral demand.

In 1956, Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev stunned the communist world by denouncing Joseph Stalin’s crimes in a closed-door speech at the Communist Party Congress.

The address, later leaked, raised expectations that the Soviet system might be capable of reform from within. Instead, it exposed pressures the leadership struggled to contain, contributing to unrest at home and rebellion abroad—notably in Hungary—and ultimately reinforcing the limits of permissible change.

That pattern—tactical relaxation under pressure, followed by retrenchment—offers a useful lens for understanding Iran’s current moment.

Since June’s 12-day war with Israel and the United States, the Islamic Republic has been navigating what officials privately describe as a convergence of external threat and internal fragility.

Internationally, Tehran faces deepening isolation and a US administration that has shown a willingness to use force. Domestically, the aftershocks of the 2022 Woman, Life, Freedom uprising continue to shape public behavior and elite anxiety.

Lifeline: patriotism

Against that backdrop, the state has adopted a dual strategy.

On one track, it has sought to soften flashpoints—particularly hijab enforcement—that could reignite street unrest. Police patrols have become less visible, enforcement more uneven, and officials have emphasized “cultural” rather than coercive methods.

On another track, the leadership has leaned into a form of state-sponsored nationalism that draws selectively on Iran’s pre-Islamic past.

Last month, authorities unveiled a statue in Tehran depicting the Roman Emperor Valerian kneeling before the Sassanid king Shapur I, commemorating a third-century Persian victory over Rome. The accompanying slogan—“You will kneel before Iran again”—was echoed in imagery portraying Israel’s prime minister in a similar posture.

Such symbolism would have been unthinkable for much of the theocracy’s history, when pre-Islamic iconography was treated with suspicion or outright hostility.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reinforced this shift in July when, in his first public appearance after the war, he asked a religious eulogist to perform “Ey Iran,” a nationalist song associated with the pre-revolutionary era.

The gesture was widely read, both inside Iran and abroad, as an attempt to blur the line between religious authority and national identity—and by some, as a signal of potential recalibration.

‘Let a hundred flowers bloom’

History suggests caution. Authoritarian systems have often reached for controlled liberalization or symbolic inclusion during moments of acute stress, only to reverse course once the immediate danger recedes.

Mao Zedong’s 1957 “Hundred Flowers” campaign—launched in part to manage the fallout from Khrushchev’s de-Stalinization—famously invited criticism before giving way to a sweeping crackdown when dissent exceeded official expectations.

Iran’s trajectory over recent months has followed a similar arc.

Even as officials spoke of unity and restraint, legislation advanced to tighten restrictions on speech, expand capital punishment for acts of dissent, and broaden the security services’ remit online.

Arrests and executions have continued at a steady pace, and pressure on journalists, activists and minority communities has intensified.

Earlier this month, Khamenei dismissed criticism of hijab laws as part of a Western ideological campaign, warning domestic media against amplifying such views. The judiciary chief swiftly followed suit, announcing a more coordinated effort involving police and prosecutors—a signal less of retreat than of reorganization.

The episode underscores a recurring dynamic in the Islamic Republic’s history: moments of apparent opening that generate speculation about reform, followed by moves that reassert control once the boundaries of dissent become clearer.

As with Khrushchev’s speech nearly seven decades ago, the significance may lie less in the promise of change than in what the response reveals about the system’s underlying anxieties—and the limits it is ultimately prepared to enforce.

Iranian media reported that prices for various types of nuts and dried fruit have risen between 40 percent and, in some cases such as pistachios and cashews, up to 100 percent compared with last year.

Yalda is an ancient Iranian celebration marking the longest night of the year, observed on the winter solstice, usually on December 20 or 21. Families and friends gather after sunset to stay awake through the night, symbolizing the triumph of light over darkness and the gradual return of longer days.

Dideban Iran, citing official data, said the surge reflects higher production costs, currency volatility and rising packaging expenses, according to traders active in the sector.

Vendors told the outlet that demand has dropped markedly compared with last year, despite Yalda being one of Iran’s most important traditional celebrations, when families typically gather around tables filled with fruit, nuts and sweets.

The evening centres on shared food, especially pomegranates and watermelon, which are associated with health, renewal, and the memory of summer. A common ritual is fal-e Hafez, the practice of opening the poetry book of Hafez and reading verses believed to offer insight or guidance. Rooted in pre-Islamic traditions and linked to Zoroastrian ideas of light and renewal, Yalda remains a widely observed cultural event in Iran, bringing together generations around storytelling, poetry, and collective resilience against the cold and dark of winter.

Instalment sales

The prices for Yalda nuts were up 40 to 45 percent year on year, Mehdi Bakhtiari-Zadeh, acting head of Tehran’s municipal fruit and vegetable markets organization, said on Wednesday. The retail price of a kilogram of sweet nut mix this year, he said, stands at about 6,660,000 rials (around $5), compared with roughly 4,000,000 to 4,500,000 rials ($3 to 3.5) last year.

Average monthly income for workers in Iran in 2025 is generally less than $150.

With household purchasing power eroded, Dideban Iran reported that some shops have resorted to alternative sales methods, including instalment plans and even accepting checks, to attract customers unwilling or unable to pay upfront.

Sweets shrink as costs climb

Rising costs have also hit the confectionery sector. The ILNA news agency quoted Ali Bahremand, head of Tehran’s confectioners and pastry sellers union, as saying there is no shortage of raw materials, but high prices have pushed consumers toward buying smaller quantities, often half-kilogram boxes instead of larger ones.

According to Bahremand’s remarks, the prices of key inputs such as cooking oil and eggs have increased by about 167 percent and 200 percent respectively compared with the same period last year, contributing to a sharp fall in overall sweet purchases.

The price hikes come amid broader increases in basic goods approved by the government in recent months. Citizens have told Iran International that dairy prices, another key ingredient for Yalda treats, have risen sharply, with some families saying such products have already been removed from their diets, underscoring how traditional celebrations are increasingly shaped by economic strain.