Trump may seek deal and a new tack on Iran, analyst predicts

The site, known for containing mass graves of thousands of political prisoners executed in the summer of 1988, has been closed to the families since early 2024, the families said.

“For 11 months, Khavaran’s gates have been closed to us,” the letter read. “Despite our numerous attempts to resolve this legally, we have been met with silence or insulting behavior by officials,” they said.

In the letter, the families accused authorities of obstructing their basic right to mourn. They detailed repeated appeals to various government bodies but said they have received no meaningful response.

They said their petitions have been referred between agencies, with intelligence officials refusing to address their concerns.

The families also condemned the burial of unrelated individuals at the cemetery, calling it disrespectful and a renewal of their grief. They demanded the removal of barriers to the cemetery, the reopening of its gates and the cessation of additional burials at the site.

A total of 93 families signed the letter, which also criticized the behavior of cemetery staff. They said the individual overseeing the site, identified as Masoud Momeni, has harassed families, limited their visitation times and demanded national ID cards to grant access to graves, further compounding their suffering.

The letter was also sent to senior officials, including the judiciary, interior ministry and Tehran's local authorities, as part of their ongoing fight for justice and accountability.

The Abdorrahman Boroumand Foundation, a US-based rights group, reported that on Friday, the families once again faced locked gates at the cemetery and protested the ban by scattering flowers at its entrance.

In an interview with Iran International’s Samira Gharaei, Patrick Clawson, Director for Research at the Washington Institute described the potential impact on Iran of a widely expected renewed hard line from Washington.

Clawson anticipates a return to the so-called maximum pressure approach from Trump's first term, primarily through intensified enforcement of existing sanctions. He acknowledged, however, that logistical challenges could delay new sanctions.

"The Trump Administration is likely to start thinking from day one about what additional steps to take but it may be a while before we see them actually able to implement those kinds of steps," Clawson said.

"The Trump administration will need to prioritize enforcement, especially given competing sanctions efforts against Russia and others."

The former president’s personal feelings towards Iran— stemming from an alleged assassination plot by Tehran—could influence his approach.

Trump will seek the restoration of United Nations sanctions on Iran which were lifted by the 2015 nuclear deal, newly sworn-in secretary of state Marco Rubio told congress this week.

The newly-minted head of state whose sanctions piled pressure on Iran's oil revenue in his first term and hit Tehran's spending on armed allies in the region, also ordered a deadly drone strike on a top Iranian commander, Qassem Soleimani.

Potential Iran-US talks

Despite the potential for increased pressure, Clawson raised the possibility of renewed talks, highlighting the former president's self-perception as a dealmaker.

"Trump has a long memory, and he takes personal slights seriously," he noted. "While he might entertain the idea of a deal, Iran’s leadership, particularly Khamenei, remains deeply skeptical."

Whether Tehran is willing to engage in new talks remains uncertain as Iranian officials and media remain sharply divided on relations with Washington with Trump back in the White House.

Clawson highlighted the recent setbacks for Iran's armed allies in the region, such as Hamas and Hezbollah, as a potential motivator for seeking a deal.

"Iran’s recent failures may create an opening for diplomacy," he suggested. "However, Khamenei’s uncompromising nature often leans toward retaliation rather than reconciliation."

Regarding Israel, Clawson acknowledged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's past caution on military action against Iran but also noted a shift in the Israeli military's posture. He suggested that recent Israeli military successes might embolden them.

"Israel, with its recent military successes, is more confident than ever in confronting Iranian threats."

While acknowledging the significant changes in the region, Clawson cautioned against premature pronouncements of a "new Middle East," pointing out the region's history of unexpected developments.

"The Middle East has a remarkable ability to throw up new problems, and I would anticipate that we're going to see new problems in the region, things we hadn't expected."

Iran's nuclear program and a post-Khamenei future

Clawson expressed concern about Iran's advancing nuclear program and the potential for a more aggressive stance after Khamenei's departure.

"Khamenei’s micromanagement has kept the system intact," he said, arguing that without him, there’s a real risk of power struggles that could lead to a hardline push for a nuclear weapon.

"I suspect that in the political maneuverings in Tehran that they're going to be some people who say, 'Let's go ahead and do that bomb.' I am concerned that in what's likely to be a rather unsettled situation after Khamenei passes from the scene."

The head of Iran’s Armed Forces Judiciary emphasized earlier in the week that the Supreme Leader has forbidden the development of nuclear weapons, sounding a conciliatory note as Tehran seems to be exploring talks to ease sanctions.

The men, including Abolhassan Montazer, 65, and Akbar Daneshvarkar, 58, were convicted in October 2024 by a court in Tehran on charges of "armed rebellion against the state," or baghi.

Amnesty said the trial was “marred by allegations of torture and other ill-treatment to extract forced confessions”, with defendants denied the right to legal representation from the time of their arrest.

“These six men were convicted and sentenced to death following a sham trial that flagrantly violated their fair trial rights,” Amnesty said.

“This case is a chilling reminder of how Revolutionary Courts operate under the influence of security and intelligence bodies, imposing death sentences after grossly unfair trials,” Amnesty added.

The organization urged Iranian authorities to quash the death sentences and convictions, grant the men a fair retrial and protect them from further torture.

Amnesty has also called on the international community to push for a moratorium on executions in Iran, where it has seen a sharp rise, with at least 853 executions carried out in 2023.

According to the US-based rights group HRANA, at least 54 political prisoners, including Azizi, are currently facing execution across various prisons in Iran. Iran has faced increasing international criticism for its widespread use of the death penalty, especially against political prisoners and activists.

The United Nations human rights office reported in January that Iran in 2024 executed 901 people, including 31 women, marking a sharp rise in capital punishment cases.

Trump ended the Secret Service protection for Bolton, former secretary of state Mike Pompeo and former special envoy for Iran Brian Hook this week in place since intelligence and law enforcement officials assessed Iran sought to kill them.

"This is a very real ongoing threat," Bolton told CNN in an interview on Friday.

"I was told as recently as the weekend before the inaugural that the threat level remained the same ... neither I nor any of the other people who are receiving the protection have anything to do with establishing threat level - that comes from a consensus from the intelligence community."

Speaking later on Friday, Trump said Bolton and others deprived of their taxpayer-funded security detail could afford their own.

"They all made a lot of money they can hire their own security," Trump told reporters.

Bolton became a political antagonist of Trump's following his dismissal during the president's first term and has been a vocal critic of his former boss ever since.

"It's the sort of decision that represents the triumph of politics over national security," Bolton added.

The protection detail stemmed from perceived Iranian attempts to retaliate for Bolton and the other officials' role in Trump’s administration, where he was a key figure in the decision to assassinate Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) external arm the Qods Force in January 2020.

According to the US Justice Department, Iranian operative Shahram Poursafi attempted to pay criminals $300,000 to have Bolton killed on US soil.

Senior Iranian officials including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei have repeatedly publicly suggested those deemed responsible for Soleimani's killing would face what they described variously as revenge or retribution.

The UPR is a mechanism of the UN Human Rights Council which reviews the human rights records of all member states every 4.5 years. Iran underwent its fourth review on Friday after previous assessments in 2010, 2014, and 2019.

The United Kingdom’s representative expressed concern about Tehran's record, describing the government's "violent enforcement of mandatory dress codes, intimidation of journalists and human rights defenders, and discrimination against minority groups".

In its recommendation, the UK said Tehran needs to "guarantee fair trials for all individuals, especially those facing the death penalty", provide access to lawyers of their choice and ratify the UN Convention against Torture.

The representative also urged the Islamic Republic to "grant access to UN human rights officials, including the Special Rapporteur on Iran".

Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi described to the session what he saw as progress in the country’s human rights record.

"Substantial investments have been made to improve the lives of the Iranian people, yielding significant progress," he said.

During and after the 2022 nationwide protests, human rights groups have reported violent crackdowns on protests, arbitrary arrests, and repression of dissent, particularly targeting women.

Sweden’s representative said it was "deeply concerned about the human rights situation in the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the situation for women and girls and the widespread use of the death penalty".

They recommended that Iran "introduce a moratorium on the death penalty, including for juvenile offenders, with a view towards abolition". Sweden also called on Iran to "eliminate in law and practice all forms of systematic discrimination against women and girls" and "release all arbitrarily detained individuals".

Switzerland voiced similar concerns, urging Iran to "reduce the number of crimes punishable by the death penalty and establish a moratorium on its use, particularly for minors and drug-related offenses".

The Swiss delegation called for Iran to "disband the morality police and put an end to restrictions on women and girls". Additionally, Switzerland urged Iran to "take the necessary measures to combat discrimination against ethnic and religious minorities and remedy socio-economic inequalities in provinces populated by these minorities".

At the outset of the session, Iran's Gharibabadi said sanctions were the obstacle to the country's development and prosperity. "The people of my country are victims of aggression due to an economic assault," he stated.

Ukraine criticizes Iran’s role in Russia’s war

Ukraine singled out Iran for its support of Russia in its full-scaled invasion of Ukraine, accusing Tehran of enabling war crimes through the provision of drones and missiles.

"As long as Iranian drones and missiles continue to kill innocent civilians and destroy civilian infrastructure, Iran bears full responsibility for enabling Russia’s war crimes in Ukraine," the Ukrainian representative said.

Ukraine called on Iran to "accept all outstanding visit requests from UN special procedures without hindrance or restriction" and to align its domestic legislation with international human rights standards. The representative added that Iran’s actions were a violation of "international humanitarian and human rights laws".

Last year, Ukraine’s Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin announced a case against Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Brigadier General Abbas Mousavi Sharifi Mollasaraei for allegedly aiding Russia and committing war crimes in Ukraine.

Since late 2022, Russia has used Iranian-made Shahed-136 and 131 kamikaze drones, as well as Mohajer-6 drones, in its war in Ukraine. The Iranian government initially denied supplying drones to Russia but later said the deliveries took place before the war began.