Iran's ‘Moderates’ Planning A Political Comeback?
Two reformist newspapers in Iran have reported that a new “reformist” alliance is growing among politicians opposed to hardliners in charge of the government.
Two reformist newspapers in Iran have reported that a new “reformist” alliance is growing among politicians opposed to hardliners in charge of the government.
Both newspapers used the term "reformist" in a broad sense that covers moderate conservatives such as former President Hassan Rouhani and former Majles Speaker Ali Larijani.
The two reports published on the same day as frontpage stories can be a coincidence or intended to tell the public that the move is a serious coordinated attempt by the right-of-center politicians.
Aftab-e Yazd, a left-of-center newspaper, quoted reformist figures as saying that politicians including Rouhani, Larijani, former president Mohammad Khatami, former deputy Majles speaker Mohammad Javad Bahonar, Ayatollah Khomeini's grandson Hassan Khomeini, and former Majles Speaker and presidential candidate Ali Akbar Nategh-Nouri have been meeting regularly to forge a block against the ruling ultra-conservatives.
The daily quoted political activists as having said that the group is planning to form a shadow government by lending a new momentum to its political moves.
Early signs of a political move in the offing emerged in mid-January when reports said that the two former presidents had held a meeting with some of the same figures, who have been marginalized by supporters of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Some of those taking part in these meetings, including, Rouhani, Larijani, and Nategh-Nouri are however best characterized as moderate conservatives, Aftab Yazd reminded, adding that there will be more of these meetings in the coming months.
Sharq daily, which reported the same development, added former Vice President Es'haq Jahangiri to the list, giving more weight to the Executives of Construction Party. Sharq quoted a member of the same party, Alizadeh Tabatabai as saying that the group plans to revive the embattled ‘republican’ attribute of the Islamic Republic which has been badly damaged because of the Guardian Council's meddling with the process of elections, particularly in the June 2021 presidential vote, when many complained that the election election was clear months before voting took place.
Tabatabai added that it is in the nature of political parties to form a shadow government in a bid to facilitate their return to power. The lawyer's comment is contrary to what happened in 2020 and 2021 when the Guardian Council barred nearly all reformist candidates from running for the parliament or presidency. At that time, reformist parties effectively distanced themselves from the elections to highlight the discrimination against them.
Others told Sharq and Aftab Yazd that ‘moderates’ are planning to unseat the current predominantly ultra-conservative government through democratic process and make a political comeback in the next parliamentary and presidential elections.
Aftab Yazd argued that every one of these political figures have had an influential role in the Islamic Republic at one time or another. This of course does not apply to Khomeini's grandson who has never had a political role and never competed in any election to assess his political weight.
Reformist activist Jalal Jalalizadeh told Aftab Yazd: "After 43 years, reformist figures have realized their mistakes and now they are getting together to make up for those mistakes. This will be useless if it is only a political gesture. But their move would be welcomed if they plan to stop the revolution's deviation and encourage the current government to solve the country's problems."
Sharq apparently doubts the effectiveness of a shadow government as it has concluded its report by pointing out that: "We must see how far such a shadow government can further the frontiers of criticism and questioning [of the current government's policies]."
Parliament (Majles) Research Center has attested that 90 percent of the government's budget for all media will go to the state television IRIB (the Islamic Republic Broadcasting Organization) next year.
In a rare development the parliamentary institution has called for reducing IRIB's budget and urged the national broadcaster to return to the treasury some of its hefty advertising revenues, as its audience is declining. The Parliament is dominated by conservatives and supporters of Supreme Leader Khamenei, but it is making demands from an institution controlled by him.
According to the research center, IRIB has annual advertising revenues of nearly 140 trillion rials ($560 million). This is apart from its share of the government budget, which is equal to the annual payroll taxes of all government employees.
IRIB will receive 50 trillion rials ($200 million) from the government budget, which is 42 percent higher than last year. But this is not all that IRIB gets. Khamenei whose office directly supervises IRIB's operations and appoints its chairman, gives hard currency from the country's foreign currency reserves to the IRIB. The media conglomerate also benefits from advertising revenues and refuses to send the money back to the treasury according to law, according to media reports including one written by Homa Hosseini for Rouydad24 website.
The report by parliament’s research arm is an odd event in which one hardliner organization calls for the reduction of the budget of another hardliner organization. But ever-growing funds allocated to the IRIB and religious organizations including seminaries during the past two years have been so controversial that even the country's hardliners and staunch supporters of the regime could not ignore them.
It has been revealed during the past two years that parts of the seminary such as the Al-Mustafa School which trains young clerics from foreign countries receives the lion's share of Iran's cultural budget. Other religious organizations receiving big budgets from the government include the headquarters for prayers, which coordinates what prayer Imams should say every week to promote the "values" advocated by Khamenei. The Islamic Propagation organization, which promotes the party line using the medium of art, and the high council of seminaries are other beneficiaries. Increasing these organizations' budget led to protests on social media.
According to an Iran International TV report, funds allocated to some of these organizations have had a growth over 126% in the next year's budget. This includes over two trillion rials allocated to the Islamic Propagation office in Qom which mainly publishes anti-US posters and pamphlets to promote the slogans of the Supreme Leader and other clerics in the system.
On the other hand, the IRIB is so unpopular among viewers that when the state TV was hacked twice during the past week, no one would have noticed it if the hackers did not talk to the media after the event, some Iranian social media users joked.
Next year, the IRIB will get over 25 trillion rials ($100 million) for creating animated cartoons such as those it produced to demonize the United States after IRGC Qods Force Commander Qasem Soleimani was killed in early 2020.
The Majles research center noted that the nature of IRIB’s advertising, which is mainly about food, causes dissent in the society when most viewers' purchasing power has sharply declined because of the current economic crisis and food price hikes topping 60 percent.