Iranian student strips in protest against assault by hijab enforcers

Ongoing confrontation with Israel—and the U.S.—carries grave risks, seemingly at odds with the Islamic Republic’s enduring commitment to survival. Iran's first Supreme Leader, Ruhollah Khomeini, declared that “preserving the system” is “the most obligatory of obligations.” For him, clerical rule was essential; without it, he argued, religion itself would perish. In this view, power is paramount, taking precedence even over religious edicts, let alone public welfare.

Khomeini’s dictum has been the cornerstone of Iran’s theocracy for four decades. It has led his successor, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, to step back from the brink before, and it may very well compel him to back off again in the weeks to come. But the voices coming out of Tehran this week say otherwise.

On October 31, the three most senior commanders of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) promised an attack on Israel. Even Khamenei’s typically reserved chief of staff joined their chorus, calling for a response that would leave the Israelis regretting their air strike. Hours later, Axios and the New York Times ran stories of an impending Iranian attack. “Likely before the US election,” one source was quoted saying.

Khamenei himself in a speech on Saturday indicted that Israel and the United States will face a harsh response to Israel’s October 26 air strikes.

It may be bluster—or another “True Promise,” the IRGC's code name for its two massive missile attacks against Israel this year. Both actions are hard to rationalize, especially the latest one on October 1, given the genuine risks involved. Decision-makers in Tehran understand their adversary isn’t just Israel, but a U.S.-backed Israel. They’re acutely aware of Iran’s struggling economy and the mounting frustration among Iranians. An all-out war could be suicidal, threatening to dismantle the very system meant to stand above all else.

Could this be a simple yet catastrophic miscalculation? Or do they possess knowledge that fuels a sense of invincibility? Perhaps they’re driven by an external influence, feeling they have no viable—or favorable—choice.

Iran and Russia have drawn ever closer in the past few years. A war in the Middle East may not be what Moscow wants, but it won’t be all bad news if an Iranian attack drags the US into yet another quagmire and divert its attention from Ukraine. An Iranian attack on Israel before November 5 could benefit Donald Trump. Leaders in Tehran may be wary of that, but Russia’s president Vladimir Putin likely doesn’t mind.

On Friday, the Pentagon ordered more bombers and warships to the Middle East, perhaps in anticipation of a new Iranian attack on Israel and a likely escalation.

In his Saturday speech, Khamenei cited “international logic” as a justification for an attack. Whether this implies aligning with shifting global power dynamics remains to be seen.

Iran’s belligerent messaging may be bluster. If it’s not—if it turns out to be yet another True Promise—then those calling the shots in Tehran may find themselves on a path they can’t back away from, one that serves Moscow’s interests more than their own.

Eylon Levy, the former voice of the Israeli government during the October 7 Hamas invasion, discussed Israel's latest strike in Iran, and how Iran's failed strategy is impacting the next front in this seemingly never-ending saga on Eye for Iran.

Levy, who in his previous role attended high-level meetings with Israel’s top decision-makers, has a deep understanding of Israel’s strategic planning and calculations. He viewed Israel’s October 26 counterstrike as both powerful and effective in targeting Iran’s military capabilities, yet measured in its restraint.

Levy, who with his former job attended high level meetings with leading decision

Levy noted that understanding the Islamic Republic’s strategy is challenging, as he believes the government operates with a strong influence of theological motivations.

"I don't think it's unthinkable we could end up in spiral of escalation," said Levy.

He said the proxies Iran created to combat Israel and maintain their power in the greater region has proven to be a liability for Iran's leadership.

"Because Hamas' leaders went rogue on October 7th and invaded Israel in the hopes of sparking a regional war that has now dragged Iran into it. Iran is seeing direct Israeli air strikes which would have been unthinkable a while ago."

In light of Israel's resolve and the recent setbacks to its proxies, will Iran double down on its current objectives, or choose steps toward de-escalation?

Levy stated that the next move is up to Iran, with the ball now firmly in its court. Some Israeli parliament members have noted that Israel has yet to respond to Hezbollah's drone attack on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's seaside residence last month, with some even calling for a second retaliatory strike against Iran.

However, Iran has vowed to strike back against Israel with what they describe as a painful response for the October 26th air strikes.

Current intelligence indicates that Iran may be preparing an attack on Israel in coming days, according to multiple news reports.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced Friday that the US is sending additional bomber aircraft and Navy warships to the Middle East to bolster America's presence in the region.

Levy doesn't see an end to the conflict between Iran and Israel unless the current establishment is overthrown in Iran.

As an Israeli citizen who sheltered while Iran launched nearly 200 ballistic missiles on Oct 1, he understands that Iran's direct aggression is a red line for the government of Israel.

"That's not going to become the new normal in a way that we were told rockets from Hamas and Hezbollah were," said Levy.

"Oct 1 was a red line for them and they wouldn't allow Iran's direct ballistic missiles to be new normal, that was intention of Israel's response to uphold deterrence," he added.

As the world awaits to see what Iran's next move is, Levy points out that if people take Iran's leadership by their word, then a further escalation and potential for things to get out of control, could be happening soon.

For the full episode, you can watch it on Youtube or listen to it on Spotify, Castbox, Apple, Amazon or Spotify.

“We are fully committed to preparing the Iranian nation in every necessary way to confront arrogance,” Khamenei said on Saturday, referring to the US and Israel. “Whether in terms of military readiness, weaponry, or political efforts, thank God, officials are actively engaged in these efforts.”

Iranian government-controlled media carried a uniform news item with the headline, "The United States and the Zionist regime will certainly receive a crushing response."

Since 1979, Iran's Islamic government has used the term "global arrogance" to describe the United States, conveying a meaning similar to imperialism.

Khamenei’s comments came during a speech to students on the anniversary of the 1979 attack on the US embassy in Tehran, a date remembered for the seizing of US diplomats and citizens and holding them hostage for 444 days.

Israel launched airstrikes on Iranian military targets on October 26 in response to missile attacks from Iran on October 1. Israeli airstrikes targeted missile facilities and air defense systems, resulting in the deaths of at least four Iranian soldiers and one civilian. Iranian officials have vowed to retaliate against Israel in the next few days.

“This is not merely about revenge; it is a logical movement, a confrontation aligned with religion, ethics, Sharia, and international laws. The Iranian people and the country’s officials will not show any hesitation or leniency in this regard. Be assured of this,” added Khamenei.

His words were echoed by former Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi and Khamanei’s advisor, who, in a recent interview, suggested that Iran’s military doctrine could shift if faced with an existential threat.

Kharrazi, now head of Iran’s Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, said, “We already have the technical capabilities to produce weapons; only a religious decree forbidding nuclear weapons prevents us from doing so,” referring to a ruling by Khamenei against nuclear arms.

IRGC Spokesperson Mohammad Naeini also on Saturday threatened that a firm response will be delivered to Israel’s attack.

"A decisive and firm response will be given to the new act of aggression by the enemy," he said.

"Israel's miscalculation is thinking that Iran fears direct confrontation and will leave military attacks unanswered," he added.

Israel's October 26 air strikes inflicted significant damage on Iran's air defenses and missile production facilities, the Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday, quoting American and Israeli officials. This has left the country vulnerable should it decide to launch a retaliatory attack against Israel in the coming days.

This time, Israel can operate with impunity, sending aircraft deeper into Iranian airspace and targeting nuclear facilities, additional military sites, or economic assets. An expert told the Wall Street Journal that Iran’s focus now is more on defending itself than on retaliating against Israel.

"We have exported the anti-Americanism movement so effectively that, beyond influencing Islamic societies, the resistance to imperialism and animosity toward the United States have evolved into global phenomena, even resonating within America itself," Alamolhoda, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's representative in the city of Mashhad, said during his Friday sermon.

Iranian officials have often taken pride and praised anti-Israel and anti-US protest in Western countries since the Hamas invasion of Israel in October 2023. Over the past four decades, the Islamic government has spent enormous resources to create and support groups throughout the Middle East to fight against Israel and Western influence.

The Iran hostage crisis, unfolding from 1979 to 1981, saw militants seize 66 American citizens at the US embassy in Tehran, holding 52 of them captive for 444 days. Taking place in the turbulent wake of Iran's Islamic Revolution and the collapse of the Pahlavi monarchy, the crisis left a lasting scar on US-Iranian relations, profoundly straining diplomatic ties for years to follow.

Highlighting the initial criticism of the act, even from supporters of the Islamic Revolution within Iran, Alamolhoda said, “At the time, many circles viewed this move as a profound error, claiming that we had invited misfortune upon ourselves.”

He continued, “Yet today, we are acknowledged as a formidable regional power, having not only consolidated our internal strength but also cultivated a vast network of resistance across Islamic societies.”

One of the officials criticizing the action is the controversial former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. In a June interview, he questioned, "For how much longer do we desire to remain in conflict with the US?" He lamented, "Following the revolution, there was potential to resolve matters with the US, but certain individuals occupied the embassy, complicating matters."

Also, former lawmaker and outspoken politician Ali Motahari said in 2021 that it was "an unnecessary move instigated with the provocations of leftist groups to serve the interests of the Embassy of the Soviet Union and the Tudeh Communist Party."

The findings by cybersecurity researcher Nariman Gharib and whistleblower group Lab Dookhtegan show the IRGC’s cyber unit Emennet Pasargad is carrying out a campaign to “disrupt and incite tension in the elections, particularly in swing states,” according to their joint report.

Since 2024, the group - also known as "Shahid Shoushtari" - has been actively gathering intelligence on swing states. It has reportedly sent direct messages to US Senate candidates in one of these pivotal states with the intent of disrupting the electoral process.

“This is not the first time this particular Iranian cyber group is targeting a US Presidential Election,” Gharib told Iran International on Friday.

The United States previously sanctioned Emennet Pasargad which prohibits US entities from conducting business with the group, accusing it of disinformation spread online, including interference in the 2020 presidential election

The State Department's Rewards for Justice program also offers up to $10 million for information on its activities.

Last month, the US Treasury sanctioned seven agents working for the Islamic Republic, for efforts to influence the US presidential elections in 2020 and 2024.

An IRGC member named Masoud Jalili along with six members belonging to the Emennet Pasargad cyber group -Ali Mahdavian, Fatemeh Sadeghi, Elaheh Yazdi, Seyyed Mehdi Rahimi Haji Abadi, Rahmatollah Askarizadeh, and Mohammad Hossein Abdolrahimi - were included on Washington's sanctions list.

According to Gharib, Emennet Pasargad’s new campaign focuses on "disrupting the voter registration process, contaminating voting systems, spreading rumors, creating chaos, and ultimately damaging the infrastructure of US elections."

The latest Microsoft Threat Analysis Center (MTAC) research related to the US elections released in October said Iran is gearing up for additional influence operations.

“Iranian groups tasked with targeting the US elections may make an effort—as they have in the past—to run influence operations both shortly before and soon after the election by leveraging cyber intrusions from weeks to months prior,” the report said.