Biden Says Iran Talks Making Progress As China Reports Oil Imports

Speaking in a video conference with the World Economic Forum in Davos on Tuesday, Bennett questioned the purpose of the Vienna talks to revive Iran’s nuclear deal with the world, asking that “why it makes sense for the free world to sign a deal that would give them money, and at the same time allow them to continue”.

He described the Islamic Republic as an “octopus” of terror and instability with its head in Tehran and arms across the Middle East.

He said lifting Iran sanctions would empower Tehran’s proxies, bringing “terror on steroids… Everything we're seeing will be doubled and tripled because they'll be much stronger”.

Bennet added that Iran has an anti-Midas touch, meaning that “every country they get involved with fails”, mentioning Lebanon, Syria and Yemen as examples.

He referred to the Iranian nuclear archive that the Mossad smuggled into out, disclosed in 2018, as evidence saying that “these guys are trying to develop a nuclear weapon.”

“Why would anyone legitimize their right to enrich uranium at a massive capacity? They are now enriching at 60-percent grade, in these huge factories. Why are they doing it? You don’t need 60-percent [enriched] uranium for anything but a nuclear weapon”, Bennett said.

In a tweet Monday, Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia’s lead negotiator in Vienna, highlighted Russian support for Iran’s “absolutely right” demand for guarantees that the United States would not again leave the 2015 nuclear deal, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action).

US and European officials have told reporters that they have examined ideas to give Iran extra confidence − including letters of assurance from the US Treasury − over a revived JCPOA but have insisted that no US administration can bind its successors.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Ebrahim Raisi (Raeesi), who took office in August, are wary of being exposed politically at home should the US again leave the JCPOA, as it did under former president Donald Trump, a move that sent the Iranian economy into recession with ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions and undermined Iranian President Hassan Rouhani.

The conservative website Farhikhtegan Tuesday cited “informed sources” suggesting Rouhani’s negotiators, led by deputy foreign minister Abbas Araghchi, had made undue concessions in earlier rounds of the Vienna talks between April and June. Farhikhtegan suggested these included agreeing to limit uranium enrichment to 3.65 percent − which is clearly required under the JCPOA − and to remove more advanced centrifuges, over which there may be limited ambiguity.

While Raisi said during June’s presidential election campaign that he would support reviving the JCPOA if it were in “the people’s interests,” many of his supporters have opposed the agreement, and it would be important politically for Raisi to secure, or appear to secure, more favorable terms that Rouhani would have done.

Conservative media in Tehran and many parliament members have been lauding Russia, both in terms of its role in Vienna and as a trading partner. The English-language Tehran Times Tuesday described Russia as “a country that has always supported Iran in the face of brutal and unilateral sanctions on Iran” and which had “great potential to be Iran’s close ally in economic field.”

Turning point

The Tehran Times lauded Raisi’s visit to Moscow, which begins Wednesday, as “undoubtedly a turning point in relations between the two countries, as Russia and Iran are actively trying to expand economic relations.”

Similar sentiments came in an extensive interview published Monday by the official news agency IRNA with Mahmoud-Reza Sajjadi in which the former ambassador described closer banking cooperation between Tehran and Moscow as a suitable way to sidestep the threat of US sanctions that target any third party dealing with Iran’s financial sector.

While Iran has joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which encourages non-dollar trade among its nine members including Russia and China, Iran-Russia bilateral trade, while increasing, is yet to return to a 2010-11 high of $3.5 billion.

Critics of the Raisi administration argue that in current circumstances, any disproportionate tilt towards Russia, in politics or economics, would disadvantage Iran. Such critics point to the recent reported deal over the Chalous gasfield in the Caspian Sea and suggest that a proposed 20-year strategic agreement with Russia should not be agreed when Tehran is vulnerable due to US ‘maximum pressure.’

As Iran’s nuclear program continues beyond JCPOA limits, which it began breaching in 2019, many analysts suggest the Vienna talks are at a stage where political decisions cannot be avoided. European officials have told journalists that mid-February may be an effective cut-off, while both Iran and Russia have dismissed ‘artificial deadlines.’

"I advise the US Secretary of State [Anthony Blinken] to spare no effort to make [the US] Plan A work, because a Plan B is not attractive to anyone," foreign ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh told reporters at a weekly briefing with reporters Monday morning.

"He knows better than anyone that every country has its own Plan B, and ours may not appeal to them," he said when asked about Blinken's warning that the time left for salvaging the 2015 nuclear deal, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), is very short.

In an interview with NPR on Thursday, Blinken said the best thing for the US security and the security of its allies and partners in the region is getting back to the JCPOA “in the weeks ahead – not months ahead, weeks ahead.” Blinken warned that Iran is making nuclear advances that will become increasingly hard to reverse "because they’re learning things, they’re doing new things” without the constraints of the 2015 agreement to restrict its nuclear program.

Khatibzadeh’s warning about Iran’s Plan B sounded like a threat, as it is fast accumulating highly enriched uranium and approaching the point where it can have enough fissile material for a bomb.

Khatibzadeh stressed that Iran will not concede on matters important to it to reach a deal. "Had Iran surrendered its redlines, an agreement would result in the first six rounds [of the talks]. We will not forget our main [demands] and our redlines [just] to strike a deal."

The Iranian foreign ministry spokesman also said important disagreements remain, the most important of which is the other sides' slow momentum. On technical issues, considerable progress has been made, but on lifting sanctions we're waiting for political decisions yet to be made by the other side.

Over the weekend, experts continued discussing the four main drafts being worked on, Khatibzadeh said, insisting that many question marks have been lifted.

"Agreements have been made about ideas to a large extent and they are turning into words and sentences. But the issues that remain are key subjects that require certain political decisions, particularly by Washington. They have to announce their decisions about the remaining issues, especially the lifting of sanctions," he said. "Washington must make tough decisions on sanctions-removal and remaining issues. If this happens…we can move faster towards an agreement."

But the European Union envoy Enrique Mora, who is the coordinator of Vienna talks to revive Iran’s nuclear deal, said Sunday that the success of negotiations is still uncertain.

Mora made the remarks in a tweet on following a meeting of the working group on the removal of US sanctions on Tehran.

Referring to a letter by more than 100 US Republican lawmakers to President Joe Biden last week to immediately abandon the nuclear talks, which they called "fruitless" negotiations,” Khatibzadeh said US domestic policy has nothing to do with Iran, insisting that the Biden administration must adhere to the commitments the US made in 2015 nuclear deal.

The US lawmakers in their letter said further delay in withdrawal from the talks would only enable "Iran's malign activities, including their aggressive nuclear pursuit."

Mora made the remarks in a tweet on Sunday following a meeting of the working group on the removal of US sanctions on Tehran.

Saying that more meetings were scheduled for the day with experts from the participating sides, Mora emphasized that uncertainty about the result is “logical in such a complex negotiation”.

Mora also appreciated the commitment of the negotiating teams to reaching a final agreement.

Also on Sunday, Russia’s top negotiator Mikhail Ulyanov twitted about a meeting of the working group on implementation, which is set to coordinate the sequencing of steps on Iran’s nuclear activities and lifting of sanctions.

On Friday, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said it is “vital” that Vienna talks “succeed” because if negotiations continue with the current speed there will be nothing left to negotiate about.

He sounded less optimistic than EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell who said that a renewed deal with Iran is still "possible in the coming weeks” as the talks are advancing in a "better atmosphere".

Earlier on Friday, chief negotiators of Iran and the three European participants in the talks returned to their capitals to hold consultations and update their respective governments.

In a tweet Owji said on Saturday, “The honorable President of the Republic correctly pointed out” that oil exports have increased by 40 percent during his term. He added that in addition to selling more oil at higher prices, Iran is now able to recoup the money. Owji and other officials refrain from saying how much oil is exported and how much foreign currency the government receives. The information is considered state secret amid US sanctions.

Iran’s oil exports dropped to around 200,000 barrels per day in 2019 when the United States imposed full sanctions, revoking limited import waivers it had offered to some countries. But in late 2020, as former US President Donald Trump lost the election Tehran increased its sales through illicit channels. China is the biggest buyer, with shipments disguised as exports from other countries.

Independent industry sources have confirmed that Iran was exporting around 600,000 bpd in 2021, but whether the Raisi government has increased exports on top of that quantity is not clear. Apparently, he is trying to take credit for something that was already taking place before he assumed office.

But if there is a grain of truth in his claim, the question arises as to why China decided to increase its purchases from Iran when the hardliner president assumed office last August, and not earlier.

A similar development took place with Covid-19 vaccines last year, when former President Hassan Rouhani’s government was complaining that China was not delivering sufficient doses and Iran was seriously lagging in nationwide vaccinations.

The vaccine flow suddenly increased in August as Raisi assumed office and with tens of millions of doses supplied by China “the revolutionary government” was able to inoculate the majority of the population.

If Raisi’s claim that his government has increased oil exports by 40 percent is true, it would mean only one thing – Beijing has allowed more illicit imports of Iranian oil. The question then becomes if China is indirectly influencing Iran’s internal politics.

Another factor in China buying more Iranian oil since late 2020 is President Joe Biden’s decision to negotiate with Iran and revive the 2015 nuclear agreement that Trump abandoned in 2018. The US administration has not taken any visible action to clamp down on Iran’s additional oil exports to China amid negotiations in Vienna. This might have given Beijing the opening it needed to buy Iranian oil at a discount.

In December, the official government newspaper Iran Daily wrote that Tehran is offering such large discountsthat buyers are tempted to take the risk and circumvent US sanctions.

Another interesting point highlighted by both Raisi and Owji is that Tehran is able to receive the cash for its oil exports. Again, this can be just a claim to take credit and instill optimism in the beleaguered local market, or to show the Biden Administration that it is not in a dire economic situation.

Given US banking sanctions on Iran, receiving billions of dollars in foreign currency is highly unlikely, unless the US is looking the other way and money reaches Iranian bank accounts through intermediaries.

Companies and banks in the United Arab Emirates could be involved both in disguising illicit Iranian oil shipments and repatriating the money, possibly with substantial profits. In December US sent a delegation to the UAE to discuss tightening sanctions enforcementbut little information has emerged since then.