Biden counsels Israel against bombing Iran oil facilities

The mood

On Thursday night, Khamenei's special security brigade cordoned off the entire area between Hemmat Expressway and Abbasabad Avenue, bordered by Modarres Highway to the east and Pakistan Avenue to the west, where Tehran's Mosalla (prayer ground) is located. The IRGC's sniffing dogs and anti-bomb units checked every tree and all the bushes, not to mention parked vehicles and the roads.

Iran watchers who analyzed Khamenei's speech and reviewed videos of the event largely concluded that it was staged as a show of support for Khamenei and to demonstrate Tehran’s security. The event also aimed to dispel rumors suggesting Khamenei had been hiding in a secret bunker following the death of Lebanese Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah in Beirut on September 28.

Apart from top IRGC commanders and intelligence chiefs, nearly all members of the current and previous governments were present. Notably absent were three former presidents, who are typically not invited to such events, as they are not among Khamenei’s favored figures.

Although Iranian media praised the Supreme Leader’s "bravery" for appearing at a high-profile public event despite Israeli threats, several callers to foreign-based Persian media outlets noted that both Khamenei and the public were well aware that Israel was highly unlikely to target a Friday prayer gathering.

The man

Khamenei entered the prayer area hours after everyone else, including dignitaries, military units, and organized groups like Afghan and Pakistani students from the Qom Seminary, as noted by Iran analysts.

Despite rumors that his wife had recently passed away, Khamenei showed no signs of mourning during his appearance, suggesting the rumors were likely false. Known for openly displaying emotion, as he did during the death of Qasem Soleimani, Khamenei appeared composed, standing firm and tall with a neutral expression.

Upon his arrival, he briefly acknowledged the President, the Majles Speaker, and the Judiciary Chief with nods and waves. Later, as a eulogist recited somber stories from Shia history, Khamenei showed the usual signs of his deep thoughtfulness. He called the eulogist who ran and knelt before him, and he was seen offering some advice or kind words to the eulogist.

Khamenei's defiant character was as evident as ever. He reaffirmed that any aggressive move by Israel would be met with a decisive response, neither rushed nor delayed. However, it was clear he aimed to avoid a prolonged, large-scale conflict. As one Iran analyst observed, Khamenei seems to be buying time, waiting for the outcome of the US elections before making any significant strategic decisions.

The content, foul language

There was nothing new in what he said. Everything including his hatred of Israel and the United States was consistent with the ideological master narrative that applied to everything since 1979.

Although many observers noted that Khamenei’s speech in both Persian and Arabic was tightly controlled, he couldn't resist using inflammatory language, referring to Israel as the United States' "mad dog."

Khamenei also disappointed analysts who had predicted he might announce a shift in Iran's nuclear doctrine toward weaponization or name his son as his successor during the event. His silence on these matters served as an implicit reminder that analysts are often wrong when they venture into predictions.

World vision

His world vision was also according to the master narrative. He saw himself as the leader of the Muslim world and addressed the Muslims of Lebanon and Gaza in Arabic reading out from his notes.

He defined the "Muslim world" and the axis of resistance in his own terms, stretching "from Afghanistan to Yemen, and from Iran to Lebanon." In doing so, he glossed over the Shia-Sunni divide by praising the Shiite 12 Imams at the start of his Arabic speech. Notably, he also included Afghanistan as part of the axis of resistance, despite its historical absence from this coalition. Perhaps, he hinted at something not yet publicly known.

Show of support and security

Overall, the display of support appeared highly stage-managed, with long lines of buses ready to transport the organized participants back to their headquarters. The extensive security measures would have been impressive—if today marked the end of the world.

The remarks highlight the difference between a dovish Democrat administration that has sought to tamp down on Mideast tensions and Trump who has repeatedly hit at Iran during his tenure.

Asked following Iran's biggest ever attack on Israel on Tuesday, which involved nearly 200 ballistic missiles but was largely repelled with US help, whether Israel should hit back and Iranian nuclear sites, Biden said "no."

That was “not the right answer,” Trump told Fox News.

“I mean, that’s the craziest thing I’ve ever heard. That’s the biggest risk we have. The biggest risk we have is nuclear ... Soon they’re going to have nuclear weapons. And then you’re going to have problems.”

Trump earned the ire of the Islamic Republic when he unilaterally withdrew from an international deal over Iran's nuclear program in 2018 and by ordering the assassination of one of its top commanders Qassem Soleimani in a drone strike in Baghdad in 2020.

Mostafa Salehinejad discussed the plan a day after President Masoud Pezeshkian returned from Qatar. Upon his arrival, the President announced that Tehran had reached an "understanding" with Doha regarding the $6 billion Iranian fund, which had been released last year from South Korean banks and is currently held in Qatar.

In August 2023, the US and Iran reached an agreement that led to the exchange of five detained Americans in Tehran for five Iranians imprisoned in the US. A crucial part of the deal was the transfer of $6 billion in frozen Iranian assets from South Korean banks to Qatar, allowing Iran conditional access to the funds for the purchase of non-sanctioned goods.

However, following the Hamas attack in October, the US and Qatar agreed to impose restrictions on Iran's access to these funds, halting the full disbursement but not completely freezing the assets.

Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in December that the money is accessible to Iran despite calls from Washington to withhold it. The Central Bank of Iran said earlier this year that the fund is deposited in Iran’s accounts in two Qatari banks. Pezeshkian’s remarks in Doha hinted that restrictions continue to prevent Tehran from accessing the funds.

Iran's international banking transactions are also under US sanctions, which hampers fund transfers to and from the country.

Salehinejad expressed hope that the president's visit would result in the establishment of an exchange bureau, which would significantly streamline financial transactions.

A joint exchange house could potentially help in bypassing international sanctions, allowing Iran greater access to foreign currency and enabling smoother trade operations.

“Iranian traders currently have to transfer their foreign earnings to the UAE first and then to Iran, which reduces their profits by 20%,” he said.“The main solution is the establishment of a joint bank, which does not seem feasible due to sanctions" imposed on Iran’s banking sector.

Underlining that Qatar is committed to international laws that focus on sanctions against Iran, Salehinejad said that “under these circumstances, if the outcome of the Iranian President's visit to Qatar is the establishment of this very currency exchange entity, it will be a significant achievement.”

He noted that the plan was under study during the previous Iranian administration and voiced optimism that it will be implemented under the current one.

Media in Tehran quote General Abdolfateh Ahvazian as saying that “What we are certain of at the moment is that Martyr Nasrallah’s body was not hit by shrapnel, but his ring shattered due to the intensity of the explosion's shockwave.”

However, he expressed suspicion that Israel might have also used cyanide gas in the bombs poisoning those hiding as deep as 90 feet under a six-story building in Beirut’s southern suburbs on September 28. Ahvazian added that autopsies on others who died in the bunker can shed light on whether a poisonous gas was used. The reason many have not buried yet could be a delay for such examinations, he said.

The IRGC general admitted that the sheer shockwave from the explosions would have been enough to kill people in the bunker by bursting their arteries and veins, without any shrapnel injuries.

According to Israeli media, the Hezbollah leader died a slow and painful death from toxic gas inhalation in an unventilated bunker. Lebanese authorities said Nasrallah’s body was removed intact from the blast scene on Saturday, adding that his death was caused by blunt trauma.

Source close to the Lebanese group have said that his remains are being kept at a secret site. “Hassan Nasrallah has been temporarily buried until the circumstances allow for a public funeral,” AFP quoted the unnamed source as saying.

Ahvazian also made comments about the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in late July. He argued that Israel could have killed Haniyeh in many other Sunni countries he often visited, but they decided to assassinate him in Iran, a Shia country, to sow discord among Muslims.

The double-killing of the two militant leaders considered Tehran’s allies and proxies, put political pressure on Iran to respond and avoid being seen as weak and ineffectual in the face of Israeli attacks. Tehran finally launched a large missile attack on Israel on October 1, which was in fact largely ineffective with no Israeli casualties.

Ahvazian, while condemning the “cowardly manner” in which Hassan Nasrallah was killed by Israel, stated: "Never before in history has there been an instance where nearly 85 tons of bunker-buster and anti-fortification bombs were dropped in one location, leveling six six-story buildings and sending the shockwave dozens of meters underground."

"We support efforts for a ceasefire on the condition that it would be acceptable to the Lebanese people, acceptable to the resistance, and thirdly, it would be synchronized with a ceasefire in Gaza," he said.

Araghchi's Friday visit to Lebanon comes amid heightened tensions in the region, with airstrikes hitting near Beirut's airport overnight and ongoing Israeli ground operations in southern Lebanon.

Marking his first official visit to Lebanon since assuming office, Araghchi stressed Iran's unwavering support for Hezbollah, stating that his presence in Beirut, despite the bombings, reflects this commitment. "Iran will always stand with the people of Lebanon," he tweeted.

Esmaeil Baghaei, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, also announced via Twitter that the delegation would deliver 10 tons of food and medicine as humanitarian assistance to Lebanon.

Iranian state media reported that the visit has a dual purpose: to support the Resistance—Tehran’s term for militias it backs in the region—and to preserve political and diplomatic processes. "Araghchi's visit to Beirut, following the change in government and his participation in the UN General Assembly with a firm anti-Israel stance, signals that the Islamic Republic of Iran's policy will remain steadfast, even in the face of new circumstances," Fararu wrote.

During his trip, Araghchi met with Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a close ally of Hezbollah. In meetings with Lebanese officials, Araghchi emphasized the need for global unity to prevent the region from falling into an "imposed and unwanted war," warning against the repetition of "Israel’s heinous crimes in Gaza" in Lebanon, according to Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson.

Tensions in the region have sharply escalated since September when Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant announced an expansion of military operations targeting Hezbollah in northern Israel and Lebanon. Gallant said the action was necessary for the safe return of civilians displaced by Hezbollah attacks since October 8​.

On September 17 and 18, around 1,500 Hezbollah fighters were severely injured by explosions caused by tampered pagers and walkie-talkies. This added to the growing conflict.

The situation worsened earlier this week when Iran entered the arena again to launch missile strikes on Israel in retaliation for the deaths of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian commander Abbas Nilforoushan, both killed in an Israeli airstrike in Lebanon. As tensions continue to rise, Israel has promised further retaliation, sparking fears of potential strikes on Iran’s oil or nuclear facilities.