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The tribute has sparked global outrage, seen as an insult to the countless victims of Raisi’s oppressive rule under the Islamic rule of Iran.

Raisi, a hard-liner and protégé of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, was implicated in the mass execution of thousands of political prisoners in 1988 and was instrumental in the suppression of dissent throughout his tenure leading to the deaths of hundreds of protesters in the wake of the 2022 uprising.

As head of the Iranian judiciary and later as president, his administration was marked by crackdowns on human rights, where hundreds of dissidents were detained, and many subjected to torture and ill-treatment.

"Offering condolences and tributes to a regime notorious for its systemic human rights abuses, support of terrorism, and suppression of dissent, essentially legitimizes its heinous actions," stated the group from Norway.

The organization highlighted that under Raisi’s leadership, human rights violations persisted, including the suppression of the Woman, Life, Freedom movement, resulting in over 20,000 arrests and the deaths of more than 500, including children. These atrocities were confirmed by a UN fact-finding mission in March as crimes against humanity.

The group's March letter to the Special Rapporteur on the Situation of Human Rights in Iran also detailed ongoing violations, including the destruction of graves and harassment of families of political prisoners, urging immediate international intervention.

Last year the UN revealed that Iran had executed record numbers of citizens in 2023, voting at least 834, while inviting Iran to chair a human rights dialogue in November.

These unofficial reports seem to be close to reality, given the ambiguous response from the Foreign Ministry spokesperson on Monday.

At this stage it is difficult to judge the significance and purpose of this move. It could be an attempt by Khamenei to delegate the talks to an experienced deal maker, not knowing what the elections will bring, or a sign of a possible intention to achieve some progress.

Tabnak news website in Tehran has claimed that Shamkhani was actually put in charge of the talks approximately two months ago. The website speculated that leaking the news now might be a signal of serious talks. However, an analyst suggested to Iran International that either Shamkhani or his associates are now leaking this information ahead of the presidential election possibly to enhance Shamkhani’s stature as a possible presidential candidate.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani responded to a reporter's question about the unofficial reports about Shamkhani’s alleged appointment, stating, "I have no specific comment on this matter.” He immediately added that Tehran’s negotiating team has advanced the negotiations in coordination with and under the supervision of the high-ranking institutions of the regime, “and all capacities within the governance framework have been utilized in this context."

Many domestic media outlets have interpreted the ambiguous response from the Foreign Ministry spokesperson as a tacit confirmation of the matter.

Some media have viewed this change as a reaction to the death of Ebrahim Raisi and Hossein Amir-Abdollahian in the helicopter accident, as a force majeure to deal with the vacuum.

Yesterday, Hadi Mohammadi, an Iranian journalist wrote in a post on the X platform that the responsibility for the nuclear negotiations has been handed over to Shamkhani.

The Guardian also reported this news, stating that Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, is attempting to negotiate improved access to Iran's nuclear sites. However, this process has slowed down due to Raisi's death. The significance of this matter is underscored by the fact that nuclear negotiations have been entrusted to Khamenei's advisor, Shamkhani.

In March 2023, Iranian and Saudi Arabian media reported that the two countries had agreed to resume bilateral relations during Shamkhani's trip to Beijing. This development highlighted his lobbying skills, influence, and Khamenei's trust in him.

The agreement with Saudi Arabia was considered unprecedented because it was signed by Shamkhani, which, according to observers, bypassed the Foreign Ministry and sidelined Amir-Abdollahian.

In the spring of 2023, Khamenei appointed Shamkhani as a member of the Expediency Discernment Council and his political advisor, after removing him as the head of the Supreme National Security Council.

In an exclusive report in June 2023, Iran International revealed that the former Secretary of the National Security Council had to resign following the disclosure of his role as a key member of the government circle connected to Naji Sharifi Zindashti, a cartel involved in kidnapping and drug trafficking in collaboration with the IRGC.

The visit of Sayyid Badr bin Hamad al-Busaidi was framed as an expression of sympathy following the helicopter crash that killed Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and several members of his delegation last week but Muscat has been hosting unofficial US-Iran talks in a bid to calm escalating conflict in the Middle East.

Following the sudden death of the president, the role of countries such as Oman amid the leadership vacuum become ever more valuable for Tehran.

Earlier this month, Axios revealed that Biden administration officials engaged in indirect negotiations with Iranian representatives in Oman to address regional concerns including the Iran-backed Houthis’ Red Sea blockade and Iran’s support for Hamas and Hezbollah amid the war in Gaza. 

According to two sources cited by Axios, Brett McGurk, President Joe Biden’s chief Middle East adviser, along with Abram Paley, the acting US envoy for Iran, met with unnamed Iranian envoys to not only talk about regional tensions but also to delve into issues concerning Iran's advancing nuclear program.

On Friday, the first formal report by the General Staff of the Armed Forces on the helicopter incident was published. Although this report ruled out the possibility of the chopper being shot down, it did not state the main reason for the crash and mentioned that “more time is needed for a definitive conclusion”.

Adding to the perplexity, it has come to light that the President's bodyguard was notably absent from the ill-fated helicopter.

Raisi’s chief of staff’s account vs preliminary official report

An interview with Gholamhossein Esmaeili, Raisi's chief of staff and a member of the president's entourage, has further contributed to the confusion.

In the early hours of May 19th, Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi embarked on a journey, accompanied by his entourage, from Tehran to Tabriz.

Timeline of events on May 19th according to Iran President chief of staff:

6:00 AM (Tehran Time): Iran's president and his entourage flew from Tehran to Tabriz, located in the East Azerbaijan province of northwestern Iran, by plane.

7:15/30 AM: From Tabriz, three helicopters were utilized for a project visit in Agh Band.

9:00 AM: The second leg of the journey proceeded from Agh Band to Khoda Afarin, near the Giz Galasi Dam, with further plans for travel.

1:00 PM: The final leg was supposed to be from Khoda Afarin towards Tabriz, but the helicopter crash prevented the completion of the journey.

1:35 PM: En route to Tabriz, the helicopters attempted to avoid a “cloud Layer” by increasing their altitude. While the first and third helicopters successfully navigated the clouds, the president’s helicopter, flying in the middle, disappeared. It was later discovered to have crashed, resulting in the deaths of all its passengers. Iran President chief of staff stated: "We emerged from the cloud layer very normally, even without any turbulence."

Esmaeili's account highlights two crucial points. The first point is his statement that the "weather was favorable, with no issues”.

Noor News, an agency close to the Supreme National Security Council, also reported that all necessary safety measures had been implemented to ensure the president's helicopter flight was secure.

The short six-item report by the General Staff of the Armed Forces also did not mention weather conditions at the time of the incident and stated on item six of the report that "no suspicious issues were observed in the communications between the control tower and the flight crew." This raises questions about the suddenness of the incident.

Signals from the chopper post-crash

Esmaeili's account also sheds light on his communication with cleric Mohammad Ali Al-Hashem, a passenger aboard the helicopter, post-crash.

Esmaeili explains that he attempted to contact the pilot, but Al-Hashem answered the phone instead. He reveals that he queried Al-Hashem about the incident, to which he responded that “he did not understand what has happened”.

In the interview, he stated that he was in contact with Al-Hashem for three to four hours after the incident. However, the alleged surviving passenger was found dead when rescue teams arrived, although his body was not burned like that of Raisi and others.

While “most likely the transponder system was turned off or that the helicopter did not have one,” as stated by the Turkish transport minister, the questions is if there was a mobile signal for up to three hours after the crash. In that case, why pinpointing the coordinates of the helicopter wreckage took 15 hours?

The mystery of the absent bodyguard

The latest images of Ebrahim Raisi show his bodyguard was almost always at his side. However, the released list of casualties revealed that he was not onboard.

Given that the Bell 212 helicopter can accommodate 15 passengers but only had 8 on board, the question arises: why did Ebrahim Raisi’s personal bodyguard continue the journey in a different helicopter?

Javad Mehrabi, the bodyguard of Iran's President, continued the journey in one of the other two helicopters accompanying the president.

General Esmaeil Kosari, a former IRGC commander and current member of parliament, dismissed claims about the status of the president's guards, stating, "Some media outlets are fabricating irrelevant statements.

The second guard was in a separate helicopter as there was no necessity for multiple guards in one aircraft."

However, HamMihan Newspaper in Iran reported suggestions that some passengers may have been reassigned to another helicopter at the last minute before the flight. A video report published May 26 by state broadcaster IRIB shows him getting off the President’s chopper during a landing.

What might have caused the helicopter crash?

Pinpointing the exact cause of the May 19 fatal crash is challenging. Such investigations are long and complex processes. But when it comes to the Iranian government, any such report should be taken with a pinch of salt.

The Armed Forces Staff is the same organization that, after 73 hours of denials, finally admitted that "Ukrainian Airlines flight PS752... was hit [with missiles] due to human error and unintentionally..."

The flight was struck by two missiles from the Revolutionary Guards killing all 176 people on board. Iranian officials attributed the plane crash to technical failure for 73 hours. Canada, Ukraine, Sweden, and Britain are seeking damages for the families of the people on board who were killed and believe that Iran did not conduct a fair, transparent, and impartial investigation and prosecution.

Also, the Ontario Court of Justice ruled in 2023 that the shooting down of Flight PS752 by the Iranian military constitutes "terrorist activity".

Potential causes might include:

1- Weather condition: Some in Iran attribute the crash to adverse weather conditions. A member of the helicopter search and rescue team stated in an exclusive interview with Tasnim News Agency, affiliated with the IRGC, that the "weather factor" can be considered the cause of the crash. However, this contrasts sharply with the account given by the President's chief of staff, who was part of the president's entourage and reported that the "weather was favorable, with no issues."

2- Technical Failure: Catastrophic mechanical failures, like the rear rotor mechanism malfunction that occurred in the King Power Stadium crash, are not unprecedented and could have contributed to the Iran helicopter crash.

3- Human error: Human error remains a constant specter in aviation mishaps. Errors in altitude reading, for example, could have played a role in this incident.

4- Explosive Sabotage: In the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran, it is stated that “the pilot established contact with the pilot of another helicopter approximately one and a half minutes before the helicopter crash”. This again reinforces the hypothesis of a sudden and unprecedented incident.

Farzin Nadimi, a Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute, did not rule out the possibility of sabotage in the helicopter crash. He stressed the importance of conducting a thorough investigation and suggested that various types of "small bombs" could have been employed, including remote-controlled or altitude-triggered explosives. Examining the wreckage could yield crucial evidence.

The mysterious death of Yevgeny Prigozhin, who attempted an unsuccessful coup against Russia’s Vladimir Putin and perished in a crash involving his private jet, underscores the impact of such incidents on both leaders and adversaries.

The market has been in a decline, enduring a drop of over 5,600 points at the opening of Monday's trading, with 90 percent of the market bathed in red and over 60 percent of stocks queued for sale.

The recent plunge echoes the crash of July 2020, where Tehran’s stock market plummeted by over 30 percent in a single week, obliterating the savings of countless small investors lured by government assurances of a secure market. Allegations persist that government entities had artificially inflated the market, extracting hefty profits before its collapse.

The memory of the crisis lingers among investors, heightening anxiety with every market fluctuation. Critics of the government point to the early 2020 decision by President Hassan Rouhani's government to offload state assets on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) as an act of market manipulation. Initially, the index surged to 2 million points, buoyed by small investors coaxed by the government amidst the rial's devaluation. However, it recoiled to 1.2 million points, erasing the wealth of the investors.

At the time, hardliner critics within the government accused the Rouhani administration of deliberately attracting public investment to alleviate a budget shortfall through sales of stocks, predominantly in public and quasi-public companies.

Controlled largely by the government and its affiliated conglomerates, which command approximately 80 percent of the economy, the Tehran stock market is just one cog in a machine of state-controlled economic entities. With Iran's economic chiefs often appointed by the government itself, the stock market's operational independence is compromised.

As the rial continues to lose value and inflation hovers near 50 percent, many Iranians are scrambling to convert their savings into more stable assets like hard currencies or gold.