Blinken Tells Lavrov He Sees Only Brief Window To Reach Deal With Iran
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Friday he discussed Iran with his Russian counterpart, warning there was only a brief window to succeed in Vienna talks.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Friday he discussed Iran with his Russian counterpart, warning there was only a brief window to succeed in Vienna talks.
Blinken told reporters the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA) was an example of how Moscow and Washington can work together on security issues, urging Russia to use the influence it has and its relationship with Iran to impress upon Tehran the sense of urgency.
Blinken said there was still a window to return to the deal - which has unraveled since 2018 when then-US President Donald Trump abandoned it - but warned that Tehran's continuing nuclear advances would foil any return to the accord if a fresh pact was not reached in coming weeks.
"The talks with Iran about a mutual return to compliance with the JCPOA (2015 deal) have reached a decisive moment," Blinken said.
"If a deal is not reached in the next few weeks, Iran's ongoing nuclear advances will make it impossible to return to the JCPOA. But right now, there's still a window, a brief one, to bring those talks to a successful conclusion and address the remaining concerns of all sides."
The US and its European allies said on Thursday it was now just a matter of weeks to salvage the deal after the latest round of talks in which a French diplomatic source said there had been no progress on the core issues.
Report by Reuters
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken says nuclear talks with Iran are at a decisive moment but there is not much time left until Washington and its allies change tactics.
Blinken made the remarks in Berlin on Thursday after meeting senior diplomats from Germany, France, and Britain, stating that modest progress has been made during the ongoing round of talks in Vienna to revive the 2015 nuclear accord.
Blinken said, “We are indeed at a decisive moment, but we are not where we need to be. And if we don’t get there very soon, we will have to take a different course”.
"My own assessment, talking to all of our colleagues, is that returning to mutual compliance remains possible," he added, warning that "There is real urgency and it's really now a matter of weeks, where we determine whether or not we can return to mutual compliance with the agreement."
The United States has been warning since early December that time is running out and only weeks remain to reach a point where the JCPOA agreement would lose its utility as a non-proliferation instrument.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock echoed Blinken’s comments, saying, “Our objective is to maintain and to preserve the agreement and above all, to make Iran see sense and to ensure that Iran can no further increase its enrichment capacity”.
She underlined that “the window for finding a solution is closing. The negotiations are in a decisive phase. We need urgent, urgent progress, otherwise we will not be successful in reaching a joint accord."
Referring to Iran’s enrichment of uranium at 60-percent purity, Baerbock said that "there is no plausible explanation for this and Iran is not providing a plausible explanation for this".
French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian reiterated complaints about the "partial, timid and slow" progress in talks, saying that "the negotiations cannot go on so slowly".
President Joe Biden on Wednesday dismissed abandoning the talks and insisted there is some progress. “It’s not time to give up. There is some progress being made. The P5+1 is on the same page. But it remains to be seen,” he said.
Iran continues to enrich uranium at 60-percent purity and most analysts agree that it is shortening the time to having enough fissile material for a nuclear bomb. The US and its European allies have warned that with the kind of progress Iran is making, the Vienna talks can become meaningless if they drag on.
Iran’s president told the Russian Duma that the “resistance” of nations such as Iran and Russia has weakened the US and put its “strategy of domination” in disarray.
“The strategy of domination has now failed, and the America is in its weakest position,”President Ebrahim Raisi who is on an official visit to Moscow told the representatives of the Russian state Duma while emphasizing that "the desires for domination" persists and new forms of domination are on the agenda.
"The most important goal of this agenda is to weaken independent governments from within, which is pursued through economic sanctions, destabilization, the promotion of insecurity, and false narratives of events; in such a way that they try to change the place of the oppressor and the oppressed in public opinion," Raisi said.
The Iranian President also said the single "concept of resistance" brought about "failure of the policy of military occupation" and forced the US to flee Iraq and Afghanistan.
US forces are still in Iraq with a new mission of training Iraqi forces, instead of combat against the Islamic State group.
Raisi, who held a three-hour meeting with the Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday, in his address to the Duma accused Western powers of forging complex plans "to send Takfiri terrorists on new missions" from the Caucasus to Central Asia.
Iranian officials use 'takfiri' to refer to Sunni fundamentalism and as a vague umbrella term to refer to Sunni dissident groups and individuals inside Iran. "Experience has shown that it is pure Islamic thought that can prevent the formation of extremism and Takfiri terrorism," Raisi said.
In a clear show of support to Russia, he also alleged that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is also trying to infiltrate various geographical areas under new guises. "Promoting pro-Western governments and confronting independent democracies based on national identities and traditions is part of NATO's cultural projects that reflect the hypocrisy of this diminishing pattern of behavior."
Calling sanctions "a common form of new domination", he said countering them requires a collective response from “independent nations”.
The US has threatened Russia with more sanctions if it attacks Ukraine amid a serious crisis triggered by large Russian troop concentrations on the Ukrainian border.
On the nuclear issue and the ongoing Vienna talks to restore the 2015 nuclear deal, Raisi said the Islamic Republic will never relinquish its rights but reiterated that Tehran is serious about reaching an agreement, "if the other parties are serious about lifting the sanctions effectively and operationally."
Russia is a signatory to the deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and in recent weeks has played a proactive role in the Vienna talks as a mediator between Iran and the United States which is only indirectly involved in the talks.
Calling the model of cooperation between Tehran and Moscow in Syria successful, Raisi said resistance of the Syrian people and government this has ensured the consolidation of regional security. The Iranian and Russian military interventions in Syria has killed tens of thousands of civilians.
Referring to economic relations between Tehran and Moscow, Raisi said boosting ties will strengthen the economies of both nations and regional and international security. The signing of a 20-year agreement during his Moscow trip has not materialized.
The annual volume of trade between the countries currently stands at around $3 billion. Tehran says it intends to increase it to $25 billion.
As President Joe Biden said Wednesday that there is some progress in Iran nuclear talks, China officially reported buying oil from Tehran, despite US sanctions.
In a press conference, Biden spoke two sentences about the Iran negotiations, but what he said was that it is not time to stop the nuclear talks, which are making “some progress.”
US officials have been saying for weeks that the multilateral negotiations in Vienna to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement, JCPOA, cannot go on forever and should reach a resolution in a matter of “weeks, not months.” But the Biden Administration has not put a clear deadline on when it would decide if the talks were productive.
Iran continues to enrich uranium at 60-percent purity and most analysts agree that it is shortening the time to having enough fissile material for a nuclear bomb. The US and its European allies have warned that with the kind of progress Iran is making the Vienna talks can become meaningless if they drag on.
“It’s not time to give up. There is some progress being made. The P5+1 is on the same page. But it remains to be seen,” was all Biden said during the press conference.
While the US President was saying that the P5, meaning permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, “is on the same page”, data released by China showed for the first time in a year that Beijing is officially importing Iranian oil in violation of US sanctions.
Reuters reported that China imported 260,312 tons of Iranian crude oil in December, according to data from the General Administration of Chinese Customs, which last recorded Iranian oil inflows in December 2020 at 520,000 tons.
Energy monitoring firms were reporting throughout 2021 that China was importing large quantities of Iranian oil indirectly, through third countries without registering the cargos as having originated in Iran. But now Beijing is officially disclosing its imports. The question is if the Biden Administration will respond in some way or prefer to have China’s support in the nuclear talks.
On the other hand, Iran has been boasting lately that it is defeating the sanctions, selling much more oil than in 2019-2020, implying that it does need to make concession at the Vienna talks. So China’s increased volume imports of Iranian oil and its official admission in customs data provides diplomatic leverage to Tehran.
Estimates are that oil exports have topped 600,000 barrels per day in 2021 compared with around 200,000 in 2019 and the first nine months of 2020. Imports from Iran have accounted for about 6% of China's crude oil imports, according to shipping data and trader estimates.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Wednesday argued that the Administration cannot provide guarantees to Tehran that the United States will never pull out of the nuclear deal, like former president Donald trump did in 2018.
“In our system you can’t give that kind of quick and serious guarantee. President Biden can certainly say what he will or won’t do as president as long as Iran remains committed to the deal, but we can’t bind future presidents. And that’s one of the things we’re talking about,” he said referring to the Vienna negotiations.
The Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennet has warned that the Islamic Republic intends to build nuclear weapons, and poses grave danger to the Middle East.
Speaking in a video conference with the World Economic Forum in Davos on Tuesday, Bennett questioned the purpose of the Vienna talks to revive Iran’s nuclear deal with the world, asking that “why it makes sense for the free world to sign a deal that would give them money, and at the same time allow them to continue”.
He described the Islamic Republic as an “octopus” of terror and instability with its head in Tehran and arms across the Middle East.
He said lifting Iran sanctions would empower Tehran’s proxies, bringing “terror on steroids… Everything we're seeing will be doubled and tripled because they'll be much stronger”.
Bennet added that Iran has an anti-Midas touch, meaning that “every country they get involved with fails”, mentioning Lebanon, Syria and Yemen as examples.
He referred to the Iranian nuclear archive that the Mossad smuggled into out, disclosed in 2018, as evidence saying that “these guys are trying to develop a nuclear weapon.”
“Why would anyone legitimize their right to enrich uranium at a massive capacity? They are now enriching at 60-percent grade, in these huge factories. Why are they doing it? You don’t need 60-percent [enriched] uranium for anything but a nuclear weapon”, Bennett said.
With Vienna nuclear talks at a crucial stage, Iran’s relations with Russia are both central to the talks and a pillar of Tehran’s likely strategy should talks fail.
In a tweet Monday, Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia’s lead negotiator in Vienna, highlighted Russian support for Iran’s “absolutely right” demand for guarantees that the United States would not again leave the 2015 nuclear deal, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action).
US and European officials have told reporters that they have examined ideas to give Iran extra confidence − including letters of assurance from the US Treasury − over a revived JCPOA but have insisted that no US administration can bind its successors.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Ebrahim Raisi (Raeesi), who took office in August, are wary of being exposed politically at home should the US again leave the JCPOA, as it did under former president Donald Trump, a move that sent the Iranian economy into recession with ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions and undermined Iranian President Hassan Rouhani.
The conservative website Farhikhtegan Tuesday cited “informed sources” suggesting Rouhani’s negotiators, led by deputy foreign minister Abbas Araghchi, had made undue concessions in earlier rounds of the Vienna talks between April and June. Farhikhtegan suggested these included agreeing to limit uranium enrichment to 3.65 percent − which is clearly required under the JCPOA − and to remove more advanced centrifuges, over which there may be limited ambiguity.
While Raisi said during June’s presidential election campaign that he would support reviving the JCPOA if it were in “the people’s interests,” many of his supporters have opposed the agreement, and it would be important politically for Raisi to secure, or appear to secure, more favorable terms that Rouhani would have done.
Conservative media in Tehran and many parliament members have been lauding Russia, both in terms of its role in Vienna and as a trading partner. The English-language Tehran Times Tuesday described Russia as “a country that has always supported Iran in the face of brutal and unilateral sanctions on Iran” and which had “great potential to be Iran’s close ally in economic field.”
Turning point
The Tehran Times lauded Raisi’s visit to Moscow, which begins Wednesday, as “undoubtedly a turning point in relations between the two countries, as Russia and Iran are actively trying to expand economic relations.”
Similar sentiments came in an extensive interview published Monday by the official news agency IRNA with Mahmoud-Reza Sajjadi in which the former ambassador described closer banking cooperation between Tehran and Moscow as a suitable way to sidestep the threat of US sanctions that target any third party dealing with Iran’s financial sector.
While Iran has joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which encourages non-dollar trade among its nine members including Russia and China, Iran-Russia bilateral trade, while increasing, is yet to return to a 2010-11 high of $3.5 billion.
Critics of the Raisi administration argue that in current circumstances, any disproportionate tilt towards Russia, in politics or economics, would disadvantage Iran. Such critics point to the recent reported deal over the Chalous gasfield in the Caspian Sea and suggest that a proposed 20-year strategic agreement with Russia should not be agreed when Tehran is vulnerable due to US ‘maximum pressure.’
As Iran’s nuclear program continues beyond JCPOA limits, which it began breaching in 2019, many analysts suggest the Vienna talks are at a stage where political decisions cannot be avoided. European officials have told journalists that mid-February may be an effective cut-off, while both Iran and Russia have dismissed ‘artificial deadlines.’