Resurfaced Rumors Stoke Concerns In Iran Over China Pact

Reformist cleric Mohammad Taqi Fazel Maybodi told the media that Iranian conservatives plan to make constitutional changes that would further undermine citizens’ rights and the nature of the regime as a Republic.

Conservative politician Mohammad-Reza Bahonar suggested earlier this month that constitutional changes that at face value sounded like an attempt for more opening in the political system, allowing the formation of political parties. But debates following his statement revealed that he and others were thinking of doing away with the presidency.

Speaking in an interview with ILNA, Maybodi said some conservatives have been dreaming about limiting the people's rights and undermining the nature of Iran's political system as a republic by giving more powers to the conservative-dominated Guardian Council.

Maybodi made thecomment about a conservative plot against the republic while several moderate and reformist figures have also supported Bahonar's idea during the past week in the hope of lending legitimacy to the regime and facilitating political participation by a wider range of politicians from across Iran's political spectrum.

Although Bahonar's idea might be a genuine demand for change to end the political impasse created by the total takeover of political institutions by hardline conservatives, it could also be an idea coming from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s inner circle to save a regime that has lost the people's trust.

Maybodi called Bahonar's idea of constitutional changes a paradoxical plan that could lead to further losses for the people rather than bringing about political benefits for them. Maybodi believes that Khamenei would hand over any constitutional change to the conservative Guardian Council and the Assembly of Experts.

He said the plan to do away with the presidency and replacing it with a parliamentary system with a prime minister from within the Majles will further undermine the nature of the regime. A prime minister will be appointed by parliament, not directly elected by the people. The situation will become even worse if the non-elected Guardian Council interferes in the selection of a prime minister, as it does with all parliamentary decisions.

Maybodi's solution is to preserve the current presidential system and to have a prime minister appointed by the president. He said that deciding to make the changes under the all-conservative regime rather than under the moderate administration of Former President Hassan Rouhani makes the idea dodgier.

Meanwhile, former lawmaker Hossein Kanani Moghaddam said in an interview with Khabar Online website that hardline conservatives who have taken over all government institutions, now want to create the infrastructure for a despotic regime. They "are planning to establish an all-conservative totalitarian ruling system. This might prove successful for some time, but as soon as they need to refer to the people's vote for any matter, they might be let down by the public," he said.

However, he argued that both conservatives and reformists have failed to stand by the promises they made to the people during elections as soon as they were put in office.

Moghaddam said that the constitutional changes recently suggested by conservatives could have some advantages, but it is more likely to bring about a despotic dictatorship and this contradicts the spirit of the Constitution. He warned the conservatives that with pursuing such plans they might end up in the museum of history.

With an overall score of 42 out of 100, Iran ranked the lowest among 14 Middle Eastern countries included in the survey of the economic freedom report, which is an authoritative comparative source on the subject. The latest report is the 28th annual edition.

Turkey, with a score of 57 is 107th in the world, while Saudi Arabia with 55.5 is 118th. The United Arab Emirates has a high score of 70 and ranks 33rd in the world.

The index measures economic freedom based on 12 quantitative and qualitative factors grouped into four categories: Rule of law, Government size, Regulatory efficiency and Open Markets.

The report says that over the past five years, Iran has experienced just 1.2 percent average annual growth, accompanied by declining economic freedom.

“Sinking under the weight of sharp drops in scores for fiscal health and business freedom, Iran has recorded an 8.1-point overall loss of economic freedom since 2017 and has fallen further in the “Repressed” category,” the report says.

From the 12 indicators in the index, Iran has regressed in 10 of them. Only taxation and government spending “do not weigh heavily on the economy.”

United States sanctions imposed since 2018 have had a serious impact on Iran’s economy, however, many indicators of economic freedom are factors related to domestic governance and the political and economic system of the ruling Islamic Republic.

“Iran’s economy, one of the Middle East’s most advanced before 1979, has been undermined since then by mismanagement, international sanctions, and pervasive graft under a repressive Islamic government dominated by Shiite religious authorities,” the report states, providing examples of peculiarities that undermine the economy.

The corruptive economic role of the Revolutionary Guard, IRGC, is one of the most prominent aspects of the state-managed economy. The ‘rule of law’ general category of factors is significantly impacted by the military’s role and lack of independence for the judiciary.

“Iranians have the legal right to own property and establish private businesses, but powerful institutions such as the Revolutionary Guard limit fair competition and entrepreneurial opportunities. The judicial system is not independent of the supreme leader,” the report summarizes.

In the broad category of ‘regulatory efficiency’ the study shows that, “The bloated state-owned sector and companies controlled by Iranian security forces put private business owners at a disadvantage.”

Iran has regressed in government integrity, fiscal health, business and labor freedom and has historically scored very low (just 5 points out of 100) in investment freedom. This is a particular issue that brings forth a debate about the impact of international sanctions. While it is easy to see that international restrictions can hurt foreign investments, Iran’s political and economic system has generally been inhospitable for all kinds of investments, and this has played a major role in keeping growth at anemic levels for four decades.

The reason for the lack of investment-friendly policies is nepotism, graft, and the military’s large stake in the economy. A more open economic system will lead to more competition, which is incompatible with the vested interests of regime insiders.

The same factors have prevented the country from joining international conventions on financial transparency, anti-money-laundering regulations and a ban on financing terrorism. Since 2017, the regime has refused to adopt legal reforms required by the Financial Action Task Force, an international watchdog. As a result, even if US sanctions are lifted, Iran’s global banking ties will remain severely restricted.

The ruling system, instead of relying more on an open economy and investments, has depended on income from oil exports and the consequent vulnerability to international sanctions.

Mohsen Jalilvand has said in an interview with Aftab News website that Iran might fall victim to the Ukrainian developments and stressed that the only way to prevent this is holding direct talks with the United States rather than counting on Russia as a mediator between Tehran and Washington. Meanwhile, Jalilvand warned that Russia might take advantage of the situation.

The commentator agreed with Aftab News that a Russian attack on Ukraine seems to be inevitable and such an attack can leave a destructive impact on the Islamic Republic's diplomacy in Vienna. He said that Belarus, China and Iran support Russia in the conflict with Ukraine.

Jalilvand said that a war in Ukraine will lead to the total collapse of the negotiations in Vienna. He added that Russia might also use the Iran card in Vienna adding that "Russia might sell Iran out for concessions."

Meanwhile, Foreign Policy Commentator and former diplomat Kourosh Ahmadi said in an interview with Entekhab news website that the United States might soften its position in the Vienna negotiations to have more time to focus on the possibility of a Russian attack on Ukraine.

But he disagreed with Jalilvand on how far a Russian attack can impede talks in Vienna. He said the impact of the Ukrainian crisis on the nuclear negotiations is likely to be minimal and lead to minor disruptions and delays. He added that both the United States and Russia have said before that they have shared interests in the revival of the JCPOA.

Ahmadi reminded that the 2014 occupation of the Crimea took place in the middle of Iran's nuclear negotiations with the P5+1. But the overall impact on the negotiations was minimal. "Whatever Moscow's position, it cannot have a determining impact on the nuclear talks.," Ahmadi said.

Ahmadi said that it is unlikely that the Ukrainian crisis would lead to an all-out classic war. "It is more likely to be a limited operation like what happened in 2014, and not like the occupation of Afghanistan in 1979," he said.

Furthermore, he doubted that Iran would openly support such an attack, reminding that Tehran has not endorsed the 2014 Russian occupation of the Crimea.

He added that "if Iran and America have the political will to come to an agreement, other JCPOA member states can only be facilitators. Otherwise, they will be marginalized. On the other hand, Russia cannot afford not to be part of a possible agreement in Vienna." Ahmadi added that during the past three months Russia has always tried to moderate Iran's positions in Vienna.

In another development, reformist website Zeitoon quoted the former head of the Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Relations committee Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh as saying that the Russians are using Iran as a “barrier” in their confrontation with the West over Ukraine.

Falahatpisheh said: "Based on its interests, Russia is using Iran as a barrier in its confrontation with the United States. Moscow is likely to sell the JCPOA for Ukraine. However, Iranian officials wrongly believe that China and Russia are Iran's strategic allies. This comes while strategic alliance does not mean anything in today's world."

The fracas arose after the embassy’s posted February 10 a photo of the Russian ambassador, Levan Dzhagaryan, laying a wreath at the foot of a monument to Alexander Griboyedov inside the embassy compound on Diplomats Day.

The social-media posts expressed outrage because of Griboyedov’s role in the 1828 Torkmanchay Treaty, ending the Russo-Persian War (1826-1828) and under which the Persian Empire ceding areas in the south Caucasus to the Russian Empire. Griboyedov was killed by a mob in Tehran in 1929 after being appointed Russia's ambassador.

In recent months anti-Russian sentiments have been quite high in Iran. Many Iranians interpreted the embassy's recent post as a reminder of Iranians' “humiliation” by Tsarist Russia, as some criticized its coincidence with the Islamic Revolution's anniversary, and others saying it amounted to a threat.

Foreign ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said Monday that while the ministry had registered a protest, Tehran and Moscow had "excellent relations."

"Any prominent diplomat and seasoned ambassador knows that he must not do things that hurt the feeling of the people of his host country,” the spokesman said. “These matters have obviously been relayed [to Moscow] through the appropriate channel and will be relayed in the future.”

Lingering in history

"We should learn from history but not linger in it,” assistant foreign minister Raoul Mousavi wrote Tuesday. “Lingering in history does not benefit relations between nations.” Mousavi shared a photo showing damage to the minaret of Imam Reza Shrine in Mashhad from Russian artillery shells in 1912, part of the instability that led the Cossack-trained Reza Khan seizing power in 1921 and proclaiming himself Shah.

Former Iranian diplomat Kourosh Ahmadi in a Telegram post quoted by Hamshahri newspaper argued that while killing Griboyedov was unjustifiable, the ambassador had treated the Iranian government, royalty, and people with disrespect in enforcing the Torkmanchay treaty, a staple of Iranian school text-books. "It's very strange for an ambassador to honor a person with such [unfavorable] background in the country where he is posted and even to publicize it there," Ahmadi wrote.

The Russian embassy has explained that the wreath-laying ceremony is held annually as part of Diplomats Day and was unconnected to any commemoration of the 1979 Revolution. "We consider these publications provocative and aimed at undermining friendly and cordial relations between Russia and Iran,” the embassy said. “The Russian Embassy will respond firmly in the same way to such fake insinuations in the future.”

The Russian embassy suggested in a series of tweets on February 11 that Iran International TV, the United States-funded Radio Farda, and BBC Persian had all blown up social media comments.

Ramazan Sharif was commenting on a story and a 50-minute recording published by the United States-funded Radio Farda based on an audio recording of a conversation in 2018 between former Guards (IRGC) commander Mohammad-Ali Jafari and his Economic Affairs Deputy Sadegh Zolghadr.

Sharif said that the case cited in the recording had been dealt with, presumably referring to the judiciary announcing last year that four defendants had been sentenced to two to 30 years in prison over embezzlement in the case. Human-rights campaigner Emadeddin Baghi has pointed out that the tape had been published on a Telegram channel two years ago. At the time it went unnoticed by media and then the channel closed down and the recording disappeared.

In the audio file, Jafari tells Zolghadr that Soleimani, who was killed by a United States drone attack in Baghdad in 2020, knew about 80,000 billion rials (around $3 billion at the time) held by Tehran municipality and Yas Holding, a firm controlled by the IRGC's Cooperatives Foundation, and had also been aware of corruption allegations before any public indictment and trials.

The tape even reveals that Soleimani was upset about the action taken by Jafari and Zolghadr against those who had embezzled the money and spoke to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei about it.

The funds had been due to reach the Qods (Quds) Force, the IRGC extraterritorial arm, which Soleimani commanded. In the recording, Zolghadr says that Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, had ordered 90 percent of the money, earned by Yas Holding, to be used to finance the Qods Force with the remainder going to the IRGC for general needs.

In a note Monday, Hossein Shariatmadari, chief editor of the flagship hardliner Kayhan daily, defended Soleimani and others – including Tehran mayor Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and the head of IRGC intelligence Hossein Taeb – mentioned in the recording. Most other hardliner media such as the IRGC-linked Javan newspaper are still completely silent about the highly controversial contents of the audio recording but in a note Monday

‘Cleverly lured’

"It was said that the Qods Force was supposed to have a share of the revenues of the said firm,” he noted. “What is wrong or dirty about this?" He claimed the IRGC and judiciary had shown their integrity by prosecuting corrupt individuals.

Shariatmadari also defended Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Tehran mayor at the time, saying he had "cleverly lured" his ex-deputy, Isa Sharif, back to Iran from Canada so he could be prosecuted.

Mahmoud Abbaszadeh Meshkini, spokesman for parliament’s national security committee, Saturday detected “psychological war” in Radio Farda’s publication of the recording. “The ill-wishers have failed to achieve what they sought and use as an excuse to tarnish the IRGC’s image.”

But critics of the Islamic Republic, and specially the economic and political power held by the IRGC were quick to show the recording as proof of deep corruption, that Soleimani and other senior figures were aware of.

The problem for the regime is that in its infinite lack of transparency, once such a scandal reveals itself, all officials involved fall under suspicion. There is no proof in the recording that Soleimani personally benefitted from the corruption, but critics have a right to question everyone's role, since there is no free media in the country or independent courts to investigate the matter.

Former reformist interior minister Mostafa Tajzadeh tweeted Saturday that the case showed a conflict of interest within the military and political establishment. "Can you see the outcome of putting weapons, intelligence, money, and media [in the same hands]?” he wrote. “Is this anything other than the military's control over diplomacy and economy? Is there anyone to hold to account? Is there anyone who dares to prosecute?"