Iranian officialdom struggles to make sense of Syria exodus

“We have no regrets about the costs incurred in Syria because our presence and expenses were for our own security,” said Ali Akbar Ahmadian, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, in an interview with the website of Ali Khamenei’s office.

“The Islamic Republic was never meant to fight in place of the Syrian army,” he added.

Iran is estimated to have spent between $30 billion and $50 billion over the past decade to support the now-ousted Bashar al-Assad government, including deploying troops, supplying weapons, and providing financial aid.

Sharaa, whose radical Sunni Islamist group Hayat al-Tahrir Sham (HTS) swiftly defeated Assad's forces this month said Syria's opposition had “set the Iranian project in the region back by 40 years,” signaling a major shift in Syria’s stance toward Iran.

“By removing Iranian militias and closing Syria to Iranian influence, we’ve served the region’s interests—achieving what diplomacy and external pressure could not, with minimal losses.”

Sharaa's remarks to the Saudi-owned outlet appeared aimed at placating Arab nations and rejected any notion of Syria becoming a threat to its neighbors.

“We are now focused on state-building. Syria will not be a platform to threaten or unsettle any Arab or Gulf country,” he said.“The Syrian revolution ended with the regime's fall, and we will not allow it to spread elsewhere.”

The Assad dynasty was a key Arab ally of Tehran, which had been backing its fight against HTS and other rebel groups for over a decade.

He stressed that Syria will no longer serve as a base for actions that destabilize neighboring Arab or Gulf countries, indirectly criticizing Tehran’s past involvement. He pointed to how Syria had previously been used as a platform for Iran to exert control over key Arab capitals, fuel conflicts, and destabilize the Gulf region through activities such as the trafficking of drugs like Captagon.

Iran's Islamic government has been rattled by events in Syria, where it helped keep Assad in power since anti-government protests erupted in 2011. Its exit from Syria followed defeats its other ally, Hezbollah, suffered in Lebanon.

Criticism of Iran’s Influence

Al-Sharaa criticized Assad's reliance on Iran, accusing it of undermining Arab unity. He revealed that during a meeting with Jordanian officials, the ousted Syrian government was asked why it continued exporting Captagon to Jordan.

“The response was that it would not stop unless sanctions were lifted,” Al-Sharaa said, describing such policies as damaging and counterproductive.

According to some former Iranian officials, Tehran spent around $50 billion in Syria in the past decade, where it maintained a large military presence.

Rebuilding Relations with Arab Neighbors

Al-Sharaa highlighted Syria's goal of rebuilding and strengthening relations with Arab nations based on mutual respect and non-interference.

He pointed to the Gulf's advancements, particularly Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030, as a development model Syria aims to emulate. Addressing concerns about Lebanon, he stressed Syria's commitment to balanced relations without interference in Lebanon's internal affairs, focusing instead on addressing its own domestic challenges.

Al-Sharaa emphasized the need for inclusivity in shaping Syria’s future, recognizing the diversity of opinions within the country and describing it as a natural and constructive element of society.

He highlighted his commitment to fostering national unity through adherence to the rule of law. Reflecting on the significance of holding the interview at the Presidential Palace, a site previously occupied by Assad, Al-Sharaa noted that it should be a space accessible to the people, symbolizing openness and a connection to the broader community.

The new administration’s approach, Al-Sharaa concluded, is centered on restoring Syria as a trusted member of the Arab world, free from external agendas.

"I gather there is likely to be another round of E3-EU/Iran contacts in Jan probably again in Geneva. Not yet clear if before or after Jan 20 @realDonaldTrump inauguration. #Iran #nuclear," Norman wrote.

Axios reporter Barak Ravid replied, "Before".

Iran and the E3 group—comprising the UK, France, and Germany—met in November and agreed to continue talks in the near future in an effort to resolve the deadlock over Tehran’s nuclear program. This may represent the final opportunity for a breakthrough before Donald Trump assumes the US presidency once more.

Trump, who implemented a policy of so-called maximum pressure on Iran during his first term, is set to return to the White House on January 20.

Meanwhile, Iran has agreed to stricter monitoring by the UN nuclear agency at its Fordow site after significantly accelerating uranium enrichment to near weapons-grade levels, the watchdog stated in a report seen by Reuters.

"Iran agreed to the Agency's request to increase the frequency and intensity of the implementation of safeguards measures at FFEP (Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant) and is facilitating the implementation of this strengthened safeguards approach," the International Atomic Energy Agency said in the confidential report to member states, Reuters reported earlier this month.

At Lakan prison in Rasht, political prisoners held in the Misaq Ward are in quarantine-like conditions and are isolated and poorly equipped to weather cold winter months.

The small yard, barely four square meters in size, is surrounded by tall concrete walls topped with metal mesh, offering little in the way of ventilation or natural light.

Inside, the metal beds are short and lack mattresses, forcing prisoners to either sleep hunched over or on the damp, cold cement floors.

With the arrival of winter, the situation has worsened, with inmates forced to use thin, inadequate blankets to shield themselves from low temperatures just above the freezing point.

Despite these efforts, illness—ranging from colds to more serious flu outbreaks—has become widespread, especially among prisoners with preexisting health conditions.

Some of the men in the section are middle-aged and suffer from chronic joint pain, yet they are compelled to wash with ice-cold water as the ward lacks hot water and functional heaters. Frequent power outages only exacerbate the problem, as the prison’s heating system does not have a backup power supply, leaving inmates without warmth day and night.

Prison regulations make matters worse. Clothing from families is only accepted twice a year, and the garments must meet strict standards, with hats, zippers and decorations banned.

With the onset of cold weather, the prison administration has shut down the office responsible for distributing warm clothing, declaring that it is now impossible to provide such items to the inmates.

Conditions in the women’s section of Lakan prison, where around 150 female prisoners are held, are similarly grim.

According to Forough Saminiya, a women’s rights activist and prisoner in Lakan, the women’s quarters are cramped, and the kitchen only contains a samovar, leaving prisoners with little means to feed adequately feed themselves.

The prison food is described as substandard and barely provides sufficient nutrition.

Saminiya also highlighted the exploitative nature of the prison shop, which has been monopolized by a single individual.

With over 150 regular customers, the shop charges exorbitant prices for essential goods. For those with specific dietary needs—such as Saminiya, who suffers from diabetes—the shop offers little to accommodate their conditions.

“Maintaining a proper diet in Lakan Prison is impossible,” she said, lamenting the lack of vegetables and the need to avoid starch.

Systemic Abuse in Qarchak prison

Across the country in Qarchak Prison near Tehran, the conditions for women and children have also become increasingly dire.

Jila Baniyaghoob, a journalist and women’s rights activist, reported that almost all of the prisoners have fallen ill with colds, and there is a shortage of medicine.

Sick prisoners are only given two antibiotic capsules, an inadequate remedy for the health issues. In addition, the prison’s medical facilities are under-resourced, with the number of available medical visits severely limited—only five prisoners per ward are allowed to see the doctor at a time.

Baniyaghoob also pointed out the water shortages in Qarchak, where drinking water has been cut off for several days. "Clean water has been cut off for several days. Each prison ward, with over a hundred prisoners, has only one tap of clean water, which is used for brushing teeth, washing dishes, and drinking," she said.

The heating system in the prison is unreliable, leaving inmates to endure near freezing temperatures, especially in the winter. Despite these conditions, prison authorities prevent families from providing extra clothing or necessary items for warmth.

Qarchak Prison, situated in a desert region, has long been described as a symbol of the systematic human rights violations within Iran's prison system.

In its report, the Iran Human Rights Organization recently condemned the facility as a “hell for women and children.” Originally a poultry farm, the prison has been converted into overcrowded wards that lack basic amenities, such as adequate ventilation, safe drinking water, and sufficient toilets.

Prisoners are forced to endure unsanitary conditions, with vermin including cockroaches, mice and even poisonous spiders inhabiting the cells.

The authorities’ failure to address these issues has prompted growing international concern.

Human rights organizations continue to call for accountability, urging the Iranian government to respect the basic rights of prisoners, particularly political detainees, who face disproportionate hardships in an already overburdened system.

The investigation, led by a national unit focused on terrorist financing, follows a dossier suggesting connections to groups backed by Tehran. DAT and the associated Abrar Islamic Foundation (AIF), also based in London, deny any wrongdoing.

The Charity Commission started a regulatory compliance case into DAT and AIF but paused it while law enforcement reviewed the dossier. One DAT trustee has praised a commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and described the October 7 Hamas attacks by saying Palestinians “rose up and became the master of the situation.”

The investigation comes amid wider concerns in the UK about activities tied to Iran. Intelligence officials have accused Tehran of supporting assassination attempts, kidnappings, and efforts to silence dissidents living in Britain.

Last year, the Charity Commission began investigating other Iran-linked charities in the UK, some of which hosted hardline Islamic clerics and paramilitary figures. In addition, The Times of London revealed more than six UK-based groups connected to Tehran, including organizations active in pro-Hamas rallies. British officials have voiced fears that hostile actors are using these groups to inflame tensions over the Gaza-Israel conflict.