Turkish media and public embrace Ahmadinejad's visit

Bilateral relations between Iran and the Arab countries around the Persian Gulf has improved significantly since March 2023, when China brokered an agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, then led by former president Ebrahim Raisi who died in a helicopter crash in May.

“I extend the hand of friendship and brotherhood to all neighbors and countries in the region to launch a genuine and serious movement in the path of cooperation,” Pezeshkian said in a piece for the website New Arab. “Iran and its Arab and Muslim neighbors have common positions and interests… We all reject the monopoly of certain forces over world decisions, as well as the division of the world and polarization based on the interests of major powers.”

Iran and its Muslim neighbors do share a concern for Palestinians and their plight. But they have major differences in their approach to address that concern. Iran openly backs Hamas and many armed groups across the Middle East, some of which act against the interests of their government.

In April, when Iran launched a drone and missile attack on Israel, some Arab countries did join the United States to help fend off the attacks. Iran’s president-elect seems to have decided to ignore the differences in his piece.

“The bleeding wound of Palestine is our common cause, and its treatment is also our cause,” he stated. “Security and stability in the region will only be achieved by recognizing the Palestinian people's right to comprehensive resistance as a means to liberate them from occupation and secure their natural and obvious rights.”

Iran’s foreign policy is known to be determined by the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his closest aides, most notably in the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC). Iran’s president has next to no say on strategic decisions beyond the country’s border, where IRGC’s overseas arm, the Quds Force, has for many years been the main player.

Unofficial reports Wednesday suggested that Abbas Araghchi, a central figure during the negotiations that led to the 2015 nuclear deal, would become the Foreign Minister. If appointed, Araghchi may once more play a key role in potential negotiations that Pezeshkain has vowed to pursue in an attempt to revive the nuclear deal.

Many of Iran’s neighbors are worried about the country’s nuclear program, which the UN nuclear watchdog says is one step away from weaponization. The US and other western governments are worried that Iran’s weaponization would lead other countries in the region to pursue a similar path. Once more, Iran’s newly elected seems to have overlooked this point in his piece.

“The Islamic Republic of Iran considers the strength of its neighbors as its own strength,” Pezeshkian said in his piece. “It believes that neighbors should not enhance their capabilities at the expense of others. The uber-priority of Iranian foreign policy is expanding cooperation with neighbors.”

Iran and Russia have grown closer due to the war in Ukraine, which has resulted in sweeping sanctions on Russia from the US and the EU. Iran has supplied Russia with hundreds of kamikaze drones, and unofficial reports suggest that Tehran may be considering enhancing its assistance with missiles.

In a Declaration released on Wednesday, NATO leaders accused Iran of "fueling Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine by providing direct military support to Russia, such as munitions and uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs), which seriously impacts Euro-Atlantic security and undermines the global non-proliferation regime."

The NATO leaders attending a summit in Washington DC warned that "any transfer of ballistic missiles and related technology by Iran to Russia would represent a substantial escalation."

In February, Reuters reported that Iran had provided Russia with “a large number of powerful surface-to-surface ballistic missiles”. The claim was later repeated by UK defense secretary Grant Shapps, who indicated that he had such information but refused to offer details.

Iran denied providing the weapons, and the US said it could not confirm the transfers, but it assumed Tehran intended to provide missiles to Moscow.

Recent satellite imagery published by Reuters showed major expansions at two key Iranian ballistic missile facilities that researchers assessed are for boosting missile production. Sources told Reuters the missile components would be sold to Russia.

The NATO leaders' warning comes less than a month after the Group of Seven leaders warned Iran not to give Russia ballistic missiles.

"We call on Iran to stop assisting Russia’s war in Ukraine and not to transfer ballistic missiles and related technology, as this would represent a substantive material escalation and a direct threat to European security," the G7 stated in mid-June.

Under severe international sanctions, Russia and Iran have expanded their economic ties, with mutual trade standing at $4 billion, which even Iranian officials admit is far below the target of $40 billion.

The two countries reached an agreement in December to eliminate the use of the US dollar in bilateral trade, a development heralded by Iran's central bank governor as a "new chapter." However, the move has more of a symbolic significance than a real economic act.

Last week, the European Union reportedly accepted a request from Germany to consider designating IRGC as a terrorist entity. However, Germany is not the only European country pushing for the listing of the Revolutionary Guard.

Dutch Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp announced on Wednesday that the Netherlands "will join the initiative to promote a decision in the EU to declare the IRGC a terrorist organization," Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz tweeted, after their meeting on the sidelines of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit in Washington DC.

The two sides also discussed “the need to promote severe sanctions against Iran," Katz said. "We will continue to join hands in our fight against terror."

In late June, the German Press Agency (DPA) quoted diplomats as saying that “multiple EU countries including Germany are pushing to classify the IRGC as a terrorist organization on the basis of a German court ruling.”

The German legal ruling earlier this year is from the High Court in the city of Düsseldorf, stating that a 2022 attack on a synagogue in the city of Bochum was traced to the “Iranian state authorities.”

While President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian has never identified himself as a reformist nor officially belonged to any reformist faction, Western media reports have in recent days introduced him as a "reformist" or "moderate".

However, Pezeshkian has time and again announced, and proved in action, that he implements the policies set by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, including the policy of supporting the anti-Israel "Resistance Front", as demonstrated in his correspondence with the leaders of Iran's proxy groups over the past few days.

Pezeshkian said in a Wednesday message to Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh that the Islamic Republic will continue its "comprehensive support for the oppressed people of Palestine until all their aspirations and rights are realized and Al-Quds (Jerusalem) is liberated.”

He had earlier conveyed similar messages to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah.

Iran will continue to support the Axis of Resistance "with strength", Pezeshkian said in a Monday letter to Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah amid rising tensions between Lebanon and Israel. "The Islamic Republic has always supported the resistance against Israel," Pezeshkian said. "Support for the resistance is rooted in the fundamental policies of the Islamic Republic, the ideals of Imam [Khomeini], and the guidance of [Ayatollah] Khamenei, and it will continue with strength."

Nasrallah on Wednesday praised Pezeshkian for expressing his unwavering support for the Lebanese group, saying, “The Iranian president-elect confirmed that the Resistance Front is strong and solid and will continue treading on this path until victory."

The "Resistance" refers to the alliance of armed militant groups sponsored by Iran, including Hezbollah, Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Houthis in Yemen, and Iraqi Shiite militias.

Pahlavi, whose late father Mohammad Reza left Iran in the midst of an Islamic revolutionary fervor in 1979, has been living in the US ever since, advocating for political change in his homeland for at least two decades.

"The rise of radical Islam around the world can be traced directly back to the success of the Islamic Revolution in Iran," Reza Pahlavi said at the National Conservatism conference in Washington DC. “Every day we see graphic, distressing images of the consequences this regime’s expansion has brought all the way to Europe and the West... "The problem that began in Iran must be ended in Iran."

The exiled prince’s stark warning comes a week after Iran’s presidential election, in which the so-called "moderate" Masoud Pezeshkian came out on top, surprising many inside and outside Iran and raising hopes that there may be change in the horizon.

“We are seeing the fifth column of the Islamic regime rear its ugly head in the media to try to convince you that the Islamic Republic’s new president is a reformist,” Reza Pahlavi said. “He is no such thing. He is nothing but a loyalist and lackey of this regime [who] publicly wrote to the Hezbollah secretary-general, reiterating the regime’s commitment to its proxies and their terror, just this week.”

Iran’s new administration is yet to take shape, but there are reports that Abbas Araghchi, a central figure during the negotiations that led to the 2015 nuclear deal, would become the Foreign Minister. If appointed, Araghchi may embark on a charm offensive in the remaining months of the Biden administration.

Reza Pahlavi and many other critics of the Islamic Republic see any such change as ‘cosmetic,’ pointing out the fact that turnout in the latest election was below 50 percent, and that many ordinary Iranians seem to have given up on the system and would prefer to do away with it altogether.

“We are not seeking your intervention. We are not seeking your charity,” Pahlavi told the audience at the National Conservatism conference. “I am not here to ask for your permission to get rid of the Islamic Republic. Nor am I here to ask you to do it for us… The soon to be free Iran, doesn’t seek your patronage. It seeks your partnership. It doesn’t seek your funding. It seeks your friendship.”