Iran International political analyst
Iranian officials have raised the stakes, suggesting another strike on Israel. The United States has issued a stern warning against such a move, while Israel stands ready with an intensified response if it occurs. Is Tehran bluffing—or playing Russian roulette?
Ongoing confrontation with Israel—and the U.S.—carries grave risks, seemingly at odds with the Islamic Republic’s enduring commitment to survival. Iran's first Supreme Leader, Ruhollah Khomeini, declared that “preserving the system” is “the most obligatory of obligations.” For him, clerical rule was essential; without it, he argued, religion itself would perish. In this view, power is paramount, taking precedence even over religious edicts, let alone public welfare.
Khomeini’s dictum has been the cornerstone of Iran’s theocracy for four decades. It has led his successor, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, to step back from the brink before, and it may very well compel him to back off again in the weeks to come. But the voices coming out of Tehran this week say otherwise.
On October 31, the three most senior commanders of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) promised an attack on Israel. Even Khamenei’s typically reserved chief of staff joined their chorus, calling for a response that would leave the Israelis regretting their air strike. Hours later, Axios and the New York Times ran stories of an impending Iranian attack. “Likely before the US election,” one source was quoted saying.
Khamenei himself in a speech on Saturday indicted that Israel and the United States will face a harsh response to Israel’s October 26 air strikes.
It may be bluster—or another “True Promise,” the IRGC's code name for its two massive missile attacks against Israel this year. Both actions are hard to rationalize, especially the latest one on October 1, given the genuine risks involved. Decision-makers in Tehran understand their adversary isn’t just Israel, but a U.S.-backed Israel. They’re acutely aware of Iran’s struggling economy and the mounting frustration among Iranians. An all-out war could be suicidal, threatening to dismantle the very system meant to stand above all else.
Could this be a simple yet catastrophic miscalculation? Or do they possess knowledge that fuels a sense of invincibility? Perhaps they’re driven by an external influence, feeling they have no viable—or favorable—choice.
Iran and Russia have drawn ever closer in the past few years. A war in the Middle East may not be what Moscow wants, but it won’t be all bad news if an Iranian attack drags the US into yet another quagmire and divert its attention from Ukraine. An Iranian attack on Israel before November 5 could benefit Donald Trump. Leaders in Tehran may be wary of that, but Russia’s president Vladimir Putin likely doesn’t mind.
On Friday, the Pentagon ordered more bombers and warships to the Middle East, perhaps in anticipation of a new Iranian attack on Israel and a likely escalation.
In his Saturday speech, Khamenei cited “international logic” as a justification for an attack. Whether this implies aligning with shifting global power dynamics remains to be seen.
Iran’s belligerent messaging may be bluster. If it’s not—if it turns out to be yet another True Promise—then those calling the shots in Tehran may find themselves on a path they can’t back away from, one that serves Moscow’s interests more than their own.
Staring into a camera for a post on X, she pinned a mythological symbol evoking Iran's ancient glory onto her shirt and tied back her flowing hair - a symbol of female freedom in the crosshairs of hijab laws back home.
Speaking to Iran International, Gazelle described herself as being in flight or fight mode and not yet fully grasping the loss of her father, Jamshid Sharmahd.
“I'm not feeling anything. I'm just in shock,” she said.
She is haunted by questions and demands proof of her father’s death.
“How did they execute him? Was he poisoned? Did he die under torture?”
According to high-ranking German authorities the Foreign Minister of the Islamic Republic alleged that “Jimmy died” but the lawyers of his family are still awaiting verification of what really happened.
Gazelle said her father was an activist and journalist who opposed the Islamic Republic and fought them using his expertise as a software engineer to create a website where Iranians inside the country could report human rights abuses.
He created VPNs and helped secure IP addresses so they wouldn’t get tracked by the government, Gazelle said.
Authorities accused him of terrorism for allegedly orchestrating a series of deadly bomb attacks inside Iran. He had been living in the United States for the past two decades.
Gazelle and leading human rights experts have denied the charges, saying confessions at his trial were made under duress and that his activism and criticism of the Islamic Republic made him a target.
A United Nations human rights expert in 2022 described Jamshid’s detention as arbitrary, and Amnesty International referred to his trial as a sham.
Fear beyond borders
Jamshid Sharmahd's case represents the peril faced by Iranian dissidents far beyond its borders.
In 2020, journalist Ruhollah Zam, a French citizen, was executed in Iran after being lured from Paris to Iraq under the guise of working on a story.
In February 2024, US authorities charged an Iranian national allegedly operating on behalf of the Iran to kill dissidents abroad, and two Canadian men with ties to the Hells Angels biker gang were arrested in an alleged plot to carry out assassinations in Maryland.
Outspoken human rights activist Masih Alinejad was one of them.
In 2021, the FBI thwarted an alleged kidnapping plot against Alinejad and an alleged assassination attempt the following year. The FBI said both plots were linked to Iran.
Criminal gangs operating on the behest of the Islamic Republic of Iran are behind a string of terror attacks on Israeli embassies in Europe since October 7, according to Israeli and Swedish Intelligence agencies.
Abducted in real time
Jamshid was sentenced to death in 2022 for “corruption on Earth,” sparking condemnation from human rights groups and Western governments.
The 69-year-old suffered from Parkinson’s disease and grew up in Germany and spent most of his adult life raising his family in the United States. While on a layover in Dubai in 2020, he was abducted from his hotel by Iranian agents.
Gazelle said she saw the entire kidnapping unfold from her father’s google tracker.
“We could see how his taken from his hotel room to the border to Oman to the coast of Oman. And then the tracker breaks off,” she said.
The German government announced Thursday that it would close three Islamic Republic consulates in response to the execution of the dual citizen. Germany’s foreign minister called it an assassination.
In an email to Iran International, a US State Department spokesperson said the US joins Germany in condemning his execution and supports their move in shutting down Tehran's consulates.
“Sharmahd’s execution was an abhorrent act by the Iranian regime and underscores that the record pace of unjust executions in Iran continues unabated, despite Iran’s attempts to promote a gentler face to the international community.”
Gazelle said she doesn’t need kind words and condolences and feels abandoned by both governments.
She questions why the Biden administration did not include her father in a 2023 prisoner swap that freed 5 American citizens. Now, it's too late, she lamented.
As she tries to process her loss, she said she will continue to call for justice and keep up what she described as her father’s legacy.
“He never will give up and we will never give up. You cannot break a freedom fighter.”
