Iran International
Iran’s regime is forcing students and civil servants to participate in the revolution anniversary parade to show it is more popular than the protest movement.
The state television reported Friday that seventy foreign journalists are visiting the country to report the celebrations of Ten Days of Dawn. “Apparently this year they have issued visas to more foreign journalists to report the end of the protests as well as the freeing of the prisoners, and may be other things that could be announced in the next few days,” Hossein Derakhshan, a journalist and former political prisoner said in a tweet Tuesday.
The ten days starting on the first of February mark the period between the arrival of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, founder of the revolution, in Tehran from Paris in 1979 and the victory of the revolution on February 11th.
Street protests have ebbed in the past month, but the Youth of Tehran, an underground protester group, in a recent statement urged the residents of the capital to shout anti-regime slogans every night from their rooftops and windows during the ten-day period including the slogan “We swear on the blood of our fallen ones to endure till the end.
Expatriates are planning their own show of strength through protest rallies on the day of the anniversary in many cities around the world. Iran's exiled crown prince, Reza Pahlavi, has urged all Iranians abroad to participate in the rallies against the Islamic Republic.
Those opposed to the regime often mockingly refer to the Ten Days of Dawn as Ten Days of Torment (zajr) and in the past few days have burned or destroyed many of the banners and other decorations put up in the streets by the state propaganda apparatus.
According to social media reports, education departments in many places have not only issued directives to schools demanding full participation of students, teachers and other staff but also threatened that not attending could negatively affect their chances of getting into higher education or promotion in their jobs.
Mohammad Renani, a professor of theology at Esfahan University and a cleric, said on Twitter a few days ago that his daughter’s class have been promised extra points would be added to their grades if they participated in the parade and that students were even asked to take pictures at the parade as evidence.
Renani called such directives “ethically and politically corrupt” and shared a screenshot of a directive sent by the education department of a small town in West Azarbaijan Province to schools that clearly stated that the attendance of teachers and other employees would be recorded and be the “basis of [future] rating and evaluation.”
Others say protesters who have recently been freed from prison on bail have been forced to give written guarantee that they would take part in the march Saturday.
“Do you think it’s an important occurrence if a total of two million people attend the state-sponsored march out of the eighty-five million population of Iran, by forcing students, civil servants, and mobilizing the armed forces?” London-based journalist Dariush Memar asked other twitterati Wednesday.
“Yes, it is important because the regime is investing in it. What the regime hugely needs now is gaining legitimacy through a massive march to tell the world that those who support it outnumber its opposition. The Islamic Republic needs to rebuild its lost dignity,” one of the respondents to Memar’s question wrote.
At an event at Georgetown University's Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS) -- titled ‘The Future of Iran’s Democracy Movement' -- held on Friday on the eve of the 44th anniversary of the establishment of the Islamic Republic, the prominent activists pledged unity for the single purpose of bringing democracy to Iran.
The speakers, all emphasizing the importance of unity against the Islamic Republic also argued that now is not the time to argue about the exact form of a future democratic government in Iran.
Both constitutional monarchy and a republican form of government have their supporters among Iranians.
Exiled Prince Reza Pahlavi, Nobel laureate Shirin Ebadi and Canada-based activist Hamed Esmaeilion, whose daughter and wife were killed in the shooting down of Flight PS752 downed by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard in 2020, as well as US-based author, journalist and women’s rights activist Masih Alinejad, actresses and activists Nazanin Boniadi and Golshifteh Farahani, former captain of Iran’s national soccer team Ali Karimi and Secretary General of Komala Iranian Kurdish party Abdullah Mohtadi were four women and four men who spoke at the event.
Pahlavi, Boniadi, Alinejad and Esmaeilion were present in the room, while Ebadi, Mohtadi and Farahani delivered video messages.
The event can become a turning point in shaping a united leadership abroad to represent the democracy movement in Iran, where activists have no chance of publicly defending it. Thousands of protesters are still in prison and dozens face the death sentence.
All speakers emphasized that the protest movement is alive and strong in Iran and it needs support from democratic countries. They pledged to work for a new form of government that would be democratic, secular and bring equality, justice and progress to Iran.
The activists representing the protest movement said that they are working on a charter for their group by the end of February and hope to lay the foundations for political representation of the aspirations of protesters in Iran and gain support for isolating the Islamic Republic.
Nobel Laureate Shirin Ebadi referring to the Islamic Republic's ruler Ali Khamenei said, "Dictator say hello to the end."
"It's not a time for infighting. The overthrow of the regime is not possible without unity and empathy," said Ebadi.
"Let's leave differences for the election. We will move hand-in-hand to a better future," she said in her video message.
Abdullah Mohtadi, a Kurdish political leader said that because of Mahsa Amini's killing by the regime, Islamic Republic's falsehood has been shattered.
Actress Golshifteh Farahani, also speaking on behalf of Ali Karimi, said that now is the time for unity and any Iranian sowing divisiveness is committing treason.
Well-known US-based activist Masih Alinejad emphasized the urgency of isolating the Islamic Republic in the world arena.
Hamed Esmaeilion, Nazanin Boniadi and Prince Reza Pahlavi emphasized emphasized equality, justice freedom and the common destiny binding Iranians.
Alinejad said that the group was working on a charter for a transition that would be ready at the end of the month. "We must agree on minimal principles," she said, adding: "The world must prepare itself for a day without the Islamic republic."
"The next wave [of protests] will come and it will be heavier," Esmaeilion said.
"We can organize and plan so, when the next wave comes, all of us are ready and we can transition away from the Islamic republic."
Prince Reza Pahlavi, who has long campaigned for a secular and democratic Iran rather than any restoration of the monarchy, said, "The time has come to consolidate our positions, put aside differences. The time has come to put aside slogans, roll up our sleeves and begin our work."
Updated at 22:00 GMT
Conservative lawmaker Behrouz Mohebbi has claimed the protests revealed the weakness of the opposition. In an interview he said that the Iranian opposition is not powerful and influential because of the discord in its ranks. Meanwhile, the opposition does not have a leader the regime's serious critics would accept.
He further claimed that there is no alternative to the Islamic Republic, and its opposition is not capable of paving the way for democracy in Iran. Mohebbi also added that the Iranian public did not take the opposition seriously.
"The opposition has no acceptable track record. On the other hand, the cultural and political celebrities who opposed the regime have been unmasked during the past months," he said.
The emergence of opposition figures in the diaspora since protests began in September, is a new phenomenon on the Iranian political landscape, as gradually they can coalesce and present a more formidable challenge to the clerical regime.
At the same time, former regime insiders such as ex-prime minister and Green Movement leader Mir-Hossein Mousavi and others made strong public statements this month challenging the regime and demanding a referendum.
Meanwhile, some ask if the protest will empower radical elements in the regime. The fact is that radicals are already in power and even if they increase their influence, it can play into the hands of the opposition and expand the protests.
According to Rouydad24 website in Tehran, protesters demanding an end to the Islamic Republic created the most important challenge for the Islamic Republic since 1979, giving rise to the assumption that the so-called theocratic government in Iran could collapse as the monarchy did 44 years ago.
The report, however, acknowledged that for the time being the Islamic Republic has still the upper hand in the confrontation with the people as a result of the repressive measures taken by security forces, but maintained that the people's anger and the worsening economic situation in Iran will inevitably lead to more protests.
The report added: "The situation is so volatile that even many regime insiders have separated their path from the government. Some top clerics in Qom and An-Najaf and even some military officials have criticized the circle around President Ebrahim Raisi. Even some hardliner news agencies openly criticize Raisi for his economic mismanagement and former insiders, such as ex-President Mohammad Khatami and former Parliamentary Speaker Ali Larijani have condemned the violent crackdown. Yet, there is no indication that anyone in the regime has listened to their complaints."
The report quoted Reza Nasr, a professor of Political Science at Johns Hopkins University, as having said in an article in the Foreign Policy magazine, "Since the start of the crisis, hard-liners have tightened their grip on the reins of power. This faction opposes engagement with the West and does not wish to return to the 2015 nuclear deal. At home, it favors isolationism and tight control of the social and political spheres. Abroad, it favors aggressive regional policies and increasing collaboration with Russia. Far from chastened by the protests, in other words, the regime that is now emerging from the initial phase of the unrest is even more intransigent and potentially aggressive than ever before."
Despite evidence of hardliners having the upper hand for the time being, Expediency Council member Mohammad Javad Bahonar has argued that the protests are deeper and more widespread than in the past five years and that even some of the supporters of the regime have their own grievances and complaints. Meanwhile, former lawmaker and international wrestling champion Amir Reza Khadem has saidthat "Nearly 100 percent of Iranian are unhappy about the current situation. Even the grey strata of the Iranian society, the silent majority, sympathizes with the protests."
Responding to Iranian conservatives' criticism of celebrities' intervention in political affairs, Khadem said that "Celebrities understand the society better than government officials."
In comments on Thursday, outspoken Sunni religious leader Mowlavi Abdolhamid praised Mousavi’s proposal and described it as the result of his understanding about the realities of society, demanding that other politicians see these realities.
“With his recent statement, Mousavi showed that he understood the realities of society. It's time for other politicians and ulema (religious scholars) to think about saving the country and see the facts,” he said. In November, the top Sunni cleric himself had called for an internationally monitored plebiscite, saying that by killing and repression the government cannot push back a nation.
Abdolhamid also criticized over a decade of house arrest imposed on Mousavi, his wife Zahra Rahnavard, and Former Parliament Speaker Mehdi Karroubi, calling it an example of the Islamic Republic’s injustice.
Mousavi and Karroubi both were presidential candidates in 2009, when a highly disputed vote count gave the presidency to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad triggering large popular protests that became known as the Green Movement. Eventually, both Mousavi and Karroubi were put under house arrest in 2011.
Referring to the regime’s violent crackdown on protesters, Mousavi said in his statement that such events have “demonstrated major truths for the nation.” The rulers of the Islamic Republic are not willing “to take the smallest step to meet the demands of the people.” Iran needs a“fundamental change” based on “Woman, Life, Freedom” and constitutional change, he said earlier in the month.
The leader of the Green Movement is known as a staunch reformist, or someone who believes the Islamic Republic can be reformed to become a more democratic and tolerant polity. But Mousavi’s statement rejected reform as a viable alternative, urging fundamental change, a new constitution and a constitutional assembly. Although he did not openly call for regime change, but his demands, if implemented, could lead to a new and democratic political system.
Mousavi in his statement implicitly repeated what exiled Prince Reza Pahlavi has been saying for years, and other opposition activists have echoed in the past five months – transition from the Islamic Republic.
Abdolhamid who has become an outspoken critic of the regime, has stopped short of calling for a new system of government, but endorsing Mousavi’s statement clearly aligns him with political forces that believe the people should be given a chance to decide what kind of government they want.
The 2009 Green Movement leader’s rejection of the reform option in the Islamic Republic has been met with admiration and antipathy alike. Some reformists, including seven prominent political prisoners and over a dozen figures of the ‘religious intellectual movement’, and its mentor Abdolkarim Soroush, have welcomed his proposal, others have strongly rejected it. The political prisoners, including leading reformist politician, Mostafa Tajzadeh and the daughter of Iran former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Faezeh Hashemi, who are behind bars, announced that "they will do their best to advance this proposal and a peaceful and non-violent transition to a completely democratic and developed Iranian structure."
Mousavi’s volte-face can be seen as a milestone in the reformist camp as another bigwig of the movement former president Mohammad Khatami also believes reformism in Iran has reached a deadlock. Mohammad Javad Haqshenas, a prominent reformist figure, said earlier this week that Khatami's statement, which was issued on the 44th anniversary of the 1979 Islamic revolution, should be construed as a premonition for the regime that the Islamic Republic cannot be reformed.
February 11, 2023, marks the forty-fourth anniversary of the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and many people on social media believe that it is the last time the regime is celebrating the event.