Iran warns a quarter of Caspian Sea could dry up in 20 years

Stopping short of pledging any direct action by the Jewish state itself, Netanyahu said the Iranian theocratic system that his country was confronting would soon end.

The 3-minute speech delivered in English and posted on X came days after Israeli air strikes killed Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, capping off nearly two weeks of bombings and aerial bombardments which have decapitated the Iran-backed group's leadership.

"When Iran is finally free and that moment will come a lot sooner than people think – everything will be different," Netanyahu said.

"Our two countries, Israel and Iran, will be at peace. When that day comes, the terror network that the regime built in five continents will be bankrupt, dismantled.

Netanyahu said that there was nowhere in the Middle East beyond Israel's reach, a message underscored by Israeli air attacks in Gaza, Yemen and Lebanon over the weekend.

Both Iranian and Israeli leaders have appeared to hold off from any clear pledge of direct confrontation despite the latest uptick in violence.

The response from some in the Iranian diaspora and activist community has been positive, with many sharing Netanyahu's sentiments on Iran.

"Israel and free Iran will reunite as the great allies in the Middle East again", Iranian-American activist Nick Nikbakht posted to X.

Gazelle Sharmahd, the daughter of Jamshid Sharmahd, a German-American national of Iranian descent who was kidnapped for his activism from the United Arab Emirates in 2020 by Iranian agents, thanked the Prime Minister as the "only leader of a nation who directly addresses the people of Iran."

"We agree with everything you said EXCEPT for 1 point: Those khomeinist tyrants are NOT the “leaders of Iran”!!!!" Sharmahd posted to X.

Ellie Cohanim, a former Deputy Special Envoy to Monitor and Combat Anti-Semitism during the Donald Trump administration, told Iran International that Netanyahu's speech demonstrated that Israelis and Iranians have one foe.

“(The) historic address to speak directly to the Iranian people is meant to clearly communicate to Iranians that they and Israel share a common enemy—the Islamic Republic Regime. And also to let Iranian people know that any military events and conflict are between the Regime and Israel; and not between Israel and the Iranian people.”

This was not the Israeli Prime Minister's first time addressing the people of Iran.

During an earlier premiership he spoke directly to Iranians in a 2013 an interview with BBC Persian, saying, "I would welcome a genuine rapprochement, a genuine effort to stop the nuclear program - not a fake one. Not 'harfe pooch,'" deploying a colloquial Persian phrase meaning "empty words."

Still, he was mocked for comments he made about Iranians not being able to wear jeans in the country, which some critics said showed ignorance of the way Iranians actually live.

Israel's military has long been using the social media channel IDF Farsi to speak directly to people in Iran and circumvent authorities' censorship, gaining access to tens of millions of Iranians online.

“We wanted to build a bridge to the Iranian people," Beni Sabti, the driving force behind the account, told Iran International in a previous interview.

Ghadiani, who has been imprisoned several times since his volte-face following the nationwide protests in the aftermath of the 2009 disputed presidential election, was detained at his home on Monday, his son Ahmad announced on X. 

The young Ghadiani suggested that the arrest was a response to recent international pressures faced by the Iranian government, and that they were targeting domestic critics to deflect attention.

"They raided my father's house and took him away. His arrest is a sign of resorting to old methods. They seek to inflict upon domestic critics the blows they suffered from a foreign government,” he said, tacitly referring to Israel’s recent attacks on Tehran-backed Hezbollah and killing of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah.

Ahmad Ghadiani had previously mentioned that his father had a bag packed and ready for prison, indicating that he expected to be arrested at any time.

Receiving a 10-month jail sentence in July 2023, he said he is ready to go to prison “in Ali Khamenei’s dictatorial regime.” However, the authorities had refrained from implementing the verdict.

Ghadiani, an 80-year-old stalwart opponent of Iran's Supreme Leader, was once a fervent supporter of the Islamic Republic. However, his disillusionment began with the disputed 2009 presidential election, when Khamenei backed Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's controversial re-election. Ghadiani's subsequent imprisonment turned him into a vocal critic of the Islamic Republic.

He has written numerous articles and open letters labeling the Islamic Republic and its clerical rule beyond repair.

In a recent analysis, Ghadiani criticized the Iranian government's upcoming elections, calling them a "sham" and urging citizens to boycott them. He also accused the government of becoming increasingly authoritarian.

The remarks by Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson are the latest official comments suggesting Tehran may avoid a direct response to the attack which killed Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah and a top Iranian military commander Abbas Nilforoushan on Friday.

"There is no need to send volunteer or support forces from Iran to Gaza and Lebanon, as Lebanon and Palestine have the necessary capability to defend themselves," Iran’s Nasser Kanaani, told reporters on Monday.

"Iran will not leave any aggressive actions by the Zionist regime unanswered," he added. "Israel will not go without reprimand and punishment, and we will definitely take decisive and proportionate measures in this regard".

Israel unleashed huge air strikes on Beirut on Friday, killing Nilforoushan, Nasrallah and other senior Hezbollah leaders in the largest attack on the vast suburb from which the Iran-backed Shia militant group draws support in nearly a year of fighting.

Earlier on Friday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the United Nations General Assembly that Israel was winning in a multi-front war with Iran and could strike the Islamic Republic anywhere on its territory or the region.

Another influential Iranian hardliner emphasized Tehran's allegiance to the network of armed Islamist groups in the region like Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis but also stopped short of describing any retaliation.

"They falsely claim that the Islamic Republic has abandoned the resistance front, but resistance forces know that Iran stands behind them," Mohammad-Javad Larijani, a former top advisor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, said.

“Our patience for revenge is worth it if it leads to peace in Gaza,” Larijani told reporters on Monday.

Revolutionary Guard commanders have remained mostly silent on the issue of a military response or threats of military nature after Nasrallah's killing. Their cautious stand is unusual for the IRGC, as threatening Israel is a routine policy during most political or military gatherings.

As the keynote speaker at the "Iran Conference 2024," hosted by NUFDI, a US-based nonprofit promoting democracy and human rights in Iran, Prince Reza Pahlavi addressed several key economic challenges that any post-Islamic Republic government must confront.

The presentation began with a comparison of Iran's economy to other developing nations, both past and present. Pahlavi explained how Iran's economy has deteriorated since the inception of the clerical Islamic government and how the Islamic Republic has worsened the lives of Iranians, before outlining 10 principles for rebuilding the economy after the potential fall of the current Islamist government.

In his "Iran’s Prosperity Project" vision, while Prince Pahlavi outlined missed opportunities and the path forward, he offered little on the dominant economic role of the government and military, which have stifled private sector growth and investment.

In discussions on Iran’s economic revival, it is essential to consider the governance system and social structures shaping the current economy. Key areas for analysis should include the role of state-owned banks and companies, resource allocation, subsidies, and the impact of a state-controlled economy on social capital—factors that greatly influence the feasibility and sustainability of economic reforms.

Breaking down Pahlavi’s 10-principle plan

The ten clauses outlined by Pahlavi in this project fail to address these fundamental questions, as they overlook the elephant in the room.

The plan needs to be enhanced by clear ideas on how to finance a smaller government, and how to distribute huge potential revenues from oil and gas, once a more capable government is able to remove sanctions and expand its vital fossil fuel sector. Should the government continue to keep energy export revenues and finance development projects, or find ways to involve the private sector in a liberal economy?

Where does the national income come from, and how is it spent? How can the most pressing concerns of the Iranian people—waste, corruption, and incompetence—be effectively addressed?

The following outlines the ten principles mentioned in Pahlavi’s remarks, along with their key issues:

1. "Trusting citizens to make decisions based on their interests"

The crucial question of how remains unanswered. The most effective form of trust would involve depositing national income directly into people's pockets. How can individuals make decisions based on their own interests if they lack access to their own resources?

2. "Creating opportunities by the government for all citizens to thrive"

What does "opportunity for all" really mean? It refers to giving individuals the ability to invest directly in retirement plans, college funds, the stock market, and businesses—rather than having economic affairs controlled by state-run companies managed by government-appointed officials. With these opportunities, people would be more motivated to invest in their children's education, stocks, and retirement, fostering greater personal financial empowerment.

3. "Policies to empower individuals by fostering personal responsibility and innovation"

Individual responsibility is impossible without active participation in the economy. While innovation and responsibility are essential, they cannot be achieved without access to banking resources and national income.

4. "Respect for private property"

Genuine respect for private ownership requires enabling its practical implementation. The centralization of national resources and their revenues under government control presents a significant barrier, limiting the development of a robust private ownership framework.

5. "Market mechanisms guiding economic transactions"

Market mechanisms cannot function effectively when the state controls over 80% of the nation's resources. A key question is how this figure could be reduced to 60% or even 40%, which would require significant structural reforms.

6. "Removing barriers and fostering conditions for domestic entrepreneurs and a business-friendly environment"

Entrepreneurship is not possible if aspiring entrepreneurs cannot rely on people's accumulated capital in banks or expertise. What mechanisms could funnel capital to new enterprises?

7. "Inflation control with financial discipline and an independent central bank"

The independence of the central bank cannot be guaranteed when 80% of the economy is controlled by the state. With such dominance, the government inevitably turns the central bank into a tool for advancing its monetary policies. True independence is driven by the circulation of money within the private sector, which compels the central bank to make autonomous decisions. This independence cannot be assured merely by orders or legislation.

8. "Eliminating barriers to women's participation in the labor market"

Women cannot start small businesses without access to capital. To address the centuries of inequality resulting from unequal inheritance and low female employment, a portion of public income should be allocated directly to women.

9. "Productivity driven by enhancing human capital and adopting technology to fuel economic growth"

Productivity and human capital diminish under a large, and therefore corrupt, government. Reducing the government's and military's role in the economy leads to greater human capital development and lower levels of corruption.

10. "Rejoining the global economy and attracting foreign investment"

Government-controlled economies that retain most resources and lack a strong private sector struggle to attract foreign investors. In contrast, foreign investment flows more readily into economies with a reduced government presence and a more robust private sector.

Three major issues in Pahlavi's economic vision

Based on Pahlavi’s proposed plan, three clear conclusions emerge.

If the plan is to be implemented one day, then it is impossible with a state-controlled economy. The proposed policies can be easily ignored in practice, yet still repeatedly included in five-year economic plans without any real intention of implementing them.

Without a clear strategy to prevent the government from monopolizing resources, even a national framework risks funneling wealth into the hands of a small, insider elite—leading to corruption and the formation of mafias. Curbing this by limiting government spending through taxation offers a crucial safeguard.

Finally, if the true goal is prosperity and public welfare, revenues from national resources should be directed to individuals, rather than being funneled into the treasury. Large development projects do not need to be controlled by government bureaucracies. Although the government can offer loans financed by taxes on oil and gas exports, development projects can be funded primarily through bonds and private bank investments.

Editorial note - Opinions expressed by the author are not necessarily the views of Iran International

The assassination comes from a change of approach from Israeli intelligence which has now transformed the face of the decades-long conflict with Iran’s most powerful proxy after its top ranks have been shattered by two weeks of targeted attacks across Lebanon.

The Financial Times reported that Israel has relied on exceptional intelligence in recent months, beginning with the July 30 assassination of Fuad Shukr, a key aide to Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.

Officials told the newspaper that there had been a large-scale reorientation of Israel’s intelligence-gathering efforts on Hezbollah after the surprising failure of its far more powerful military to deliver a knockout blow against the militant group in 2006, or even to eliminate its senior leadership, including Nasrallah.

“For the next two decades, Israel’s sophisticated signals intelligence Unit 8200, and its military intelligence directorate, called Aman, mined vast amounts of data to map out the fast-growing militia in Israel’s 'northern arena,'” the paper wrote.

Speaking to Iran International, an Israeli official said that Israel is now working fast before the intervention of the US can stand in the way of its blitzing the group.

“There has to be a major amount of damage done, and quickly, before the US starts to step up pressure for a truce,” he said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

“We don’t want a repeat of Gaza where our hands are tied, limiting the success of our operations and in the end, lengthening the war.”

He said the killing of Nasrallah also marked a political change for Israel, which had in recent years acted more cautiously on the killing of the group's leader, treating him as "more like a head of state". But now, the gloves are off.

Since October 8, Hezbollah has launched over 8,000 projectiles towards Israel in allegiance with Hamas in Gaza’s atrocities of October 7. The invasion saw thousands of Iran-backed Hamas militia invade Israel killing at least 1,100 and taking over 250 hostages to Gaza, 101 of whom remain there. In Israel, 63,000 civilians have since been displaced.

Since the pager explosions which saw around 1,500 Hezbollah operatives taken out of action in Beirut, Israel has gone full force, with troops now on the ground as the country vows to create safety on its northern border in a bid to return home the residents now spread around the country.

Another Israeli official told Iran International that there is a “limited incursion” underway but did not give details beyond the fact special forces are there to dismantle key military targets in the area meant to have been demilitarized under 2006's UN Resolution 1701, a resolution Hezbollah has since continued to breach.

Speaking to the FT, Miri Eisin, a former senior intelligence officer, said Israeli intelligence had “widened its aperture to view the entirety of Hezbollah, looking beyond just its military wing to its political ambitions and growing connections with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and Nasrallah’s relationship with Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad”.

It has taken 40 years for Israel to get such an upper hand, having seen the group through this time as a “terror army”. Changing this approach, Eisin told the FT that Israel was forced to study the Iran-backed militia with the same eyes as it had the likes of the Syrian army. The Syrian war for which Hezbollah lent its troops, offered the chance to see the group in a more revealing light.

The FT said that “while Hezbollah’s fighters were battle hardened in Syria’s bloody war, the militant group’s forces had grown to keep pace with the drawn-out conflict. That recruitment also left them more vulnerable to Israeli spies placing agents or looking for would-be defectors.”

According to Randa Slim, a program director at the Middle East Institute in Washington, “Syria was the beginning of the expansion of Hezbollah …. That [war] weakened their internal control mechanisms and opened the door for infiltration on a big level.”

The war in Syria also “created a fountain of data, much of it publicly available for Israel’s spies — and their algorithms — to digest”, the report noted.

Obituaries, regularly used by Hezbollah for its martyrs, were one of those vitally revealing tools, offering insights such as where the fighter was from, where he was killed, and his circle of friends posting the news on social media. Funerals also offered the chance to draw senior leaders out of the shadows, even if briefly.

Quoting a former high-ranking Lebanese politician in Beirut, the FT said the penetration of Hezbollah by Israeli or US intelligence was “the price of their support for Assad”.

“They had to reveal themselves in Syria,” he said, where the secretive group suddenly had to stay in touch and share information with the notoriously corrupt Syrian intelligence service, or with Russian intelligence services, who were regularly monitored by the Americans.

Hezbollah blew up Shin Bet’s headquarters in Tyre not once but twice in the early years of Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon. At one point in the late 1990s, Israel realized that Hezbollah was hijacking its then-unencrypted drone broadcasts, learning about the Israel Defense Forces’ own targets and methods, according to two people familiar with the issue.

Israel’s technical expertise also saw it take advantage of the likes of spy satellites, sophisticated drones and cyber-hacking capabilities that turn mobile phones into listening devices.

Israeli news outlet Ynet said that as Israel began to close in on Hezbollah, the first military intelligence used cyber technology and electronic intelligence gathering, mostly by the IDF's 8200 unit. Then the military gathered visual intelligence that could identify precise coordinates and locations and, finally, the military's 504 unit gathered information from human sources.

Intelligence agency Mossad likely laid the foundations for the entire effort in operations, Ynet said, and the details of which will likely never be revealed as Israel has a tight 50-year non disclosure rule on security information, much of which, even is locked beyond that.

Mossad has a long history of agents on the ground in Lebanon such as the high-profile case of Erika Chambers, a Mossad operative who was one of the people behind the 1979 assassination of Ali Hassan Salameh, a high-ranking official in the Palestine Liberation Organization.

Salameh was a founding member of Black September, the militant group responsible for orchestrating the attack that killed 11 Israeli athletes at the 1972 Munich Olympics. Chambers had entered Lebanon posing as a British charity worker and lived in an apartment overlooking a car park used by Salameh. Eventually, that lookout post would see her detonate the bomb that killed him in 1979, planted on his car by another operative, before she left the country soon after.

Today, Unit 9900, which writes algorithms that sift through terabytes of visual images to find the slightest changes, has also been key, wrote the FT, its work to identify an improvised explosive device by a roadside, a vent over a tunnel or the sudden addition of a concrete reinforcement, hinting at a bunker.

The unit identifies an operative, feeding daily patterns of movements into a vast database of information, siphoned off from devices that could include family phones, or his smart car’s odometer. These can be identified from sources as disparate as a drone flying overhead, from a hacked CCTV camera feed that he happens to pass by and even from his voice captured on the microphone of a modern TV’s remote control, according to several Israeli officials speaking to the FT.

The huge bank of information has allowed Israel to take out of action the top echelons of the group and shock the world in the wake of the pager and walkie-talkie operation in which explosives were planted in the group's communications devices just 10 days before the leader of the group was killed. In between, nearly all the group’s top commanders had been hit, along with a wealth of military infrastructure.

Now, as the Lebanese militia stands in disarray and Israel continues to pound it hard so there is no room to regroup, the Jewish state is simultaneously going hard on Iran’s Yemeni proxy, the Houthis, to make sure they are clear of the consequences of trying to step into the breach.