Explainer: How Does Raisi’s Death Impact Khamenei’s Succession?

While Iranians opposed to the government rejoiced at the news of their deaths, messages of condolences, and even a moment of silence at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) took place for a man whose legacy has him known as "the Butcher of Tehran."

Iranian-Canadian human rights lawyer Kaveh Sharooz says Raisi's hands are "covered in blood."

"He's a man of no particular talent, frankly, except, following the regime's line and carrying out its dirty work," said Shahrooz.

Just after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the clerical regime began killing its political opponents and dissidents, most famously in 1988. Sharooz said that year became known as the 1988 massacre when then Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini issued a fatwa, ordering the execution of imprisoned opponents, including those who had already been tried and serving a prison sentence.

Raisi was instrumental in that, said Sharooz.

"Raisi himself, was a member of what came to be known among the prisoners as a death commission. You know, he would conduct 2 or 3 match trials where political prisoners that had already gone through trials several years earlier, would be retried, and most of them were actually sent to hang. And from then on, he sort of continued his policy of murder and torture," said Shahrooz.

Despite having committed what many critics allege are crimes against humanity, the leader of the democratic, free world, the United States officially sent their condolences.

When asked about reports of Iranian people celebrating the death of President Raisi, the State Department's Spokesperson said Monday, "I can certainly understand why people inside Iran would feel that way when you look at the brutal repression that happened under President Raisi's tenure, especially when you look at his abuse of women and girls, I can see why the people in Iran would feel that way in response to his death, but I obviously can't speak for them."

Shahrooz told Iran International "it's shocking to me, that so many democratic countries, are not just giving condolences to the regime, but there are actually saying condolences to the people of Iran as if the people of Iran are in mourning, when in fact, you know, we have evidence that they're actually out there celebrating."

On X, NATO's Spokesperson offered their "condolences to the people of Iran" for the death of Raisi.

Many readers were outraged by the tweet, and responded by adding the following 'context note' below the statement: "Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi killed thousands of innocent people for no reason, earning himself the nickname “The Butcher of Tehran.”"

The US Senate Chaplain offered a prayer for Iran's President, saying "Lord, we pray for the Iranian people who mourn the death of their president."

When asked what could explain such a disconnect or potential failure in diplomacy with the people of Iran, Shahrooz said the West mistakenly believes Iran's regime will change its behavior based on carrots.

"It's a continuation of a policy of appeasement that we've seen for far too long. You know, Iran's regime has been able to get away with quite a lot without, substantial pushback, from the West. They've, attacked Western countries. They recently attacked Israel. And regrettably, the Western policies have simply been to go along in the hopes that, Iran will also play along," said Shahrooz.

Meantime, Iranians inside the country set off fireworks to celebrate Raisi's death and diaspora Iranians took to street parties from the Netherland to Canada.

It's not just Iranians celebrating, said Shahrooz.

"I've seen reports of, Syrians, for example, celebrating because they recognize that the Islamic regime and people like Raisi have been responsible for their misery as well," said Shahrooz.

Victims of the Islamic Republic and their families also posted videos to social media rejoicing at the demise of Raisi and his entourage.

Speculations and morbid jokes about the circumstances and the cause of the crash flooded the online world. From puns about helicopter crashes to jokes about the succession race like this one posted by Israel-Iran journalist and analyst Jonathan Harounoff.

"Iranian social media has simply lit up with both jokes and humor, but also very poignant messages," said Shahrooz.

Shahrooz said "the jokes are simply a way for people to exert some power because they've been powerless for decades."

A striking image of a women's braided hair taking down a helicopter is also being shared widely on social media.

Commentators online say the image has become a symbol of women taking down the President who enforced discriminatory laws that led to the torture and demise of many Iranians for decades.

Before his death in a helicopter crash on Sunday, former President Ebrahim Raisi was the most likely candidate for the post.

Following his death, the Assembly, and in fact Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei were in difficulty to choose someone trustworthy from among the elderly clerics at the Assembly. There is no absolute guarantee that they chose the right person for one of the most sensitive periods in the Islamic Republic's history, although they did choose one of the most capable.

Iranian politicians and analysts agree that the new session of the Assembly of Experts is particularly significant, as it may be the one tasked with deciding Khamenei's succession. Some former members, such as Hassan Rouhani, have spoken bitterly about the inevitability of this decision, given Khamenei's age and illness. Ironically, however, Khamenei is about ten years younger than both the previous and the new chairmen of the Assembly.

‌Born in 1931, Movahedi Kermani is 93 years old, but looks relatively fit compared to other aging and ailing members of the Assembly.

Movahedi Kermani, an old guard figure in the Islamic Republic, is essentially the candidate they wanted, despite not having maintained a high profile in the Assembly before. Seyyed Hashem Hosseini Bushehri and Alireza Erafi, the head of Iran's seminaries, have been elected as deputy chairmen. Erafi who is also trusted by Khamenei, might have been a better choice for the position in terms of leadership capabilities.

The Assembly's previous chairman Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati is past 100 and too old to be able to walk, talk, and take care of himself independently. He did not run for the election on Tuesday, although he still keeps his powerful position at the Guardian Council where he determines who can and who cannot run for Parliament or Presidency, albeit based on Khamenei's suggestions.

Movahedi Kermani is a right-wing conservative with a background in the Militant Clerics Society and the former Islamic Republic Society. He was elected to the Majles five times and has been a member of the AoE since the very beginning. He is also a member of the Expediency Council.

He has taken tough stances on certain cultural issues, including declaring the messaging service Telegram as haram (religiously prohibited). However, it is possible that he has little understanding of what Telegram actually is and made the statement as a formulaic pronouncement.

Movahedi Kermani was close to the IRGC during the first years of the Islamic Republic but his links to the new generation of the Revolutionary Guard officers are not clear.

Of the 86 members of the Assembly, 83 were present at Tuesday's meeting, some with assistance from male nurses. Movahedi Kermani received 55 votes and will chair the Assembly's meetings for the next two years. Managing meetings where over 30 percent of the attendees do not support his leadership could prove challenging.

Unless all decisions are prearranged and the stage is set by Khamenei himself by naming his successor(s), the new chairman of the Assembly may struggle to achieve consensus on succession when the Islamic Republic needs it most. This uncertainty leaves the future unclear for many, insecure for some, and unstable for others.

They also reported finding the bodies of Raisi and foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian close together but were barred from publishing any videos for "security reasons."

The search operation, which lasted over 15 hours, only concluded successfully with the aid of a night-vision drone provided by Turkey. The long delay in locating the helicopter, which also carried six others, intensified criticism of the Iranian government's efficiency, even in handling crises involving its top leaders.

Speculation about the cause of the crash is rampant, with theories ranging from an outlandish plot by Israel to more credible possibilities such as severe weather conditions.

Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran's former foreign minister, controversially attributed the crash to US sanctions that restrict Iran’s access to essential aviation parts. In a Monday interview, Zarif stated, "One of the culprits behind the tragedy is the United States."

The helicopter, a 1970s-era US Bell chopper, had been in service since the monarchy, later confiscated by the government for official use. Observers point out that despite Iran's strong ties with nations like Russia and China, the regime has failed to modernize or adequately maintain its aviation fleet, raising questions about the true state of its domestic military and governmental transport capabilities.

The issue comes while Iran continues to fund billions of dollars to proxies around the region including arming and training Yemen’s Houthis and Lebanon’s Hezbollah with state-of-the-art missiles.

According to reports from Reuters, the Assembly of Experts decided six months ago to remove Raisi from the list of potential successors to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei amid concerns over Raisi's waning popularity, compounded by Iran's deepening economic crisis and international isolation.

His removal signifies a significant shift within the opaque corridors of power in Tehran, reflecting the complexities and secretive nature of Iran's theocratic leadership succession with Khamenei’s favored son among the favorites to succeed.

Vali Nasr, a professor at John Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, said: "Now they don't have a candidate, and that opens the door for other factions or other figures to emerge as serious contenders."

Raisi's presidency, which was initially seen as a stepping stone to the country's highest religious and political office, has instead culminated in a dramatic fall from grace. Critics and insiders alike noted that Raisi was a stalwart executor of Khamenei's hardline policies, particularly in suppressing dissent and tightening the regime's grip amid domestic and international pressures.

However, his inability to mitigate the economic hardships fueled by US sanctions and internal mismanagement eroded his standing.

Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute in Washington, said Raisi’s death “could result in internal infighting in the regime unlike anything we have seen since the early 1980s."

Such instability could further expose the vulnerabilities of a regime already struggling with legitimacy issues, as evidenced by the historically low voter turnout in the last parliamentary elections. Official numbers claimed a roughly 40 percent turnout while others showed numbers as low as eight percent, reflective of the record lows seen in the 2021 presidential elections which ushered Raisi into power.

The election occurred during the inaugural ceremony of the assembly's sixth term, attended by 83 members, 55 of whom voted for Kermani, signaling a clear continuity of hardline governance.

Known for his role as Tehran’s Friday Prayer Ephemeral Imam and former secretary-general of the Combatant Clergy Association, he succeeds Ahmad Jannati, a centenarian cleric.

The election for the body which appoints the supreme leader comes at a critical juncture as 84-year-old Ali Khamenei's health prompts speculations about his succession.

With the sudden death of Iran's president Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on Sunday, the role of the Assembly of Experts, responsible for selecting the next Supreme Leader, gains critical importance as Raisi was viewed by many as a likely successor.

However, the integrity of the electoral process is under scrutiny due to recent electoral manipulations that saw a sharp reduction in candidate eligibility.

In a move that has raised eyebrows internationally, key political figures with potentially sensitive insider information were barred from running. Former President Hassan Rouhani and three former intelligence ministers, Ali Fallahian, Haider Moslehi, and Mahmoud Alavi were disqualified.

Such exclusions by the Guardian Council, which also disqualified 366 out of 510 clerical candidates, have sparked accusations of engineered election outcomes aimed at ensuring a hardliner succession that could further tighten the ideological grip on Iran.

Critics argue that such actions depict a regime fearful of any potential dissent or deviation from the supreme doctrinal line, especially at a time when public discontent is simmering over the economic crisis and brutal social restrictions.