IRGC Backs Iran Majles Speaker Against New Hardline Rivals
Iran’s parliament speaker has found himself in a weak political position after ranking fourth in the number of votes received in elections on March 1, dominated by radical right wingers.
Iran’s parliament speaker has found himself in a weak political position after ranking fourth in the number of votes received in elections on March 1, dominated by radical right wingers.
However, as a seasoned veteran of the IRGC and a relative of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Ghalibaf still enjoys significant political support. The editor of the IRGC-affiliated Javan newspaper in Tehran staunchly defended him against his hardline political rivals, who clearly covet his position as leader of parliament (Majles).
Gholamreza Sadeghian in an article featured in the most prominent place on the daily's Wednesday's edition particularly addressed Hamid Rasaei, a firebrand headliner, and said he and his likeminded newly elected lawmakers are neither devoted Muslims, nor have any particular expertise that would make them fit for membership in the Majles (parliament).
Since his election, Rasaei has labeled veteran politicians such as Ghalibaf and his predecessor Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel as "hypocrites" and has called for an end to Ghalibaf's leadership in the Majles.
Javan newspaper accused Rasaei of insulting the Majles, which Khamenei has referred to as "a revolutionary parliament." Additionally, Javan charged Rasaei with insulting former IRGC Qods Force Commander Qasem Soleimani, adding that Rasaei, who was previously barred from running for the Majles in 2021, lacks an understanding of Khamenei's expectations for the Majles and its lawmakers.
The daily suggested that the people have the power to remove such lawmakers from the parliament. The severity of the accusations, particularly those regarding insulting Qasem Soleimani, may indicate that the next Majles is likely to reject Rasaei's credentials.
Iran International TV called Javan's article a strong defense of Ghalibaf's leadership role in the next Majles. Iran analyst Morteza Kazemian told Iran International that this is not a conflict between political parties and their members. This is a fight between gangs that benefit from financial resources thanks to their positions in the government and Majles.
Another Iran analyst, Mehdi Mahdavi Azad also called the new MPs, the members of a cult that represent around 5 percent of Iranian voters. He said the ongoing conflict between various groups of hardliners at the parliament started as older hardliners let the genie out of the bottle and now, they find it hard to control it.
Javan also remarked that Rasaei and certain other newly elected hardliners seem to harbor the illusion that they could ascend to leadership positions within the parliament. The publication specifically accused Rasaei of coveting Ghalibaf's role and of perceiving himself as more than just a newly elected lawmaker awaiting credential approval. Furthermore, Javan criticized Rasaei's remarks about other politicians as "impolite" and potentially damaging.
Additionally, Javan recalled Rasaei's accusation against Ghalibaf, alleging that he had attained political power due to his familial ties. This reference to Ghalibaf and Haddad Adel's relationship with Khamenei was untimely and inappropriate.
During the past days verbal attacks prompted Ghalibaf to consider resigning his post as a member of the parliament. Earlier, another hardliner cleric, Alireza Panahian, had called on Ghalibaf to resign after an scandal about Ghalibaf’s son attempting to emigrate to Canada was disclosed by Iran International and on social media.
In an interview with Didban Iran website, prominent lawmaker Sharyar Heidari said on Wednesday that a few days after the latest Majles election, Ghalibaf and his political rivals started lobbying as serious contenders for the post of Majles Speaker.
Heidari said that although there seems to be a consensus about Ghalibaf's continued role as Speaker, the moves by newly elected lawmakers are likely to cause turmoil during the first weeks of the next parliament.
Over the past few days, there has been much speculation regarding Ghalibaf's political future. Centrist daily "Ham Mihan" summarized these speculations into three groups. According to "Ham Mihan," Ghalibaf may choose to continue relying on his old friends to advance his longstanding policies. However, in this scenario, he may struggle to resist the pressures from the new generation of hardline politicians.
Alternatively, his second option could involve joining forces with members of the ultraconservative Paydari Party, along with his friends and allies, to shield himself against attacks from emerging hardliners. His third option might be to form an alliance with any moderates present in the Majles, if they exist, to counter the pressures from the hardliners. Nevertheless, without support from the IRGC and Khamenei, the intensity of the hardliners' pressure could easily sideline Ghalibaf.
This was the focal point of discussion on Monday's edition of the Chashmandaz (Panorama) program on Iran International TV. Host Samira Gharaee engaged Iranian analysts Mehdi Mahdavi Azad, Mohammad Javad Akbarain, and Mehdi Khalaji in a discussion about whether Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has already chosen his successor or if other influential figures will have a say in the matter.
The March 1 elections saw the installment of a new Assembly of Experts (AoE), following extensive pre-election vetting that disqualified hundreds of candidates. Ultimately, there were not even two candidates for each slot when the smallest number of voters went to the polls.
The last time the Assembly decided about succession, was in 1989 when it elected Ali Khamenei as the Islamic Republic's leader. In recent years, a committee of three AoE members have been tasked with "finding" the next leader and "introducing" him to Khamenei. Committee members have said Khamenei's son Mojtaba has been one of those "found" to be fit for succession.
Mahdavi Azad observed that recent developments suggest the composition of the Assembly will have little impact on succession. The absence of influential figures within the Assembly, capable of effecting significant change, suggests that its role may be limited to rubber-stamping decisions made elsewhere.
Akbarain cautioned against accepting government-provided statistics about the Assembly elections at face value, suggesting that they may not accurately reflect the public's sentiment. While the Assembly's composition may align with the government's broader agenda, public skepticism remains regarding both the election turnout and the Assembly's makeup.
Khalaji noted that the Assembly has historically played a minimal role in determining leadership succession. He explained that the reason why totalitarian regimes such as the regime in Tehran hold elections is to control the rotation of the elite in key posts. During the past years, Khamenei has consolidated his power by controlling and weakening various institutions and their members. For instance, the president whoever he might be, poses a threat to the Supreme Leader and must be weakened.
The recent removal of former President Hassan Rouhani as a candidate, and the “defeat” of Expediency Council Chief Sadeq Amoli Larijani in the elections, underscores Khamenei's efforts to consolidate power and eliminate potential threats.
Mahdavi Azad further emphasized that while Khamenei has marginalized key figures within the political establishment, he himself has suffered a decline in influence due to the government's mismanagement of economic and social issues. The weakening of the political system has left no significant figures within the Assembly, signaling a broader deterioration of Iran's governance structure.
When discussing Khamenei's involvement in the election process, Akbarain highlighted the regime's tendency to micromanage all aspects of governance, including the Assembly of Experts elections. He cited a decree by Khamenei emphasizing his supreme authority, even in matters as trivial as the seating arrangements at meetings, or where students should have their summer camp.
Khalaji suggested that decisions regarding succession are made by entities external to the Assembly, with the IRGC playing a significant role in financing Assembly members' election campaigns. He argued that the Assembly merely legitimizes decisions made by external actors, rather than actively shaping leadership succession.
He continued that despite being a totalitarian regime with a leader that micromanages the matters, still the Islamic Republic is an intelligent system of self-preservation, otherwise it cannot survive.
Looking ahead, Khalaji predicted that Khamenei's death will not only mark the transition to a new leader but also signify a broader shift in Iran's governance structure. He suggested that while a cleric may serve as a figurehead, real decision-making power will be consolidated within a network of military and intelligence institutions operating behind the scenes.