Americans Say Biden's Iran Policy Failed

In an exclusive interview with The Telegraph, Nir Barkat said, "Iran is a legitimate target for Israel. They will not get away with it. The head of the snake is Tehran."

Since the Hamas invasion of Israel on October 7, Iran's proxies in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon have joined a regional coalition against both Israel and the US, including a blockade on global shipping in the Red Sea.

"We should very very clearly make sure the Iranians understand that they will not get away with using proxies against Israel," Barakat, who has no input to the war cabinet, told the newspaper.

Barkat, tipped as the favorite to succeed PM Benjamin Netanyahu to take over the ruling Likud party, said, "we should very very clearly make sure the Iranians understand that they will not get away with using proxies against Israel".

The terror attack by Hamas on October 7, resulting in the deaths of at least 1,200 mostly civilians, has triggered a wide scale regional conflict. Described as the most deadly single day for Jews since the Holocaust, Iran has distanced itself from the day known as the Black Sabbath, but has commended Hamas for the atrocities, lauding it a victory against Israel.

Qasem Askari Nasab, addressing reporters during a press conference on Thursday, underscored the hurdles Iran faces in the global arena, with Mundra port emerging as a focal point of concern.

Hossein Shahdadi, Deputy of the Ports and Maritime Organization in Sistan and Baluchestan, elaborated further to ILNA, stating that “while commercial activities between ports remain unhindered, specific shipping lines encounter obstacles in docking ships due to contractual complexities.”

The remarks follow earlier revelations by an Iranian transportation official, highlighting the necessity for global ports to obtain approval from the US Office of Foreign Assets Control before accommodating Iranian vessels. Masoud Daneshmand, a member of the board of directors at the Center of Transport Institutions, echoed the sentiment, emphasizing that numerous Iranian shipping assets are subject to sanctions, resulting in their inactivity.

The United States imposed fresh sanctions in March on entities associated with Iran's shipping and petrochemical sectors. The sanctions align with a 2018 executive order that reinstated measures targeting Iran's oil, banking, and transportation industries. Additionally, in 2019, the Office of Foreign Assets Control issued a cautionary advisory to global entities engaged in shipping petroleum or related products from Iran, alerting them to potential repercussions.

Ardakani is accused of aiding in the acquisition of technology for attack drones sold to Russia. He faces sanctions and charges for his alleged involvement in procuring dual-use technology utilized in drone production by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

The decision to issue the bounty comes amidst growing concerns over Iran's provision of drones utilized in various conflicts, including Russia's war on Ukraine. The Commerce Department, responsible for administering US export controls, disclosed the bounty as part of a broader effort to combat national security threats.

“US-origin flight guidance components procured by the Ardakani network have been identified in recovered wreckage of Shahed drones in Ukraine and other conflict zones. Additionally, the Ardakani network has illegally procured US export-controlled high electron mobility transistors (a.k.a. HEMTs) and other components with ballistic missile applications, as well as other electronics with weapons application,” said Rewards for Justice, the fusion intelligence center created by the State Department that oversees domestic and foreign intelligence committees.

Despite an outstanding warrant for his arrest, Ardakani remains at large, with Tehran listed among his possible locations. People with information on Ardakani's whereabouts are encouraged to come forward through channels including Signal and WhatsApp.

The huge bounty underscores the gravity of sensitive technology proliferation amidst ongoing conflicts. US agencies are stepping up collaboration to enforce export controls, signaling heightened penalties for violators. The move aligns with the Biden administration's call for increased vigilance among businesses to prevent Iran's acquisition of materials supporting its ballistic missile program.

Ardakani joins a long list of wanted figures with bounties on their heads such as Irish gang leaders in Dubai and Somali militants. In January, a $10m reward was offered for information regarding financiers of Iran-backed Palestinian militia, Hamas.

The visit on Wednesday and the issues discussed reflected the intricate dynamics between Iran and Turkey. The visit resulted in ten agreements, emphasizing collaboration in energy, free trade, and transportation. This highlights the significance of political collaboration and dispute resolution in the Iran-Turkey relationship, striking a delicate balance between cooperation and addressing regional complexities amidst geopolitical challenges.

Raisi's visit highlighted ongoing efforts to strengthen economic relations, while forging an image of agreement on regional issues. While mutual distrust may persist, the visit and their evolving relationship indicate a continued effort to navigate complex ties, focusing on economic cooperation and potential areas of convergence in regional policies.

Challenges

Geopolitical competition, conflicting regional goals, and security concerns drive friction between Iran and Turkey. Despite joint efforts to combat terrorism, drug trafficking, and enhance regional security, political and ideological disagreements persist, heightened by the evolving political landscape in the Middle East. Historically, both nations have sought to exploit the shifting regional balance, intensifying rivalry, particularly in Syria and Iraq. Collaborative efforts against the PKK and PJAK and shared economic and security interests are overshadowed by significant differences. 

While the Islamic Republic emphasizes the economic aspects of the relationship to improve morale at home, the significance of Raisi's visit to Ankara lies in discussions on regional security, stability, and shared concerns regarding terrorist groups and Kurdish factions. Raisi and Erdogan likely addressed Ankara's concerns about Kurdish groups viewed as "terrorists" in Turkey, Iran,Iraq, and Syria during their meeting. The bilateral talks also touched upon the impasse in Gaza, where Israel continues its operations against Hamas, a client of Iran and a friend of Turkey.

Gaza War

The Israel factor introduces complexity to the Turkey-Iran relationship, marked by historical ties encompassing trade, tourism, and some intelligence and military collaboration. Geopolitical shifts, particularly Turkey's stance on Syria to the detriment of Iran’s ally Bashar al-Assad, strain the ties.

The recent Gaza conflict has influenced the dynamics between Iran and Turkey, resulting in a mix of collaboration and tensions. The relationship's intricacies involve a blend of collaboration and rivalry, influenced by geopolitical, economic, and security factors. Khamenei's call to "cut vital lifelines" to Israel contrasts with Turkey's ongoing economic ties, highlighting nuanced dynamics. Turkey's pursuit of economic relations with Israel may diverge from Iran's objectives, as Tehran leverages the Gaza war to enhance its regional influence through proxy groups amid tensions.

Economic Cooperation

A wide range of circumstances have shaped Iran and Turkey's economic relations. Both countries have continued their business relations, particularly in the oil industry, despite Iran's economic difficulties and sanctions. The two sides have tried to find solution, such as "gas for commodities" and Iran’s natural gas exports. President Ebrahim Raisi's declared goal of increasing bilateral commerce to $30 billion annually is indicative of ambitious economic aspirations.

However, trade between Iran and Turkey reached a modest $4.4 billion in the first 10 months of 2023, a 16 percent decline from the same period the year before. Mehdi Safari, the Deputy for Economic Diplomacy at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, mentioned that President's visit to Turkey would focus on strengthening energy cooperation, including the extension of the gas contract. Collaborative efforts in investing in Iran's gas resources and establishing an electricity connection from Khoy to Van were indeed discussed, but to what extent Raisi’s wish list would materialize is somewhat questionable. The present natural gas agreement between Iran and Turkey is scheduled to expire in 2026. This emphasizes the difficulties and unknowns involved in maintaining the two countries' economic partnership.

The anticipation is that Iran-Turkey relations will encompass both collaboration and rivalry, characterized by mutual mistrust alongside a maintained level of cooperation. Although a significant shift in their relationship might not be on the horizon, cooperation is expected to persist in counterterrorism, fighting drug trafficking, and promoting regional stability. Both nations have a track record of finding common ground amid occasional conflicts, navigating the complexities of their intricate relationship. The delicate balance between cooperation and rivalry is influenced by geopolitical realities and their respective objectives in Iran-Turkey relations.

President Raisi's visit to Turkey may not immediately resolve ongoing issues between the two countries. Beyond official statements, a comprehensive approach is necessary to examine conflicts and cooperation, particularly in areas like theSyrian crisis, and Kurdish issues. It's noteworthy that Iran's potential inability to supply more natural gas to Turkey due to anatural gas shortage adds another layer of complexity to the situation. 

"Can anyone claim to embrace the culture of jihad and martyrdom while being a thief and embezzler?" Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf questioned, defending himself against ongoing accusations.

The controversy surrounding Ghalibaf deepened with the resurfacing of a leaked audio tape from February 2022. The tape revealed discussions between top Revolutionary Guard generals regarding a major corruption scandal, implicating Ghalibaf during his tenure as Tehran's mayor.

The discussion captured in the recording implicated Ghalibaf, former Qods Force Commander Qasem Soleimani, IRGC Coordination Deputy Jamaloddin Aberoumand, and Chief of the IRGC Intelligence Organization Hossein Taeb in attempts to conceal the embezzlement of 80,000 billion rials (approximately $3 billion at the time) between Tehran municipality and a firm controlled by the IRGC.

The funds, primarily allocated for Qods Force activities, mysteriously vanished during transactions between the municipality and Yas Holding, a subsidiary of the IRGC's Cooperatives Foundation engaged in various sectors, including services, dealership, and housing subcontracting.

Yas Holding faced official dissolution in 2018, merely two years after its inception, following the arrest of several officials. Among the four individuals charged, including Ghalibaf's deputy in the Tehran municipality, Isa Sharifi, all were convicted, handed lengthy prison sentences, and ordered to return a portion of the substantial sums they embezzled.

Despite previous accusations of financial misconduct, Ghalibaf has managed to evade investigation, leading to speculation about his close ties to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.