Influential Iran Politician Asks Khamenei For Constitutional Change

Raisi made the decision during a session of the Covid-19 taskforce on Saturday while 120 cities are now considered "red zones”.

Instead, he proposed that the definition of the red zones should be changed in a way that the number of 'red' cities decreases.

Raisi said the country should not go into lockdown as was the case during the previous waves and restrictions should be regional and local.

Etekaf (from the Arabic for ‘adhering to’) ceremonies, scheduled this year for February 15-18, during which large numbers pray in mosques throughout day and night, were cancelled in the cities deemed red zones.

The government hasn’t announced restrictions on the Fajr film and theater festivals, and its plans remain in force to re-open schools and to hold gatherings during the ten-day Fajr period that ends on the anniversary of the 1979 Revolution on February 11.

This would not the first time the Islamic Republic seems to prioritize official events over the health and safety of people. There were media allegations that authorities played down the threat from Covid in early 2020 so as not to deter voting in the February 2020 parliamentary elections.

Health authorities, who have said the country is in a sixth wave of the pandemic, expect infections to rise to “up to”

On Friday, Iran's Police Chief Brigadier General Hossein Ashtari called on the parliament, the judiciary, and the ministry of justice for amendments to current laws.

Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf promised to consider it immediately and ordered a draft of amendments to be prepared.

The move to ease the use of firearms by police was prompted after a police officer was killed by knife stabs on his neck and body in a confrontation with a criminal in Fars province on Wednesday.

According to current law, police can use firearms in at least 10 situations, including for self-defense or defense of others. In such cases, officers should give verbal warnings before firing warning shot. Then they can shoot at the lower body, and if necessary, shoot at the upper body.

It is not clear which part of the law will be amended but many fear that it is can be used to let police use guns whenever they want, especially during protests that have been frequently taking place in Iran.

In the past, the government has shot protesters labeling them ‘thugs and criminals.’

In October 2021, the UN Special Rapporteur for Iran said that police often use lethal force against protesters and international human rights organizations have accused Iran of killing hundreds of protesters since late 2017, using military ammunition.

In a detailed article on Friday, IRNA again raised the issue of subsidies, this time the cheap energy the Islamic Republic has been providing to businesses and individuals for more than 40 years, costing the government hundreds of billions of dollars.

The ultra-conservative government of President Ebrahim Raisi that assumed power last August has been hammering on the issues of food and fuel subsidies amid United States sanctions that have drained its coffers. His administration is in a position to raise the issue, since ultra-conservatives are in full control of both the executive and the parliament, without fear of any organized opposition.

IRNA says that in total Iran paid almost $30 in indirect energy subsidies in 2020, as it sold gasoline, diesel, electricity and natural gas eight times cheaper to its people than minimum prices in the Persian Gulf region, which already has low prices.

The result was that compared to world total of $181 billion in energy subsidies, Iran was the biggest single provider with more than 16 percent of the world total. If we look at the breakdown, the government offered indirect subsidies of $5 billion in oil products, $12.5 billion in electricity and $12.2 billion in natural gas.

Iran’s share of global natural gas subsidies is 33 percent and for gasoline 35 percent.

A gallon of gasoline is sold to people for a little over 20 US cents, while in the Persian Gulf region bulk gasoline prices are over two dollars a gallon.

No one really can say why the government has kept selling energy so cheaply for the last 33 years, after wartime emergency ended when the Iraq-Iran eight-year conflict came to a close in 1988. The revolutionary Islamic government that came to power in 1979 promised free electricity and water to the population and then war broke out in 1980, which forced the new regime to guarantee the essential amount of food and necessities to a shell-shocked population.

After the war, as a new government somewhat liberalized the economy, no one seriously dealt with the problem of energy subsidies, although some occasionally raised the issue. But overtime the low rate for electricity and gas resulted in extremely high usage by consumers, to the extent that Iranian households have one the highest rates of gas consumption in the world.

Iran is third after Russia and the United States in per capita gas consumption, to the extent that as the holder of the second largest gas reserves in the world it is barely able to satisfy domestic consumption, with little left for export to Iraq and Turkey.

Still, the $30 billion spent to provide cheap energy cited by the government would be much higher if the Iranian currency had not lost its value eightfold since 2017. The subsidy amount converted into dollars is much less than the $45 billion mentioned a few years ago as annual energy subsidy cost. In 40 years, the total for energy subsidies would be more than one trillion dollars, a huge amount for a country that has lagged in investments into its oil and gas sector.

Although the Raisi administration seems to be more than willing to reduce subsidies, the regime as a whole is not ready for the possible political risks involved. In November 2019 when the government raised gasoline prices, unrest engulfed the country and ended with hundreds dead as security forces used military weapons to fire on protesters.

Both newspapers used the term "reformist" in a broad sense that covers moderate conservatives such as former President Hassan Rouhani and former Majles Speaker Ali Larijani.

The two reports published on the same day as frontpage stories can be a coincidence or intended to tell the public that the move is a serious coordinated attempt by the right-of-center politicians.

Aftab-e Yazd, a left-of-center newspaper, quoted reformist figures as saying that politicians including Rouhani, Larijani, former president Mohammad Khatami, former deputy Majles speaker Mohammad Javad Bahonar, Ayatollah Khomeini's grandson Hassan Khomeini, and former Majles Speaker and presidential candidate Ali Akbar Nategh-Nouri have been meeting regularly to forge a block against the ruling ultra-conservatives.

The daily quoted political activists as having said that the group is planning to form a shadow government by lending a new momentum to its political moves.

Early signs of a political move in the offing emerged in mid-January when reports said that the two former presidents had held a meeting with some of the same figures, who have been marginalized by supporters of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Some of those taking part in these meetings, including, Rouhani, Larijani, and Nategh-Nouri are however best characterized as moderate conservatives, Aftab Yazd reminded, adding that there will be more of these meetings in the coming months.

Sharq daily, which reported the same development, added former Vice President Es'haq Jahangiri to the list, giving more weight to the Executives of Construction Party. Sharq quoted a member of the same party, Alizadeh Tabatabai as saying that the group plans to revive the embattled ‘republican’ attribute of the Islamic Republic which has been badly damaged because of the Guardian Council's meddling with the process of elections, particularly in the June 2021 presidential vote, when many complained that the election election was clear months before voting took place.

Tabatabai added that it is in the nature of political parties to form a shadow government in a bid to facilitate their return to power. The lawyer's comment is contrary to what happened in 2020 and 2021 when the Guardian Council barred nearly all reformist candidates from running for the parliament or presidency. At that time, reformist parties effectively distanced themselves from the elections to highlight the discrimination against them.

Others told Sharq and Aftab Yazd that ‘moderates’ are planning to unseat the current predominantly ultra-conservative government through democratic process and make a political comeback in the next parliamentary and presidential elections.

Aftab Yazd argued that every one of these political figures have had an influential role in the Islamic Republic at one time or another. This of course does not apply to Khomeini's grandson who has never had a political role and never competed in any election to assess his political weight.

Reformist activist Jalal Jalalizadeh told Aftab Yazd: "After 43 years, reformist figures have realized their mistakes and now they are getting together to make up for those mistakes. This will be useless if it is only a political gesture. But their move would be welcomed if they plan to stop the revolution's deviation and encourage the current government to solve the country's problems."

Sharq apparently doubts the effectiveness of a shadow government as it has concluded its report by pointing out that: "We must see how far such a shadow government can further the frontiers of criticism and questioning [of the current government's policies]."

Lotfollah Siyahkali told Khabar Online that while agreements with China covering various aspects of the economy required parliamentary ratification, there would “probably” be agreement in “information and communication technology” (ICT).

An ad hoc parliamentary committee, called the Joint Siyanat Committee, is reviewing a draft bill on cyberspace regulation proposed to parliament in June, to further restrict access to various apps and websites.

Some of the bill’s supporters argue Iran should emulate China's in creating a national intranet. "The Chinese have unique and innovative experience in this field, which we can put to use," lawmaker Ali Yazdikhah said January 18.

"Passage of time proved that speculation over imitating the Chinese in Internet restriction are more true than other theories [such as using European models, which have generally aimed to extend non-digital rules into cyberspace]," the reformist Etemad newspaper wrote January 25.

China uses its ‘Great Firewall,’ a fortified digital border, to manage access to information entering and exiting the country through the Internet.

If passed, the legislation currently under review in Iran would require foreign and domestic social-media networks and messaging applications to register with a regulatory and supervisory body that would include representatives of intelligence organizations. The ministry of communications and information technology would be charged with blocking any social networks or messaging applications that failed to gain approval.

Lawmakers behind the bill, including the committee spokesman Siyahkali, want foreign social networks and messaging applications to designate a responsible Iranian company as their legal representative and to agree to abide by rules set by the regulator.

The Great Firewall

Iran has been heavily restricting access to the Internet for the past 20 years. Many foreign and Iranian websites, including media websites, are already blocked in Iran although controls are readily sidestepped by VPNs (virtual private networks) and anti-filtering software. While Instagram is the only major social-media platform not blocked in Iran, millions of Iranians use Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, and WhatsApp.

Despite China’s national intranet, the Chinese use various means, including VPNs, to circumvent restrictions.Tech Rader, the technology news and reviews website, recently recommended for visitors and residents the top five VPNs for piercing China’s ‘Great Firewall.’

Tehran in March signed a 25-year cooperation agreement with Beijing. It was launched during Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian's recent visit to China. With around 18 percent of the world’s population, China is home to 20 percent of Internet users globally.