Iranian Activists Take Center Stage at Oslo Freedom Forum 2024

Though the attacks, often from hundreds of miles (kms) away, are not seen by western officials and Israeli experts as posing the same level of threat to Israel as point-blank strikes by Hamas and Hezbollah, they have increased in number and sophistication.

At least two have hit their targets and many have had to be shot down by U.S. and Israeli defenses, according to U.S officials and public statements by the Israeli military.

New weaponry such as cruise missiles have been regularly used since May and are harder for air defenses to destroy.

"Overall, the intensity and the types of weapons systems used have steeply escalated," said Mike Knights, a fellow at the U.S.-based Washington institute for Near East Policy, where he tracks the attacks. "It complicates the Israeli task and is an increased financial cost," he said.

Reuters spoke to more than a dozen people, including sources in Iraqi armed groups and other factions in Iran's network of regional allies known as the Axis of Resistance, alongside U.S. and other regional officials, most of whom spoke on condition of anonymity to give candid assessments of a sensitive issue.

They said the attacks by Iraqi factions, including Kataib Hezbollah and Nujaba, were a cause for rising concern for Washington and also viewed with unease among some in Iran and its powerful Axis ally Hezbollah in Lebanon, which has carefully calibrated its own engagements with Israel to prevent all-out regional conflict.

"They could get the Axis involved in something it does not currently want," a senior figure in the Axis of Resistance said, describing the view among pro-Iran groups on condition he not be identified.

Iran and Hezbollah, the most organized members of the network, have in the past struggled to rein in Iraqi factions.

Hussein al-Mousawi, a spokesperson for Nujaba, one of the main armed Shi'ite factions in Iraq participating in strikes on Israel, told Reuters the strikes were a natural evolution of the role of Iraqi groups and aimed to increase the cost of the war in Gaza. They intend to strike from anywhere, for as long as is necessary.

"The operations carried out by the Resistance are not bound by temporal or spatial boundaries," Mousawi said. "We, as a resistance, do not fear the consequences as long as we are in the right and we represent the popular and official will."

The Iraqi government, which carefully balances its alliances with both Washington and Tehran, does not officially approve of the strikes but has been unable or unwilling to stop them.

Critics say this shows the limits of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani's power in a coalition government that includes Iran-backed armed groups, and may undermine efforts to rebrand Iraq as stable and open for business.

Iraq does not recognize Israel and a 2022 law punishes those trying to normalize ties with death or life in prison. Israel views Iraq as an Iranian vassal state and main corridor for weapons from Iran to other armed groups including Hezbollah.

The Israeli and Iraqi governments did not respond to requests for comment. The U.S. State Department declined to comment.

ESCALATING THREAT

The Iraqi groups trace their roots to the fight against U.S. troops in Iraq after the toppling of dictator Saddam Hussein in 2003. They have since grown their regional reach, mirroring the evolution of other Iranian allies such as the Houthis in Yemen who have launched strikes on shipping in the Red Sea.

Iraqi groups joined the Syrian civil war in support of Iran's ally President Bashar al-Assad, gaining a foothold in territory near the border with Israel. A shadowy Iraqi group claimed drone attacks on Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in 2021 and 2022.

The attacks by Iraqi groups on Israel are launched from areas south of Baghdad and in the Iraqi-Syrian border area where Iran-backed factions hold sway, according to Knights.

To get from Iraq to Israel, projectiles must fly over Syria, Jordan or Saudi Arabia.

While Iran has been keen to have Iraqi factions contribute to the regional battle against Israel, their propensity to miscalculate was a constant cause for concern, the senior figure in the Axis said.

He noted that the Iraqi groups had already unwittingly caused a major regional escalation in January, when they killed three U.S. troops in a drone attack on a U.S. outpost in Jordan.

That attack - which crossed multiple U.S. and regional red lines by hitting a neighboring Arab state and killing Americans - led to a deadly campaign of U.S. airstrikes in Iraq and Syria.

So serious was the risk of escalation then, that the commander of Iran's elite Quds Force travelled to Baghdad to tell the factions to dial down their attacks, Iranian and Iraqi sources told Reuters at the time.

Attacks on U.S. forces stopped. There was a brief lull. Then, they turned their attention to Israel.

A senior Iranian official who asked not to be identified to discuss sensitive matters said this shift in focus was part of a plan to keep the pressure on Israel over the Gaza war.

A U.S. defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity in line with regulations, said the attacks on Israel jeopardized the stability of Iraq and the region by increasing the risk of military action, including potentially by the U.S. and Israel.

"The sophistication and frequency of these attacks highlight the escalating threat posed by these groups" the official said.

"The U.S. military will not hesitate to act to protect our forces and support the defense of our allies."

'FREE HAND'

Iraq has posed a threat to Israel before - notoriously during the 1991 Gulf War when Saddam fired barrages of Scud missiles at Tel Aviv and Haifa.

At the time, Washington prevailed upon Israel not to retaliate to avoid an escalation that could undermine a U.S.-led coalition, including Arab armies, which had been pulled together to eject Iraqi forces from Kuwait.

After Hamas militants launched their attack on Israel on Oct. 7 last year precipitating the war in Gaza, Iraqi Shi'ite armed factions, like other pro-Iranian groups, pledged to carry out attacks in solidarity with the Palestinians.

They initially targeted mainly U.S. forces based in Iraq and Syria. But on Nov. 2 they claimed their first ever attack on Israel.

A handful of other claimed attacks on Israel followed in the next few months, including four in February, even after the groups had publicly halted attacks on U.S. forces, according to public claims of responsibility by the Iran-backed groups.

The number of claimed attacks shot up to 17 in March, and doubled again in May, averaging more than one a day, though U.S. officials and the source in the pro-Iranian Axis said they are not certain all the claimed attacks were genuine.

Reuters was not able to determine exactly how many attacks have been launched nor how many hit their intended target.

The attacks are frequently accompanied by video released on social media purporting to show the projectiles being fired from remote Iraqi desert sites as militants shout the names of holy figures revered mainly by Shi'ites. Reuters was not able to verify the date or location of the videos.

While Israel rarely comments on its operations in neighboring states, it is thought to have struck pro-Iran groups in Iraq before, in 2019, when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he had given the military "a free hand" to act "to thwart Iran's plans".

Asked to provide information on launches by Iran-backed factions in Iraq, the Israeli military declined to comment.

Israeli authorities have publicly confirmed at least two impacts on the coastal city of Eilat that Israeli media said came from Iraq, on a school in November and a naval base in April.

Additionally, the military has announced many interceptions of projectiles coming "from the east", widely seen as a reference to Iraq. No injuries or deaths have been reported as a result of the attacks.

Amos Yadlin, a retired Israeli air force general who formerly headed military intelligence, said he would rate the level of threat the attacks pose to Israel as "one step down" from Hezbollah or the Houthis.

The U.S. defense official said projectiles fired from Iraq had been intercepted by U.S. forces operating "from various locations in the Middle East, as part of our commitment to Israel's defense and regional security."

"The frequency of these actions has increased in response to the rising number of threats," the official said.

SOURCE:REUTERS

By Timour Azhari and Laila Bassam

E3 diplomats reportedly cited Iran’s lack of cooperation with the agency, fearing Iran is trying to develop a nuclear weapon. The Islamic Republic has repeatedly denied that claim, insisting its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes.

A diplomatic source told Agence France-Presse (AFP) that the censure has been formally tabled, claiming an “urgency” to react to the situation.

The draft resolution seen by AFP reportedly demands Iran readmit IAEA inspectors and restore camera surveillance at nuclear sites.

The E3’s plan to censure Iran is a "bold move and a remarkable turn of events," according to Andrea Stricker, the Deputy Director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD)’s Nonproliferation and Biodefense program.

“The E3 moving ahead on its own by itself is fascinating,” said Stricker.

“Typically, they [E3] won’t pursue censure unless Washington goes along with it. We don't know yet if Washington is going to vote for the censure or abstain,” she added.

Jason Brodsky, the policy director of United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), believes the Europeans are frustrated with the US policy on Iran.

"I think they sense that US policy is adrift. That we have no strategy as it relates to the Islamic Republic, particularly with respect to its nuclear program, and that the status quo of inaction amid a series of Iranian escalatory behaviors," Brodsky told Iran International.

The development comes amid heightened tensions over Iran's nuclear capabilities.

A recent confidential International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report, reviewed by Iran International and other media outlets, warned Iran is continuing to enrich uranium to near weapons-grade levels.

According to the report, Iran’s estimated stockpile of enriched uranium had reached more than 30 times the limit set out in the 2015 nuclear agreement between Tehran and the world powers.

Uranium enriched to 60 percent is close to the levels of 90 percent needed for atomic weapons.

A recent report from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) alleged the US was pressuring its European allies not to confront Iran on its nuclear program. The report stated that the US and Europe were at odds on how to deal with Iran.

But US officials said that Washington was tightly coordinating with its E3 allies to contain Iran.

In a previous interview with Iran International, Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the FDD, said the fact that there has not been a resolution of censure for more than a year demonstrates the US is not on the same page with its E3 allies when it comes to Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

At the time, US officials said no decision had been taken with respect to the Board of Governors meeting.

Stricker told Iran International the move by Britain, France and Germany to censure Iran suggests the nations' approach to Iran drastically differs from that of the Biden administration.

“The E3 is realizing that the Biden administration's approach and previously the European approach to Iran, which is to de-escalate tensions, to try to use diplomacy to get them to restrain their nuclear advances, is not yielding any sort of benefits,” she said.

The IAEA said Iran is the only non-nuclear weapon state to enrich uranium to such levels.

On Monday, IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said the agency “has lost continuity of knowledge in relation to the production centrifuges, rotors and bellows, heavy water, and uranium.”

"Public statements made in Iran regarding its technical capabilities to produce nuclear weapons and possible changes to Iran’s nuclear doctrine only increase my concerns about the correctness and completeness of Iran’s safeguards declarations,” said Grossi during a session with the IAEA Board of Governors.

On Saturday, Ali Shamkhani, a political advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, warned on X that if “some misguided European countries... adopt a hostile stance towards Iran... at the board, they will face a serious and effective response from our country."

Brodsky believes Iran will respond to the censure resolution.

"I think what the US and its E3 allies do in response to that escalation is going to be equally as important as the resolution. Let's not forget that what I think has been deeply harmful in this entire debate over the censure resolution as it became public that the United States was hesitant or opposed to a censure resolution. I think that Ayatollah Khamenei is a keen judge of the US will."

Russia’s ambassador to the international organizations in Vienna also posted to X this weekend, claiming that a “anti-Iranian resolution” could pose the risk of "seriously deteriorating the situation”.

Negotiations on Iran's nuclear program are on hold after the death of Iran’s president Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash last month near the border with Azerbaijan.

In a presser Monday in Beirut, Iran's acting Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani said exchanges of messages and consultations are still underway with the United States.

The Associated Press reported last month that Bagheri held indirect talks in Oman with Brett McGurk, an adviser to Biden, through Omani officials over heightened tensions in the region.

More than half of those executed were from ethnic minorities, underscoring concerns about systematic discrimination by Iranian authorities and the utilization of capital punishment as a means of oppression.

In its monthly report, Hengaw stated that out of the dozens executed, 25 were Kurdish, 15 were Turkish, 5 were Baluch, and 3 were Afghan.

Underscoring the alarming rate of executions among Baluch minorities in Iran, the human rights group Haalvsh disclosed on Sunday that 171 Baluch citizens were executed in various prisons across the country between March 2023 and March 2024.

The latest figures follow an Amnesty International report showing that Iran led a surge in recorded executions in 2023, with at least 853 people executed. Amnesty notes these figures represent only the official count, suggesting the actual number could be much higher.

The report also highlighted a significant disparity: although the Baluchi minority constitutes about 5% of Iran's population, they accounted for 20% of the executions in 2023.

Among the prisoners executed in May was Ramin Saadat, a juvenile offender. His execution has raised significant concerns about Iran's compliance with international treaties it has ratified, such as the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights and the Convention on the Rights of the Child. Despite its proclaimed commitment to protecting the rights of minors, the Iranian authorities' continued execution of juvenile offenders highlights a clear disregard for these obligations.

Also among those executed last month, were at least four women: Fariba Mohammadzahi in Kerman prison, Razieh in Vakil Abad prison in Mashhad, Parveen Mousavi in Urmia prison, and Fateme Abdullahpour in Neishabur prison.

Drug-related charges accounted for 38 of the executions, constituting more than half of all cases. Additionally, 26 individuals were executed for premeditated murder, representing a significant portion of the total. Furthermore, two individuals were executed for their religious beliefs.

Iran's judicial process is often criticized for its lack of independence, transparency, and fairness, with prisoners frequently denied legal due process and, in many cases, convicted on fabricated charges.

The United Nations and various human rights organizations have repeatedly called on Iran to halt executions.

Despite these appeals, Amnesty's report revealed that in 2023, Iran accounted for 74% of the 1,153 executions recorded globally.

Earlier in the day, Syrian state media reported that an unknown number of people were killed in an Israeli air strike.

Abyar's rank is not clear, but the his designation as an advisor points to his likely high rank as an officer in the IRGC.

Iran claims its forces in Syria are advisors invited by the Syrian government, while since 2011 it has sent thousands of Iran, Afghan, Iraq and Pakistani militias to fight to defend President Bashar al-Assad against his opponents in the country's civil war.

This was the second reported attack on the country in less than a week, following a string of air strikes since the October 7 Hamas invasion of Israel. Some sources said the targets were affiliated with Iranian-backed forces in the region. Israel usually does not comment about its air strikes in Syria.

The strikes at around 12:20 a.m. early Monday (2120 GMT on Sunday) "led to a number of fatalities and some material damage", the source said, without elaborating. Independent sources have not reported more details so far.

A devastating air strike on April 1 flattened a building in the Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus, where two senior Revolutionary Guard generals and five other officers died. Reportedly, these individuals were involved in operations aimed at intensifying attacks on Israel. This led to a massive Iranian missile and drone retaliatory attack against Israel on April 13, which inflicted minimal damage. Most projectiles were shot down.

During a session with the IAEA Board of Governors, Director-General Grossi stated, "Public statements made in Iran regarding its technical capabilities to produce nuclear weapons and possible changes to Iran’s nuclear doctrine only increase my concerns about the correctness and completeness of Iran’s safeguards declarations." 

In response to Iran International about the proposed resolution by three European countries against the Islamic Republic, Grossi stated that the member countries must express their opinions on the matter and that the Agency is only obliged to comply with it if the resolution is approved.

Before the Board of Governors meeting, three diplomats told Reuters that three European countries have shared the draft text of their resolution with the member countries of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Grossi commented on Iran's non-compliance with the Additional Protocol and Shamkhani's threat to stop cooperating with the Agency if a resolution is issued in the Board of Governors, saying that Iran will continue to cooperate with the Agency due to its legal obligations as a member of the NPT.

Grossi articulated concerns stemming from recent public declarations in Iran that hint at a potential doctrinal shift, which may no longer consider nuclear weapons as prohibited by Islam, as earlier claimed by the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The shift comes amid provocations from top Iranian officials who have hinted at a reconsideration of the religious ban on nuclear arms.

The Director-General also expressed regret over Iran’s recent decision to continue barring several key IAEA inspectors from the country after inspectors detected uranium enrichment levels near weapon-grade in early 2022. The discovery revealed that Iran had enriched uranium to 84% in February 2022, nearing the 90% threshold considered weapons-grade. Just weeks ago, Grossi also warned Iran is "weeks not months" away from a nuclear weapon.

Grossi lamented that his recent efforts to foster cooperation were undermined, not least by the death of Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian. He acknowledged ongoing dialogues with other Iranian officials, including Vice-President Mohammad Eslami, but noted that substantial obstacles remain.

Admitting that Iran's uranium enrichment continues to intensify, Grossi said, "We know that Iran is considering a number of activities which require construction of new facilities, installing new cascades, among other things". In the Monday press conference, Grossi stressed the severity of the situation as the program continues unabated. "They should be informing us of these changes," he said. 

Grossi pointed out that it has been over three years since Iran ceased applying its Additional Protocol, restricting the IAEA’s ability to perform comprehensive inspections. "There has been no progress in resolving the outstanding safeguards issues," he stated, mentioning unresolved queries regarding traces of uranium found at undeclared sites in Varamin and Turquzabad.

On Saturday, ahead of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors meeting, Iran issued a warning regarding a possible censure resolution. Ali Shamkhani, a senior aide to Iran's Supreme Leader and reported head of Iran's nuclear negotiations, declared that Iran would deliver a "serious and effective response" if European countries advanced a resolution criticizing its nuclear program.

While publicly, Iran has consistently maintained that its uranium enrichment is solely for civilian purposes and denies any ambitions to develop nuclear weapons, in recent weeks, senior Iranian officials have warned they might reconsider Tehran’s nuclear doctrine if faced with an attack.

It comes as the shadow war between Iran and its archenemy Israel came out into the open in April when Iran launched its first ever direct attack on the Jewish state. Over 350 drones and missiles were launched, mostly intercepted by Israel and a US-led coalition, but taking the years-long proxy war to a new level in which nuclear weaponry became a viable threat.