IAEA At ‘Very Difficult Juncture’ With Iran Over Past Nuclear Activities

Malley told the foreign relations committee the administration would work closely with allies to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), “for as long as our assessment is that its non-proliferation benefits are worth the sanctions relief that it would provide.”

But he added, "We do not have a deal ... and prospects for reaching one are, at best, tenuous."

If agreement could be reached, Malley said, the terms of any revival would be open to review by Congress, but not submitted as a treaty for ratification. So far, the Biden team had resisted to make a pledge to Senate review.

He did not confirm the claim by Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett, referred to by Senator Robert Menendez, chairing the committee, that President Joe Biden had ruled out removing Iran’s Revolutionary Guards from the US list of ‘foreign terrorist organizations’ in order to secure agreement over restoring the JCPOA.

The special envoy insisted that continuing to pursue JCPOA revival, which has seen the US in year-long Vienna talks with Tehran and five world powers, did not preclude other actions against Iran.

“We’ve not lifted a single sanction that president Trump imposed, we’ve added to those sanctions,” Malley said. “We’ve taken steps with our partners to go after their UAV [Iran’s drone program], the ballistic missile program, to strengthen both Israel and our Gulf [Arab] partners in their ability to counter the threat that Iran presents.”

Lawmakers zeroed in on past US statements that the time to revive the pact had all but passed - in February and March the State Department suggested it was only a matter of days - prompting an expression of contrition from Malley.

"When are you going to end (the talks)? When are you going to walk?" said Senator Jim Risch, the panel's senior Republican.

‘Worse’ without a deal

Malley said that “all problems” posed by Iran “would be much worse if Iran was a threshold state,” with the capacity to quickly move towards producing a nuclear weapon.

The envoy reiterated criticisms of Trump’s 2018 decision to leave the JCPOA, given the deal had extended to a year the ‘break out’ time Iran needed to make enough fissile material for a crude weapon. “Without those constraints [under the JCPOA], Iran has been accumulating sufficient enriched uranium, and made sufficient technological advances, to leave the break out time as short as a matter of weeks, which means Iran could potentially produce enough fuel for a bomb before we know it, let alone stop it.”

Rather than compelling Iran to give way, Malley insisted, ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions of the Trump administration had led to “Iran’s maximum non-nuclear provocation” including “increasingly brazen attacks by Iran and the armed groups it supports against our Gulf [Arab] partners and our armed forces, leading to a 400 percent increase in attacks by Iran-backed militia in 2019 and 2020.”

‘Fatally flawed’

Among senators critical of the JCPOA questioning Malley, James Risch, a Republican from Idaho, called the deal “fatally flawed” from the start in showing it was impossible to separate Iran’s nuclear program from its other “malign” activities.

But Malley stressed common values held “in this room.” Disagreement, he said “boils down to this: are we better off reviving the nuclear deal and, in parallel, using all other tools at our disposal – diplomatic, economic and otherwise – to address Iran’s destabilizing policies? Or are we better off getting rid of the deal and banking on a policy of pressure alone to get Iran to accept more onerous nuclear constraints and curb its aggressive partners?”

Critics of the deal, Malley added, had said nothing that undermined the advantages of a restored JCPOA.

Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Menendez, a Democrat who opposed the original agreement, said he did not understand why the Biden administration was still willing to negotiate nor what it would do if talks fail.

"Why is it that we are still keeping the door open?" Menendez said. "What is your Plan B?"

Malley said the United States is working with Israel and European partners to try to deter and respond to any Iranian actions, including attacks on U.S. partners as well as its ballistic missile and unmanned aerial vehicle programs.

‘Power to engineer change’

In giving evidence to the committee, Mark Dubowitz of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies that opposes the way the nuclear talks are handled, said a revived JCPOA lifting ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions would allow Iran to net $275 billion in the first year ($130 billion from assets now frozen abroad), $800 billion by 2027, and $1 trillion by 2031. Dubowitz claimed a revived JCPOA would not restrict Iran’s nuclear program but rather make it a “jack in the box,” certainly by the time the JCPOA ‘sunset clauses’ expired in 2031.

After the testimony, FDD told Iran International that the organization does not oppose a diplomatic approach toward Iran but what Dubowitz's testimony made clear is that the current negotiations appear to be providing a patient pathway to a bomb for Iran. Dubowitz believes the US is giving up important leverage in talks when Iran is building up its nuclear program.

Karim Sadjadpour, policy analyst at the Carnegie Endowment, cited an observation of Henry Kissinger than Iran needed to decide if it were a “nation or a cause.” Sadjadpour said the US did not have “power to engineer regime change in Iran” but should use the Voice of America Persian network in taking “the playbook employed during the Reagan administration vis-à-vis the Soviet bloc.”

Sadjadpour said the Iranian leadership showed no urgency in JCPOA negotiations. “The problem is that they think they can get the JCPOA whenever they want it” and could meanwhile achieve concessions, he argued.

The IAEA began investigating Iran for secret nuclear work in 2002, after information was shared by an Iranian opposition group of a possible hidden weapons program.

WSJ has reported that according to some of the documents it has reviewed, it appears that Tehran shared the secret IAEA material with top political, military and nuclear officials to devise misleading answers to the UN watchdog.

The proof of illegally obtained documents was among a throve of archives Israel stole from Iran and disclosed in 2018. Some IAEA documents bear comments and notes in Persian, showing officials used the confidential information to devise answers that would satisfy nuclear inspectors.

While Iran was able to surmise what the IAEA already knew, it volunteered the information to the agency while being able to hide what it really wanted to keep secret.

It is not clear how Iran obtained the IAEA documents, but a major security breach is suspected.

The revelation can have an impact on ongoing issues between Iran and the IAEA, which is still asking questions about unexplained traces of radioactive material in some sites investigated by inspectors since documents revealed by Israel showed secret work on a weapons’ program.

This in turn can impact stalled negotiations between Iran, the United States and other world powers to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement known as the JCPOA.

“I want Rob Malley to give an honest assessment of the status of negotiations and make the case for why diplomacy is the only viable path to keep Iran from a nuclear weapon,” Connecticut’s Democrat Senator Chris Murphy told Iran International correspondent Arash Aalaei Tuesday.

“I don't think the US or our allies should be involved in the business of assassination,” Murphy said, referring to the killing of Iranian colonel Hassan Sayyad-Khodayariin Tehran, widely blamed on Israel.

Rick Scott, a Republican representing Florida, ruled out further talks. “What I would hope to hear [from Malley] is that they're not going to do anything, because the Iranians still chant death to Israel…They still have death threats on American citizens.” He called Tehran’s regional activities “despicable,” saying the US should “hold Iran accountable, just as we hold Russia and China, Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua.”

Alabama Republican Tommy Tuberville opposed renewing the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) but ruled out military means. “There's no way we can allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon,” he said. “No way.”

Cory Booker, Democrat senator from New Jersey, told Iran International a US-Iran confrontation was clear in both American sanctions and diplomacy. “We cannot allow Iran to continue to be such a state sponsor of terrorism,” he said.

Malley is sure to be questioned, by supporters and opponents of the 2015 deal (the JCPOA, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), over Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett’s claim Tuesday that President Joe Biden has decided not to accept Iran’s demand that he drop the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) from the US list of ‘foreign terrorist organizations.’

Supporters of the JCPOA in the US argue that the listing, by President Donald Trump in 2019, was one of many measures intended to doom subsequent efforts to renew the deal, from which Trump withdrew the US in 2018. They also say the the killing of Iranian IRGC colonel Hassan Sayyad-Khodayari was an attempt to inflame Iran’s leadership and undermine diplomacy.

Critics of the JCPOA say the IRGC listing reflects its regional role and alliances with Hezbollah, Ansar Allah in Yemen, armed Iraqi groups, and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. They take comfort from statements from State Department spokesman Ned Price that the issue of IRGC listing is separate from the nuclear negotiations and requires further assurances or concessions from Tehran.

Decision on IRGC listing

Bennett said Tuesday that Biden had informed him April 24 that he had decided not to remove the IRGC listing. Bennett sadi he had agreed not to reveal this but had done so once an article appeared in Politico.

While the Israeli leadership’s opposition to the JCPOA led to tensions with the incoming Biden administration, given the latter’s commitment to reviving the agreement, Bennett now described his recent contacts with Biden as close.

“I laud the US administration, and first and foremost my friend, President Joe Biden, on his intention to leave the Revolutionary Guards where they belong – on the terror list,” Bennett said Tuesday. “President Biden is a true friend of Israel who is concerned with its security and continued fortitude.”

With feelings in Tehran running high after the Sayyad-Khodayari assassination Sunday, and continued pressure for some retaliation for the US 2020 killing of IRGC commander Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad, the Iranian leadership has appeared wary of compromise and has insisted that the delisting of the Guards is a ‘red line’ in the nuclear talks.

A recent visit to Tehran by Enrique Mora, the senior European Union official chairing the year-long nuclear talks in Vienna between Iran and six world powers, raised hopes of a breakthrough but appears to have produced nothing tangible. Likewise, nothing evident has emerged from Qatari attempts at mediation.

Washington awaits

In Washington, senators eagerly await Malley’s appearance at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee with a variety of hopes and expectations.

“I want Rob Malley to give an honest assessment of the status of negotiations and make the case for why diplomacy is the only viable path to keep Iran from a nuclear weapon,” Connecticut’s Democrat Senator Chris Murphy told Iran International Tuesday. “I don't think the US or our allies should be involved in the business of assassination…ratcheting up political assassination frankly puts all of us at risk, and isn't a good practice for democratic nations.”

But Rick Scott, a Republican representing Florida, said the talks were at a dead end. “What I would hope to hear [from Malley] is that they're not going to do anything, because the Iranians still chant death to Israel…They still have death threats on American citizens.”

Reflecting a sense in Washington that Malley needed to clarify and explain the strategy of the Biden administration,Alabama Republican Tommy Tuberville opposed renewing the JCPOA but ruled out military means. “There's no way we can allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon,” he told Iran International. “No way.”

Gabriel Noronha, a State Department special Iran adviser during the Trump administration, said he expected Malley to be “raked over the coals.”

Expressing optimism over the possibility that Tehran and Washington may reach an agreement over the delisting of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), international affairs expert Ali Bigdeli told Fararu news website Tuesday that Raisi’s visit to the sultanate may be an indication that a breakthrough in the nuclear talks could be expected.

“Raisi would definitely not have gone to Oman if the Qatari Emir’s visit to Iran and his European tour had no [positive] outcome,” he said, adding that it is possible that the issue of American prisoners in Iran may have been resolved during the visit.

Iran’s official media say the visit was aimed at improving political and economic ties and have particularly highlighted the trade deals concluded during the visit, including a joint gas pipeline, and opportunities for further cooperation but have not reported any discussion of the nuclear file during the visit.

Raisi’s visit to Muscat Monday was the first by an Iranian president in the past two years and his second to a Persian Gulf country since assuming office in August last year. He made his first visit to a Persian Gulf country to Qatar in February.

Talks in Vienna to restore the JCPOA have stalled since mid-March. Major issues reportedly include Washington’s refusal to delist Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) which the Trump administration designated as a ‘foreign terrorist organization’. Iran also insists on avenging the US killing of IRGC’s Qods Force Commander Ghasem (Qasem) Soleimani who was killed in Baghdad in 2020 in a US targeted drone attack.

Possible Qatari mediation between Tehran and Washington, has somehow been marred after controversy arose over remarks by Qatar’s foreign minister suggesting that Iran's Supreme Leader was ready for compromise in nuclear talks. Iran on Saturday dismissed the remark as reported by Al-Jazeera. Later the broadcaster changed the wording, deleting the word ‘compromise’. On Monday, the Qatari Emir said that Doha is not playing an official mediating role but wants to try to help and encourage all parties to come back to the agreement.

Referring to other diplomatic moves including the recent visits to Tehran of Enrique Mora, the European Union’s coordinator in Iran nuclear talks, another international affairs expert, Abdolreza Faraji-Rad, told Fararu that conditions have improved for continuation of nuclear talks and one can deduce that a change is taking place.

“The sultanate of Oman is still willing to break the impasse in the talks between Iran and 4+1 countries in Vienna and facilitate the release of Iran’s frozen assets despite the changes at the top level of the Omani government [after the death of Sultan Qabus],” Hassan Hanizadeh, a senior Middle East analyst, told another local website.

“It is very important for Oman that the positive outcome of its mediation between Tehran and Washington endures and that the two sides do not conclude that negotiation and third-party mediation are useless,” Oman expert Arash Saffar told Tabnak news website Monday.

“For Oman, managing the contacts between Iran and the US and not allowing tensions to increase, guarantees the security of the Persian Gulf and the national security of [regional] countries,” he said, adding that at the moment the Omani government is more focused on arrangements for unfreezing Iran’s blocked assets in other countries while the Qataris are more active in mediating for the resumption of Vienna talks.