Israel's Military Hopes to Speak Directly to Iranians to Stop a War

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on Wednesday morning that the Jewish state is "prepared for an extremely powerful action in the north" in response to Hezbollah's attacks.

Estimates by Israel suggest that Hezbollah has amassed an estimated 150,000 rockets and missiles that are aimed at Israel from southern Lebanon.

At an address at the northern Israeli military base Kiryat Shmona on Wednesday, Prime Minister Netanyahu reiterated his pledge made at the beginning of the war with Hamas to restore security in both the southern and northern regions of Israel.

"Yesterday the ground burned here and I am pleased that you have extinguished it, but the ground also burned in Lebanon,” the Prime Minister said.

Netanyahu further underlined Israel's readiness to respond forcefully to any threats and its commitment to ensuring security in the north, saying: “Whoever thinks he can hurt us and we will respond by sitting on our hands is making a big mistake. We are prepared for very intense action in the north. One way or another, we will restore security to the north.”

Israel last engaged in a bloody, high-intensity war with Hezbollah in 2006 following the kidnapping of Israeli soldiers by Hezbollah. To end the conflict, the UN Security Council imposed Resolution 1701 on Lebanon, mandating the disarmament of Hezbollah. Neither the UNSC nor Lebanon enforced this resolution.

During a visit on Tuesday to Kiryat Shmona, a northern Israeli city affected by the fires, Israel’s far-right national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, declared, “They are burning here, we need to burn all of Hezbollah’s strongholds and destroy them. War!”

Since Hezbollah allied with Hamas in the ongoing conflict against Israel, which began with Hamas's October 7 invasion, approximately 80,000 Israelis have been displaced from the northern regions. During the invasion, Hamas killed nearly 1,200 people and kidnapped over 250 in a coordinated terrorist attack.

Expert Urges New Strategy Against Hezbollah

A prominent Middle East expert suggests that the Western public, particularly in the US, lacks a clear understanding of the situation on Israel's northern front, including the key players involved, the reasons for the conflict, and the potential outcomes.

Walid Phares, an American academic expert who has advised US presidential candidates, maintains that Hezbollah operates as part of the Iranian state’s military strategy.

He says both Hezbollah and the regime in Tehran are working together closely to plan and execute attacks on Israel.

Noting that the "government in Lebanon is controlled by Hezbollah," Phares added that this latest escalation is the Islamic Republic waging war against Israel through its proxy, Hezbollah.

Phares identified three possible approaches to dealing with the situation in Lebanon. He noted that the two traditional strategies typically considered by policymakers and military planners involve military action.

The first option entails Israel taking against Hezbollah in Lebanon in a “comprehensive way.”

“They will go in and hit Hezbollah’s headquarters, capabilities, resources, and rockets. That is the traditional Israel strategy against Hezbollah: Threaten them with heavy losses and also threaten the government sitting in Beirut that there will be retaliation against their own interests,” Phares said.

Phares explained that, as part of this strategy by Israel, there is a specific threat to destroy Lebanon's infrastructure.

The Lebanon expert argues the issue with the first option is that Israel's threats are only aimed at Hezbollah and, by extension, the Iranian regime.

Furthermore, the first option, Phares says, will not bring tangible change because Israel is unlikely to launch a ground operation against Hezbollah due to opposition from the Israeli public.

The second option would be to continue the status quo war.

“Hezbollah attacks and Israel counter-attacks. This will lead to a long war which will be costly to both sides because Hezbollah’s decision is controlled by Tehran and Tehran does not care about the destruction in Lebanon,” Phares said.

According to Phares, the third option, which has not been seriously examined or embraced by the US or Israel, is to support the Lebanese in revolting against Hezbollah within Lebanon.

”That is the third option that we have been talking about for the last 20 years,” he said.

The preconditions for the third option involve both Israel and the US shifting their strategies to collaborate with the anti-Hezbollah Lebanese population in dislodging Hezbollah, which is backed by the Iranian regime.

Phares emphasized that this option requires full support from the American administration to aid anti-Hezbollah forces within Lebanon.

He also noted that the US has previously supported various opposition movements in the region, such as those against the Islamic State.

Reports from Tasnim, a news agency associated with the Revolutionary Guards, claim several others have been arrested in the scandal entangling three additional clubs and figures like Soheil Mahdi and Fariborz Mahmoudzadeh, former officials of the Iran Football League organization.

The investigation began with the National Iranian Copper Industries’ complaint against the Mes Rafsanjan club, which catalyzed the initial probe during the 2019 and 2020 seasons.

Last month, the Asr-e-Iran website reported significant corruption within Iranian football, highlighting the inadequate oversight of supervisors and decision-makers, with allegations that agents and managers manipulate transactions to prioritize their financial gain over the sport's integrity.

Corruption is widespread in Iran, especially in sectors dominated by the government and semi-official companies, and it significantly impacts sports, including football. The Iranian economy, heavily controlled by governmental entities disguised as private firms, extends its influence on sports, promoting systemic corruption. This often results in the manipulation of markets, team ownership, sponsorship deals, and player selection.

In Iranian football, although direct corruption within the sport isn't publicly detailed, the overarching governmental control suggests an influence on all major sports. The political and economic dominance by powerful institutions like the IRGC and influential families suggests that this corruption extends into sports, heavily influencing outcomes.

The resolution, tabled by France, Britain, and Germany, received significant support, with 20 member states voting in favor. The two countries who voted against the resolution were Iran's allies, China and Russia. The decision saw 12 countries abstaining from the vote.

Prior to this, Iran vowed to retaliate to any move of condemnation by the IAEA board. The last time Tehran was censured over its nuclear activities was in November 2022.

While the censure may not have immediate implications for Iran, it could be a prelude to what many advocates have called for: referring Iran to the UN Security Council.

Starting in 2006, the UN Security Council imposed several rounds of sanctions targeting Iran's nuclear program. Many of the economic sanctions imposed on Iran were suspended in 2015 as part of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal. The US announced its withdrawal from JCPOA in 2018, and reimposed nuclear-related sanctions on Iran.

Earlier today, the US confirmed its backing of the European powers' initiative to censure Iran pointing to Tehran's lack of cooperation with the IAEA.

The US emphasized, however, that the move should be part of a broader, comprehensive strategy to address the issues surrounding Iran's nuclear program.

"Make no mistake, it is important that resolutions be tied to a broader strategy. This resolution should be a first step in a strategy aimed at achieving a sustainable, effective solution to Iran’s nuclear program that includes full cooperation with the IAEA," US Ambassador Laura S.H. Holgate said in a statement.

Earlier this week, the E3 (UK, France, and Germany) had submitted a draft resolution to the IAEA Board of Governors.

Ahead of the latest US statement, China, Iran, and Russia reaffirmed their support for the JCPOA, although Iran has officially declared that it is no longer abiding by the agreements provisions.

The countries lambasted Western countries for failing to restore the agreement – often dubbed the Iran nuclear deal – insisting on its validity and condemning European nations for maintaining unilateral restrictions.

Referring to the “illegal” US withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018 and its subsequent maximum pressure policy on Iran, China, Iran and Russia said their support for the nuclear deal has remained unchanged.

“It is time for Western countries to demonstrate political will, restrain themselves from the endless wheel of escalation that they have been spinning for the past almost two years and take the necessary step towards the revival of the JCPOA,” the statement by the allied countries read.

The E3’s own statement on Tuesday, meanwhile, criticized Iran for its actions in advancing its nuclear program and escalating tensions in this area, warning that Iran's nuclear program had reached "worrying levels."

The European statement emphasized that recent remarks by Iranian officials about the capability to produce nuclear weapons and the potential change in Iran's nuclear doctrine have further eroded trust between Tehran and the international community.

Yet, the E3 emphasized the need for transparency and cooperation between Iran and the IAEA, urging Iran to cease threats to produce nuclear weapons and adhere to JCPOA commitments, particularly regarding uranium enrichment.

The latest confidential IAEA report, reviewed by Iran International, reveals that Tehran has increased its enriched uranium stockpile to over 142 kilograms at 60% enrichment, a 20-kilogram rise since the last report in February.

In late April, the agency’s Director General, Rafael Grossi, said that Iran could obtain sufficient enriched uranium for a nuclear bomb within weeks. Experts say that for Iran to develop a bomb delivered by a missile, it could take up to a year.

Grossi, who has criticized the lack of transparency in Tehran's nuclear program, recently traveled to the country, hoping to pursue what many say is in vain: transparency and assurances that Tehran’s nuclear program is peaceful.

While there have been sporadic indirect talks between Iran and the US, efforts to revive the nuclear deal have largely stalled. Tehran has consistently demanded the lifting of US sanctions as a precondition for any agreement.

Hossein Salami in a condolence message for the killing of Abiar, said that Israel should “expect a response” for the attack which SANA, Syria's news agency, said killed several 'martyrs' in the attack overnight Monday along with causing 'material damage'.

Israel usually does not comment on attacks in Syria but it has been accused of striking Iranian military targets in Syria since 2011. Iran's presence in Syria grew in the wake of the civil war in a bid to keep President Bashar Assad in power, using Syria as a base to coordinate its proxies in the region and transfer weapons to the likes of Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The Britain-based Syria Observatory for Human Rights reported that the casualties included members of Lebanon's Hezbollah, a copper factory and a weapons warehouse, the intended targets of the strike. 

On Tuesday, Salami attended a funeral service for Abiar, who was a senior member of the IRGC's Quds Force and had been stationed in Syria since 2012, believed to be an advisor coordinating Iran's proxy activities.

It is the second such strike within a week and a continuation of escalating tensions between Iran and its archenemy, Israel. In April, an alleged Israeli airstrike killed two IRGC generals and multiple senior officials at the Iranian consulate in Damascus. It was followed by the first ever direct attack from Iran towards Israel on April 13, involving 350 missiles and drones, mostly intercepted by Israel and a US-led coalition.

A period of relative calm prevailed since mid-April, but apparently Israel resumed strikes against Iranian targets in Syria.

Iranian military commanders and officials often issue threats against Israel and it is not clear if Salami's threat means an imminent retaliation against Israel.

Iran has deployed thousands of Afghan militia and fighters from Iraq and elsewhere to fight against government opponents and take position near the Israeli border. The Israeli attacks have aimed to destroy Iranian weapons shipments to the Lebanese Hezbollah and stop Iran's entrenchment in Syria.

Ali Bagheri Kani said, "The non-constructive approach of some member countries in using the agency's capacity for their political goals will undoubtedly harm the identity and role-playing of the agency," after the E3 nations, comprising Britain, France, and Germany, jointly submitted a resolution to the United Nations nuclear watchdog’s Board of Governors on Monday. 

The resolution highlighted Iran's non-cooperation with the agency, expressing concerns over its pursuit of nuclear weapons amid rapid enrichment. The group also demands answers to undeclared sites.

A recent confidential report from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), highlights Iran's ongoing enrichment of uranium to levels nearing those required for weapons-grade material. Uranium enriched to 60 percent, as indicated in the report, brings Iran's enrichment capabilities dangerously close to the 90 percent threshold necessary for the production of atomic weapons.

Rafael Grossi, head of the IAEA, said Iran is "weeks not months" away from a nuclear weapon. Iran has consistently refuted the allegations, asserting that its nuclear activities are solely intended for peaceful purposes.