Professor Emeritus of Government and Politics, George Mason University
The latest wave of protests in Iran once more demonstrated both the depth of popular opposition to the Islamic Republic and the limits of mass mobilization in the absence of a decisive breakdown in the regime’s coercive capacity.
As observed by numerous scholars of revolution, opposition forces are almost never in a strong position to defeat a regime’s armed forces. Revolutions occur when, for whatever reason, those armed forces stop suppressing the opposition.
This can happen for different reasons. One is that personnel within the armed forces simply refuse to carry out orders to suppress the opposition, as occurred in the democratic revolutions in much of Eastern Europe in 1989 and in subsequent “color revolutions” elsewhere.
The Islamic Republic’s armed forces, however, have so far proven quite willing to suppress Iranian citizens.
Another possibility is that the regime is more frightened of its armed forces than of its opponents, and therefore does not allow them to act forcefully for fear that they might seize power after suppressing the opposition.
This is what happened in Iran in 1979. But while Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi was unwilling to use force effectively against his opponents, the Islamic Republic has shown no such hesitation.
Yet another scenario is that a split develops within the ranks of an authoritarian regime’s armed forces, with significant elements defecting to the opposition.
A defection by a key commander can quickly cascade, as occurred over just a few days in the Philippines in 1986. When such a defection occurs, the remaining security forces are confronted not merely with suppressing unarmed civilians, but with fighting armed men like themselves—a prospect they often wish to avoid.
This has not yet occurred in Iran, but in my view it remains the likeliest path to bringing down the Islamic Republic.
What would it take for this to happen? Most probably, it would require officers to feel confident that their institution would survive the regime’s downfall and remain intact under a new political order.
The commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are less likely to feel such confidence than Iran’s regular armed forces. But even if elements of the regular military were willing to defect to the opposition, they would likely still have to fight the IRGC—unless the latter collapsed when faced with the prospect of confronting the regular army.
These are the fraught calculations confronting those within Iran’s armed forces who share the population’s opposition to the regime.
The Trump administration might be able to affect this calculus through attacks that degrade the IRGC, but not Iran’s regular armed forces.
In other words, for the regular military to risk turning against the regime, it would have to believe both that it could defeat the IRGC and its Basij allies, and that it would itself survive the fall of the Islamic Republic.
Alternatively, some kind of deal would have to be made with IRGC commanders, assuring them of integration into a new regime’s armed forces.
On its face, of course, such an idea is utterly repugnant.
There is also the hope that rank-and-file members of the regime’s armed forces might refuse orders to fire on demonstrators and instead turn their weapons against their commanders and the regime. This, however, does not appear likely.
That being the case, the only viable path to bringing down the regime may be some form of accommodation with key elements of its armed forces.
The Trump administration’s transactional approach to foreign policy might make it more open to attempting this. But America’s authoritarian Arab allies may be even more fearful of a democratic Iran than of a weakened Islamic Republic. The mere existence of a democratic Iran could inspire democratic movements in Arab countries—something their rulers are keen to avoid.
Conservative Israeli governments, too, have long taken a dim view of democratic movements in Muslim countries, which they do not expect to be as accommodating as certain authoritarian Arab governments that have signed the Abraham Accords.
Israel and Iran’s Arab neighbors, in particular, can therefore be expected to lobby the Trump administration about the dangers and unpredictability of political change in Iran.
Unfortunately, all this suggests that without key defections from within Iran’s armed forces—or efforts by the United States or other outside powers to encourage them—the Islamic Republic is more likely than not to remain in power.
The best hope for Iran’s democratic opposition is to secure an accommodation with key elements of the armed forces that would trigger the kind of security-force defections seen in successful democratic revolutions elsewhere.
This is far easier said than done. But where it has happened, it has often come suddenly and unexpectedly.
I sincerely hope this will happen in Iran.
Waters, a co-founder of Pink Floyd, made the remarks on Piers Morgan Uncensored on Friday when asked about nationwide protests in Iran.
He said calls for political change were not representative of the public and portrayed the demonstrations as driven by economic pressures such as inflation and currency depreciation.
“The Iranians do not want regime change,” Waters said, adding that protesters were focused on economic pressures rather than political transformation.
Waters also dismissed support for a return to monarchy or any political role for the former shah’s son, Reza Pahlavi, whose name has been chanted by protesters in the streets.
Accusations of distorting protesters’ demands
The comments drew swift pushback from Iranian users online, many of whom said Waters misrepresented the scale and slogans of the protests. Critics accused him of echoing official narratives and downplaying the extent of violence against demonstrators.
In response, activists launched an online petition titled “Show Roger Waters the True Desires of Iranians.” Arash F., the organizer, said Iran was at a critical moment and that Waters’ remarks prompted the campaign to convey what the petition describes as the demands of most Iranians at home and abroad.
“The people of Iran want regime change. The people of Iran are tired of Islam being imposed on them. The people of Iran at this point welcome any means that helps to rid us from these tyrants and thieves that operate our country,” the petition text said.
It urges Waters not to speak on behalf of Iranians and invites him to witness conditions firsthand if he wishes to comment.
Iranian rapper Shahin Najafi also weighed in on X, delivering one of the sharpest rebukes of Waters’ comments.
Najafi wrote that a figure he described as a public defender of Hamas had no legitimacy to comment on what he called the Iranian people’s revolution or their demands, arguing that such remarks amounted to aligning with “terrorist regime” and the Iranian authorities.
“More than twelve thousand Iranians have been killed by the regime’s forces. By justifying this violence, you stand complicit with the Islamic Republic. After Iran is freed from this child-killing terrorist regime, you will owe the Iranian people a clear and public apology,” he wrote.
Iranian musician and television host Arash Sobhani also criticized Waters in a post on X, saying the interview was a reminder that when an artist “replaces truth with ideology,” they stop being an artist and become a propagandist.
Sobhani added that similar images and narratives would likely be used to fire up audiences at Waters’ upcoming concerts, ending his post with a pointed reference to Pink Floyd’s Another Brick in the Wall.
Claims about protest violence
In another part of the interview, Waters attributed the killing of protesters not to state forces but to “organized armed thugs,” which he suggested could be linked to foreign intelligence services including MI6 and the CIA.
“The government sent the police out to protect those grocers, those business owners, those ordinary working people in Iran. They were attacked by gangs of armed thugs who murdered… Armed thugs probably organized by MI6 and the CIA,” said Waters.
The allegation, made without evidence, was widely criticized online as repeating official talking points and minimizing responsibility for the crackdown.
Iran International has previously reported that at least 12,000 people were killed in the largest mass killing in Iran’s modern history, during protests on January 8 and 9 that were carried out largely by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Basij on the orders of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
User reactions remained sharp. One X user wrote that they had once admired Waters but now saw his comments as either naive or financially motivated. Another accused him of “washing away the blood of Iranians” by distorting reality.
Others shared altered images of Waters wearing a clerical turban, depicting him as sympathetic to authoritarian governments and armed groups in the region – posts that quickly spread as a symbol of anger over his remarks.
The internet remains largely cut, de facto curfews persist in several cities, authorities continue to pressure families of slain protestors while security deployments deepen in hospitals and morgues.
The protests began on December 28 and have continued despite sweeping security measures, according to witnesses and reports gathered from multiple cities across the country.
NetBlocks, an internet monitoring group, said on Monday that Iran’s nationwide internet blackout had entered its 12th day, with international connectivity still minimal. Authorities appear to be testing a heavily filtered domestic intranet that intermittently allows limited messaging, NetBlocks said.
Iranian authorities have not publicly detailed the scope or duration of the restrictions, which activists say have severely limited communication, emergency services and independent verification of events.
Judiciary warns of swift punishment
On Monday, judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei described protesters as “rioters and troublemakers” and said cases linked to unrest would be handled rapidly.
“Swift and timely implementation of punishment, without delay, is one of the elements of deterrence,” Ejei said, according to state media, adding that no delay would be tolerated in pursuing protest-related cases.
Under Iranian law, some charges related to unrest – such as moharebeh (enmity against God) can carry severe penalties, including the death sentence.
Hospitals and morgues under pressure
Accounts received by Iran International suggest the crackdown has extended beyond the streets into hospitals, emergency care and the handling of bodies.
Witnesses in several cities said security forces entered hospitals, removed injured protesters and restricted treatment. One doctor in the northern city of Rasht told Iran International that security forces took wounded protesters from a hospital and transferred blood supplies to a military facility.
Similar reports from other cities described morgues filling rapidly and security forces maintaining a visible presence around medical centers.
Families of those killed said they faced pressure when seeking information about bodies or burial arrangements, including financial demands and restrictions on funerals.
Several accounts said ambulances failed to reach areas where shootings occurred, with some witnesses saying phone networks were down and emergency calls could not be placed.
Others said wounded protesters bled to death after taking shelter in nearby buildings because hospitals refused to admit them or because transport was unavailable.
Reports of lethal force and curfews
Witnesses described widespread use of live ammunition and pellet guns in cities including Karaj, Rasht, Shiraz and parts of Tehran province.
In Karaj, residents said security forces used tactical withdrawals to funnel large crowds into enclosed areas before opening fire. In Rasht, witnesses said protesters were trapped amid smoke and flames before being shot. No specific dates were mentioned in these accounts.
Reports from multiple cities indicated that informal curfews were in effect on Sunday, with armed patrols, checkpoints, phone searches and restrictions on nighttime movement. Residents said leaving homes after certain hours could lead to threats or detention.
Detentions and holding sites
Witnesses also reported large numbers of arrests, with some detainees held in non-prison facilities such as government buildings, camps or utility compounds.
In the northern city of Gorgan, one resident said dozens of bodies were temporarily held at a camp, while detainees were taken to a nearby prison quarantine area. Similar accounts from Qom and Isfahan described protesters being held in improvised locations.
Tight controls on burials
Accounts described families being warned to accept official narratives about the deaths of relatives or face delays in retrieving bodies. Some said burials were conducted at night with limits on attendance, while others described threats of unmarked or collective burials.
Witnesses also reported verbal abuse by security personnel at burial sites and forensic facilities.
International reaction
The protests have prompted demonstrations by Iranian communities abroad, including in Europe, Asia and Oceania with massive rallies held in the US, UK and Canada.
Several European countries have summoned Iranian ambassadors in recent weeks, while senior officials in Germany and other states have made unusually blunt statements criticizing Tehran’s handling of the unrest.
Iranian officials have repeatedly blamed foreign powers, including the United States and Israel, for the protests, accusations denied by Western governments.
With internet access still largely cut and independent journalists unable to operate freely, the full scale of the violence remains unclear.
Iran International continues to receive a high volume of consistent eyewitness accounts from across the country, but verification remains difficult due to the communications blackout and security restrictions.
For many Iranians, witnesses said, the combination of street violence, disrupted medical care and pressure on families has turned daily life into what they described as an atmosphere of fear and uncertainty more than three weeks after the protests began.
The report, based on information from a network of medical professionals across Iran, said the injuries included widespread gunshot wounds and severe eye trauma, with hundreds to thousands suffering permanent blindness.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei acknowledged for the first time on Saturday that “several thousands” had been killed since protests began three weeks ago, blaming the violence on protesters and foreign enemies.
The doctors’ report said most deaths occurred over two days during what it described as the most violent phase of the crackdown in the Islamic Republic’s 47-year history, with most victims believed to be under 30.
Professor Amir Parasta, an Iranian-German eye surgeon and medical director of Munich MED, told The Sunday Times the data was gathered through doctors communicating via smuggled Starlink satellite terminals after internet access was cut on January 8.
“This time they are using military-grade weapons,” Parasta was quoted as saying, adding that doctors were seeing gunshot and shrapnel wounds to the head, neck and chest. He said at least 700 to 1,000 people had lost an eye.
Figures compiled from eight major eye hospitals and 16 emergency departments cited in the report put the number of injured between 330,000 and 360,000. One Tehran eye hospital, Noor Clinic, documented around 7,000 eye injuries alone, according to the report.
An ophthalmologist quoted by The Sunday Times said the volume of pellet-related eye injuries had overwhelmed hospitals. Another witness cited said more than 800 eye removals were performed in a single night in Tehran.
Medical sources said some patients died due to blood shortages, with one surgeon quoted as saying security forces had at times prevented blood transfusions.
Witnesses who spoke to The Sunday Times described security forces firing live ammunition at protesters, including shots aimed at heads, and deploying snipers on rooftops. Accounts also described the use of Kalashnikov rifles and machineguns mounted on vehicles.
The report said many wounded protesters avoided hospitals out of fear of arrest, while some injured patients were allegedly taken from operating theatres by security forces.
Several witnesses said bodies were removed from streets by security forces and transferred to other cities, while families were pressured to pay large sums to retrieve remains.
Iranian authorities have repeatedly blamed the unrest on foreign powers, including the United States and Israel. In his address, Khamenei described protesters as “foot-soldiers of the United States” and claimed they were armed with weapons imported from abroad.
The protests began in late December over economic grievances and rapidly spread nationwide, intensifying after January 8 following a call to demonstrate by Reza Pahlavi, son of Iran’s late shah.
Despite the scale of reported casualties, the full extent of the violence remains unclear due to the ongoing communications blackout, now in its tenth day, and restrictions on independent reporting.
Human rights activists and medical professionals cited in the report warned that the true toll could be higher, saying many deaths and injuries have gone unrecorded amid fear, secrecy and the continued presence of security forces across Iranian cities.
