Israel's attack on Iran may include symbols of Islamic Republic

Shots were fired at the Israeli embassy in Stockholm on Monday evening followed by two explosions near Israel's embassy in central Copenhagen in the early hours of Wednesday. No injuries were reported.

Two Swedish teenagers, aged 16 and 19, were later arrested in connection with the incidents. Authorities released no immediate details about their identities.

A Swedish police source told Iran International on Friday that they found evidence of the Islamic Republic's involvement in the incidents in its preliminary investigation into the attack on its soil.

Another source who has been briefed on the case said: "The Islamic Republic used local criminals to carry out these terrorist acts against the embassies" in the two countries.

The attacks are part of Iranian "efforts to attack tourists and Jewish and Israeli centers in Europe," added the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity citing the sensitivity of the matter.

Säpo, the Swedish security service, had publicly raised the possibility of Iranian involvement in the attacks.

Fredrik Halström, Säpo chief of operations, announced that the choice of targets and methods pointed in the direction of Iran but added this was an “assumption rather than pure knowledge”.

In May, Sweden arrested two teenage boys - aged 14 and 15 - after a shooting near the Israeli embassy. The Swedish intelligence agency at the time accused Tehran of recruiting gang members to attack Israeli interests in the Scandinavian country.

The Swedish insider speaking to Iran International said investigations revealed that the group behind the May attack was also "directed by agents linked to the Islamic Republic".

According to separate statements last year by Säpo and Mossad, the Swedish criminal group Foxtrot was among the gangs recruited by the Islamic Republic. With its Swedish leader of Kurdish origin Rawa Majid being allegedly detained in Iran, the group is now conducting sabotage operations on behalf of Tehran.

Foxtrot is believed to be one of the largest criminal organizations in Sweden and operates in other European countries as well. The gang is known for murders and large-scale drug trafficking.

The gangs are believed to be linked to Tehran through the drug smuggling activities of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Swedish MP of Iranian descent Alireza Akhondi, who is known as a vocal critic of the Islamic Republic, told The National in May.

The Swedish source added that Tehran is recruiting criminals to "carry out terrorist actions on behalf of the Islamic Republic against anyone considered an enemy."

"It allows the Islamic Republic to distance itself from terrorist acts" and portray such behavior "merely as criminal activity." However, despite the tactic, Western intelligence and security agencies have repeatedly succeeded in "directly linking the actions of criminal intermediaries to their handlers in Iran," the source said.

Alex Selsky, an advisor to the Middle East Forum and former advisor to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, told Iran International from Israel, that Iran's use of criminal networks to carry out attacks on European soil, shows Iran's determination to attack Israel in novel ways but reveals its need to pay attackers.

"I think they don't have enough of a structured operation, which might show that they don't really have such a big support. They just buy it. They buy the operation," said Selsky.

While the Islamic Republic never acknowledges the recruitment of criminals for carrying out any operations outside its borders, its leaders have often blessed attacks against Israeli interests across the world.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on Friday speaking before a vast crowd at a Friday sermon praised lone assailants targeting Israel.

"Every blow to the Zionist regime by any individual or group is a service to all of humanity."

This is not the first time such incidents have occurred near Israeli embassies in Northern European capitals.

In January, Swedish police found and detonated what they described as a dangerous object outside the Israeli embassy in Stockholm. At that time, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson described the situation as grave and pledged to increase surveillance of the Israeli embassy and Jewish institutions.

Last month, Sweden accused Tehran of hacking a messaging service to send 15,000 messages to Swedes with the aim of sowing division in society and portraying Sweden as a country hostile to Islam.

The Islamic Republic's embassy in Stockholm denied the accusations as baseless and harmful to bilateral ties.

The Washington Post also reported in September that the Islamic Republic, relying on Western criminal networks, had been planning violent actions against its opponents in the US and Europe.

These plots, which involve using criminal gangs instead of the Islamic Republic's intelligence agents, are seen as a warning to opponents of the clerical establishment.

"The Israelis have not concluded what they're going to do in terms of a strike - that's under discussion. If I were in their shoes, I'd be thinking about other alternatives than striking oil fields," Biden told reporters in the White House Briefing Room.

Biden added that the United States was in constant communication with Israeli counterparts and that Israel had yet to decide on a response, which he said was unlikely to be immediate due to the Jewish New Year holiday.

"I'm assuming, when they make their determination about how they're going to respond, we will then have a discussion ... our teams are in contact 12 hours a day".

Iran launched around 180 missiles at Israel on Tuesday, the Israeli military said. The attack was largely repulsed with US and Western help but several missiles made landfall, including on an Israeli air base and near the Mossad intelligence headquarters.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on Friday praised the missile salvo and said the Islamic Republic was prepared to repeat the assault should it be deemed necessary.

"The brilliant work of our forces just a few nights ago was also completely within their rights," Khamenei said in a hawkish sermon in Tehran with a rifle at his side.

"Any blow by any individual or group against this regime [Israel] is a service not only to the region but to all of humanity", he added.

The 85-year-old leader’s rare appearance at the Friday Prayers came amid a recent wave of assassinations of his key allies by Israel, including Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed in an air strike last week.

Israel last week invaded South Lebanon in what it said was a limited incursion aimed at rooting out the sources of rocket fire on its northern communities.

Several weeks of Israeli air strikes have killed over a 1,000 Lebanese - more than in the entire 34-day war Israel and Hezbollah last fought in 2006.

Hezbollah has vowed to keep fighting Israel in solidarity with Hamas and Palestinians in Gaza in what it describes as a divinely-ordained fight against Israeli and American oppressors.

Biden said the US was coordinating with world leaders to tamp down the escalation but cited Iran's armed allies in the region as an obstacle.

"When you have proxies as irrational as Hezbollah and the Houthis, it's a hard thing", he said, referring to the Iran-aligned Houthi group in Yemen.

The mood

On Thursday night, Khamenei's special security brigade cordoned off the entire area between Hemmat Expressway and Abbasabad Avenue, bordered by Modarres Highway to the east and Pakistan Avenue to the west, where Tehran's Mosalla (prayer ground) is located. The IRGC's sniffing dogs and anti-bomb units checked every tree and all the bushes, not to mention parked vehicles and the roads.

Iran watchers who analyzed Khamenei's speech and reviewed videos of the event largely concluded that it was staged as a show of support for Khamenei and to demonstrate Tehran’s security. The event also aimed to dispel rumors suggesting Khamenei had been hiding in a secret bunker following the death of Lebanese Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah in Beirut on September 28.

Apart from top IRGC commanders and intelligence chiefs, nearly all members of the current and previous governments were present. Notably absent were three former presidents, who are typically not invited to such events, as they are not among Khamenei’s favored figures.

Although Iranian media praised the Supreme Leader’s "bravery" for appearing at a high-profile public event despite Israeli threats, several callers to foreign-based Persian media outlets noted that both Khamenei and the public were well aware that Israel was highly unlikely to target a Friday prayer gathering.

The man

Khamenei entered the prayer area hours after everyone else, including dignitaries, military units, and organized groups like Afghan and Pakistani students from the Qom Seminary, as noted by Iran analysts.

Despite rumors that his wife had recently passed away, Khamenei showed no signs of mourning during his appearance, suggesting the rumors were likely false. Known for openly displaying emotion, as he did during the death of Qasem Soleimani, Khamenei appeared composed, standing firm and tall with a neutral expression.

Upon his arrival, he briefly acknowledged the President, the Majles Speaker, and the Judiciary Chief with nods and waves. Later, as a eulogist recited somber stories from Shia history, Khamenei showed the usual signs of his deep thoughtfulness. He called the eulogist who ran and knelt before him, and he was seen offering some advice or kind words to the eulogist.

Khamenei's defiant character was as evident as ever. He reaffirmed that any aggressive move by Israel would be met with a decisive response, neither rushed nor delayed. However, it was clear he aimed to avoid a prolonged, large-scale conflict. As one Iran analyst observed, Khamenei seems to be buying time, waiting for the outcome of the US elections before making any significant strategic decisions.

The content, foul language

There was nothing new in what he said. Everything including his hatred of Israel and the United States was consistent with the ideological master narrative that applied to everything since 1979.

Although many observers noted that Khamenei’s speech in both Persian and Arabic was tightly controlled, he couldn't resist using inflammatory language, referring to Israel as the United States' "mad dog."

Khamenei also disappointed analysts who had predicted he might announce a shift in Iran's nuclear doctrine toward weaponization or name his son as his successor during the event. His silence on these matters served as an implicit reminder that analysts are often wrong when they venture into predictions.

World vision

His world vision was also according to the master narrative. He saw himself as the leader of the Muslim world and addressed the Muslims of Lebanon and Gaza in Arabic reading out from his notes.

He defined the "Muslim world" and the axis of resistance in his own terms, stretching "from Afghanistan to Yemen, and from Iran to Lebanon." In doing so, he glossed over the Shia-Sunni divide by praising the Shiite 12 Imams at the start of his Arabic speech. Notably, he also included Afghanistan as part of the axis of resistance, despite its historical absence from this coalition. Perhaps, he hinted at something not yet publicly known.

Show of support and security

Overall, the display of support appeared highly stage-managed, with long lines of buses ready to transport the organized participants back to their headquarters. The extensive security measures would have been impressive—if today marked the end of the world.

The remarks highlight the difference between a dovish Democrat administration that has sought to tamp down on Mideast tensions and Trump who has repeatedly hit at Iran during his tenure.

Asked following Iran's biggest ever attack on Israel on Tuesday, which involved nearly 200 ballistic missiles but was largely repelled with US help, whether Israel should hit back and Iranian nuclear sites, Biden said "no."

That was “not the right answer,” Trump told Fox News.

“I mean, that’s the craziest thing I’ve ever heard. That’s the biggest risk we have. The biggest risk we have is nuclear ... Soon they’re going to have nuclear weapons. And then you’re going to have problems.”

Trump earned the ire of the Islamic Republic when he unilaterally withdrew from an international deal over Iran's nuclear program in 2018 and by ordering the assassination of one of its top commanders Qassem Soleimani in a drone strike in Baghdad in 2020.

Mostafa Salehinejad discussed the plan a day after President Masoud Pezeshkian returned from Qatar. Upon his arrival, the President announced that Tehran had reached an "understanding" with Doha regarding the $6 billion Iranian fund, which had been released last year from South Korean banks and is currently held in Qatar.

In August 2023, the US and Iran reached an agreement that led to the exchange of five detained Americans in Tehran for five Iranians imprisoned in the US. A crucial part of the deal was the transfer of $6 billion in frozen Iranian assets from South Korean banks to Qatar, allowing Iran conditional access to the funds for the purchase of non-sanctioned goods.

However, following the Hamas attack in October, the US and Qatar agreed to impose restrictions on Iran's access to these funds, halting the full disbursement but not completely freezing the assets.

Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in December that the money is accessible to Iran despite calls from Washington to withhold it. The Central Bank of Iran said earlier this year that the fund is deposited in Iran’s accounts in two Qatari banks. Pezeshkian’s remarks in Doha hinted that restrictions continue to prevent Tehran from accessing the funds.

Iran's international banking transactions are also under US sanctions, which hampers fund transfers to and from the country.

Salehinejad expressed hope that the president's visit would result in the establishment of an exchange bureau, which would significantly streamline financial transactions.

A joint exchange house could potentially help in bypassing international sanctions, allowing Iran greater access to foreign currency and enabling smoother trade operations.

“Iranian traders currently have to transfer their foreign earnings to the UAE first and then to Iran, which reduces their profits by 20%,” he said.“The main solution is the establishment of a joint bank, which does not seem feasible due to sanctions" imposed on Iran’s banking sector.

Underlining that Qatar is committed to international laws that focus on sanctions against Iran, Salehinejad said that “under these circumstances, if the outcome of the Iranian President's visit to Qatar is the establishment of this very currency exchange entity, it will be a significant achievement.”

He noted that the plan was under study during the previous Iranian administration and voiced optimism that it will be implemented under the current one.