The West is sidelining Russia, China in Iran nuclear talks, Russian envoy says

As a cyber espionage investigator focused on Iranian state-sponsored hacking, I’ve observed these operations evolve steadily—from initial reconnaissance to targeted intrusions.

Even when US agencies unmask these hackers, legal and enforcement actions often drag on for months or years, allowing adversaries to rebrand and operate under new aliases.

Yaser Balaghi Inalou, one of three Iranian hackers recently indicted by the Department of Justice for a hack and leak operation targeting the 2024 presidential election, was exposed as early as 2015 by the Israeli security firm Check Point.

Had US agencies exposed him at the time, it might have fractured his network and even disrupted the attack on Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign.

With President Trump’s second term underway and the possibility of deepened tensions between Tehran and Washington, a cohesive and decisive strategy to address this threat seems imperative.

Intelligence agencies may unmask hackers quickly. But those unmasked would regroup and evolve if legal and enforcement responses are delayed. Greater collaboration may be required between federal agencies like the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security, even with private cybersecurity firms, to ensure swift countermeasures such as targeted sanctions and asset freezes.

Also important would be rebuilding trust in US whistleblower programs. Insider intelligence from those with firsthand knowledge of Iranian cyber operations—whether from inside Iran or abroad—can be invaluable.

The current track record of the Rewards for Justice (RFJ) program discourages potential informants. Its FAQ page still highlights cases from 1995 and 2007, with no reference to payouts for whistleblowers in Iranian cyber operations.

Providing a recent example on its website or social media could restore credibility and encourage more people to come forward. As it stands, many of those engaging with the program on social media view it as more of a stunt than a serious incentive.

Public exposure of Iranian cyber operatives is another critical measure. Many operatives hide behind the guise of IT professionals. Publishing updated lists of identified operatives in English and Persian could help rid these groups of the secrecy on which they rely.

Sanctions and asset seizures also remain powerful tools. Iran’s cyber operations are largely directed by state entities like the Ministry of Intelligence and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), already designated as a terrorist organization by the US. Expanding efforts to track and freeze financial assets tied to these entities could significantly disrupt Tehran’s ability to fund its hacker networks.

The importance of swift and proportional countermeasures cannot be overstated. Delayed responses—sometimes by as much as a year—reduce deterrence and embolden threat actors.

Strengthening alliances and building a collective defense mechanism would also enhance deterrence by creating a more formidable response.

The United States relies on digital systems, from essential public services to financial networks. As the reliance grows, so does the threat posed by Iranian cyber operations, likely expanding as Tehran tries to avoid traditional military confrontation.

With the changing of the guards in Washington, new policies should be devised to protect the US digital infrastructure while holding Iran accountable for its online aggression. The implications of inaction are clear—continued vulnerability and escalating threats.

"The Islamic Republic of Iran firmly rejects and condemns this reckless threat," Iran's permanent ambassador to the UN Amir-Saeid Iravani said in a Tuesday letter to the UN Security Council.

In his letter, he cited Trump's interviews with The New York Post, in which he said he would prefer a deal with Iran to "bombing the hell out of it."

Trump also told Fox News "there are two ways to stop Tehran from developing a nuclear weapon: ‘With bombs or with a written piece of paper’."

In his letter to the Security Council, Iravani said, "The UN Security Council must not remain silent in the face of such brazen rhetoric, as normalizing the threat to use force sets a dangerous precedent and must be unequivocally condemned."

He warned that "any act of aggression will have severe consequences, for which the US will bear full responsibility."

"As a responsible member of the United Nations, committed to upholding peace, security, and international cooperation, Iran will resolutely defend its sovereignty, territorial integrity, and national interests against any hostile action."

Asked about Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's characterization of any negotiations with Washington over Tehran's disputed nuclear program as unwise, Republican Senator Rick Scott said, "I think he's foolish."

"If you look at everything he's been trying to do, it's failed," the Florida Senator said at the sidelines of a bipartisan luncheon, citing setbacks to Iran's network of militant allies in the region at the hands of Israel's US-armed military.

The 15-month campaign has put on the backfoot an array of Islamist armed factions in the occupied Palestinian territories, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen have long been funded and armed by Tehran.

Israel decapitated the leadership of Hezbollah in Lebanon and helped bring about the downfall of the Assad dynasty in Syria, Iran's oldest Arab ally.

The blows and a direct attack on Iran on Oct. 26 have left Iran weakened and brought the issue of Iran's disputed nuclear program and a deal to resolve it in greater focus.

"Clearly everybody would rather them decide not to have a nuclear weapon and stop giving money to their proxies," Scott said. "We feel sorry for the people of Iran, but they're going to have to take matters in their own hand and get a better government."

Trump has said he much prefers a deal over Iran's nuclear program over any military confrontation but reimposed harsh sanctions from his first term.

The renewal of the so-called "maximum pressure" campaign has cheered Iran hawks in Washington, mostly Republicans, who long criticized what they viewed as a permissive attitude by the Joe Biden administration on Iran.

Democrats meanwhile have struggled to mount an effective opposition to Trump's blizzard of executive orders aimed at downsizing government and reining in policy priorities they championed under Biden.

Their qualms with Trump in the foreign policy sphere have mostly focused on the planned gutting of USAID, the world's largest donor of humanitarian aid.

"Quite honestly, Iran has gotten really used to a paper tiger in the White House," Senator Kevin Cramer of North Dakota said. "They no longer have that. And I think we have to flex our muscles and then back up whatever it is we say."

Cramer told Iran International's Arash Aalaei that Khamenei's remarks ought not to shock Washington but rather bring into focus the nature of their adversary, expressing no misgivings about Trump's stated reluctance to punish Iran and preference for an agreement.

"I have no doubt that when (Trump) says he wants to sit down and negotiate, he's going to be negotiating with somebody who he's got a headlock on."

Electricity was cut off in several Tehran neighborhoods including Narmak, Tehranpars, Pasdaran, Shahrak-e Gharb and the capital's central districts due to the state's "inability to supply gas and diesel for power plants," state media reported.

According to Iran’s state electricity company Tavanir, the blackouts were caused by cold weather, increased household gas consumption, and limitations in gas supply and transmission to power plants.

The company said the outages were necessary to maintain network stability.

Iranian media reported that the power cuts also led to internet disruptions and heavy traffic congestion in some parts of the city due to malfunctioning traffic lights.

"Shortly after the power cut in Sohrevardi (a street in northeastern Tehran), slogans were being chanted in the entire alley," Iranian journalist Bahman Daroshafaei tweeted, apparently referring to anti-government slogans.

Similar outages were also reported in Karaj, a city in western Tehran.

Since November, electricity distribution companies in Tehran and other provinces have been announcing rolling blackouts for residential and commercial areas as a government strategy to conserve fuel and reduce reliance on mazut, a pollutant-heavy oil, as power plants struggle to meet demand.

Iran’s energy infrastructure is grappling with one of its most challenging winters. Facing a critical natural gas shortage, President Masoud Pezeshkian’s administration has prioritized avoiding the widespread burning of mazut, or high-sulfur fuel oil, as a substitute at major power plants in cities like Arak, Isfahan, and Karaj.

With around 80% of Iran’s electricity derived from thermal power plants reliant on gas, the administration faces mounting pressure to address systemic fuel shortages.

Iran’s winter energy crisis highlighted the country’s reliance on emergency measures, as officials grapple with a resource shortage exacerbated by decades of underinvestment. With blackouts set to continue, questions over energy policy and sustainability linger.

Investigators have connected two middle-aged sisters to the operation, which is thought to involve the unlawful sale of infants procured from impoverished or drug-dependent families who are distributed to those unable to conceive.

Child trafficking in Iran, although relatively infrequent, may point to deepening poverty and a fraying social safety net.

As reported by Rouydad 24 website, the discovery of the case occurred after informants supplied police information regarding the network's operations, culminating in the arrest of a person in Mashhad who had purchased a one-year-old girl.

The child's mother, a 23-year-old woman struggling with addiction, was also detained. She explained to the authorities that her decision to sell her daughter came from a place of desperation.

"My husband is a homeless addict, and I don’t know where he is. I wasn’t in a good state," she was quoted as saying. "I went to a woman’s house, and she, acting as an intermediary, sold my daughter to another woman. They gave me 600 million rials (about $650)."

After reconsidering, the mother attempted to reclaim her child but was met with threats from the buyer, who demanded 800 million rials (about $850).

Further investigation linked the ringleader, one of the arrested sisters, to similar trafficking schemes in other cities across the country. She said she purchased the child from the addicted mother for 600 million rials and sold the girl to a childless woman who had undergone multiple failed treatments.

While local authorities have arrested several suspects, authorities believe the trafficking ring may be part of a larger network operating throughout the country, triggering a broader investigation into the sale of babies in other cities.

The case adds to a growing body of evidence pointing to the abuse of vulnerable families, in particular those living with poverty and addiction.