Iran Set to Boost Uranium Enrichment Capacity by 3-4 Times

The reason for the meeting of the US-Israel strategic consultative group (SCG) could be to discuss whether Iran has begun active measures to develop nuclear weapons.

Apparently, Iran has obtained computer modeling that could be used for research and development of nuclear weapons, Axios quoted former and current US and Israeli officials as saying. However, there is no unanimous agreement on whether the new capability means Tehran has begun the final process to build weapons, or it does not represent a major shift.

Iran has accumulated enough enriched uranium to build at least three bombs if it decides to weaponize, and it has expelled most UN inspectors from the country. The International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA, has admitted that it has lost its ability to monitor Iran’s nuclear activity. The agency’s board of governors censured Iran earlier this month for lack of cooperation, prompting a response that Tehran will accelerate uranium enrichment. Washington warned Tehran last week not to further accelerate its uranium enrichment. The US and its European allies to take Iran’s case to the UN Security Council for reinstating international sanctions.

One US and one Israeli official told Axios the new intelligence raised “suspicion” and “concern” about Iran’s intentions. According to one official, Israelis are nervous about their failure to predict the October 7 Hamas attack and scrutinize every information available about Iran’s nuclear activities.

The mass circulation German tabloid Bild on Sunday reported that it obtained “confidential files" of the Iranian atomic program.

The Bild wrote “As the documents show, representatives of the UN agency met with Javad Karimi-Sabet in Vienna in early 2022…. Karimi-Sabet has been on a US sanctions list since 2020 and is considered one of the masterminds in the development of the Iranian atomic bomb. According to internal emails, the IAEA paid Karimi at the meeting. Since a bank transfer was not possible due to the sanctions, the scientist was paid the money in cash.”

Karimi-Sabet is the vice chairman of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI).

The IAEA told the Bild that US sanctions are not applicable to its work and did not deny the payment.

“As part of the United Nations (UN) system, the IAEA follows the UN sanctions regulations and does not implement national sanctions regulations, “noted the IAEA.

When asked about the Bild story, which was headlined “Did the UN help the mullahs build the atomic bomb?, David Albright, one of the world’s leading experts on the Islamic Republic of Iran’s illicit nuclear program, told Iran International “I do not agree with the claim that the IAEA is contributing to Iran's nuclear weapons program. Nonetheless, there are many issues with the IAEA's technical support programs when it comes to states violating their safeguards agreements in fact or by intention. Today, Iran should not be benefiting from IAEA technical support programs.”

Albright, physicist and founder and president of the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington, D.C., added “The visit by Karimi is deeply troubling because of his role in establishing Iran's centrifuge program. See photo from our website from earlier days; In this picture from 2008, President Ahmadinejad holds a carbon fiber rotor tube; visible is also a bellows. Karimi is standing to the left of Ahmadinejad, who was touring Natanz. Karimi is likely still working on centrifuges, based on some of his recent publications. “

Albright added Karimi-Sabet “worked in other sensitive nuclear areas, not just on centrifuges.”

The Bild reported that the confidential documents revealed that the IAEA launched funding programs for Iranian nuclear science. The IAEA said, according to Bild’s information, that project “IRA2018001” was coordinated with the Iranians in 2019, with the aim of “Improving the skills and knowledge of scientists and improving the hardware and software infrastructure, which contribute to improving the operation and use of research reactors.”

The paper added “The IAEA also financed numerous training programs for scientists from Tehran in Russia…selected experts were sometimes under the wing of Putin's Rosatom for weeks - the state authority is also responsible for the civil and military use of nuclear energy.”

An IAEA spokesman confirmed the training to the Bild; "The IAEA's Technical Cooperation (TC) program supports member states in (...) development and management of nuclear knowledge." The IAEA added that it ensured that the Iranian participants did not obtain knowledge about nuclear weapons during the training.

Ukraine’s president has long suspected that the quid pro quo between Iran and Russia entailed Tehran receiving support for its atomic weapons program from Moscow in exchange for providing lethal drones to Russia in its illegal war to conquer the Ukraine.

Separately but related, in March, 2023 Fox News Digital reported that the clerical regime in Tehran allegedly secured secret deals with Russia to guarantee deliveries of uranium.

According to the Fox News article, Putin agreed to return enriched uranium that it received from Iran if a prospective nuclear deal collapses. According to the intelligence officials cited in the Fox report, the Iranians exploited the opportunity during Putin’s pressing need for drones and demanded a "nuclear guarantee" that would enable Iran "to quickly restore its uranium stock to the quantity and enrichment levels it had maintained before the resumption of the agreement."

According to reports from Axios citing two US officials and Israeli counterparts, the purpose of the modeling remains unclear, fueling concerns on the back of the UN's nuclear chief warning Iran is "weeks not months" away from a nuclear weapon.

A critical meeting takes place at the White House this Thursday where senior US and Israeli officials will convene for the first detailed discussion on the Iranian nuclear program since March 2023. It is part of the US-Israel strategic consultative group (SCG), aiming to evaluate the recent intelligence and coordinate responses.

The UN recently admitted it had lost "continuity of knowledge" on Iran's program as the country continues to evade inspectors gaining full access.

The International Atomic Energy Organization has observed that Iran is installing more uranium enrichment centrifuges at its Fordow facility, reaching enrichment levels of up to 60 percent purity, alarmingly close to the 90 percent required for nuclear weapons.

In March, the E3 - the UK, France and Germany - warned that Iran has "pushed its nuclear activities to new heights" in spite of global sanctions, pointing out that over the past five years, the levels of the country's enrichment “are unprecedented for a state without a nuclear weapons program" as Iran continues to deny intentions of nuclear armament.

Ali Shamkhani, advisor to the Supreme Leader and apparent nuclear negotiator, stated last week that Iran "won't bow to pressure" amidst US warnings regarding its uranium enrichment activities.

Defiantly, he wrote on X, “The US and some Western countries would dismantle Iran’s nuclear industry if they could.”

In an interview with Russian newspaper Izvestia, the International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi said: “Nobody applies it, nobody follows it. There have been attempts to revive it here in Vienna. But unfortunately, although they were relatively close to success, they failed for reasons unknown to me, because I was not involved in the process.”

The statement comes just weeks after Grossi admitted the agency "has lost continuity of knowledge in relation to the production centrifuges, rotors and bellows, heavy water, and uranium.” He recently also admitted that Iran is “weeks not months” away from a nuclear weapon, with enrichment reaching alarming levels.

He said “the parties mutually blame each other for the failure - mainly the United States and Iran”, referencing the breakdown in progress since the US withdrew from the nuclear agreement under former President Donald Trump.

“ I continue to tell my Iranian colleagues that we must provide the agency with at least minimal access to help return to the second version of the JCPOA or any other agreement,” he stressed, but noted it is not an easy road to deal with Tehran.

“There are problems, I’ll be honest with you. We do cooperate with Iran. I don't deny this. This is important for inspection. My Iranian colleagues often say that Iran is the most inspected country in the world. Well, it is, and for good reason. But this is not enough,” he warned.

On Saturday, France, Germany, and Britain, original signatories of the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, condemned Tehran’s latest actions to further expand its uranium enrichment.

"Iran has taken further steps in hollowing out the JCPOA, by operating dozens of additional advanced centrifuges at the Natanz enrichment site as well as announcing it will install thousands more centrifuges at both its Fordow and Natanz sites," the joint statement said.

During the interview with Izvestia, Grossi also highlighted the importance of Russia's collaboration with Iran, as Moscow "can influence compliance with a peaceful nuclear order”, the two nations firm allies in the field of military cooperation. Iran has been providing Russia with drones for its war on Ukraine, with manufacturing facilities for Russia being built with Iranian assistance.

“I think this is our shared responsibility. And Russia plays a very important role in this diplomacy, trying to keep the Iranian program within a predictable and peaceful framework,” he noted, reiterating that “if we cannot verify everything, we cannot give the guarantees that the international community expects from us.”

Grossi added that since signing the agreement in 2015, Iran’s program “has expanded significantly”. He said: “They are capable of producing the latest generation centrifuges, building new facilities and much more.”

Iran’s nuclear chief insists the country is adhering to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) agreements, but is “in the process of reducing its nuclear obligations from the 2015 agreement." Mohammad Eslami maintained Tehran is still following the NPT Safeguards Agreement and is only reducing the obligations it had under the 2015 nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Iran has responded to an IAEA Board of Governors’ censure resolution, passed in early June, by expanding its uranium enrichment capacity at two underground sites.Iran has rapidly installed two more cascades, or clusters, of uranium-enriching centrifuges at its Fordow site and begun work on more while also planning others at its underground plant at Natanz, a UN nuclear watchdog report said.

"On 9 and 10 June ... Iran informed the Agency that eight cascades each containing 174 IR-6 centrifuges would be installed over the next 3-4 weeks in Unit 1 of FFEP (Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant)," the confidential International Atomic Energy Agency report sent to member states on Thursday said.

"On 11 June 2024, the Agency verified at FFEP that Iran had completed the installation of IR-6 centrifuges in two cascades in Unit 1. Installation of IR-6 centrifuges in four additional cascades was ongoing," the report said, referring to one of one of Iran's most advanced centrifuge models.

While non-binding, resolutions by the International Atomic Energy Agency's 35-nation Board of Governors anger Tehran, which typically responds by accelerating its nuclear activities.

Admitting that Iran's uranium enrichment continues to intensify, Grossi said, "We know that Iran is considering a number of activities which require construction of new facilities, installing new cascades, among other things". In the Monday press conference, Grossi stressed the severity of the situation as the program continues unabated. "They should be informing us of these changes," he said.

Grossi pointed out that it has been over three years since Iran ceased applying its Additional Protocol, restricting the IAEA’s ability to perform comprehensive inspections. "There has been no progress in resolving the outstanding safeguards issues," he stated, mentioning unresolved queries regarding traces of uranium found at undeclared sites in Varamin and Turquzabad.

On Saturday, ahead of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors meeting, Iran issued a warning regarding a possible censure resolution. Ali Shamkhani, a senior aide to Iran's Supreme Leader and reported head of Iran's nuclear negotiations, declared that Iran would deliver a "serious and effective response" if European countries advanced a resolution criticizing its nuclear program.

Presidential candidate Alireza Zakani accused Mohammad Javad Zarif, along with former President Hassan Rouhani and former Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani, of “clandestinely” handling the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) document.

Zakani claimed that the trio withheld the JCPOA from other vital Iranian officials, including then-Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Admiral Ali Shamkhani, and the special advisor to the Supreme Leader, Ali Akbar Velayati, under "utmost confidentiality."

The response from Zarif's office denounced Zakani's claims as “baseless”, highlighting that the JCPOA text and its Persian translation were publicly posted on the Ministry of Foreign Affairs' official website immediately after the deal's conclusion, debunking the notion of secrecy.

Furthermore, Zarif’s office also defended the JCPOA's “legitimacy”, noting its ratification by various Iranian governmental bodies and its alignment with the will of the Islamic regime, as recognized by the Supreme Leader.

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly referred to as the Iran nuclear deal, was a landmark agreement reached in July 2015 between Iran and the P5+1 group, comprising the United States, United Kingdom, France, Russia, China, and Germany.

The core objective of the JCPOA was to curb Iran's nuclear capabilities to ensure they remained strictly for peaceful purposes, in exchange for lifting economic sanctions that had impacted Iran's economy. Under the agreement, Iran agreed to reduce its stockpile of uranium, limit its level of uranium enrichment, and decrease the number of its centrifuges in return for relief from sanctions.

However, the US withdrew from the accord in 2018 under President Donald Trump, which led to the re-imposition of US sanctions. Since then, Iran's uranium enrichment has reached levels which the UN's nuclear chief says allows Iran to be "weeks not months" away from a nuclear weapon.